Midwest Regional - Women's Bracket

[Bballfan]

With 4 weeks to go, I wanted to lay out the Midwest Regional Women's Bracket. Will go by current RPI:

1) Grand Valley State - goes without saying they are the favorite to win the Midwest regional and the national championship again
2) Ferris State - got a big win over Wayne State and Northern Michigan in January. Only stayed with Grand Valley a half. Outside of going to Parkside and Grand Valley, Ferris shouldn't really be challenged.
3) Northwood - Class of the GMAC, but against the GLIAC they are 3 - 4. Two key road games at Malone February 5th and Hillsdale at the end of the month. They should win the rest comfortably.
4) Wayne State (MI) - played Grand Valley tougher than any team the past two years. They finish up with 6 out of 8 home games. Well positioned to get a top 4 seed in the region.
5) Northern Michigan - their best wins are probably against Gannon, Northwood, and Wayne State. With away games at Ferris and at Wayne State, they might be able to rise up.
6) Thomas More - possibly the most overrated team in the Midwest region. They are winning, but barely got by a bad Tiffin team. I will take Malone to get in before Thomas More.
7) Michigan Tech - I really don't see them getting in. Expect road losses at Wayne State, Northern Michigan, and Ferris.
8) Malone - well positioned to make a move. Have Northwood this week. And if they can beat Thomas More and Kentucky Wesleyan on the road, I see them getting in.

GLVC:
USML was in good position in the region for perhaps an at large until they lost to Illinois Springfield. They probably have to run the table now to ensure an at large. The game at Drury at the end of the season looms large.

Games to watch the week of February 2nd:

• Lewis at USML (02/07)
• Grand Valley at Wayne State (02/07)
• Northwood at Malone (02/05)
• Thomas More at Ashland (02/05) - last matchup was double OT and then at Cedarville (02/07) - Cedarville is Thomas More's only home loss this year.

[TSU_Mike59]

I think the tournament winner gets the only GLVC bid this year. UMSL’s best OOC win was either UCM or KWC, both fringe (at best) bubble teams in their regions. They feel like they are leaking oil a bit with the very short bench.

Drury has two absolutely horrendous OOC losses, plus the bad S&T home loss.

Maryville has no *bad* losses but they are behind the 8-ball having lost to UMSL twice.

Lewis has a total of one win against a team better than .500 and a home loss to Lincoln which is just a killer.

Can’t recall a year the league has been this down at the top and bottom.

[Bballfan]

The league is down for sure. A lot depends on Thomas More in the GMAC. They have lived on the edge pretty much every game this year. While they are probably third best in the GMAC, they beat Purdue Northwest by 1 point. Purdue Northwest has 3 wins on the season. Either they are the kind of team that only plays when they need to (not a good trait to have) or they truly are not that good despite only 2 losses in the season. On a neutral floor USML would beat them in my opinion.

[Bballfan]

So InkBlot released his first projection of the tournament....

1) Grand Valley State
2) Ferris State
3) Northern Michigan
4) Northwood
5) Wayne State (MI)
6) Thomas More
7) Malone
8) USML

Obviously Grand Valley is going to be #1, and Ferris I think is pretty set at #2. I think the next 3 could see movement over the rest of the regular season. That leaves the bottom three. I am not convinced the GLVC won't get 2 teams in. USML and then whoever wins the GLVC. So Malone or Thomas More will be the odd team out.

A lot of basketball left to be played, but a few teams still have work to do to be safely in the tournament.

[TSU_Mike59]

I thought it was a typo at first, then I wasn’t sure if you were trolling, but it’s University of Missouri-St. Louis. UMSL.

[Bballfan]

No just a typo. Not trolling. I struggle with that school name. How about the Tridents instead!

Northwood beat Malone. From what I have seen in the GMAC they are clearly the best team and might win one regional game.

Ashland beat Thomas More. Ashland has been without 2 or 3 starters much of this year, but they still had enough to beat the most overrated team in the Midwest region. Thomas More will try to avenge one of their other losses of the season Saturday against Cedarville.

[Bballfan]

Grand Valley goes down. Still comfortablly in the region lead, but i am sure after two one point games against Wayne State that's the one team they don't want to see in tournament. For whatever reason Wayne State matches up well against them!

[Bballfan]

Updated Midwest Region Projection per Inkblot Sports.
1) Grand Valley State
2) Ferris State
3) Northern Michigan
4) Northwood
5) Wayne State (MI)
6) Malone
7) Thomas More
8) UMSL

Not a lot of movement from the previous week. Again Grand Valley is going to be the #1. Ferris, Northern, Northwood, and Wayne State are pretty much locks for the tournament. I could see this order changing a bit over the next few weeks.

Malone, Thomas More, and UMSL are where it gets interesting. I am sure UMSL would like to slide up to the 7 seed, that way if they lose the GLVC tournament they can still get in. I do believe Malone is better than Thomas More, but that will be revealed this week.

Games to watch the week of February 9th:

• UMSL has two road games at Upper Iowa and Quincy. They could lose one or both of these games, especially Quincy which they barely beat at home in overtime earlier in the season.
• Northern at Wayne State (02/12). Wayne State has the best D2 win in two years as they beat Grand Valley. If they beat Northern, could they be the second best team in the region?
• Malone has two road games at Kentucky Wesleyan and Thomas More. KWC and Malone traditionally have tough games. And Malone beat Thomas More at home earlier in the season. I think it is more likely Malone goes 0 - 2 than 2 - 0, but I do think Malone has a better chance of beating Thomas More than KWC.

The worthless "under consideration" first week of rankings will be coming out soon. But a more definitive picture won't be known until week 2 of those rankings.

Stay tuned!

[crazznewt]

Thanks Bballfan!

[Bballfan]

Wayne State smacked around Northern by 20+.

Malone picked up a big win over KWC.

Upset of the night (not really). Thomas More lost at home to Walsh. Good news for the GLVC.

UMSL won. Big one Saturday for them.

[Bballfan]

Wayne State survives with a 1 point win over Michigan Tech.

Thomas More goes down again. They are now 1 - 3 over the last 4 games.

Northwood plays with fire and only wins by 4 against a bad Cedarville team.

UMSL wins at Quincy. I think they are a pretty safe bet for the tournament, win or lose in the conference tournament.

[Bballfan]

Latest from Inkblot...
1) Grand Valley State
2) Ferris State
3) Northwood
4) Wayne State (MI)
5) Northern Michigan
6) Malone
7) UMSL
8) Thomas More

Thomas More continues to leak oil. They have lost 3 out of the last 4. While they don't have real hard games left on the schedule, they have proven they can lose to about anybody in the GMAC.
UMSL is in good position. They win out the regular season they are well positioned to make the tournament.

Games to watch the week of February 16th:

• 02/19
  • Truman at UMSL. Truman is a competent team that could pull off the upset. At UMSL though will be more difficult.
  • Michigan Tech at Northern. Northern should prevail but this is a rivalry game.
• 02/21
  • Northern at Ferris State. Ferris pretty much destroyed Northern at Northern. And Ferris' head coach was out sick for that game. It didn't matter. Ferris wins as it works to secure the #2 seed.
  • Wayne State at Parkside. Parkside is a tricky place to play. Wayne State has been playing pretty well as of late. This is the hardest game left on their schedule. I am sure they desperately want the #3 seed. Win the rest of their games they just might do it.
  • Thomas More at Tiffin. Tiffin won't even make the GMAC tournament, yet Thomas More needed to come from behind in the 4th quarter just to beat them at home a few weeks back. Thomas More definitely needs to win this one, but I have my doubts. Outside of a game against Cedarville, since January 31st they have a win by 2 points and then losses by 3, 3, and 4 points. Not the best time of the year to be playing your worst basketball.

The first "under consideration" regional rankings drop on the 18th. Pretty much worthless as we know those 8 teams will be on it. Throw in 2 more teams on the outside looking in and you will have the 10.

February 25th is when the real rankings will come out for the first time.

[Bballfan]

Well the first week of regional rankings are out. Since this is the "under consideration" week, you don't learn a lot from it....

Ashland
Ferris State
Grand Valley State
Malone
Michigan Tech
Missouri - St. Louis
Northern Michigan
Northwood
Thomas More
Wayne State (Michigan)

If I had to guess, the top 8 are Inkblot's projection above, followed by Michigan Tech and Ashland. Both those teams have big games tomorrow (02/19), and both play top 8 region teams. Ashland at Malone and Tech at Northern. If either lose, I could see Drury and/or Maryville enter the conversation next week.

[Inkblot]

Well the first week of regional rankings are out. Since this is the "under consideration" week, you don't learn a lot from it....

Ashland
Ferris State
Grand Valley State
Malone
Michigan Tech
Missouri - St. Louis
Northern Michigan
Northwood
Thomas More
Wayne State (Michigan)

If I had to guess, the top 8 are Inkblot's projection above, followed by Michigan Tech and Ashland. Both those teams have big games tomorrow (02/19), and both play top 8 region teams. Ashland at Malone and Tech at Northern. If either lose, I could see Drury and/or Maryville enter the conversation next week.

Drury is not particularly close right now, and the upcoming SOS boost from playing UMSL will be offset by their other two remaining games; I don't think it's likely for them to reach the top 10.

[Bballfan]

UMSL and Northern prevailed. Thomas more picked up a much needed win. Top 8 held serve tonight.