Guesses for SR3?

[bigmrg74]

Let's see,
1 Harding won,
2 GVSU won,
3 PSU won,
4 CMU won.
5 Ferris won.
6 Ouachita Baptist lost
7 Missouri Western lost
8 Davenport lost
9 Indianapolis won.
10 Southern Arkansas won.

Ouachita, Western, and Davenport all loosing yesterday didn't do them any favors right now. Out of the 3, Missouri Western has 3 loses so they are probably the most out of the 3. Just kinda comes down to who the Committee has the best losses between Davenport and Ouachita Baptist had here, maybe the committee notes the GAC teams and knocks them down a peg just for not having a noninterference game on their schedules. Indy gets very lucky and could very well slide back up into the seventh spot here and not need earned access to make the playoffs as a legitament seventh seed. Could work to their favor because then they or Ferris could get shipped to the SR1, but not really seeing anywhere that could remove a plane trip at the moment. Indy is under the 600 mile limit for a flight to the MIAA schools and Harding as well.

[Redwing]

I just noticed this from the PO Handbook. All along I thought all the criteria was to be used for all the seedings. Then I read this (below). If I read it right, the directive indicates that all the criteria come into play for the at large teams, but not for 1-4 seeds. I'm I reading that right? So then I wonder how the comm sees/uses this? I ask since no where does it indicate HOW to use those few metrics. It also doesn't say how to weight them. So is SOS more important the W/L? Or is in region more important the DII winning percentage? I find it a bit odd.

Of course, could it be that ALL teams are considered at large for DII football? Are they at large since for DII football, there are no automatic bids.. like a conf. champ qualifies. If that's the case, I wonder why they break up the criteria as they do below. So what's the definition of an at large team for DII football? I guess we just wait and scratch our head as to why a team is slotted where. I gotta stir the pot somehow.

Section 2•4 Selection Criteria
SELECTION CRITERIA
The following criteria shall be employed by a governing sport committee in selecting participants for NCAA
championships competition [Reference: Bylaw 18.4.3 in the NCAA Division II Manual; Criteria for Selection of
Participants]:
● Availability of student-athletes for NCAA championships; and
● Nullification.
Required Selection Criteria. Following confirmation of the availability of student-athletes for NCAA Championships and
the application for any nullification, the following selection criteria shall be applied in no particular order:
● In-region winning percentage;
● Division II winning percentage;
● Division II strength of schedule (opponents’ average winning percentage and opponents’ opponents’
average winning percentage);
● Division II head-to-head competition; and
● Results versus Division II common opponents.
In addition to Bylaw 18.4.3, the Division II Football Committee has received approval from the Division II Championships
Committee to consider the following criteria in the selection of at-large teams for the Division II Football Championship
(not necessarily in priority order):
● Division II results vs. teams with a winning record;
● Performance Indicator (PI); and
● Results versus ranked Division II opponents.

[tip79]

What is a "Performance Indicator (PI)"?

[Redwing]

What is a "Performance Indicator (PI)"?

It's a bit complicated but it assigns points based upon records of teams you play and where they are played (home/road) Kind of an enhanced SOS. Like you get more points beating a .600 w/l team vs beating a .200 w/l team.

[gvfootball01]

I’m obviously being very bias, and no disrespect for Harding, but why wouldn’t GV be the #1 seed? Their only loss is to the #1 team in the country. And when you look at the teams GV played vs Harding, it seems night and day.

I’m guessing the committee doesn’t want to pay for as much travel, and will keep GV at 2 so they can send Indy to Allendale. But all things considered, I don’t see why GV shouldn’t be the #1 seed.

[tip79]

I’m obviously being very bias, and no disrespect for Harding, but why wouldn’t GV be the #1 seed? Their only loss is to the #1 team in the country. And when you look at the teams GV played vs Harding, it seems night and day.

I’m guessing the committee doesn’t want to pay for as much travel, and will keep GV at 2 so they can send Indy to Allendale. But all things considered, I don’t see why GV shouldn’t be the #1 seed.

I agree.

[Redwing]

I suspect Harding at 1 because the comm values w/l over SOS. That's a battle none of us get to participate in. The lazy way is to use equal percentages.. i.e. add them together and rank that. IMO, there should be some convention as to what a 0.1 difference in SOS gets one vs a 0.1 difference in w/l. Currently they are equal. How that came to be, I have no idea. For me.. and it's not just because it works in GV's favor this year, I place more value on SOS. At least 2x, IMO.

Through all this, I wonder what GV wants. They are pretty healthy so the bye won't mean much in that regard. For me. I just see a plus of having home field throughout. But I'm just a fan.

For that matter, I don't even know who I'd like GV to face when. Inkblot has Ferris going to SR1, but would the GV contingent prefer a first round GV/FSU game (with that suspended coach???)

Let's see what the comm does... with Sparky and FSU's AD on it.

[gvfootball01]

I suspect Harding at 1 because the comm values w/l over SOS. That's a battle none of us get to participate in. The lazy way is to use equal percentages.. i.e. add them together and rank that. IMO, there should be some convention as to what a 0.1 difference in SOS gets one vs a 0.1 difference in w/l. Currently they are equal. How that came to be, I have no idea. For me.. and it's not just because it works in GV's favor this year, I place more value on SOS. At least 2x, IMO.

Through all this, I wonder what GV wants. They are pretty healthy so the bye won't mean much in that regard. For me. I just see a plus of having home field throughout. But I'm just a fan.

For that matter, I don't even know who I'd like GV to face when. Inkblot has Ferris going to SR1, but would the GV contingent prefer a first round GV/FSU game (with that suspended coach???)

Let's see what the comm does... with Sparky and FSU's AD on it.

Please excuse my ignorance, but have I missed a shift in the playoff format? Can teams be placed in different regions? When I played it was certain conferences in certain regions, and that was it. I feel dumb if I missed it, but I’ve seen some comments of teams currently in SR3, but then shifting to another region.

Technically if GV gets the #1, and Ferris stays in the 4/5, that would be a rematch in the second round after a bye. To be honest, at that point, I’d rather be the #2 and not have a rematch until the 3rd round. At the end of the day, we’re going to have to beat Ferris again no matter what (at least looking at the other teams in SR3)

[gvfootball01]

Just saw the prediction from Inkblot.

If Ferris gets shipped out, I’d rather be the #1 in SR3. If Ferris stays in SR3, I’d rather be #2.

Again, I’m bias, but I don’t think Harding deserves the #1.

[Redwing]

Please excuse my ignorance, but have I missed a shift in the playoff format? Can teams be placed in different regions? When I played it was certain conferences in certain regions, and that was it. I feel dumb if I missed it, but I’ve seen some comments of teams currently in SR3, but then shifting to another region.

Technically if GV gets the #1, and Ferris stays in the 4/5, that would be a rematch in the second round after a bye. To be honest, at that point, I’d rather be the #2 and not have a rematch until the 3rd round. At the end of the day, we’re going to have to beat Ferris again no matter what (at least looking at the other teams in SR3)

Teams 5-7 can be shifted to other regions if that results in less flights in the first 2 rounds... So 600 miles or closer. And 5-7 aren't necessarily the actual ranking since that order can adjust to result in fewer flights or delay rematches. An actual 5th "ranked" team could be matched up to a #2 in the first round. Or a #7 could be matched up with a #4 in the first. The one exception is that if a team gets in through Earned Access, they are to be matched up with a #2 seed.. but even then, they could be shipped to another region.

[codeblack]

I’m obviously being very bias, and no disrespect for Harding, but why wouldn’t GV be the #1 seed? Their only loss is to the #1 team in the country. And when you look at the teams GV played vs Harding, it seems night and day.

I’m guessing the committee doesn’t want to pay for as much travel, and will keep GV at 2 so they can send Indy to Allendale. But all things considered, I don’t see why GV shouldn’t be the #1 seed.

The ole’ “quality loss” metric.

[Redwing]

The ole’ “quality loss” metric.

Versus the low "quality win" metric. Silo scheduling hurts quality evaluations.

[KleShreen]

The ole’ “quality loss” metric.

If you want to play that game, GV's wins over Ferris and Davenport are better than any win on Harding's schedule, and you could argue that the win over Pueblo is also better than anything on Harding's schedule. A game behind, record-wise, of Henderson/SAU/Ouachita, but arguably a better team, regardless.

[codeblack]

If you want to play that game, GV's wins over Ferris and Davenport are better than any win on Harding's schedule, and you could argue that the win over Pueblo is also better than anything on Harding's schedule. A game behind, record-wise, of Henderson/SAU/Ouachita, but arguably a better team, regardless.

Pueblo? Who did they even beat? You can schedule the top teams 1-10 but it you lose every one it doesn’t say anything about your team except you’re not as good as them. I’ll give you Ferris. Davenport is a maybe. You could argue Pueblo but you’d look silly.

[KleShreen]

Pueblo? Who did they even beat? You can schedule the top teams 1-10 but it you lose every one it doesn’t say anything about your team except you’re not as good as them. I’ll give you Ferris. Davenport is a maybe. You could argue Pueblo but you’d look silly.

If you want to ask "who did Pueblo beat?" then you might as well ask it for Harding, too.