SR1 Bracketology-ish: Week 11 Analysis and Preview

[ctrabs74]

We have the penultimate NPI rankings for the 2026 season released earlier today. Here are the top 11 teams in SR1 and who they're facing this coming weekend:

1. Slippery Rock (69.007; vs East Stroudsburg: PSAC State Game championship)
2. East Stroudsburg (64.147; at Slippery Rock: PSAC State Game championship)
3. Kutztown (62.771; at Seton Hill)
4. Virginia Union (61.090; vs JCSU: CIAA Championship, Durham, NC)
5. Johnson C Smith (57.642; vs Virginia Union: CIAA Championship, Durham, NC)
6. California (55.944; vs Bloomsburg)
7. Fayetteville State (55.558; vs Virginia State: CIAA "Friday Night Blitz", Durham, NC)
8. Assumption (55.352; at Pace - de facto NE-10 championship game)
9. Virginia State (55.159; vs Fayetteville State: CIAA "Friday Night Blitz", Durham, NC)
10. Shepherd (54.387; at IUP)
11. Bloomsburg (53.916; at Cal)

I would say at this point there are at least four Locks for the playoffs: Slippery Rock, East Stroudsburg, Kutztown and the CIAA champion - VUU/JCSU). Bear in mind that Slippery Rock already beat East Stroudsburg 59-35 on Sept. 12. I was inclined to say there are five locks, but I'm not quite at that point yet.

Then you have the next tier, which I'd describe as Win and You're Safe: Johnson C Smith/Virginia Union loser and Cal fall into this category. I think VUU can absorb a loss and still stay make the playoffs, but I'm not as sure about JCSU given the nearly three-and-a-half point difference between VUU and JCSU. The Golden Bulls are probably closer to the 6-8 range with a loss than they are to the top four.

Cal probably has more to lose than JCSU at this point, but, thanks to the relative strength of opponent's schedule among PSAC teams (that Slippery Rock win over Minnesota-Duluth is definitely a boost in that area for the Vulcans), all Cal has to do is win and they're in. I would be shocked if a Bloomsburg win over Cal would vault the Huskies all the way into the Top Seven, but a Cal loss would likely knock them into the seventh seed - and potentially getting bumped for the MEC champion due to automatic qualification. Less than a point separates Cal from the next three teams - Fayetteville, Assumption and VSU - so there's virtually no margin for error.

Assumption is also a lock should they beat Pace and win the NE-10. Having Kutztown on your schedule (granted a blowout loss) is clearly doing wonders for the Greyhounds' strength of schedule metrics.

The MEC champion is also a lock, but that merits it's own discussion....

The third tier is Needs Chaos to Qualify. That's where Fayetteville State, Virginia State, and, to an extent, Shepherd and Bloomsburg find themselves. The CIAA introduced a "Friday Night Blitz" game between the third- and fourth-place teams in the CIAA standings in an effort to boost playoff resumes. Fayetteville has actually won two of the last three meetings against the Trojans, so they'd seem to be favored in Friday night's showdown. The winner of this game would need, at a minimum, Cal to lose to Bloomsburg to steal a third playoff bid for the CIAA.

Shepherd and Bloomsburg might be too far back from the top eight to steal a bid, but we've seen crazier things happen in the last week of the season.

The MEC championship picture almost seems complicated, but it's not.

Here are the top four teams in the MEC heading into this weekend:

Charleston 5-2
West Liberty 5-2
Concord 5-3
Wheeling 4-3

This is the simple version: A Charleston win over West Virginia State gives the Golden Eagles the MEC title and the league's automatic qualifier. Even with a loss, Charleston's chances of winning the MEC are still decent, given their head-to-head wins over West Liberty, Concord and Wheeling. Unless...

A West Liberty win over Wheeling and a Charleston loss to WV State gives the Hilltoppers the MEC title and the AQ bid.

[IUPNation]

I have to say this method is getter than watching spreadsheets screw teams over.

I am also glad I am not going to be subjected to IUP in a one and done playoff scenario.

[EastStroud13]

Virginia Union is a lock I'm pretty sure. Win and they get a home game, lose and they go on the road. Their metrics are strong enough that I think they can withstand a loss even if all the other games go against them. JC Smith might not be able to.

I see the tiers as follows:

Locks: Slippery Rock, East Stroudsburg, Kutztown, Virginia Union
Win and in: Johnson C. Smith, Assumption/Pace, Charleston
Win and probably in: California
Needs help: Fayetteville State, Virginia State, West Liberty
Eliminated: Everyone else (including Shepherd and Bloomsburg)

That's 12 teams for 8 spots.

[TheBigCat2192]

In my eyes, there are two big questions going into the final week: how many bid thieves will we get, and how will the at-large bids be split? The MEC champ is going to bump a more worthy team out of a spot and if Pace beats Assumption they are going to bump another more deserving team from the field as well, because I don't see them climbing into the top 8 naturally. For the other question - neither the MEC or NE10 are getting an at-large, so the distribution is either going to be 2:2 PSAC/CIAA or 3:1 in favor of one, and I'm very curious to see how the CIAA's new #3 vs. #4 game will affect that math.

[ctrabs74]

In my eyes, there are two big questions going into the final week: how many bid thieves will we get, and how will the at-large bids be split? The MEC champ is going to bump a more worthy team out of a spot and if Pace beats Assumption they are going to bump another more deserving team from the field as well, because I don't see them climbing into the top 8 naturally. For the other question - neither the MEC or NE10 are getting an at-large, so the distribution is either going to be 2:2 PSAC/CIAA or 3:1 in favor of one, and I'm very curious to see how the CIAA's new #3 vs. #4 game will affect that math.

Eight teams from each Super Region qualify for the playoffs. Right now, I'm guessing it's either going to be a 3 PSAC/3 CIAA or 4 PSAC/2 CIAA split. Bloom-Cal and Fayetteville-VSU will probably be the two biggest games of the weekend.

There's a chance we could know as early as Saturday because the NCAA updates their NPI rankings the day after games are played. Since FSU/VSU is taking place Friday night, there will likely be an update Saturday morning before the rest of the games kick off this weekend. If FSU jumps ahead of Cal into #6 with a win over VSU, then that doesn't bode well for the Vulcans.

[TheROCK]

Locks as automatic qualifiers (4): Slippery Rock/East Stroudsburg winner, Virginia Union/Johnson C. Smith Winner, Assumption/ Pace winner, MEC Champion Charleston or West Liberty
NPI that cannot be caught (3) Slippery Rock/East Stroudsburg loser, Virginia Union/Johnson C Smith loser, Kutztown
Last one in is up for grabs, If Fayetteville State beats Virginia State its theirs, if not than its California if they beat Bloomsburg, If both lose than Virginia State is the last one in.
Eliminated: Everyone else