WAAAAAAYYYY too early Regional Rankings

[GrifFan]

Re: WAAAAAAYYYY too early Regional Rankings

You're certainly welcome to your opinion and observations and to share them as you see fit. It's just funny to me that you try to tell me it's an outlier for NW but indicative of deep problems for MW.

I may have exaggerated Northwest's prowess, but not my much. My honest take: they are clearly the class of the conference, and will probably clinch the title well before that last game at Washburn unless things change dramatically. In the 20+ years I've been watching the conference, guard play is the best predictor of success, and I think you were the one that said Northwest has the best backcourt in the conference (if not, forgive me - all you GreenHats look alike). That doesn't mean they'll go undefeated of course; any given night - the wrong player gets food poisoning or the flu or foul trouble or just has an off night - but unless a key player or three are out for a significant amount of time they will win the conference. Regionally, I haven't seen as many teams but just looking at the numbers it seems pretty clear already the regional will go through Maryville.

I've been wrong before. If I'm wrong now and the Bearcats flame out, I can't say I'll lose much sleep over my lack of expertise. ;)

[NSU4LIFE]

Re: WAAAAAAYYYY too early Regional Rankings

"Shtick" good one. OR...its his personality that he has had since I first met him in 2004, so probably longer. I'm not a high energy guy and it isn't for everyone. But it's contagious and people are drawn to him as they get to know him.

[86Catillac]

Re: WAAAAAAYYYY too early Regional Rankings

"Shtick" good one. OR...its his personality that he has had since I first met him in 2004, so probably longer. I'm not a high energy guy and it isn't for everyone. But it's contagious and people are drawn to him as they get to know him.

I can see that. He seems like a nice enuf fella. I prefer him over the last MW coach.

[Thepeman]

Re: WAAAAAAYYYY too early Regional Rankings

Why was the MW coach screaming and yelling at #5? He took him out of the game and looked like he was reading him the riot act.

Just watched a replay of the game and backed it up a couple of times to the point of #5's exit by his coach. It looked like he may have lost some focus and made a dumb foul. Sundance did not like what he was doing at that point and pulled him. Please understand, this is only my observation and in listening to Tom Smith talk about the situation seems like a good response.

[Thunder]

Re: WAAAAAAYYYY too early Regional Rankings

Here are the 15 teams that I think have a shot at the regional. It's crazy just how close 2-15 in the region are.

1 Northwest Missouri State
2 Washburn
3 Southern Nazarene
4 Northern State
5 Missouri Southern
6 Minnesota State
7 Wayne State (Neb.)
8 St. Cloud State
9 Pittsburg State
10 Sioux Falls
11 Lincoln (Mo.)
12 Southern Arkansas
13 Augustana
14 Fort Hays State
15 MSU Moorhead

[Btech#3]

Re: WAAAAAAYYYY too early Regional Rankings

Yes, 2 thru 15 have been close all year. The top 15 is made up of 7 NSIC schools, 6 MIAA schools and 2 GAC schools. There is a lot of basketball to be played so these 14 schools (excluding NWMS) will jockey around alot. 9 or 10 games left on the schedule for everyone. Should be an exciting 5 weeks. From the MIAA's prospective, the MIAA post-season tourney should be very competitive with 5 schools fighting probably for 2 spots.

[simple as a $3 bill]

Re: WAAAAAAYYYY too early Regional Rankings

Here are the 15 teams that I think have a shot at the regional. It's crazy just how close 2-15 in the region are.

1 Northwest Missouri State
2 Washburn
3 Southern Nazarene
4 Northern State
5 Missouri Southern
6 Minnesota State
7 Wayne State (Neb.)
8 St. Cloud State
9 Pittsburg State
10 Sioux Falls
11 Lincoln (Mo.)
12 Southern Arkansas
13 Augustana
14 Fort Hays State
15 MSU Moorhead

4 NSIC teams, man that's optimistic. I'm only seeing maybe 2 and the second, after Northern, probably has to win out from this point, and I don't see any of the teams being able to do that.

[GrifFan]

Re: WAAAAAAYYYY too early Regional Rankings

schnautza's latest PI. Apologies if I accidentally deleted anybody.

2	Northwest Missouri State	Central	MIAA	16-0	100.00%	17.38	47.17%	54.89%	15-0	100.00%
15	Southern Nazarene	Central	GAC	17-3	85.00%	15.50	45.77%	50.84%	16-3	84.21%
18	Washburn	Central	MIAA	12-4	75.00%	15.44	57.38%	51.71%	11-4	73.33%
31	Northern State	Central	NSIC	15-5	75.00%	14.75	50.65%	51.03%	14-5	73.68%
34	Missouri Southern	Central	MIAA	13-4	76.47%	14.65	48.91%	55.00%	13-4	76.47%
47	St. Cloud State	Central	NSIC	13-6	68.42%	14.26	52.22%	51.45%	11-6	64.71%
53	Wayne State (Neb.)	Central	NSIC	12-5	70.59%	14.06	47.64%	51.42%	12-5	70.59%
56	Minnesota State	Central	NSIC	13-6	68.42%	13.95	51.76%	51.58%	12-5	70.59%
57	Pittsburg State	Central	MIAA	12-5	70.59%	13.94	50.39%	53.34%	11-5	68.75%
59	Lincoln (Mo.)	Central	MIAA	11-5	68.75%	13.94	49.80%	51.98%	11-5	68.75%
61	Southern Arkansas	Central	GAC	12-4	75.00%	13.88	44.16%	49.94%	12-4	75.00%
68	Sioux Falls	Central	NSIC	13-6	68.42%	13.63	47.58%	52.09%	13-6	68.42%
79	Augustana	Central	NSIC	12-7	63.16%	13.32	50.25%	49.48%	12-7	63.16%
82	Fort Hays State	Central	MIAA	9-6	60.00%	13.27	53.00%	51.59%	9-6	60.00%
89	East Central	Central	GAC	10-6	62.50%	13.00	51.46%	48.35%	9-6	60.00%
107	Lindenwood	Central	MIAA	8-10	44.44%	12.61	64.25%	49.99%	6-8	42.86%
116	MSU Moorhead	Central	NSIC	9-7	56.25%	12.50	47.61%	52.02%	9-5	64.29%
121	Minnesota Duluth	Central	NSIC	9-7	56.25%	12.44	49.48%	51.26%	9-7	56.25%
123	Henderson State	Central	GAC	9-6	60.00%	12.40	45.37%	49.57%	9-6	60.00%
125	Oklahoma Baptist	Central	GAC	10-7	58.82%	12.35	47.47%	50.16%	10-7	58.82%
125	Northeastern State	Central	MIAA	9-8	52.94%	12.35	53.60%	51.66%	9-8	52.94%
156	Central Missouri	Central	MIAA	8-8	50.00%	11.63	53.23%	52.42%	8-8	50.00%
178	Central Oklahoma	Central	MIAA	6-11	35.29%	11.12	58.52%	50.66%	6-11	35.29%
180	Arkansas-Monticello	Central	GAC	7-8	46.67%	11.07	45.82%	48.55%	7-8	46.67%
182	Minnesota Crookston	Central	NSIC	7-10	41.18%	11.06	50.75%	50.29%	7-10	41.18%
184	Missouri Western	Central	MIAA	9-11	45.00%	11.00	48.40%	53.52%	9-10	47.37%
192	U-Mary	Central	NSIC	7-11	38.89%	10.83	51.80%	49.98%	7-11	38.89%
195	Southwest Minnesota State	Central	NSIC	7-9	43.75%	10.81	50.39%	51.11%	7-9	43.75%
202	Southwest Baptist	Central	MIAA	5-8	38.46%	10.69	52.11%	53.88%	5-8	38.46%
212	Winona State	Central	NSIC	6-11	35.29%	10.47	54.88%	49.61%	6-11	35.29%
216	Ouachita Baptist	Central	GAC	6-9	40.00%	10.27	48.39%	48.56%	6-9	40.00%
222	Emporia State	Central	MIAA	4-11	26.67%	10.00	56.49%	50.84%	4-11	26.67%
225	Nebraska Kearney	Central	MIAA	4-12	25.00%	9.88	57.39%	50.99%	4-12	25.00%
234	Arkansas Tech	Central	GAC	6-12	33.33%	9.72	48.54%	48.92%	6-11	35.29%
238	Minot State	Central	NSIC	5-13	27.78%	9.61	53.79%	50.48%	5-13	27.78%
244	Upper Iowa	Central	NSIC	6-14	30.00%	9.50	51.83%	50.93%	6-14	30.00%
254	Bemidji State	Central	NSIC	4-11	26.67%	9.27	51.61%	50.99%	3-11	21.43%
267	Northwestern Oklahoma State	Central	GAC	5-13	27.78%	8.94	50.99%	48.98%	5-13	27.78%
271	Harding	Central	GAC	3-13	18.75%	8.88	56.04%	47.45%	3-13	18.75%
275	Concordia-St. Paul	Central	NSIC	5-13	27.78%	8.44	48.86%	50.24%	5-11	31.25%
283	Southwestern Oklahoma State	Central	GAC	3-14	17.65%	7.88	50.59%	48.56%	3-14	17.65%

[Thunder]

Re: WAAAAAAYYYY too early Regional Rankings

4 NSIC teams, man that's optimistic. I'm only seeing maybe 2 and the second, after Northern, probably has to win out from this point, and I don't see any of the teams being able to do that.

That is what I thought at first too, but when I actually looked at it I think it's possible. I think the top 3 MIAA teams are in barring a late season collapse, but I don't think Pitt St, Lincoln, or Fort Hays has any stronger resume than the NSIC teams listed. If the NSIC keeps knocking each other off its possible a fourth MIAA or a second GAC team could make it. I've been saying it all year and I will continue to say it, I think everyone else in the region would be happy is St. Cloud stays home in March. They have not played well most of the season, but I still think their ceiling is among the best in the region.

[Btech#3]

Re: WAAAAAAYYYY too early Regional Rankings

Oklahoma Baptist or Southern Arkansas would be the 2nd team from the GAC that has a chance. Oklahoma Baptist lost quite a few games early but they are tied for 1st in the GAC with Southern Nazarene. We played them the 1st game of the year and beat them in OT. They are very talented. They have 7 losses but based on recent results, I think they have a legitimate chance of sneaking in. I think 3 will make it from the MIAA. I think Lincoln and Pitt State have a chance of being one of the three if they finish strong. If MO Southern and Washburn take care of business, I think they will join NWMS in the 8 team regional. The NSIC is really difficult to figure out. Other than Northern State, I am not sure who the other 2 or 3 teams will be from the NSIC. It seems there are several teams very close with similar records with similar resumes.

[MisterWizard]

Re: WAAAAAAYYYY too early Regional Rankings

Start with the GAC. It typically seems like the easiest piece of the puzzle.

Southern Nazarene is legit and assuming they don't have a meltdown, they get in. Currently 17-3. Even with 5 losses plus getting upset in the GAC tourney, I think they make it.

The GAC would get two teams in if someone else wins their tourney, but otherwise I predict the rest of them are losing 6 to 7 games or more and thus barely miss getting a second team in. Southern Arkansas (14-4) has been ranked, but they lost by about 20 to SNU whom they meet again, as well as road games at teams who are 12-6, 11-6, and 11-5.

Prediction: 1 GAC team (and a 2nd if SNU gets upset in conference tourney)

[MisterWizard]

Re: WAAAAAAYYYY too early Regional Rankings

NSIC:

There's no locks here yet. Certainly Northern State (15-5) is sitting pretty at this point in time. I doubt any of us predict they'll fall apart, but are they without Ian Smith for a while?

Will this well-balanced league result in a bunch of teams right around the 20-10 mark? It sort of seems that way. If so, two or three teams are staying home that probably feel they have the same resume' as two or three that get in.

Prediction: 3 NSIC teams get in, but 4 seems like a long shot. You need SNU to win the GAC tourney, and no other surprises in the NSIC and MIAA, and several MIAA teams to be average the rest of the way.

[MisterWizard]

Re: WAAAAAAYYYY too early Regional Rankings

MIAA:

We all know about Northwest.

The question as always it seems is why the MIAA would get four teams in instead of the NSIC. We can all argue that til the cows come home.

For now, the MIAA has five teams (besides NWMO) at 13-5 or better. These teams are going to beat each other up with just half of the league season played thus far. Frankly I think we will basically mirror the records of NSIC teams, who are basically two weeks worth of conference games ahead of us. Excluding NW, we will wind up with one or two other teams in that 22-8 sort of range. I'm not sure we'll have another 20 win, single digit losses kind of finish.

Prediction: besides an autobid, three MIAA teams will make it.

[MisterWizard]

Re: WAAAAAAYYYY too early Regional Rankings

So lastly to summarize the above:

SNU
3 NSIC teams
Northwest plus two other MIAA teams
And the 8th team will be some surprise tourney winner

(And sadly, sorry but I don't feel like I'm telling you anything you didn't already know)

[Moorhead123]

Re: WAAAAAAYYYY too early Regional Rankings

That is what I thought at first too, but when I actually looked at it I think it's possible. I think the top 3 MIAA teams are in barring a late season collapse, but I don't think Pitt St, Lincoln, or Fort Hays has any stronger resume than the NSIC teams listed. If the NSIC keeps knocking each other off its possible a fourth MIAA or a second GAC team could make it. I've been saying it all year and I will continue to say it, I think everyone else in the region would be happy is St. Cloud stays home in March. They have not played well most of the season, but I still think their ceiling is among the best in the region.