NSIC Pick'Em Week #11 - Chat

[OldSchool]

Re: NSIC Pick'Em Week #11 - Chat

So here it is the last week of the regular season already. It went by way too fast. My picks for last week were abysmal, the only comfort being they were abysmal for most everyone. This week I only see two games that are a little up in the air (without an upset occurring.)

Upper Iowa at Minnesota State-Mankato - Mankato is the #1 team in the nation. As we've repeatedly stated, UIU this season is Jeckyll and Hyde. However, I don't think either Jeckyll or Hyde will be enough to beat Mankato at home.

Wayne State at Sioux Falls - Last weekend the Coo arguably gave Mankato their toughest game of the season, and as Witt said showed that they are likely much better than their record would indicate. Wayne also played a pretty good game against UIU. USF is down their top two wide receivers, which means they'll probably rely even more heavily on their heavy ground attack. Thankfully for them, Wayne has a slightly below middle of the pack run defense. However, knowing the USF will be a bit less potent through the air might make them sell out a bit more against the run. In addition, Watson needs 172 yards to break the NSIC single season rushing record and that may mean he gets the ball a little more often in the hopes he can reach that goal. I always think of Wayne as a scrappy team that can suprise people at times, so I'm not expecting the Wildcats to roll over. However, I do think that the Cougars win at home on Senior Day.

Minot State at Bemidji State - Bemidji lost last weekend to a team that probably wasn't quite as good as them. I think they vent some frustrations in this weekend's Beaver Battle.

Concordia-St. Paul at Winona State - Both these teams wrecked my picks last weekend. It didn't really surprise me that Winona won as I figured their game against Augie could go either way. It did surprise me that the Golden Bears knocked off SMSU, as CSP hasn't been playing as well recently. That being said, Winona is also a team that I think has played below their potential this season. But I don't think they're going to struggle too hard this weekend and they'll finish the season with a win and possibly a trip to the MWB.

Northern State at Minnesota-Duluth - Duluth has had a couple of weeks to rest their starters and give their backups some valuable playing time. Northern hasn't had that luxury. Few teams beat the Bulldogs at home and I don't think the Wolves are going to change that statistic this weekend.

Mary at Minnesota-Crookston - This is the first of my "up in the air" games. What a tough year for Mary. Before the season started I didn't think that at this point in the season they would be sitting winless. Even less likely would I have thought that they would be considered the underdog against Crookston. Both of these teams have had a couple games where they've played competitively, but a lot more games where they haven't. Mary will be fighting to not get shut out this season. Crookston will be fighting to have their first two-win season in a long time. I'm not sure if this has the makings of a really good game or a really bad game, but I think Crookston will have just enough more ability to win this game at home.

St. Cloud State at Minnesota State-Moorhead - This is the other game I think could go either way. Both teams are sitting with a 7-3 record. I've watched both teams play this season and in the games I saw St. Cloud was clearly the better team. Perhaps I saw the Huskies on a particularly good day and the Dragons on a bad day? Could be. However I think St. Cloud is a much more physical team and that should allow them just enough edge to get a win on the road.

Augustana at Southwest Minnesota State - Before last week SMSU seemed to be putting some things together, then they lost to a Concordia team that I thought they easily should have won against. Augie also lost, but to a much better Winona team. I think the Augie air attack is a really bad matchup for SMSU's passing defense, which will probably spell a long day for the Mustangs.

I think Mankato may have thought Augustana and Winona gave them their toughest tests of the season since they both had 4th quarter leads and Mankato needed to come back late to win them both. Winona dominated the first half even though they had a number of key players out. A costly interception inside the 5 turned the game around for MSU. Augustana not having their QB in the game for the 2 pt conversion to tie didn't help them either. I think those both could have been losses for MSU. USF never had a lead against Mankato. USF finished about right in the standings for the team they had.

You have posted a number of times that you thought USF gave Winona the game. I wasn't impressed with USF with the exception of Watson. He was a very good running back but that was about it. Winona had 4 turnovers in that game to 1 for USF along with some key penalties. They led to all the points for USF which I thought Winona was trying to give the game away but they held on despite losing more key players. If you think losing 11 starters, playing 2 top 10 teams close and still finishing with at least 7 maybe 8 wins is under performing than I think we have 2 very different opinions. For the number of young players WSU had playing this year and maybe getting to 8 wins is overachieving. I like our chances next year since so many young players stepped up and played key minutes most of the season that will help them next year for sure. It won't hurt that Gomez and Pridgeon have already applied for medical redshirts and should be returning next year as well.

[Tundra_Man]

Re: NSIC Pick'Em Week #11 - Chat

I think Mankato may have thought Augustana and Winona gave them their toughest tests of the season since they both had 4th quarter leads and Mankato needed to come back late to win them both. Winona dominated the first half even though they had a number of key players out. A costly interception inside the 5 turned the game around for MSU. Augustana not having their QB in the game for the 2 pt conversion to tie didn't help them either. I think those both could have been losses for MSU. USF never had a lead against Mankato. USF finished about right in the standings for the team they had.

You have posted a number of times that you thought USF gave Winona the game. I wasn't impressed with USF with the exception of Watson. He was a very good running back but that was about it. Winona had 4 turnovers in that game to 1 for USF along with some key penalties. They led to all the points for USF which I thought Winona was trying to give the game away but they held on despite losing more key players. If you think losing 11 starters, playing 2 top 10 teams close and still finishing with at least 7 maybe 8 wins is under performing than I think we have 2 very different opinions. For the number of young players WSU had playing this year and maybe getting to 8 wins is overachieving. I like our chances next year since so many young players stepped up and played key minutes most of the season that will help them next year for sure. It won't hurt that Gomez and Pridgeon have already applied for medical redshirts and should be returning next year as well.

Hence my use of the word "arguably" toughest game of the season. Augie, Winona and Sioux Falls all gave Mankato their biggest tests of the season. One could argue which one was the toughest based on various facets.

And by "underperforming" I was basing on what most people thought Winona's record would be prior to the season's start. Injuries have been a huge factor in that record, which I have mentioned repeatedly on other chat threads but didn't this time because I figured I was beating a dead horse. Perhaps "underperforming" was a bad word choice, but basically back in August me and most everyone else assumed at this point in the season Winona would have been in the playoff hunt.

And regardless, I still think USF gave Winona that game. I forgot how many kicks we missed in that game, including the one at the end that would have sealed a victory. It was a shanked kick, not a block. Totally on USF for losing that one.

[OldSchool]

Re: NSIC Pick'Em Week #11 - Chat

Hence my use of the word "arguably" toughest game of the season. Augie, Winona and Sioux Falls all gave Mankato their biggest tests of the season. One could argue which one was the toughest based on various facets.

And by "underperforming" I was basing on what most people thought Winona's record would be prior to the season's start. Injuries have been a huge factor in that record, which I have mentioned repeatedly on other chat threads but didn't this time because I figured I was beating a dead horse. Perhaps "underperforming" was a bad word choice, but basically back in August me and most everyone else assumed at this point in the season Winona would have been in the playoff hunt.

And regardless, I still think USF gave Winona that game. I forgot how many kicks we missed in that game, including the one at the end that would have sealed a victory. It was a shanked kick, not a block. Totally on USF for losing that one.

If you hadn't been saying all year that the USF kept giving their games away and then played the MSU the toughest of all the other teams I wouldn't have said anything. With never owning up to a loss just got to be a little much. If Winona didn't have so many key injuries they would have been in the playoffs. Most teams have good backups but it is tough to replace some of the key players like captains and all conference players with Fr and So players. They were getting things figured out after a few games but it cost them in the interum but will help them next year. Without the UIU debacle they still would have made the post season. We took 5 points off the board at UIU by penalties. It has been a problem for us all year.

You missed 2 kicks and had one blocked. I guess the turnovers that led to your points were just great plays on your part and not mistakes by WSU?? I still think USF was overrated and Winona tried to give the game away. It wasn't just one play that made the difference, WSU left a lot of opportunities on the field with turnovers and penalties that gave USF the chance to kick a FG at the end. This years USF team was not as good as the last few years but they were not just giving the games away, they got beat and finished about right.

[StateU]

Re: NSIC Pick'Em Week #11 - Chat

I wish the Huskies a boatload of luck
I won't be there cuz it's cold as f*ck

(Inspired by Quentin44)

[Matt Witwicki]

Re: NSIC Pick'Em Week #11 - Chat

If you hadn't been saying all year that the USF kept giving their games away and then played the MSU the toughest of all the other teams I wouldn't have said anything. With never owning up to a loss just got to be a little much. If Winona didn't have so many key injuries they would have been in the playoffs. Most teams have good backups but it is tough to replace some of the key players like captains and all conference players with Fr and So players. They were getting things figured out after a few games but it cost them in the interum but will help them next year. Without the UIU debacle they still would have made the post season. We took 5 points off the board at UIU by penalties. It has been a problem for us all year.

You missed 2 kicks and had one blocked. I guess the turnovers that led to your points were just great plays on your part and not mistakes by WSU?? I still think USF was overrated and Winona tried to give the game away. It wasn't just one play that made the difference, WSU left a lot of opportunities on the field with turnovers and penalties that gave USF the chance to kick a FG at the end. This years USF team was not as good as the last few years but they were not just giving the games away, they got beat and finished about right.

USF missed 3FG in the WSU game....they make 1 of them, they win. That was when WSU was healthier than they were in the back half of the year. I think most people would've take USF to beat WSU 7 outta 10 if they played weekly throughout the year. Neither team was as good as the year previous. Neither looked good when they played each other as well..but the opponent has a lot to do with that. When you don't convert on any of 3 FG attempts and lose by 1pt, you blame yourself. When you are up 21-3 at BSU in the 3rd quarter and lose, you blame yourself. SCSU....they just beat USF IMO....but 2 games right there..if USF takes care of business, they are on the 6 line for the playoffs right now, as their SOS is very high. But..that's the difference between taking care of your business and not finishing games.

The difference between USF and WSU both playing Mankato was that USF played the Mavs hard in the 2nd half while Winona was up at half and was dominated in the 2nd half. Watching USF destroy teams like UIU and Augie, while Winona lost to the Peacocks and struggled to beat AU....that kinda stuff also suggests that looking at the entire year, USF was the better team and played the tougher schedule (per the SOS).

Like you've mentioned, WSU had a lot of key injuries this year..and I've documented that from the moment it started..losing 3 of captains in the first month of the season. Like you, I thought WSU would be right in the playoff race..but their own inability to finish UIU sunk their boat certainly.

Sometimes it's not as easy as "we beat you" to critically assess how good a team was in a given year. You don't hear me saying UIU is better than BSU or WSU..and they beat both of those squads head-up....instead you look at the entire year, how teams played against the best teams, and so forth.

My thoughts.

[Matt Witwicki]

Re: NSIC Pick'Em Week #11 - Chat

http://www.d2football.com/forum/entry.php?b=2329

[msumavfan]

Re: NSIC Pick'Em Week #11 - Chat

What are some other games around the region that are of significance to the postseason?

[WSUWarriorFan]

Re: NSIC Pick'Em Week #11 - Chat

Got the WSU streaming up late, apparently the entire Concordia team stomped on the Warrior logo before the game resulting in a penalty.

[Twincitiesmav]

Re: NSIC Pick'Em Week #11 - Chat

Got the WSU streaming up late, apparently the entire Concordia team stomped on the Warrior logo before the game resulting in a penalty.

HAHAHAHAHAHAHAHAHAHAHAHAHAHAHAHAHAH THATS GOLD!!!!:laugh:

[SW_Mustang]

Re: NSIC Pick'Em Week #11 - Chat

Blake Gimbel breaks Jeff Loots' career pssing yards record.

[WSUWarriorFan]

Re: NSIC Pick'Em Week #11 - Chat

HAHAHAHAHAHAHAHAHAHAHAHAHAHAHAHAHAH THATS GOLD!!!!:laugh:

https://winonastatewarriors.com/side...l/play-by-play.

Go all the way to the start of the game. Never seen a drive chart start like that.

[SW_Mustang]

Re: NSIC Pick'Em Week #11 - Chat

AU 14, SMSU 3 2nd QTR

[SW_Mustang]

Re: NSIC Pick'Em Week #11 - Chat

AU 14, SMSU 3 2nd QTR

At the half.

[NSU4LIFE]

Re: NSIC Pick'Em Week #11 - Chat

Mankato, when you meet up, I hope you beat UMD by fifty...tuned in your watch a little of the game and this guy they have on their is just awful...the way he is talking right now has me bailing on my North brothers this post season.

[SW_Mustang]

Re: NSIC Pick'Em Week #11 - Chat

AU 14, SMSU 11 1:41 3rd