A Dummy’s Observations on WLU at Fairmont State 2/15/25 #10 WLU 81 #11 Fairmont 77
Fairmont State (FS) Game Plan
FS has talented, athletic 1-on-1 scorers. FS plays excellent defense. They have two ex-D1 players in ex-WVU Thweatt (r-jr. 6-7 225 lbs. 12.2 ppg, 22.5 mins), ex-UT Chattanooga Fitzgibbons (graduate 6-0 160 lbs., 11.3 ppg, 26.4 mins, 37% 3FG). Their best overall player is Jolinder (jr., 6-6 205 lbs., 17.2 ppg, 32.6 mins, 25% 3FG). Harris from Notre Dame College is a great 1-on-1 scorer at the rim (Sr. 6-4 195 lbs., 16.1ppg, 21.6% 3FG). Tommy Williams is a smart, glue player that plays with great effort (graduate 6-2 190 lbs. 8.4 ppg, 31.7 mins. 30.2% 3FG). The main 3FG threat is Emich (graduate 6-6 205 lbs. 8.3 ppg, 19.1 mins, 43.8% 3FG).
The FS strategy seemed to be: play deliberately, play aggressive half-court defense, attack WLU’s taller players, control the boards, and score efficiently, with the goal of offsetting any WLU advantage in turnovers.
• PASSED –Hold the score to the 70s or 80s by starting their offense with about 15 seconds remaining on shot clock. They held WLU to 29 points in the first half.
• PASSED - Attack the rim on offense, leveraging their height and athletic advantage with Harris, Jolinder and Thweatt. Look to kick out for the open three.
• PASSED – Mix up defenses to keep WLU off balance. Although typically man-to-man, use 2-3 and drop point zone. It will also allow time to rest players on defense.
• PASSED – Shoot at their average from three. They shot 9-25 or 36%, which is above their average of 33%. They were at their average FG%, shooting a very good 48%.
• PASSED– Use their height advantage to win the rebounding battle. They dominated the boards, especially in the first half. However, WLU improved in the second half, partially aided by FS fatigue. FS got 74% of defensive rebounds, while WLU was a poor 50% (the median D1 defensive rebounding is 72%).
• PASSED– Keep WLU off the offensive glass. FS garnered an outstanding 50% of potential offensive rebounds. WLU had a subpar 26%. The 90th percentile in D1 is 33%.
• FAILED – Try to get WLU taller players in foul trouble to get them out of the game. Harper had 4 fouls in 34 minutes, and Woodward 3 fouls in 25 minutes.
• FAILED– Draw fouls and get to the FT line. WLU was disciplined in not fouling when they were at a disadvantage at the rim. FS was 6-11 FTs (55%, far below their average of 76%, probably due to fatigue). WLU was 6-8 FTs (75%). FS committed 12 fouls and WLU 13 fouls. The officials allowed a very physical game.
• FAILED – Defend the 3-pt shot from WLU. In the first half, FS was exerting tremendous energy with great defensive pressure in the half court, and overplaying to limit the rapid WLU passing that often leads to open looks early in the shot clock. But fatigue slowed their close-outs in the second half.
• FAILED – Take care of the ball and avoid getting sped up in their game. FS had 24 turnovers, which led to 19 WLU points. WLU had a high (for them) 15 turnovers, partly due to the quick hands and overplaying defense of FS. In the second half, WLU scored 52 points, which was ahead of a 97 ppg pace.
Comments on the WLU victory
This was a tale of two halves. This was Alumni and Senior Recognition night at Fairmont. In the first half, FS was playing great defense and scoring both inside and outside. Thweatt and Harris were dominating inside and FS was dominating WLU on the offensive and defensive rebounds. WLU was generating 11 FS turnovers, but only had limited success in capitalizing on them. FS was expending tremendous amounts of energy on both offense and defense. FS led by 12, 41-29 at the half.
However, there were storm clouds on the horizon. Jolinder, Williams and Harris had played heavy minutes in the first half. In contrast, WLU subbed much more frequently, avoiding extended periods of play. Furthermore, there were few stoppages in play for foul shots by either team, which accelerated the onset of fatigue.
The question was: could FS continue to defend and attack with the same intensity in the second half?
The answer became apparent early in the second half. FS had lost a step on offense and defense. They were also making unforced turnovers, which is an indication of mental fatigue. In the first 5 minutes of the second half, WLU went on a 15-3 run to tie the game at 44-44. FS was no longer dominating the boards and their shooting % declined. The game seesawed back and forth until WLU took the lead for good at 58-57 with 8:32 remaining. By the 7:07 mark, WLU led 64-57. FS just did not have the energy of the first half and although WLU was not shooting great, they were getting second chance points and open looks. With 53 seconds, WLU led 74-73 when a WLU 3 pointer with 31 seconds turned the game into a FT contest. Four subsequent pressure WLU free throws sealed the victory at 81-77.
Keys to Victory
WLU showed tremendous heart and determination. WLU just keeps coming at you.
• Everyone was playing with great effort. They had 22 assists on 31 made goals, which is an amazing 71%. The 90th percentile for D1 is 59%. WLU had a subpar (for them) 1.47 assist to turnover ratio (due to 15 turnovers) compared to a horrendous 0.54 for FS. The 90th percentile for D1 is 1.48.
• WLU committed 15 turnovers on 20% of possessions (which is average, as typical D1 is 15 to 20%), while FS had 24 turnovers on 30% of possessions.
• WLU did a great job in refraining from fouling on dribble drives when the opponent had the advantage, even if they scored. This high basketball IQ play is critical in a close game to avoid and-ones and foul trouble.
• WLU filled their lanes in transition and played at a rapid pace in the second half, resulting in numbers in transition, which wore out FS. Consequently, FS made mental errors, their rebounding dominance decreased, and they missed open looks that they would normally make.
Areas for Improvement for WLU
• When a team switches to a zone, WLU needs to recognize and adjust a little faster in real time. It took them a couple of possessions to adjust.
• If WLU meets FS in the MEC tourney, they will need to slow down Harris and Thweatt, and avoid size mismatches inside on switches.
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