2024 Early Schedule Difficulty

[Argonut]

2000-2023 D2 Champion Profile Stats

I decided to go back through 2000 to see if the D2 champions stats were as consistent as the last 7 years of champions. They were and all stats are season per game stats except for TO and sack margins and total sacks, which are season totals.

I have listed every champion with exception of 2001 North Dakota and 2004 Valdosta for which stats were not posted anywhere I could find on web. The averages don’t include these two teams.

The listing order is team/Offense Points/Defense Points/Offense Yards/Defense Yards/Penalty Yards/Turnover margin/Sack margin/Total sacks.

2016-2023 D2 Champions averages:

Champ/ 42 / 16 / 464 / 284 / 72 / +5 / +27 / 44

2000-2023 D2 Champions averages:

Champ/ 41 / 16 / 452 / 288 / 64 / +13 / +28 / 46

2023-2000 Champions

Harding/ 46 / 11 / 458 / 246 / 42 / +18 / +40 / 42

Ferris St/ 35 / 14 / 427 / 228 / 79 / -14 / +42 / 66

Ferris St/ 47 / 18 / 512 / 275 / 94 / -5 / +15 / 30

West FL/ 36 / 20 / 411 / 355 / 59 / +16 / +15 / 36

Valdosta/ 52 / 22 / 523 / 343 / 80 / +9 / +27 / 46

TAMUC/ 37 / 16 / 447 / 303 / 89 / +3 / +17 / 44

NWMST/ 45 / 12 / 471 / 240 / 62 / +7 / +35 / 47

NWMST/ 41 / 12 / 440 / 224 / 51 / +19 / +36 / 60

Pueblo/ 37 / 14 / 419 / 294 / 56 / +24 / +30 / 47

NWMST/ 45 / 17 / 480 / 292 / 53 / +16 / +31 / 49

Valdosta/ 41 / 20 / 470 / 354 / 76 / +18 / +13 / 36

Pitt.St./ 40 / 20 / 448 / 309 / 52 / +10 / +31 / 41

Duluth/ 40 / 13 / 430 / 260 / 41 / +18 / +17 / 33

NWMST/ 42 / 19 / 475 / 320 / 66 / +15 / +22 / 48

Duluth/ 41 / 12 / 445 / 235 / 52 / +23 / +33 / 49

Valdosta/ 39 / 18 / 413 / 326 / 72 / +20 / +18 / 38

GrandV/ 35 / 15 / 391 / 300 / 49 / +15 / +30 / 53

GrandV/ 33 / 12 / 431 / 264 / 64 / +10 / +31 / 43

Valdosta/ No stats posted

GrandV/ 37 / 13 / 439 / 269 / 68 / +21 / +25 / 44

GrandV/ 46 / 17 / 486 / 283 / 75 / +16 / +27 / 49

North Dakota/ No stats posted

DeltaSt/ 40 / 22 / 478 / 329 / 71 / +12 / +47 / 64

[Argonut]

2023-2000 Mud-Stomping Champions List

I looked at the early schedules of all of the D2 Champions and calculated their early schedule point values to see if there were any changes from the data of the last 7 years and there was some slight changes. The distribution of the early schedule point values is below and 2 teams have won the title with a point value of 14, but the great majority of titles have been won with lower point values (easier opening schedules). Four teams lost their opener (West Fla., Valdosta (2) and NW Mo. St.) and still won the title and two teams only Mud-Stomped one of their first three opponents and won the other two games by 1-2 scores (Grand Valley and North Dakota). In the end, the general rule of point value of 13 and below and Mud-Stomping 2 of 3 of first three opponents by the stats in the prior post will still point to the D2 Champion for that year.


Point Value Distribution 2023-2000

14- 2 teams
13- 3
12- 5
11- 3
10- 5
9- 5

2023 Harding (9): beat So. Nazarene (6-5) 53-20; beat Okla. Bapt. (6-5) 49-10; beat Ark.-Mont. (2-9) 59-19

2022 Ferris (9): beat C. Wash. (6-4) 36-20; beat L-R (8-3) 27-5; beat Waldorf (7-4) 69-8

2021 Ferris (13): beat Findlay (7-4) 54-14; beat Ashland (10-2) 45-19; beat Saginaw Valley (8-3) 47-45 (OT)

2019 W. Fla. (10): lost C-N (9-3) 13-20; beat Shorter (1-10) 42-14; beat Va. Lynchburg (2-7) 69-0

2018 Valdosta (12): beat Albany St. (7-4) 45-14; beat Ft. Valley (2-8) 55-6; beat No. Ala. (8-4) 58-14

2017 Commerce (10): beat No.Ala. (5-5) 8-7; beat Wm. Jewell (2-9) 59-6; beat E. New Mexico (8-2) 51-22

2016 NW Mo.St. (12): beat Emporia (11-2) 41-14; beat Washburn (7-5) 41-7; beat Neb.-Kearney (1-10) 52-14

2015 NW Mo.St. (10): beat Neb.-Kearney (0-11) 31-0; beat Mo. Southern (1-10) 48-7; beat Central Mo. (8-3) 34-20

2014 Pueblo (14): beat W. Texas AM (6-5) 35-6; beat Sam Houston (11-5) 47-21; beat Western Colo. (4-7) 26-23

2013 NW Mo.St. (12): beat Saginaw Valley (9-3) 45-24; beat Ft. Hays (6-5) 49-14; beat Central Mo. (6-4) 28-24

2012 Valdosta (13): lost Saginaw Valley (8-3) 24-28; beat Ft. Valley (8-4) 62-14; beat Angelo St. (5-6) 43-10

2011 Pitt. St. (12): beat Mo. Western (9-3) 34-7; beat Emporia (5-6) 38-14; beat Truman St. (4-7) 27-26

2010 Duluth (11): beat C.Wash. (8-3) 35-10; beat Upper Iowa (2-9) 62-13; beat Wayne St. (N) 42-10

2009 NW Mo.St. (13): lost Abilene Christian (9-4) 14-19; beat SW Baptist (6-5) 49-14; beat Pitt.St. (5-6) 30-10

2008 Duluth (10): beat Concordia (4-7) 40-0; beat Mo. Western (6-6) 47-18; beat SW Minn.St. (6-5) 43-21

2007 Valdosta (14): beat Albany St. (8-3) 41-3; beat Ft. Valley (8-3) 69-0; beat Ark. Tech. (5-5) 28-27

2006 Grand V. (11): beat Findlay (2-9) 13-0; beat Ashland (4-6) 30-24; beat St. Joseph's (8-3) 31-6

2005 Grand V. (9): beat Ferris (4-7) 30-10; beat Gannon (3-8) 61-10; beat Indy (7-4) 29-13

2004 Valdosta (12): lost Albany St. (11-1) 22-24; beat Ouachita Bapt. (2-7) 40-19; beat Harding (6-5) 32-19

2003 Grand V. (9): beat UC Davis (6-4) 9-6; beat Ferris (6-5) 40-10; beat Wayne St. (M) (3-8) 50-14

2002 Grand V. (10): beat UC Davis (9-3) 24-17; beat Wayne St. (M) (3-8) 49-14; beat Hillsdale (4-7) 44-19

2001 No. Dakota (9): beat C. Wash. (4-7) 17-10; beat Minn.-Crookston (4-7) 57-6; beat No. Colo. (7-4) 13-7

2000 Delta St. (11): beat Bellhaven (5-5) 55-18; beat Miss. Valley (2-9) 35-23; beat West Ala. (3-8) 33-8

[Argonut]

Five teams are holding up the calculation of the last four conference rankings for 2024. It looks like the SIAC has a good chance to squeak by the LSC for hardest opening schedule for 2024, but won’t know for sure until the holdouts post their schedule.

The five teams holding things up are Roosevelt (GLIAC), Central State and Morehouse (SIAC), Bluefield State (CIAA) and Southern Connecticut (NE10).

[Finchwidget]

Five teams are holding up the calculation of the last four conference rankings for 2024. It looks like the SIAC has a good chance to squeak by the LSC for hardest opening schedule for 2024, but won’t know for sure until the holdouts post their schedule.

The five teams holding things up are Roosevelt (GLIAC), Central State and Morehouse (SIAC), Bluefield State (CIAA) and Southern Connecticut (NE10).

They may not have their schedules posted on their websites yet, but Roosevelt, Morehouse, and Bluefield State have released their full schedules on their respective Twitter accounts if that helps

https://twitter.com/RULAKERFB/status...50221741674518

https://x.com/MorehouseFB/status/1782797295303442588

https://x.com/bstatesports/status/1800924754775560571

[Turbonium]

Is there any data that playing better teams leads to more injuries? Or is this just entirely an assumption? Non contact injuries are often the longer term injuries regarding missed time and they don't care who the opponent is. Some teams have luck on their side some seasons, others end up with guys tearing ligaments in freak accidents testing their 40 times. I can't say I've ever noticed more injuries occur to teams I've followed against those opponents that would be considered more talented.

[KleShreen]

Is there any data that playing better teams leads to more injuries? Or is this just entirely an assumption? Non contact injuries are often the longer term injuries regarding missed time and they don't care who the opponent is. Some teams have luck on their side some seasons, others end up with guys tearing ligaments in freak accidents testing their 40 times. I can't say I've ever noticed more injuries occur to teams I've followed against those opponents that would be considered more talented.

Division II teams aren't obligated to release any kind of injury information, so there's likely not any data on it.

[Turbonium]

Division II teams aren't obligated to release any kind of injury information, so there's likely not any data on it.

Wouldn't need to be D2 specific, any level of college football (if injury info is provided) could be assessed. I don't care near enough to do the research on it, it just doesnt seem to be factual based on my experiences around CFB.

[Argonut]

They may not have their schedules posted on their websites yet, but Roosevelt, Morehouse, and Bluefield State have released their full schedules on their respective Twitter accounts if that helps

https://twitter.com/RULAKERFB/status...50221741674518

https://x.com/MorehouseFB/status/1782797295303442588

https://x.com/bstatesports/status/1800924754775560571

Thanks for the assist. I was able to complete all of the teams early schedule point values and the conference averages for 2024. The SIAC moves into the top spot and there is a lot of reshuffling from last year’s order.

The GSC drops from the top spot to nearly the bottom and the MIAA moves way up after allowing OOC games this year. Overall D2 teams are scheduling harder in first three games this year compared to last year.

[Argonut]

This is list of 2000-2023 title game early schedule difficulty values results. The teams with lower (easier) values won the title game 13 times with harder schedule teams winning 7 times and teams with same numbers involved in 3 games.

The won/loss records of all teams in the playoffs from 2016-2023 find the lower (easier) values winning 91 games with harder schedule teams winning 79 games and teams with same numbers involved in 19 games.

It appears than having an easier opening schedule is more of an advantage in the title game (nearly double the wins) for the champions and if you combine this data with the stats of their mudstomping at least two of their first three opponents I believe it points to a few reasons for these early schedule statistics.

1) The champions have talented and experienced coaches and players who have been running the same defensive and offensive systems for years, which explains, in part, how their offense and defense are running at peak efficiency from the opening kickoff of the first game.

2) Their early mudstomping means that the starters are out early in first three games thereby reducing the chances of injury to key players.

3) Likewise, the backups are gaining crucial game experience that could play a big part later in the season if a starter is out short or long term.

4) The snowball confidence effect for entire team when you start hot.

5) The prime example of Grand Valley last year who had a high (hard) early schedule value of 16 and was missing multiple key starters to injury when the playoffs began. The. Lakers won a couple of close playoff games before losing another close game to a team that had a much easier start to the season.

6) What is also noticeable in this title game list is that there are very few teams with a hard start value of 14 or higher. (only 8 and they went 2-6 in title game)

2000-2023 Title Game Early Schedule Values

2023 Harding (9) beat Mines (12)
2022 Ferris St. (9) beat Mines (14)
2021 Ferris St. (13) beat Valdosta (13)
2019 West Fla. (10) beat Mankato (12)
2018 Valdosta (12) beat Ferris St. (9)
2017 Commerce (10) beat West. Fla. (11)
2016 NWMo.St. (12) beat No. Ala. (16)
2015 NWMo.St. (10) beat Shepherd (11)
2014 Pueblo (14) beat Mankato (8)
2013 NWMo.St. (12) beat L-R (14)
2012 Valdosta (13) beat Winston-Salem (9)
2011 Pitt. St. (12) beat Wayne St. (10)
2010 Duluth (11) beat Delta St. (15)
2009 NWMo.St. (13) beat Grand Valley (14)
2008 Duluth (10) beat NWMo.St. (11)
2007 Valdosta (14) beat NWMo.St. (14)
2006 Grand Valley (11) beat NWMo.St. (11)
2005 Grand Valley (9) beat NWMo.St. (11)
2004 Valdosta (12) beat Pitt. St. (8)
2003 Grand Valley (9) beat No. Dakota (10)
2002 Grand Valley (10) beat Valdosta (9)
2001 No. Dakota (9) beat Grand Valley (11)
2000 Delta St. (11) beat Bloomsburg (10)

[Argonut]

Lindy’s 2024 Preseason Top 25 with Early Schedule Difficulty Values, Mudstomping Candidates and Unlikely Title Chances

Parentheses denote Early Schedule Difficulty Value

# denotes unlikely title due to high (hard) early schedule

$ denotes Mudstomping candidate and possible title based on Early Schedule metrics

1, Harding (10) $
2. Central Mo. (11) $
3. Pitt. St. (13)
4. Ferris St. (12)
5. Valdosta St. (10)
6. Colo. Mines (9) $
7. Grand Valley (9) $
8. Central Wash. (14) #
9. Kutztown (9)
10. Slippery Rock (14) #
11. Mankato (15) #
12. L-R (13)
13. West Fla. (12)
14. Va. Union (15) #
15. Indy (11)
16. Western Colo. (8)
17. Ouachita Baptist (10) $
18. Augustana (14) #
19. Permian Basin (9) $
20. Duluth (10)
21. Charleston (11) $
22. Henderson St. (9)
23. NW Mo. St. (12)
24. Delta St. (12) $
25. Benedict (9) $

[Argonut]

2024 Mudstomping List D2 Top 25 (9-2-24)

D2 poll with early schedule difficulty value in parentheses and # for teams that meet mudstomping criteria. (ESD value 13 or less and beating 2 of 3 first three opponents by at least 20 in 2023 or first game of 2024)

All but 3 D2 champions since 2000 have met the Mudstomping criteria in their first three games of season.

1. Harding (10), 1-0 #
2. Central Mo. (11), 0-0
3. Pitt. St. (13), 1-0 #
4. Grand Valley (9), 1-0 #
5. Valdosta St. (10), 1-0 #
6. Colo. Mines (9), 1-0 #
7. Central Wash. (14), 0-0
8. Mankato (15), 1-0
9. Ferris St. (12), 0-1
10. Kutztown (9), 1-0
11. Slippery Rock (14), 0-0
12. Delta State (12), 1-0 #
13. L-R (13), 0-0 #
14. West Fla. (12), 1-0 #
15. Permian Basin (9), 1-0 #
16. Indy (11), 0-0 #
17. Ouachita (10), 1-0 #
18. Va. Union (15), 1-0
19. Western Colo. (8), 0-0
20. Bemidji St. (11), 1-0 #
21. Augustana (14), 1-0
22. Henderson St. (9), 1-0
23. Minn.-Duluth (10), 1-0 #
24. Ft. Hays (13), 1-0
25. Charleston (11), 1-0 #

[Argonut]

Week 2 Mudstomping D2 Poll (9-9-24)

This is week 2 D2 poll with early schedule difficulty values in parentheses, 2024 record, and scores of first two games.

The only team that has satisfied the Mudstomping criteria of ESD of 13 or below and beating at least 2 of first three opponents by 20 or more is Delta State, which is denoted by #. There are many in top 25 on verge of meeting this criteria this week and some who are already excluded due to high ESD value or not mudstomping at least one of their first two opponents.

1. Harding (10), 1-0; 59-0
2. Central Mo. (11), 1-0; 63-21
3. Pitt. St. (13), 2-0; 19-3, 42-17
4. Grand Valley (9), 1-0; 58-0
5. Valdosta St. (10), 2-0; 42-10, 27-14
6. Colo. Mines (9), 1-0; 41-13
7. Mankato (15), 36-22, 31-29
8. Ferris St. (12), 1-1; 3-19, 56-3
9. Kutztown (9), 1-0; 34-6
10. Central Wash. (14), 0-1; 7-26
11. Slippery Rock (14), 1-0; 22-7
12. Delta St. (12), 2-0; 47-16, 55-18 #
13. L-R (13), 1-0; 32-19
14. West Fla. (12), 1-0; 38-6
15. Indy (11), 1-0; 42-16
16. Western Colo. (8), 1-0; 38-33
17. Ouachita Baptist (10), 1-0; 42-3
18. Augustana (14), 1-0; 35-13
19. Henderson St. (9), 1-0; 41-17
20. Minn.-Duluth (10), 1-0; 35-7
21. Ft. Hays (13), 2-0; 21-7, 30-16
22. Va. Union (15), 1-1; 69-7, 21-33
23. Bemidji St. (11), 1-1; 19-13, 29-31
24. Charleston (11), 2-0; 38-7, 23-19
25. CSU-Pueblo (14), 2-0; 35-6, 40-23

[Argonut]

Week 3 D2 Poll Mudstomping Candidates

Week 3 has 5 teams satisfying the D2 champions mudstomping criteria for early schedule performance. The criteria are an early schedule difficulty of 13 or less and beating at least 2 of first three opponents by 20 points or more. All but 3 of the D2 champions since 2000 have met this early season criteria and they all have also averaged 40+ points per game.

The early schedule difficulty value is in parentheses followed by season record, scores of games and # for those that meet mudstomping criteria.

1. Harding (10), 2-0; 59-0, 59-7 #
2. Grand Valley (9), 2-0; 58-0, 24-21
3. Valdosta St. (10), 3-0; 42-10, 27-14, 34-0 #
4. Mankato (15), 3-0; 36-22, 31-29, 35-28
5. Colo. Mines (14), 2-0; 41-13, 31-28
6. Pitt. St. (13), 2-1; 19-3, 42-17, 21-24
7. Ferris St. (12), 2-1; 3-19, 56-3, 43-3 #
8. Kutztown (9), 2-0; 24-6, 26-0
9. Central Wash. (14), 1-1; 7-26, 28-12
10. Slippery Rock (14), 2-0; 22-7, 20-10
11. Central Mo. (11), 1-1; 63-21, 40-57
12. L-R (13), 2-0; 32-19, 38-17
13. West Fla. (12), 1-0; 38-6
14. Western Colo. (8), 2-0; 38-33, 26-17
15. Indy (11), 2-0; 42-16, 41-34
16. Ouachita (10), 2-0; 42-3, 56-2 #
17. Henderson St. (9), 2-0; 41-17, 34-17
18. Emporia St. (12), 3-0; 30-14, 17-12, 24-21
19. Augustana (14), 1-1; 35-13, 3-24
20. Va. Union (15), 1-1; 69-7, 21-33
21. Bemidji St. (11), 2-1; 19-13, 29-31, 33-0
22, Charleston (11), 2-0; 38-7, 23-19
23. Wingate (14), 2-0; 17-12, 21-7
24. Delta St. (12), 2-1; 47-16, 55-18, 7-21 #
25. Central Okla. (9), 2-0; 72-0, 57-40

[Argonut]

This is week 4 records of the 29 teams with highest early schedule difficulty for 2024. Only 2 are unbeaten with 8 having winning record. On the other side of the coin 11 are winless and 21 of 29 have losing records to start the season.

With rare exception a hard start leads to early carnage for your season that is hard to recover from and even harder to make the playoffs.

ESD Point Value 18

Edinboro: 1-3
Lane: 1-2
Western Ore.: 1-2

ESD PV 17

Kentucky St.: 0-4

ESD PV 16

Central St.: 1-3
Franklin Pierce: 0-3

ESD PV 15

Mankato: 4-0
Savannah St.: 1-2
Virginia St.: 1-2
Virginia Union: 1-2
West Tx. A & M: 1-3
Mars Hill: 0-2
Morehouse: 0-3
Pembroke: 0-3
Washburn: 0-3
Wayne St. (Mich.): 0-3
Edward Waters: 1-4

ESD PV 14

Slippery Rock: 3-0
Pueblo: 3-1
Winston-Salem: 3-1
Augustana: 2-1
Calif. (PA): 2-1
Central Wash.: 2-1
Wingate: 2-1
Colo. Mesa: 1-2
Adams St.: 0-3
Gannon: 0-3
Truman St.: 0-3
Missouri So.: 0-4

[Argonut]

Week 4 D2 Poll (9-23-24) Mudstompers

Week 4 has all but one team (West Fla.) having played first three games to see if they meet the mudstomping criteria of all but 3 of last 24 D2 champions. That criteria is an early schedule difficulty value of 13 or less and beating at least 2 of first three opponents by 20 or more.

The last 24 D2 champions also averaged 40 points or more for the season as an additional distinguishing factor. The # denotes the teams meeting the criteria and of this group Harding is the only team that pounded all three of its first three opponents.

The number in parentheses is the early schedule difficulty value, the record in parentheses is the first three game record followed by the total record and scores of first 2-3 games. Three teams in last 24 did win title with ESD value of higher than 13, so Augustana is theoretically still in the hunt.

For context, an ESD of 11-12 is average. Anything above is a harder than average start to season and anything below is an easier start.

# 1) Harding (10) (3-0): 59-0, 59-7, 63-3
2) Grand Valley (9) (3-0): 58-0, 24-21, 20-13
# 3) Valdosta (10) (3-0) 4-0: 42-10, 27-14, 34-0
4) Mankato (15) (3-0) 4-0: 36-22, 31-29, 35-28
5) Pitt.St. (13) (2-1) 3-1: 19-3, 42-17, 21-24
# 6) Ferris St. (12) (2-1): 3-19, 56-3, 43-3
7) Colo. Mines (9) (3-0): 41-13, 31-28, 13-12
# 8) Kutztown (9) (3-0): 24-6, 26-0, 37-14
9) Central Wash. (14) (2-1): 7-26, 28-12, 45-3
10) Slippery Rock (14) (3-0): 22-7, 20-10, 33-7
11) Central Mo. (11) (2-1): 63-2, 40-57, 32-31
12) L-R (13) (3-0): 32-19, 38-17, 29-21
13) Western Colo. (8) (3-0): 38-33, 26-17, 38-0
# 14) Indy (11) (3-0): 42-16, 41-34, 30-6
15) Emporia St. (12) (3-0) 4-0: 30-14, 17-12, 24-21
# 16) Ouachita (10) (3-0): 42-3, 56-2, 25-20
17) Henderson St. (9) (3-0): 41-17, 34-17, 27-12
18) West Ala. (12) (3-0) 4-0: 16-15, 45-9, 33-14
# 19) Augustana (14) (2-1): 35-13, 3-24, 41-7
20) West Fla. (12) (1-1): 38-6, 33-35
21) Bemidji St. (11) (2-1) 3-1: 19-13, 29-31, 33-0
# 22) Charleston (11) (3-0): 38-7, 23-19, 58-36
23) Central Okla. (9) (3-0): 72-0, 57-40, 32-17
24) Pueblo (14) (2-1) 3-1: 35-6, 40-23, 21-24
# 25) C-N (3-0): 50-7, 56-25, 31-28