Thoughts on RR SR1 after 5 weeks

[Ram040506]

Little more than a 1/3rd of the way through the season, thought would be a good time to assess an early playoff picture.

Undefeated

Slippery Rock 4-0- Key wins over NE-10 annual favorite New Haven and PSAC east contender Shepherd.
Kutztown 4-0- Key win over NE10 contender Assumption and PSAC east contender ESU.
IUP 4-0- Key win on the road against GMAC contender Ashland. LH could end up being a good W as well.
Charleston 4-0- Key win against PSAC West contender California.
Frostburg State 3-0 (4-0 FCS win)- No key wins, schedule very weak thus far.
Findlay 4-0- No key wins, schedule also very weak thus far.

1 loss group

Thomas Moore 3-1- Loss to 3-1 Davenport from GLIAC
Northwood 3-1- Loss to 2-2 Tiffin
Shepherd 3-1- Loss to 4-0 Slippery Rock
East Stroudsburg 3-1- Loss to 4-0 Kutztown
California 3-1- Loss to 4-0 Charleston
Bloomsburg 3-1- Loss to 2-2 Seton Hill
New Haven 3-1- Loss to 4-0 Slippery Rock
Bentley 3-1- Loss to 3-1 New Haven
Assumption 2-1- Loss to 4-0 Kutztown
West Virginia State 3-1- Loss to 4-0 Carson Newman

Ashland lurks at 2-2 from the GMAC. SOS is going to be great come end of the season with IUP/Ferris on pace for solid years. They could run the table similar to last year in the GMAC.

Inkblot has a nice site that organizes/sums up the SOS for the whole region- https://inkblotsports.com/d2stats/2425/mfb/sr1.html

Current standings using Inkblot's data:

1. Slippery Rock 4-0
2. Kutztown 4-0
3. IUP 4-0
4. Charleston 4-0
5. New Haven 3-1
6. Findlay 4-0
7. Thomas Moore 3-1
8. Shepherd 3-1
9. Bentley 3-1
10. Northwood 3-1
11. California 3-1
12. West Virginia State 3-1

Frostburg is at 13, their SOS is pretty poor thus far.

[Ram040506]

My early prediction for how it shakes out ultimately:

1. Kutztown 11-0 beats Rock in the PSAC championship and takes the overall top seed.
2. Charleston 11-0 Their win against California helps with SOS and they go undefeated and MEC champs
3. Slippery Rock 10-1 They win the PSAC west but lose to Kutztown in the PSAC title game.
4. New Haven 9-1 Runs the table and wins the NE10
5. IUP 10-1- I see them losing to Rock but beating California.
6. East Stroudsburg 10-1- Only loss to Kutztown
7. Ashland 9-2 runs the table in the GMAC and gets EA over Frostburg State

8. Frostburg State 10-1 - SOS is terrible, they get bumped for the GMAC champ.

5-6-7 are not actually ranked in the RR so first round matchups end up like this:

ESU @ Charleston
Ashland @ Slippery Rock
IUP @ New Haven
Kutztown gets the bye.

[IUPbigINDIANS]

Look back on this in two weeks and see how you did.

[ESU Warrior]

My early prediction for how it shakes out ultimately:

1. Kutztown 11-0 beats Rock in the PSAC championship and takes the overall top seed.
2. Charleston 11-0 Their win against California helps with SOS and they go undefeated and MEC champs
3. Slippery Rock 10-1 They win the PSAC west but lose to Kutztown in the PSAC title game.
4. New Haven 9-1 Runs the table and wins the NE10
5. IUP 10-1- I see them losing to Rock but beating California.
6. East Stroudsburg 10-1- Only loss to Kutztown
7. Ashland 9-2 runs the table in the GMAC and gets EA over Frostburg State

8. Frostburg State 10-1 - SOS is terrible, they get bumped for the GMAC champ.

5-6-7 are not actually ranked in the RR so first round matchups end up like this:

ESU @ Charleston
Ashland @ Slippery Rock
IUP @ New Haven
Kutztown gets the bye.

ESU and Shep ends up being a play in game in this scenario

[TheBigCat2192]

I think it’s too early to start talking seeding but with most teams playing around 1/4-1/3 of their schedule it’s probably not too soon to think about tiers in general. My biggest thoughts so far:

1. KU, SRU, and IUP all look good. One of these three will probably end up PSAC champ and a high seed.
2. Cal, ESU, and Shep have all taken losses that give them limited wiggle room. Shep and Cal might be able to get in with two losses because of their schedules. I don’t know if the same is true of ESU
3. Findlay is undefeated but I don’t believe they’ve played either Tiffin or Ashland yet.
4. Tiffin and Ashland are both 2-2 but each have a loss outside the region. Their record against regional opponents could end with only 1 loss.
5. The NE-10 is a mess. I believe all of their teams have at least 1 D2 loss and none of their top contenders have any marquee non-conference wins.
6. Charleston looks like a solid contender but the rest of the MEC is underwhelming. Could a 1-loss FSU miss out behind a 2-loss team from a tougher league? Too soon to tell but worth keeping in the back of your mind as those two play through their conference schedules.

[Ram040506]

ESU and Shep ends up being a play in game in this scenario

I'm having some doubts about my Rams. Defense is solid but the offense really can be neutered by good defenses. Kutztown and ESU at this point, I think are losses on the Rams schedule for an 8-3 finish. Should be great games though and Shepherd can definitely win them. Rock nearly shut the Rams out, as the only touchdown was a gift on a terrible call by Lutz to do a fake punt before the half inside his own 30 yard line. Only scored 14 offensive points against a really bad Clarion team.

[Ram040506]

I think it’s too early to start talking seeding but with most teams playing around 1/4-1/3 of their schedule it’s probably not too soon to think about tiers in general. My biggest thoughts so far:

1. KU, SRU, and IUP all look good. One of these three will probably end up PSAC champ and a high seed.
2. Cal, ESU, and Shep have all taken losses that give them limited wiggle room. Shep and Cal might be able to get in with two losses because of their schedules. I don’t know if the same is true of ESU
3. Findlay is undefeated but I don’t believe they’ve played either Tiffin or Ashland yet.
4. Tiffin and Ashland are both 2-2 but each have a loss outside the region. Their record against regional opponents could end with only 1 loss.
5. The NE-10 is a mess. I believe all of their teams have at least 1 D2 loss and none of their top contenders have any marquee non-conference wins.
6. Charleston looks like a solid contender but the rest of the MEC is underwhelming. Could a 1-loss FSU miss out behind a 2-loss team from a tougher league? Too soon to tell but worth keeping in the back of your mind as those two play through their conference schedules.

Charleston and Frostburg are head and shoulders above everyone in the MEC. Frostburg's SOS is terrible, so they almost can't afford a loss at all. I'm counting all the other 3 conferences as single bid leagues for playoffs this year.

[IUPbigINDIANS]

I still contend Lock Haven is going to get somebody and throw a big wrench in to things.

[CALUPA69]

I still contend Lock Haven is going to get somebody and throw a big wrench in to things.

Given that their X-over games were only 10 points from upsets over 2 of the West top 3, I'd say that's a certainty. With both Shepherd and Kutztown on the road in the next two weeks, I'll put my $$ on Bloomsburg in Wk 7.

[TheBigCat2192]

Charleston and Frostburg are head and shoulders above everyone in the MEC. Frostburg's SOS is terrible, so they almost can't afford a loss at all. I'm counting all the other 3 conferences as single bid leagues for playoffs this year.

Worth noting that the NE-10 is also going to take some lumps in record and SOS since they’re double-dipping on conference games with only 9 teams. For example, New Haven is scheduled to play Pace (terrible) twice, Bentley gets another game against St. Anselm (who they only beat 3-0 the first time), and Assumption has a second round with Franklin Pierce (also terrible). Convenient how the league managed to avoid multiple matchups between any of their three usual best teams.

[IUPbigINDIANS]

Given that their X-over games were only 10 points from upsets over 2 of the West top 3, I'd say that's a certainty. With both Shepherd and Kutztown on the road in the next two weeks, I'll put my $$ on Bloomsburg in Wk 7.

I actually meant I think they are going to get one of the perceived big opponents (ESU, Kutztown, Shepherd) remaining on their schedule. But, you're right. As of now Bloom is hanging in there.

[UNH Chargers]

Worth noting that the NE-10 is also going to take some lumps in record and SOS since they’re double-dipping on conference games with only 9 teams. For example, New Haven is scheduled to play Pace (terrible) twice, Bentley gets another game against St. Anselm (who they only beat 3-0 the first time), and Assumption has a second round with Franklin Pierce (also terrible). Convenient how the league managed to avoid multiple matchups between any of their three usual best teams.

Very interesting to say the least. Did you even try to do some sort of research before posting this? Well, let me fill you in with some facts. Just last year, in 2023, New Haven played Bentley twice. In 2021, Assumption played Bentley twice. In 2019, St. Anselm played Assumption twice and obviously, like you mentioned above, this year Bentley is playing St. Anselm twice. And where did you get your informaions from regarding Bentley only beat St, Anselm for the first time this year? Bentley is 22 and 2 against St. Anselm with many, many, many blowout wins by the Falcons. Get your facts straight please.

[Ram040506]

Very interesting to say the least. Did you even try to do some sort of research before posting this? Well, let me fill you in with some facts. Just last year, in 2023, New Haven played Bentley twice. In 2021, Assumption played Bentley twice. In 2019, St. Anselm played Assumption twice and obviously, like you mentioned above, this year Bentley is playing St. Anselm twice. And where did you get your informaions from regarding Bentley only beat St, Anselm for the first time this year? Bentley is 22 and 2 against St. Anselm with many, many, many blowout wins by the Falcons. Get your facts straight please.

Think he meant they won 3-0 in this year's game... maybe read it twice before getting so upset lol

[Ram040506]

I actually meant I think they are going to get one of the perceived big opponents (ESU, Kutztown, Shepherd) remaining on their schedule. But, you're right. As of now Bloom is hanging in there.

Could be this week, LH at Shepherd. Injuries starting to mount for the Rams, and the run game has stalled tremendously. If LH can control the LOS on defense, they can win. Looks like they have been stingy against their first 3 opponents allowing 117 yds a game and around 3 yards per carry. Millersville blew them up for 250 on the ground though last week. On the other hand, if they can't sustain drives, I think Shepherd will wear them out and win at the end. LH had -1 yds rushing against Cal and only 51 yds against IUP. One thing the Rams can hang their hat on has been defense so far, and I'd like to think Shepherd compares favorably on that side of the ball with IUP/Cal.

Should be a great game, it's youth football day and pink day at Ram Stadium and WVU plays at 4pm on the road so should be a packed house if the weather cooperates.

[IUPbigINDIANS]

Could be this week, LH at Shepherd. Injuries starting to mount for the Rams, and the run game has stalled tremendously. If LH can control the LOS on defense, they can win. Looks like they have been stingy against their first 3 opponents allowing 117 yds a game and around 3 yards per carry. Millersville blew them up for 250 on the ground though last week. On the other hand, if they can't sustain drives, I think Shepherd will wear them out and win at the end. LH had -1 yds rushing against Cal and only 51 yds against IUP. One thing the Rams can hang their hat on has been defense so far, and I'd like to think Shepherd compares favorably on that side of the ball with IUP/Cal.

Should be a great game, it's youth football day and pink day at Ram Stadium and WVU plays at 4pm on the road so should be a packed house if the weather cooperates.

I don't take too much away from Lock Haven's subpar performance against Millersville.

The Mauraders' visit was the sandwich game in between IUP/Cal and Shepherd/Kutztown -- a brutal 5-week stretch for the Bald Eagles. Millersville was naturally going to be the let-down game. Not to mention they were likely beat up after playing IUP/Cal back-to-back - and losing both in heartbreaking fashion by a combined 10 points. Those were both extremely physical, high-emotion games.

The thing with Lock Haven is it doesn't go away. Credit to the staff. That team keeps coming even when you think they will just start to fade. They've struggled running the ball with their committee. Their OL is fairly suspect. IUP and Cal were in the backfield all night. The QB is an escape artist and can make some big throws on the run. They live on the splash plays. They have some dogs on defense but will have some lapses. They play (at times overly) aggressive, make a lot of dump penalties, talk nonstop -- and, without question, it will be a chippy game.

They are a good team and they've been very close twice. It's coming ... you just don't want to be the coming out party.

That said, we'll see how they do against a big team on the road. They had some really good crowds behind them at Hubert Jack in the losses, which no doubt helped in the comebacks. Everything changes on the road (for most teams).