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So here it is the last week of the regular season already. It went by way too fast. My picks for last week were abysmal, the only comfort being they were abysmal for most everyone. This week I only see two games that are a little up in the air (without an upset occurring.)
Upper Iowa at Minnesota State-Mankato - Mankato is the #1 team in the nation. As we've repeatedly stated, UIU this season is Jeckyll and Hyde. However, I don't think either Jeckyll or Hyde will be enough to beat Mankato at home.
Wayne State at Sioux Falls - Last weekend the Coo arguably gave Mankato their toughest game of the season, and as Witt said showed that they are likely much better than their record would indicate. Wayne also played a pretty good game against UIU. USF is down their top two wide receivers, which means they'll probably rely even more heavily on their heavy ground attack. Thankfully for them, Wayne has a slightly below middle of the pack run defense. However, knowing the USF will be a bit less potent through the air might make them sell out a bit more against the run. In addition, Watson needs 172 yards to break the NSIC single season rushing record and that may mean he gets the ball a little more often in the hopes he can reach that goal. I always think of Wayne as a scrappy team that can suprise people at times, so I'm not expecting the Wildcats to roll over. However, I do think that the Cougars win at home on Senior Day.
Minot State at Bemidji State - Bemidji lost last weekend to a team that probably wasn't quite as good as them. I think they vent some frustrations in this weekend's Beaver Battle.
Concordia-St. Paul at Winona State - Both these teams wrecked my picks last weekend. It didn't really surprise me that Winona won as I figured their game against Augie could go either way. It did surprise me that the Golden Bears knocked off SMSU, as CSP hasn't been playing as well recently. That being said, Winona is also a team that I think has played below their potential this season. But I don't think they're going to struggle too hard this weekend and they'll finish the season with a win and possibly a trip to the MWB.
Northern State at Minnesota-Duluth - Duluth has had a couple of weeks to rest their starters and give their backups some valuable playing time. Northern hasn't had that luxury. Few teams beat the Bulldogs at home and I don't think the Wolves are going to change that statistic this weekend.
Mary at Minnesota-Crookston - This is the first of my "up in the air" games. What a tough year for Mary. Before the season started I didn't think that at this point in the season they would be sitting winless. Even less likely would I have thought that they would be considered the underdog against Crookston. Both of these teams have had a couple games where they've played competitively, but a lot more games where they haven't. Mary will be fighting to not get shut out this season. Crookston will be fighting to have their first two-win season in a long time. I'm not sure if this has the makings of a really good game or a really bad game, but I think Crookston will have just enough more ability to win this game at home.
St. Cloud State at Minnesota State-Moorhead - This is the other game I think could go either way. Both teams are sitting with a 7-3 record. I've watched both teams play this season and in the games I saw St. Cloud was clearly the better team. Perhaps I saw the Huskies on a particularly good day and the Dragons on a bad day? Could be. However I think St. Cloud is a much more physical team and that should allow them just enough edge to get a win on the road.
Augustana at Southwest Minnesota State - Before last week SMSU seemed to be putting some things together, then they lost to a Concordia team that I thought they easily should have won against. Augie also lost, but to a much better Winona team. I think the Augie air attack is a really bad matchup for SMSU's passing defense, which will probably spell a long day for the Mustangs.
Upper Iowa at Minnesota State-Mankato - Mankato is the #1 team in the nation. As we've repeatedly stated, UIU this season is Jeckyll and Hyde. However, I don't think either Jeckyll or Hyde will be enough to beat Mankato at home.
Wayne State at Sioux Falls - Last weekend the Coo arguably gave Mankato their toughest game of the season, and as Witt said showed that they are likely much better than their record would indicate. Wayne also played a pretty good game against UIU. USF is down their top two wide receivers, which means they'll probably rely even more heavily on their heavy ground attack. Thankfully for them, Wayne has a slightly below middle of the pack run defense. However, knowing the USF will be a bit less potent through the air might make them sell out a bit more against the run. In addition, Watson needs 172 yards to break the NSIC single season rushing record and that may mean he gets the ball a little more often in the hopes he can reach that goal. I always think of Wayne as a scrappy team that can suprise people at times, so I'm not expecting the Wildcats to roll over. However, I do think that the Cougars win at home on Senior Day.
Minot State at Bemidji State - Bemidji lost last weekend to a team that probably wasn't quite as good as them. I think they vent some frustrations in this weekend's Beaver Battle.
Concordia-St. Paul at Winona State - Both these teams wrecked my picks last weekend. It didn't really surprise me that Winona won as I figured their game against Augie could go either way. It did surprise me that the Golden Bears knocked off SMSU, as CSP hasn't been playing as well recently. That being said, Winona is also a team that I think has played below their potential this season. But I don't think they're going to struggle too hard this weekend and they'll finish the season with a win and possibly a trip to the MWB.
Northern State at Minnesota-Duluth - Duluth has had a couple of weeks to rest their starters and give their backups some valuable playing time. Northern hasn't had that luxury. Few teams beat the Bulldogs at home and I don't think the Wolves are going to change that statistic this weekend.
Mary at Minnesota-Crookston - This is the first of my "up in the air" games. What a tough year for Mary. Before the season started I didn't think that at this point in the season they would be sitting winless. Even less likely would I have thought that they would be considered the underdog against Crookston. Both of these teams have had a couple games where they've played competitively, but a lot more games where they haven't. Mary will be fighting to not get shut out this season. Crookston will be fighting to have their first two-win season in a long time. I'm not sure if this has the makings of a really good game or a really bad game, but I think Crookston will have just enough more ability to win this game at home.
St. Cloud State at Minnesota State-Moorhead - This is the other game I think could go either way. Both teams are sitting with a 7-3 record. I've watched both teams play this season and in the games I saw St. Cloud was clearly the better team. Perhaps I saw the Huskies on a particularly good day and the Dragons on a bad day? Could be. However I think St. Cloud is a much more physical team and that should allow them just enough edge to get a win on the road.
Augustana at Southwest Minnesota State - Before last week SMSU seemed to be putting some things together, then they lost to a Concordia team that I thought they easily should have won against. Augie also lost, but to a much better Winona team. I think the Augie air attack is a really bad matchup for SMSU's passing defense, which will probably spell a long day for the Mustangs.
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