Atlantic NCAA Tourney

[WKYDave]

It may not have been that the committee had Findlay out, so to speak. It may be that they had Findlay slotted at #5 (with Fairmont at #6) heading into the final days of the tournament. But once Fairmont won the MEC tourney and auto-bid, that no longer made them capable of being bumped by Malone. Hence, FSU moves up to #5 to make room for Cinderella Malone and Findlay necessarily drops down to #7. In other words, Findlay didn't fall from 3 to 7 (a precipitous fall). They likely fell from 3 to 5 (a reasonable fall after a bad loss), but the unexpected auto-bids in both conferences wiped out the possibility of at-large 5/6 slots.

We are talking about both sides of the same coin.

Because the GMAC had unranked teams win their men's and women's conference tournaments, someone in the top 6 was going to get bumped.

The Question was who?

Would it be the "lowest ranked" GMAC team or an "independent"?

Let's examine how the selection committee ranked the teams last week and how those teams did last week. * - Regular Season Champ or Tournament Finalist














Walsh
Gannon




#5 Mercyhurst not playing at all vaults them over #3 Findlay who lost in semis on neutral court to team with 57% final record . Mercyhurst for year was 3-0 against teams with winning records (about 25% of games) and 1-0 against NCAA tournament teams. Findlay was 5-5 against teams with winning records (about 50% of games) and 2-2 against NCAA tournament teams including #1 Hillsdale.

#6 Gannon winning two games (home and away) against a team with a 65% final record is not enough to overtake #5 Walsh who lost in 1^st round at home to 52% final record. Gannon for year was 5-1 against teams with winning records (about 50% of games) and 2-1 against NCAA tournament teams. Walsh was 7-5 against teams with winning records (about 50% of games) and 4-2 against NCAA tournament teams.



And absolutely Findlay had much better case to be taken than Walsh if a split was decided. There just is not a good explanation why Findlay would get passed by Mercyhurst (and drop to #5 before MEC final in your thoughts) , especially if Gannon didn't pass Walsh on Women's side.

[Columbuseer]

Think there is human judgment involved to pick 6 best teams; otherwise just have a computer make the selection.
Just a guess, but one cannot win only 50% of time against teams with winning records. Cedarville was a bad loss too.
Hurst was projected to be loaded and challenge in psac if this were a normal year and provides a strong rep from psac. If they were an undefeated bottom feeder they would not have made it imho.
I wish we had 8 teams in regional. Friends told me that kwu had most talent in Gmac, but covid wiped them out. They still nearly beat cedarville.

[Scrub]

Do we know if it's the same committee on the men's and women's side, or separate committees? If separate, I suppose there's no inherent expectation of consistency across both men's and women's selections.

I absolutely see what Dave is suggesting here. And the best explanation is likely the one Columbus cites above. Mercyhurst is, by all accounts, a strong team who was, reputationally, expected to be a force in a good PSAC conference. Findlay has every right to be upset about a team getting in over them seemingly on reputation alone.

I suppose the men's committee is looking to reward good teams who persevered through the season and they may also be trying to get relatively equivalent representation among conferences.

The crap show of the East bracket is evidence enough that the men's committee went soft on teams who persevered without the support of a conference. And again, if Findlay is looking East at that Nyack team, they have every right to be really fired up.

[IUPbigINDIANS]

Think there is human judgment involved to pick 6 best teams; otherwise just have a computer make the selection.
Just a guess, but one cannot win only 50% of time against teams with winning records. Cedarville was a bad loss too.
Hurst was projected to be loaded and challenge in psac if this were a normal year and provides a strong rep from psac. If they were an undefeated bottom feeder they would not have made it imho.
I wish we had 8 teams in regional. Friends told me that kwu had most talent in Gmac, but covid wiped them out. They still nearly beat cedarville.

Tough situation in a tough year. Mercyhurst got in 11 games and had 7 more wiped out. Give them credit for playing. It wasn't easy to get a schedule as an independent. And, yes, they are very good. My opinion a Top 2 in Region. But, they got a tough draw against a red hot team. And, they haven't really been tested much. Their physicality is a lot to go up against -- paired with that God-awfully annoying defense they run. On a good night you may score 70 on them.

The thing I really like about Gary's style is they don't care who they play ... nor do they change how they play. They make you adapt to them.

Believe me, we beat them a lot more than they beat us. But goodness they are annoying to play.

[boatcapt]

Think there is human judgment involved to pick 6 best teams; otherwise just have a computer make the selection.
Just a guess, but one cannot win only 50% of time against teams with winning records. Cedarville was a bad loss too.
Hurst was projected to be loaded and challenge in psac if this were a normal year and provides a strong rep from psac. If they were an undefeated bottom feeder they would not have made it imho.
I wish we had 8 teams in regional. Friends told me that kwu had most talent in Gmac, but covid wiped them out. They still nearly beat cedarville.

There absolutely is human judgment in the NCAA playoff selection and with human judgment comes human bias. The NCAA tries to give the patina of fairness and imparciality when in fact all teams are not treated equally. Hurst can go 11-0 against a bad collection of teams and get a #4 Tourney seed while a team like say Bluefield State could play the exact same slate and achieve the same results and they probably would not even receive a Tourney spot. If Bluefield fans objected, people will probably site a lack of Strength of Schedule and the fact that they only played the minimum number of games as the reason Bluefield didn't deserve to be in.

Bottom line, teams should be evaluated on what they do in each season without regard for their previous history OR preseason expectations. If team A plays a tough schedule and wins, they should make the playoffs even if they have been bad for years before that season...Team B should not receive "extra credit" just because they have been to the Tourney for the last few seasons and/or were highly regarded by the coaches or the media before the season began.

[Scrub]

There absolutely is human judgment in the NCAA playoff selection and with human judgment comes human bias. The NCAA tries to give the patina of fairness and imparciality when in fact all teams are not treated equally. Hurst can go 11-0 against a bad collection of teams and get a #4 Tourney seed while a team like say Bluefield State could play the exact same slate and achieve the same results and they probably would not even receive a Tourney spot. If Bluefield fans objected, people will probably site a lack of Strength of Schedule and the fact that they only played the minimum number of games as the reason Bluefield didn't deserve to be in.

Bottom line, teams should be evaluated on what they do in each season without regard for their previous history OR preseason expectations. If team A plays a tough schedule and wins, they should make the playoffs even if they have been bad for years before that season...Team B should not receive "extra credit" just because they have been to the Tourney for the last few seasons and/or were highly regarded by the coaches or the media before the season began.

You're not wrong on the face of it. But this actually depends on what the committee's actual charge is.

a. If the committee's charge is to reward the teams that played the best seasons, then Mercyhurst might not be among the 48 teams who played the best seasons using those objective measures (SOS etc.) and neither would Bluefield be in your example.

b. If the committee's charge is to find the 48 best teams (auto-bids notwithstanding) to compete for a championship, then Mercyhurst is 100% among those 48 best (regardless of whether they went 11-0 against the likes of D'Youville). And Bluefield wouldn't be among the 48 best even if they went 11-0 against the likes of D'Youville.

So, objectively, you're not wrong. But it's really about how the committee views their task. Judging by the result, I'm guessing the committee views their task as the latter.

[Columbuseer]

In this crazy season, computer models break down, and human judgment plays a larger role. Also, if one looks deeper into hurst's schedule, it becomes apparent that the mantra of " they only played nobodies" simply is not true.


1. Hurst beat roberts wesleyan by 32, who lost to #1 seed st. thomas acquinas by five in both games and defeated #2 seed daemen.
2. Hurst beat #5 seed ashland by 14 who defeated #2 seed michigan tech in tourney.
3. Game with #2 seed daemen was cancelled.

being an independent and with games with psac powers out of the picture, I think they did an admirable job in finding some quality opponents. If the mec had opted out , could wlu have found better opponents as an independent and would we have been complaining if they were 11-0 against the same opponents?

[Chuck Norris]

There absolutely is human judgment in the NCAA playoff selection and with human judgment comes human bias. The NCAA tries to give the patina of fairness and imparciality when in fact all teams are not treated equally. Hurst can go 11-0 against a bad collection of teams and get a #4 Tourney seed while a team like say Bluefield State could play the exact same slate and achieve the same results and they probably would not even receive a Tourney spot. If Bluefield fans objected, people will probably site a lack of Strength of Schedule and the fact that they only played the minimum number of games as the reason Bluefield didn't deserve to be in.

Bottom line, teams should be evaluated on what they do in each season without regard for their previous history OR preseason expectations. If team A plays a tough schedule and wins, they should make the playoffs even if they have been bad for years before that season...Team B should not receive "extra credit" just because they have been to the Tourney for the last few seasons and/or were highly regarded by the coaches or the media before the season began.

[Columbuseer]

Great point about Findlay. In 2007 they beat nationally ranked Ohio state in exhibition. 1.5 years later they won national title at 36-0. Their former coach was incredible! I went to many Findlay games before I got hooked on wlu style of play.

[boatcapt]

It's not just this Covid year we're the NCAA has waived its wand of subjectivity. They do it every year. They put out a list of selection criteria to give the illusion that every team is being graded against the same objective standards but give no explanations of how they determined who is seeded where. And it's not like they are even consistent from year to year. One year W/L% seems to be the most important, next year SOS seems to be the #1 criteria, next year it seems to be PI. Leads you to believe that every year they are picking the criteria that gets them the result they want.

[Scrub]

Not to get Boat started on his arbitrariness of seeding argument again . . . but . . .

Did anyone notice the importance of the bye? West Liberty is one of only 3 teams that played on the first day of the tournament who are still playing. #3 WLU is still playing. #4 Emmanuel is still playing. And #5 Northwest Nazarene (who upset overall #1 Colorado Mesa) is still playing. That's it. EVERY other team remaining is a 1 or 2 seed.

[Columbuseer]

Not to get Boat started on his arbitrariness of seeding argument again . . . but . . .

Did anyone notice the importance of the bye? West Liberty is one of only 3 teams that played on the first day of the tournament who are still playing. #3 WLU is still playing. #4 Emmanuel is still playing. And #5 Northwest Nazarene (who upset overall #1 Colorado Mesa) is still playing. That's it. EVERY other team remaining is a 1 or 2 seed.

[boatcapt]

Not to get Boat started on his arbitrariness of seeding argument again . . . but . . .

Did anyone notice the importance of the bye? West Liberty is one of only 3 teams that played on the first day of the tournament who are still playing. #3 WLU is still playing. #4 Emmanuel is still playing. And #5 Northwest Nazarene (who upset overall #1 Colorado Mesa) is still playing. That's it. EVERY other team remaining is a 1 or 2 seed.

I think it is more that the 3-6 seeded teams are playing the 1 and 2 seeded team. But yea, I would imagine that playing that first game could have a small impact.

[Scrub]

I just don't think the tourney is usually this "chalky." Which leads me to believe either a) the bye was really valuable, or b) there was significant differential between "elite" teams and "good" teams in a year with starts-and-stops and short schedules.

[IUPbigINDIANS]

Hard to say. It's pretty rare for Regional Final Four Sunday to have two boring games (blowouts).

In general, I'd say that bye was a huge advantage. Not so much in the legs, but just simply the fact of avoiding a potential loss. They also got to sit in the bleachers and watch their potential opponent in person. Most years all 8 teams are very good and the 8 (while it rarely happens) is capable of knocking off the top seed. Legs-wise, they get today off. These are young kids. One day of rest and they'll be fine.

I'm not buying in to the WL is the underdog theory. They are the 'home' team despite being the 'away' team tomorrow night. That's a huge advantage. Hillsdale was built to play a "Mercyhurst Style" game. Will they get sucked in to playing 110 mph? We'll see. Whomever controls the tempo tomorrow night wins. I think it's that simple.