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  • Countdown to the Playoffs

    Hard to believe there are just 4 weeks left in the regular. season. The GAC has been spared the disruptions caused by COVID in other conferences. If you GAC posters aren’t watching Inkblots weekly regional rankings and matchups, I’d recommend you do so. Although there is plenty of football yet to be play as far as who is in the playoffs it comes down to Ouachita playing SEOSU and Henderson in the last two weeks of the season. The SEOSU-ECU game in the final week could make things interesting as well. Of course, I don’t want to discount the importance of the Bisons staying focused and injury free in the final weeks. If they do, chances are pretty good they’ll face NWSU in the opening round of the playoffs. Because of proximity in SR2 and new NCAA-D2 money saving travel rule it seems Harding can never dodge that match up every year. What do you all think?

  • #2
    How many teams could represent the GAC? Just 2 or could a third sneak in?

    Comment


    • #3
      Originally posted by OBU-BisonFan View Post
      How many teams could represent the GAC? Just 2 or could a third sneak in?
      I don’t foresee a 2 loss GAC team getting in this year. It will likely be the remaining one loss team amongst HSU, SEOSU, and OBU.

      Comment


      • #4
        Sorry for the typo in my original post. Our GAC teams in the playoffs are in Super Region 3, not SR2. Copying Inkblot’s pairings based this week’s rankings. Again, these are not the pairings the committee will use but Inkblot’s pairings based the criteria used the last two years.

        SR3
        1. Ferris State (6-0)
        2. Harding (6-1)
        3. Grand Valley State (4-1)
        4. Lindenwood (5-1)
        5. Nebraska–Kearney (6-1)
        6. Northwest Missouri State (5-1)
        7. Henderson State (6-1)
        8. Southeastern Oklahoma State (6-1)
        9. Ouachita Baptist (6-1)
        10. Washburn (5-2)

        Comment


        • #5
          Here are Inkblot’s pairings based on his rankings in my earlier post:

          3.1 Ferris State
          3.5 Nebraska–Kearney at 3.4 Lindenwood
          3.6 Northwest Missouri State at 3.2 Harding
          4.5 Augustana at 3.3 Grand Valley State

          inkblot has Henderson playing Midwestern State in SR4 to accommodate the money saving travel rule.

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          • #6
            The best way to guarantee the GAC gets 3 teams in is if they have 3 1-loss teams.

            Heading forward, if you are a Harding fan you want two things to happen:
            1) Nebraska-Kearney beating Northwest Missouri on October 30th
            2) Washburn winning out

            That scenario would likely ensure that the Bisons do not play Northwest Missouri in the first round, as the Bearcats would most likely be eliminated from the playoff picture.

            Comment


            • #7
              Originally posted by Armo Wood View Post
              The best way to guarantee the GAC gets 3 teams in is if they have 3 1-loss teams.

              Heading forward, if you are a Harding fan you want two things to happen:
              1) Nebraska-Kearney beating Northwest Missouri on October 30th
              2) Washburn winning out

              That scenario would likely ensure that the Bisons do not play Northwest Missouri in the first round, as the Bearcats would most likely be eliminated from the playoff picture.
              If projections are accurate, and who knows with this region, then it’s not likely. If NW wins, they’ll likely knock Kearney out. Or at least replace Kearney who is currently ranked ahead of them. If NW were to lose again, they’d be out too.

              Comment


              • #8
                One thing to remember is that GAC teams will all have .500 SOS (assuming no cancellations). The MIAA would usually be the same, but the NWMSU–Lincoln cancellation changes things slightly. For NWMSU, the increase in SOS will be offset by the lack of an additional win. I don't know how much, if any, the cancellation will alter the other 10 teams' SOS.

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                • #9
                  Originally posted by Divisiontwo View Post

                  If projections are accurate, and who knows with this region, then it’s not likely. If NW wins, they’ll likely knock Kearney out. Or at least replace Kearney who is currently ranked ahead of them. If NW were to lose again, they’d be out too.
                  I was just focusing on what would likely guarantee Harding does not have another first round match up against Northwest Missouri since OldBison brought it up based upon Inkblot's work--and Inkblot has a good track record.

                  You are correct in pointing out that that even if Northwest Missouri wins out they could end up on the other side of the bracket, per Inkblot's work to date. We will find out soon enough.

                  I agree that the only thing for certain in this region is that nothing is certain.

                  Comment


                  • #10
                    Originally posted by Inkblot View Post
                    One thing to remember is that GAC teams will all have .500 SOS (assuming no cancellations). The MIAA would usually be the same, but the NWMSU–Lincoln cancellation changes things slightly. For NWMSU, the increase in SOS will be offset by the lack of an additional win. I don't know how much, if any, the cancellation will alter the other 10 teams' SOS.
                    Do you believe the committee is likely to give more weight to SOS over Win%? Or cancel one another out?

                    How much did the secondary criteria come into play in your calculations for SR3?
                    Last edited by Armo Wood; 10-17-2021, 01:51 PM.

                    Comment


                    • #11
                      Like the GAC there’s so much parity in the MIAA this year and most of top 4 teams in the MIAA have opportunities to knock each other off. I predict Kearney will beat NWMS and Pitt will beat Washburn. With that scenario and Harding finishing with only 1 loss, who would Harding play in the first round?

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                      • #12
                        Originally posted by Armo Wood View Post

                        Do you believe the committee is likely to give more weight to SOS over Win%? Or cancel one another out?

                        How much did the secondary criteria come into play in your calculations for SR3?
                        The traditional thing to do is add SOS and Win% together, but that's not a strict rule.

                        I have been looking at some of the other criteria. For example, Michigan Tech being 0-1 against teams with a winning record was part of the reason I put Washburn 10th instead.

                        Comment


                        • #13
                          Originally posted by Inkblot View Post
                          The traditional thing to do is add SOS and Win% together, but that's not a strict rule.I have been looking at some of the other criteria. For example, Michigan Tech being 0-1 against teams with a winning record was part of the reason I put Washburn 10th instead.
                          I was just curious about your thoughts because they haven't done the traditional thing in SR3 in a long time due to the silo scheduling. In the past they've had to go to the secondary criteria in SR3 to get around the logjams created by silo scheduling. It will be interesting to see what route they pursue this year.

                          Comment


                          • #14
                            Originally posted by Armo Wood View Post

                            I was just curious about your thoughts because they haven't done the traditional thing in SR3 in a long time due to the silo scheduling. In the past they've had to go to the secondary criteria in SR3 to get around the logjams created by silo scheduling. It will be interesting to see what route they pursue this year.
                            When three teams are 10-1 with a .500 SOS, it's necessary to use the secondary criteria. I believe it was record against teams with winning records that was the deciding factor for that group in 2019.

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                            • #15
                              So if we end up with 3 teams at 10-1 and their only losses are to each other, do we get three in playoffs, or if only two are in how do they decide?

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