Atlantic Region - 2019-20

[boatcapt]

Presidents Day Special

I've been looking at all things Massey and what they use to come up with their various predictive tools. Basically, their Rankings are based on the games a team has played and how they preformed in those games compared to all other DII teams. In effect, it is a "reward" for past performance (games that have already been played). The current Top 10 for the Atlantic Region are:

1. IUP
2. WLU
3. Ship
4. Charleston
5. Va State
6. Fairmont
7. Hurst
8. Cal
9. UPJ
10. JC Smith

But Massey also has another Ranking that few pay much attention to, that being their Power Ranking (Or PWR). The Power Ranking is the true predictive tool in Massey in that it looks at and quantifies past performance and attempts to predict future results. Massey's Top 10 Power Ranking for the Atlantic currently stand at:

1. WLU
2. IUP
3. Ship
4. Charleston
5. Va State
6. Hurst
7. Cal
8. ESU
9. Fayetville
10. Va Union

Sooooo...if you are rewarding a team for how they have played thus far in the season, use the Rankings. But if you are trying to predict the future and win a Washington or Lincoln or two on this Presidents Day, use the Power Rankings!

[IUPbigINDIANS]

Updated Atlantic Region WOMEN'S race:

IUP (17-2, 22-2)
Bowie State (11-2, 21-3)
Notre Dame (15-3, 21-3)
Virginia Unioin (11-2, 20-3)
Lincoln (12-2, 23-4)
Glenville State (16-2, 20-4)
Charleston (15-3, 20-4)
Gannon (15-4, 19-6)
Shepherd (12-6, 18-6)
Shippensburg (15-4, 18-7)
California (11-7, 17-7)
East Stroudsburg (12-6, 16-8)
Edinboro (12-6, 14-8)

[IUPbigINDIANS]

Updated Atlantic Region MEN'S race:

(listed by number of losses -- with 8 losses as the cut-off)

IUP (16-2, 21-2)
West Liberty (15-3, 20-4)
Shippensburg (16-3, 20-5)
Charleston (13-5, 19-5)
Fairmont State (13-5, 18-5)
UPJ (14-5, 20-6)
West Virginia State (12-6, 17-6)
Virginia State (12-2, 19-7)
Fayetteville State (8-7, 19-7)
Johnson C. Smith (11-4, 17-7)
Mercyhurst (13-5, 15-7)
California (12-6, 16-8)
West Chester (10-8, 16-8)
East Stroudsburg (11-7, 15-8)

[Ship69]

I expected the Millersville-Ship game to be a lot tighter last night. Ville got off to a slow start, and it quickly turned into a rout, never closer than 16 points the second half. It was so one-sided that Stitzel even quit complaining about calls for the most part.

[IUPbigINDIANS]

Lots of basketball left to be played, but, man, you can just feel that a Bowie is going to crash the party this year and send everything into a tailspin. With that wild CIAA tourney yet to be played, you gotta do everything you can to avoid sitting in that 7th or 8th slot in the region this year!

I wouldn't bet on the CIAA Tournament even with your money. LOL. I'm already pretty much assuming something crazy will happen. Both Bowie State and Virginia Union are more than capable of a run -- they've done it before. Winston-Salem State is another one.

Where it could get real crazy is if the CIAA gets two teams in outright and then has a wild-card win the Tournament. That's possible. If they'd get three in ... chaos.

Virginia State has 7 losses but they are going to grade out well in the metrics. Same with Fayetteville State. If actual regional rankings came out today I think both are in the Top 8.

[Scrub]

Lots of basketball left to be played, but, man, you can just feel that a Bowie is going to crash the party this year and send everything into a tailspin. With that wild CIAA tourney yet to be played, you gotta do everything you can to avoid sitting in that 7th or 8th slot in the region this year!

[IUPbigINDIANS]

Updated Atlantic Region Men's Race (using 8 losses as the cut-off)

(ranked in order of losses only)

IUP (15-2, 20-2)
Shippensburg (16-2, 20-4)
West Liberty (14-3, 19-4)
Charleston (12-5, 18-5)
Fairmont State (12-5, 17-5)
Pitt-Johnstown (13-5, 19-6)
Fayetteville State (7-6, 18-6)
West Virginia State (10-6, 15-6)
Virginia State (10-2, 17-7)
Johnson C. Smith (10-4, 16-7)
Mercyhurst (13-5, 15-7)
California (11-6, 15-8)
East Stroudsburg (11-7, 15-8)
West Chester (9-8, 15-8)

[IUPalum]

This Cal feed blows!!!

[boatcapt]

It is a factor. However, I tend to be a believer in the BOAT theory that nothing ultimately hurts more than losses.

My personal opinion is Cal is a worthy team -- and very well may beat IUP tomorrow night in the Angelo Dome. That said, it always goes back to November. People say 'its early' ... blah blah blah. That's total garbage thinking. Losses on opening weekend -- as Cal suffered -- count just the same.

Boat has long argued that a win over a 3-23 team is still better than a loss to a 23-3 team. And, he's proved it in the metrics. SOS always gets a lot of hype this time of the year but I think to a large degree ... that's all it is. Hype.

Nobody knows this better than IUP fans. For years Joe liked to play a He-Man schedule in the non-conference. And, they'd lose one here and there. They missed two NCAAs because of it in the past decade ... where one win over anybody instead of that 'good loss' would have sent them dancing.

Years when the league is good -- like this one -- you can make a case there's no point in playing more than one good OOC game. In Cal's example this year they already have to play IUP, UPJ, Mercyhurst and Gannon all twice. That's 8 quality games right there. Not to mention another couple in crossover. So, playing a Bowie State and Charleston to open the season does come with risk. Cal lost those two games by 3 combined points. Had you won those two ... the Vulcans could be as high as a 4 seed right now.

A wild Regional awaits. There won't be an easy game on the board. And, wait until Mercyhurst gets that 7 or 8 seed and no doubt wins in Round 1.

I just woke up from being unconcious after reading the IUPBIGIndians agrees with me!!

[jrshooter]

Herb Magee apparently still has it at age 78 and in his 53rd season as head coach and 61st if you include his tenure as a player and assistant coach! Wow.

Three guys averaging 15+, average winning margin of 12 points. That's always a good place to start.

[Golden89]

Of note: Jefferson (PA) is ranked No. 10 and is currently 20-2.

Herb Magee apparently still has it at age 78 and in his 53rd season as head coach and 61st if you include his tenure as a player and assistant coach! Wow.

[Ship69]

Welcome back to the Raiders. I still think Ship has been more deserving of exposure throughout the season than they've been getting.

And Jefferson, despite being in PA, would play in the East Regional because of their New York conference affiliation, right?

Well, we'll see if they stay there. A couple of tough road games coming up.

[IUPbigINDIANS]

Welcome back to the Raiders. I still think Ship has been more deserving of exposure throughout the season than they've been getting.

And Jefferson, despite being in PA, would play in the East Regional because of their New York conference affiliation, right?

Correct. I just listed them as they are close to some East schools.

[Scrub]

This week's national poll:

9. IUP
24. Shippensburg
25. West Liberty

Votes: UPJ

Out: Charleston


Of note: Jefferson (PA) is ranked No. 10 and is currently 20-2.

Welcome back to the Raiders. I still think Ship has been more deserving of exposure throughout the season than they've been getting.

And Jefferson, despite being in PA, would play in the East Regional because of their New York conference affiliation, right?

[IUPbigINDIANS]

This week's national poll:

9. IUP
24. Shippensburg
25. West Liberty

Votes: UPJ

Out: Charleston


Of note: Jefferson (PA) is ranked No. 10 and is currently 20-2.