Women's Basketball 2024

[Bballfan]

Agreed that the regional weekends are good, BUT a few years ago you had 3 top ten teams in the Midwest (Ashland, Drury, and Grand Valley) that had like 3 -4 losses between all three of them combined and one of those teams didn't even make the regional finals. That is hardly fair. And you can also look at the South Central this year with Texas Women, Lubbock, and Texas Tyler. Three elite teams that were boxed in when any three of those teams would have beat Gannon or Bentley in the Elite Eight. Union made it to semis this year, but Union lost to Ashland by 26 in the regular season. How good really was Union?

I could cite a lot more examples, but I think better teams on the national stage is really needed. As you said, the regional final is often better than the first game of the Elite Eight (Grand Valley, Pittsburg State, and Lubbock would all agree with that statement this year for sure). Let's get those better matchups happening at the Elite Eight level!

[LukeMcConnell1]

Going to regional tournaments the last few years, I've become less convicted about de-regionalization. I would really like a more legitimate Elite Eight, but the Regional tournaments are a really fun weekend, especially if the host makes a run to the regional final. The tradeoff of finally getting the best teams in will be losing the Monday (men Tuesday) of regional championship games that are usually better than most of what Elite Eight produces.

Of course, if they change it, I can't see myself being disappointed when deserving Central and West Region teams are finally getting in and there's a chance for multiple top teams to make the last weekend.

I don't think you'll lose that at all. There will still be eight regions and a regional championship. The participants in those won't be predetermined in de-regionalization like they are now. It might hurt attendance from non-host schools sometimes, but I can't imagine the actual structure of the tournament will change. Just the determination of the 64 participants and how they'll be grouped into the regions.

[LukeMcConnell1]

Because I had too much time on my hands, I plotted out the 2024-25 season and then took the top 64 in RPI and top 64 in KPI and showed who would benefit from a 1-64 and who would lose. I kept the conference tournament winners the same. Didn't want to go that in-depth. Did this for both women's and men's.

Check it out here: https://docs.google.com/spreadsheets...it?usp=sharing

[D2Rover]

That's good stuff. They are going to need to figure out better metrics for selection, KPI has some issues. I still think Massey lines up a lot better with the quality I actually see watching games.

I think if they're going to do away with the regionalization, they could go to a three-weekend tournament instead with 16 host sites in the first round, basically formatted like the D1 Volleyball - seed the top 32, top 16 host, teams 32-64 assigned to reduce travel. You'll reduce the total amount of time spent on the road, and should be able to reduce total first round travel by having more sites. Would also get rid of the week-long Elite Eight that is really hard to travel to for working people (and leads to tons of missed class for student-athletes), maybe allowing the Final Four to be tied closer to the D1 tournament somehow. The middle weekend would be a little tricky to figure out, probably have the highest remaining seeds host. I can't imagine neutral sites would be a great draw, although I suppose if you hosted them at some of the places that have hosted recently (St. Joseph, Pittsburgh, Sioux Falls, San Antonio, should probably find one on each coast, rotate those with some others) it would probably work. Not sure if that's something they'll look into or not, but it seems like it would be worth consideration.

[Bballfan]

Because I had too much time on my hands, I plotted out the 2024-25 season and then took the top 64 in RPI and top 64 in KPI and showed who would benefit from a 1-64 and who would lose. I kept the conference tournament winners the same. Didn't want to go that in-depth. Did this for both women's and men's.

Check it out here: https://docs.google.com/spreadsheets...it?usp=sharing

This is fantastic work! Basically need to figure the "at large" after the AQ's, which of course should remain.

[Inkblot]

Judging from recent Championships Committee reports, I have a feeling that NPI will end up being the go-to metric.

[Bballfan]

That's good stuff. They are going to need to figure out better metrics for selection, KPI has some issues. I still think Massey lines up a lot better with the quality I actually see watching games.

I think if they're going to do away with the regionalization, they could go to a three-weekend tournament instead with 16 host sites in the first round, basically formatted like the D1 Volleyball - seed the top 32, top 16 host, teams 32-64 assigned to reduce travel. You'll reduce the total amount of time spent on the road, and should be able to reduce total first round travel by having more sites. Would also get rid of the week-long Elite Eight that is really hard to travel to for working people (and leads to tons of missed class for student-athletes), maybe allowing the Final Four to be tied closer to the D1 tournament somehow. The middle weekend would be a little tricky to figure out, probably have the highest remaining seeds host. I can't imagine neutral sites would be a great draw, although I suppose if you hosted them at some of the places that have hosted recently (St. Joseph, Pittsburgh, Sioux Falls, San Antonio, should probably find one on each coast, rotate those with some others) it would probably work. Not sure if that's something they'll look into or not, but it seems like it would be worth consideration.

A lot of great ideas. And I agree. Two game semi-regions with 16 host schools. Geographically they should be able to pull this off pretty easy. Then move to four two game regional sites (or two super regions with 8 teams each and two advancing like D1), where the top 16 are reseeded (not the top 8 like today). Then have the Final Four on a Friday/Sunday type format. Don't reseed those last 4.

[D2Rover]

Teams outside the 600-mile radius (NCAA pays for flight):

2024-25 (10)
Fayetteville State
Nova Southeastern
Embry-Riddle
Tampa
Adams State
Colorado Mesa
UCCS
Central Washington
Alaska Anchorage
MSU Billings

2023-24 (9)
Fayetteville State
Minnesota State
Drury
Colorado Mines
Adams State
Regis
Colorado Mesa
MSU Billings
Western Washington

2022-23 (13)
Central Missouri
Missouri Southern
Pittsburg State
Southern Nazarene
Nebraska Kearney
Michigan Tech
Drury
Colorado Mines
Regis
Black Hills State
Montana State Billings
Central Washington
Western Washington

2021-22 (10)
St. Cloud State
Drury
Savannah State
Tampa
Florida Southern
Eckerd
Western Washington
Alaska Anchorage
Central Washington
Northwest Nazarene

2020-21 (Goofy Covid)

2019-2020 (14)
Minnesota Duluth
Walsh
Ferris State
Grand Valley State
Ashland
Colorado Mesa
Westminster
Cal Poly Pomona
Cal St San Marcos
Azusa Pacific
UC San Diego
Northwest Nazarene
Alaska Anchorage
Western Washington

2018-19 (17)
Minnesota Duluth
Moorhead State
Northern Michigan
Ashland
Walsh
Grand Valley State
Union
Lane
Eastern New Mexico
Angelo State
Texas A&M Commerce
Lubbock Christian
Tarleton State
Humboldt State
Northwest Nazarene
Alaska Anchorage
Hawaii Pacific



Just eyeballing 17-18 I got 14, 16-17 I had 12.


Using the RPI rankings Luke put together, I tried to figure out how a 3-weekend structure with 16 host sites would have seeded out. It's on my other computer, I'll try to post it this afternoon, but I had 14 teams outside the 600-mile drive radius. That was with the 5-8 seeds seeded like the D1 volleyball does, and no two teams from the same conference sent to the same location - I imagine there are ways to bring it down a little if you adjust those rules.

[D2Rover]

1. Top 16 seeded as 1-16, then given a 1-4 seed for their pod that they host
2. Next 16 seeded in groups of 4 (four 5-seeds, four 6-seeds, etc.), then assigned to pods to minimize travel
3. Teams 33-64 assigned to pods to minimize travel

Max one team per conference per pod
"Minimize travel" prioritizes having as few total flights (600+ miles) as possible


8 of the 16 flights are 5-8 seeds, at least a few of which could be prevented by seeding them as one block of 16 teams
I'm sure a number of flights could be prevented by allowing second round conference matchups
I'd guess we're looking at 9-10 flights for the Sweet Sixteen and at least 3 for a Final Four
Travel costs will be somewhat offset by less time with teams in hotels, since every weekend can be a maximum 3 night trip (maybe more for final 4)

It's not as optimal as I hoped it would look, but I think it would have the upside of a lower maximum number of teams flying in the first round. When you get non-California teams hosting out West, you are less likely to have to fly 6 or 7 teams to play there. Similar (generally less dramatic) situations in the South Central (e.g. Colorado Mesa), South (Nova SE), and Midwest (Drury). And if they are going to de-regionalize, that means they see the upside of having the best 64 teams in the tournament and giving the best teams a path that doesn't meet each other in the second round - so hopefully that's worth at least a few extra bucks.

EDIT: This is based on my solo work, it's possible there are mistakes

[Bballfan]

Max one team per conference per pod

I like that idea, but I don't know if feasible. I know they do that in D1, but could result in more travel. I would just be happy with no more than 2/conference/pod.

Then do 2 super-regionals. Maybe one in the south, one in the north. 4 teams advance from each super regional. I would say east and west, but there just isn't a lot of D2 teams in the west. I think St. Joe Missouri would be a good super regional site, and then look to something maybe in the Carolinas.

One thing about the NCAA, they will find a way to not make it work as it should.

[D2Rover]

I probably agree on the conference thing, I just don't want entire pods to be a redo of the conference tournament. If you go two/conference/pod, you can still easily avoid the first round matchups, which is better.

If you go super-regional, you want it near a major airport, but I like having it somewhere that it's an event, not just the 15th biggest thing happening in a big city that weekend (especially if it's not even a championship). St. Joseph is accessible enough from KC to be a really good option. Pittsburgh (Duquesne) seems to have been a good host for D2 in the past, haven't heard any firsthand accounts of how they did this year. I imagine there are a number of D1 gyms like Duquesne that would work pretty well, just a matter of who wants to do it.

If that round is going to be neutral sites, it needs to be moved around a bit so everyone gets it nearby at least occasionally. If it's two super-sites, they need to move around enough that every school at least occasionally has one close to home. Obviously that depends a bit on finding willing hosts, but there are 2,000-5,000 seat arenas all over the country that could be decent host sites.

[Bballfan]

If you go super-regional, you want it near a major airport, but I like having it somewhere that it's an event, not just the 15th biggest thing happening in a big city that weekend (especially if it's not even a championship). St. Joseph is accessible enough from KC to be a really good option. Pittsburgh (Duquesne) seems to have been a good host for D2 in the past, haven't heard any firsthand accounts of how they did this year. I imagine there are a number of D1 gyms like Duquesne that would work pretty well, just a matter of who wants to do it.

If that round is going to be neutral sites, it needs to be moved around a bit so everyone gets it nearby at least occasionally. If it's two super-sites, they need to move around enough that every school at least occasionally has one close to home. Obviously that depends a bit on finding willing hosts, but there are 2,000-5,000 seat arenas all over the country that could be decent host sites.

Agreed on both counts. Be near a big airport, and move things around. I know when they hosted the finals in Sioux Falls, that was a little far out of the way as Minneapolis was the closest major airport. But St. Joe, Pittsburgh, San Antonio, a lot of places in Florida, Atlanta, Charlotte, Columbus, etc. would all. If you think at where the Elite Eights have been, only a few times in the past several years were they not the most accessible.

I think it would also be great if they did the men in the same locations for the super regionals. Then you could have 4 days of great hoops! Let the women play Thursday/Saturday, and the men Friday/Sunday. Would bolster attendance too.