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  • #31
    Here are the week 2 results and the ranked teams are the ones from previous week D2 poll. The first section looks at number of teams who get off to either 2-0 or 0-2 start at point value of 11 and up (difficult schedule ) and point value of 10 and below (easy schedule).

    Congrats to Barton, Miles and Colorado Mesa who beat FCS teams this week.

    Good/Bad Start

    Point value 11 and up: 2-0 start (27 teams)
    0-2 start (32 teams)

    Point value 10 and under: 2-0 start (16 teams)
    0-2 start (9 teams)

    D2 vs. FCS

    Week 1: 3-10 Week 2: 3-5 Totals: 6-15


    Early Schedule Difficulty Point Value W/L Records

    17: Wk. 1: 0-2 (Ranked: None); Wk. 2: 1-1; Total: 1-3
    16: Wk.1: 2-1 (1-1); Wk.2: 2-1 (2-0); Total: 4-2 (3-1)
    15: Wk.1: 4-9 (2-0); Wk.2: 7-6 (1-1); Total: 11-15 (3-1)
    14: Wk.1: 9-5 (2-1); Wk.2: 6-8 (1-2); Total: 15-13 (3-3)
    13: Wk.1: 11-8 (4-0); Wk.2: 12-7 (2-2); Total: 23-15 (6-2)
    12:Wk.1:10-11 (1-0);Wk.2: 10-12 (1-0);Total: 20-23 (2-0)
    11: Wk.1: 8-21 (3-0);Wk.2: 14-15 (3-0);Total: 22-36 (6-0)
    10:Wk.1: 16-8 (6-0);Wk.2: 10-14 (3-2); Total: 26-22 (9-2)
    9: Wk.1: 11-6 (2-0); Wk.2: 9-8 (2-0); Total: 20-14 (4-0)
    8: Wk.1: 8-3 (2-0); Wk.2: 7-5 (2-0); Total:14-8 (4-0)
    7: Wk.1: 2-1 (None); Wk.2: 1-2; Total: 3-3
    6: Wk.1: 0-1 (None); Wk.2: 1-0; Total: 1-1
    4: Wk.1: 0-1 (None); Wk.2: 1-0; Toal: 1-1

    Strong (points 17, 16, 15)
    Ranked teams: Ferris, Grand Valley, Delta St., W. Ga.

    Wk. 1: 6-12 (3-1); Wk.2: 10-8 (3-1); Total: 16-20 (6-2)

    Above Average (points 14, 13)
    Ranked: Angelo, Shepherd, Ashland, Wingate, Mankato, Colo, Mines, Pueblo

    Wk.1: 20-13 (6-1); Wk.2: 18-15 (3-4); Total: 38-28 (9-5)

    Average (points 12, 11)
    Ranked: West Fla., Bemidji, Va. Union, Emporia St.

    Wk.1: 18-32 (4-0); Wk.2: 24-27 (4-0); Total: 42-59 (8-0)

    Below Average (points 10, 9)
    Ranked: Indy, NWMo.St., Pitt.St., IUP, L-R, Benedict, Slippery Rock, Davenport

    Wk.1: 27-14 (8-0); Wk.2: 19-22 (5-2); Total: 46-36 (13-2)

    Weak (points 8, 7, 6, 4)
    Ranked: Harding, Ouachita Baptist

    Wk.1: 10-6 (2-0); Wk.2: 10-7 (2-0); Total: 20-13 (4-0)
    Last edited by Argonut; 09-13-2023, 08:32 PM.

    Comment


    • #32
      I think the schedule within only D2 games is more important. We have some really good early season schedules

      GVSU at CSM, home vs CSU-P, nationally ranked Assumption the opening three weeks (then having SVSU in week 4 for the "breather")

      Ashland - IUP in the opener, Ferris St in week 2,

      How many other teams opened with 2, if not 3 straight nationally ranked D2 opponents in the first weeks of the season?

      Comment


      • #33
        Originally posted by chapmaja View Post
        I think the schedule within only D2 games is more important. We have some really good early season schedules

        GVSU at CSM, home vs CSU-P, nationally ranked Assumption the opening three weeks (then having SVSU in week 4 for the "breather")

        Ashland - IUP in the opener, Ferris St in week 2,

        How many other teams opened with 2, if not 3 straight nationally ranked D2 opponents in the first weeks of the season?
        CO Mines played Grand Valley and Angelo then has Pueblo in week 4.

        Comment


        • #34
          Originally posted by Argonut View Post

          The point of this analysis is to look at only the first three games of the season when most D2 teams schedule the widest variety of opponents, from club teams to ranked FSC. Once you determine a scale of difficulty on this early start you can then assess what impact this early schedule (hard, medium or soft) has on the team’s chances for a winning season or the playoffs.

          I am curious to see what the records are after 3 weeks, at playoff selection time and success in the playoffs by the teams who had soft or hard starts to the season.

          Does a hard start injure and shell shock a team into a death spiral and should hard starts only be attempted by top 10 teams? On the other hand, should coaches schedule soft starts to hopefully snowball a team into a playoff spot? The last 5 D2 champions had the scheduling flexibility to schedule whoever they wish in the first three weeks and this flexibility may be an advantage to making the playoffs, a deep playoff run or the title.

          I hope to find some answers throughout the course of this season.
          Thanks for the explanation, Argo. Now I understand the purpose. Should be interesting to see your results come playoff time.

          Comment


          • #35
            Here is top 25 AFCA poll (9-11-23) with teams early schedule point difficulty value for comparison purposes. The average early schedule point difficulty value across all D2 teams in 2023 is 11.38, which means 13 teams are above and 12 below the average in this poll.

            1. Ferris St. 2-0 (16)
            2. Colo. Mines 2-0 (13)
            3. Pitt. St. 2-0 (10)
            4. West Fla. 2-0 (12)
            5. Ouachita 2-0 (8)
            6. Mankato 2-0 (13)
            7. Grand Valley 1-1 (16)
            8. Delta St. 2-0 (15)
            9. Angelo St. 1-1 (14)
            10. Bemidji St. 2-0 (11)
            11. Harding 2-0 (8)
            12. Emporia St. 2-0 (11)
            13. Slippery Rock 2-0 (9)
            14. Shepherd 2-0 (14)
            15. NW Mo. St. 1-1 (10)
            16. Benedict 2-0 (10)
            17. Va. Union 2-0 (11)
            18. Indy 1-0 (10)
            19. Assumption 2-0 (13)
            20. L-R 2-0 (10)
            21. TAM-Kingsville 2-0 (12)
            22. CSU-Pueblo 1-1 (13)
            23. Henderson St. 2-0 (12)
            24. Davenport 2-0 (9)
            25. Western Colo. 2-0 (12)
            Last edited by Argonut; 09-12-2023, 07:50 PM.

            Comment


            • #36
              Here are the numbers for the 2018 playoff field using the first three games of 2018 and the final 2018 records to determine the early schedule difficulty values below. The same pattern found in the 2019-2022 playoffs is also found in 2018- higher numbers win in first round, lowers win second round and the following rounds are fairly even. It’s interesting to see the dead even heat between higher and lower consistently differentiate by the first two rounds.

              2018 Playoff Field Early Schedule Difficulty Values

              15- New Haven
              14- Pueblo, Bowie St.
              13- L-R, West. Ala.
              12- Minn.-Duluth, Valdosta St., Hillsdale
              11- Notre Dame, Kutztown, Wingate, Grand Valley, Ft. Hays, Harding
              10- Indy, NW Mo. St., Minn.-Mankato, Colo. Mines, Fla. Tech., West Ga.
              9- Ferris St., Ouachita Baptist, Azusa Pacific, TAM-Commerce, West Chester, Slippery Rock
              8- LIU Post, Tarleton State

              Round 1: Higher # wins 7; Lower # wins 5
              Round 2: Higher # wins 1; Lower # wins 7
              Regions: Higher # wins 2; Lower # wins 1; same # 1
              Semis: Higher and Lower # both win 1
              Final: Higher # wins title



              2018-2022 PO Field Avg./ Champion v Opponents #

              2018: 10.75; Valdosta (12) v. 14, 13, 11, 9
              2019: 11.28; West Fla. (10) v. 14, 12, 10, 14, 12
              2021: 11.53; Ferris St. (13) v. 8, 9, 14, 13
              2022: 11.28; Ferris St. (9) v. 10, 13, 10, 14


              2018-2022 W/L by Early Schedule Difficulty Value

              All Games in Playoffs Totals
              Higher # wins: 49
              Lower # wins: 49
              Same #: 10

              1st Round
              Higher # wins: 27
              Lower # wins: 16
              Same #: 5

              2nd Round
              Higher # wins: 11
              Lower # wins: 20
              Same #: 1

              Regions
              Higher # wins: 6
              Lower # wins: 7
              Same #: 3

              Semis
              Both Higher and Lower # win 4

              Final
              Higher # wins: 1
              Lower # wins: 2
              Same #: 1

              Comment


              • #37
                This post collects the 2017-2022 playoff field schedule difficulty rankings to illustrate the trend not shown by the playoff field average difficulty value. It appears that the trend since 2017 is for playoff teams to schedule more challenging early schedules. I plan to do the 2016 playoff field as well in order to capture the last silo champion along with the last 5 championship teams who can schedule who they wish in the first three games of the season.

                In the first section I have listed the playoff year and the average difficulty value for that year in parentheses. The list is the difficulty value number and the number of teams at that value number.

                The second section is a comparison of the number of above average (using 11.38 as an average), average and below average teams in that playoff field by year to show the trend from 2017.

                2017 (10.89)

                15-1
                14-1
                13-1
                12-5
                11-10
                10-5
                9-4
                7-1

                2018 (10.75)

                15-1
                14-2
                13-2
                12-3
                11-6
                10-6
                9-6
                8-2

                2019 (11.28)

                15-1
                14-4
                13-1
                12-7
                11-4
                10-6
                9-4
                8-1

                2021 (11.53)

                17-1
                15-1
                14-2
                13-6
                12-5
                11-5
                10-1
                9-4
                8-3

                2022 (11.28)

                15-4
                14-3
                13-3
                12-2
                11-3
                10-4
                9-6
                8-3

                2017-2018-2019-2021-2022

                Above +12: 3-5-6-10-10

                Avg. 11-12: 15-9-11-10-5

                Below -11: 10-14-11-8-13
                Last edited by Argonut; 09-15-2023, 06:40 PM.

                Comment


                • #38
                  Here are the 2017 playoff numbers using the first three games of 2017 and the records and playoff results of 2017. The playoff results are more even here between hard and easy early schedule teams and that’s probably due the accumulation of teams around the average point value of 10.89 for this field.

                  2017 Playoff Field Early Schedule Point Values

                  15- Ashland
                  14- Ferris St.
                  13- Virginia St.
                  12- Westchester, Findlay, Ft. Hays, West Ga., West Ala.
                  11- Assumption, Indy, NW Mo. St., Sioux Falls, CSU-Pueblo, Winona St., West Fla., Wingate, Delta St., Bowie St.
                  10- Shepherd, Ouachita Baptist, Harding, Minn.-Mankato, TAM-Commerce
                  9- Shippensburg, IUP, Calif. (Pa.), Central Wash.
                  7- Midwestern St.

                  2017 Playoff Field W/L

                  1st Round: Higher and Lower # both win 5; 2 games same #

                  2nd Round: Higher and Lower # both win 4

                  Regionals: Lower # wins 3; 1 game same #

                  Semis: Higher # win 1; 1 game same #

                  Final: Lower # win title


                  2017-2022 Playoff Field Avg./ Champion v Opponent.#

                  2017: 10.89 / TAM-Commerce (10) v. 9,10,10,11
                  2018: 10.75 / Valdosta St. (12) v. 14,13,11,9
                  2019: 11.28 / West Fla. (10) v. 14,12,10,14,12
                  2021: 11.53 / Ferris St. (13) v. 8,9,14,13
                  2022: 11.28 / Ferris St. (9) v. 10,13,10,14


                  2017-2022 Playoff Field W/L By Year Totals

                  2017: Higher wins 10; Lower wins 13; Same 4
                  2018: Higher wins 12; Lower wins 14; Same 1
                  2019: Higher wins 10; Lower wins 12; Same 5
                  2021: Higher wins 16; Lower wins 10; Same 1
                  2022: Higher wins 11; Lower wins 13; Same 3


                  2017-2022 Playoff Field W/L Totals / By Round

                  All Games: Higher wins 59; Lower wins 62; Same 14

                  1st Round: Higher wins 32; Lower wins 21; Same 7

                  2nd Round: Higher wins 15; Lower wins 24; Same 1

                  Regions: Higher wins 6; Lower wins 10; Same 4

                  Semis: Higher wins 5; Lower wins 4; Same 1

                  Finals: Higher win 1; Lower win 3; Same 1
                  Last edited by Argonut; 09-16-2023, 08:18 AM.

                  Comment


                  • #39
                    Here are the week three W/L results at the respective early schedule difficulty point values as I have done before with a few tweaks to the arrangement to make it easier to view. There are 9 teams that have not played a third game and five of those are 2-0. I plan to continue this tracking throughout the season to see what it shows.

                    The ranked teams and records for each week are from the previous week D2 poll and the ranked records don’t match up exactly from prior weeks and the totals due to the shuffling of teams as they come in and out of each week’s poll.

                    It’s clearly apparent by week three that ranked teams with early schedule difficulty values of 11 and below do very well in early season and those with more difficult early schedules pick up a lot more early losses comparatively. (3 vs 14) This easier early schedule also benefits teams in the playoffs as easy schedule teams go deeper and win more titles as shown in my previous posts on the playoffs.

                    Delta State was the only victor vs FCS this week against in state rival Miss. Valley and the FCS games dwindle away now that conference play begins.

                    D2 vs FCS

                    Wk. 1: 3-10 Wk.2: 3-5 Wk. 3: 1-3 Totals: 7-18


                    Good / Bad Start (No. of teams at each point level)

                    3-0 start / 0-3 start

                    +12: 8 / 6
                    11-12: 10 / 13
                    -11: 11 / 7


                    Early Schedule Difficulty Point Level W/L Records

                    Pt. / Wk. 1 (Ranked)/Wk.2 (R)/ Wk.3 (R)/ Total (R)

                    17- 0-2 (None) / 1-1 (N) / 2-0 (N) / 3-3 (N)

                    16: 2-1 (1-1) / 2-1 (2-0) / 1-2 (1-1) / 5-4 (4-2)

                    15: 4-9 (2-0) / 7-6 (1-1) / 7-6 (1-0) / 18-21 (4-1)

                    14: 9-5 (2-1) / 6-8 (1-2) / 6-8 (1-1) / 21-21 (4-4)

                    13: 11-8 (4-0) / 12-7 (2-2) / 8-12 (2-3) / 31-27 (8-5)

                    12: 10-11 (1-0) / 10-12 (1-0) / 9-12 (0-2) / 29-35 (2-2)

                    11: 8-21 (3-0) / 14-15 (3-0) / 16-13 (3-0) / 38-49 (9-0)

                    10: 16-8 (6-0) / 10-14 (3-2) / 13-11 (5-1) / 39-33 (14-3)

                    9: 11-6 (2-0) / 9-8 (2-0) / 8-8 (2-0) / 28-22 (5-0)

                    8: 8-3 (2-0) / 7-5 (2-0) / 8-4 (2-0) / 23-12 (6-0)

                    7: 2-1 (None) / 1-2 (N) / 1-2 (N) / 4-5 (N)

                    6: 0-1 (None) / 1-0 (N) / 1-0 (N) / 2-1 (N)

                    4: 0-1 (None) / 1-0 (N) / 1-0 (N) / 2-1 (N)


                    Strong (Pts. 17, 16, 15)
                    Ranked: Ferris, Grand Valley, Delta St.

                    Wk.1: 6-12 (3-1) Wk.2: 10-8 (3-1) Wk.3 10-8 (2-1)
                    Totals: 26-28 (8-3)

                    Above Avg. (Pts. 14, 13)
                    Ranked: Angelo St., Shepherd, Wingate, Assumption, Minn.-Mankato, Colo. Mines, CSU-Pueblo

                    Wk.1: 20-13 (6-1) Wk.2: 18-15 (3-4) Wk.3: 14-20 (3-4)
                    Totals: 52-48 (12-9)

                    Average (Pts. 12, 11)
                    Ranked: West Fla., Saginaw Valley, Bemidji St., Va. Union, Emporia St.

                    Wk.1: 18-32 (4-0) Wk.2: 24-27 (4-0) Wk.3: 19-25 (3-2)
                    Totals: 61-84 (11-2)

                    Below Avg. (Pts. 10, 9)
                    Ranked: Indy, NWMo.St., Pitt.St., IUP, L-R, Benedict, Davenport, Slippery Rock

                    Wk.1: 27-14 (8-0) Wk.2: 19-22 (5-2) Wk.3: 21-19 (6-1)
                    Totals: 67-55 (19-3)

                    Weak (Pts. (8, 7, 6, 4)
                    Ranked: Harding, Ouachita Baptist

                    Wk.1: 10-6 (2-0) Wk.2: 10-7 (2-0) 11-6 (2-0)
                    Totals: 31-19 (6-0)
                    Last edited by Argonut; 09-19-2023, 07:36 AM.

                    Comment


                    • #40
                      Here is a list of the last 5 champions and their opening schedule of 3 games for comparison. I have listed the opponents records that particular season as well. Most of the champions had one challenging game of the first three and all were pretty much blasting their opponents from the start of the season.

                      2017 Texas A & M-Commerce (10)

                      at North Alabama (5-5) win 8-7
                      vs William Jewell (2-9) win 59-6
                      vs E. New Mexico (8-2) win 51-22

                      2018 Valdosta State (12)

                      vs. Albany State (7-4) win 45-14
                      Neutral Ft. Valley (2-8) win 55-6
                      at W. Alabama (8-4) win 58-14

                      2019 West Florida (10)

                      at Carson-Newman (9-3) lose 13-20
                      at Shorter (1-10) win 42-14
                      vs. Va.-Lynchburg (2-7) win 69-0

                      2021 Ferris State (13)

                      vs. Findlay (7-4) win 54-14
                      at Ashland (10-2) win 45-19
                      vs. Saginaw Valley (8-3) win 47-45 (OT)

                      2022 Ferris State (9)

                      vs. Central Wash. (6-4) win 36-20
                      at Lenior-Rhyne (8-3) win 27-5
                      vs. Waldorf (7-4) win 69-3

                      Comment


                      • #41
                        If you take the two early schedule elements of the last 5 champions (Difficulty value 13 or less and pounding at least two of first three opponents) and apply it to the 2023 field you have the following list of potential 2023 champions. The list is organized by difficulty value, record and alphabet. I split a few hairs including some and left out some who themselves were obliterated by a D2 foe in a bad loss. The one loss teams included had good losses like the 2019 Champion Argos whose loss was in opener on road to 2019 playoff team Carson-Newman (13-20).

                        It will be interesting to see if the 2023 champion comes from this list or is a team that breaks the current pattern of the last 5 years. Those likely suspects start with the hard schedule teams Ferris, Grand Valley and Delta State. The list has the difficulty value of each team followed by their 2023 records and scores.

                        Minn.-Mankato (13) 3-0 (54-26, 31-14, 52-26)
                        TAM-Kingsville (12) 3-0 (30-10, 20-17, 30-9)
                        Bemidji St. (11) 3-0 (49-13, 34-14, 36-10)
                        E. Stroudsburg (11) 3-0 (62-9, 13-12, 55-21)
                        Emporia St. (11) 3-0 (56-10, 33-13, 38-0)
                        Benedict (10) 3-0 (52-0, 34-0, 54-7)
                        Lenior-Rhyne (10) 3-0 (45-7, 24-10, 62-0)
                        Pitt.St. (10) 3-0 (34-7, 40-14, 38-37)
                        Slippery Rock (9) 3-0 (28-17, 49-24, 42-21)
                        Tiffin (9) 3-0 (79-14, 42-7, 34-27)
                        Augustana (8) 3-0 (38-7, 27-3, 24-16)
                        Harding (8) 3-0 (53-20, 49-10, 59-19)
                        Ouachita Baptist (8) 3-0 (38-14, 66-0, 52-24)
                        Valdosta St. (8) 3-0 (63-10, 21-16, 49-25)
                        West Fla. (12) 2-1 (35-3, 35-3, 10-31)
                        Minn.-Duluth (11) 2-0 (47-10, 41-21)
                        Indy (10) 2-0 (39-20, 28-7)
                        Minn.-Moorhead (10) 2-1 (23-31, 56-14, 38-17)
                        West Texas AM (10) 2-1 (6-28, 28-7, 23-0)
                        UT-Permian (9) 2-1 (96-0, 27-35, 86-7)
                        Quincy (4) 2-1 (34-35, 89-0, 49-0)

                        Comment


                        • #42
                          Really good work. I like people like you who care about D2 football beyond your own team.

                          Comment


                          • #43
                            Here is the 9-18-23 D2 poll with early schedule difficulty values for each team. 13 teams have a value above the D2 average of 11.38 and 12 are below. Of the 6 teams with losses all but one have an above average difficulty value.

                            1. Ferris State 2-1 (16)
                            2. Colo. Mines 3-0 (13)
                            3. Pittsburg St. 3-0 (10)
                            4. Grand Valley 2-1 (16)
                            5. Minn-Mankato 3-0 (13)
                            6. Delta State 3-0 (15)
                            7. Bemidji State 3-0 (11)
                            8. West Florida 2-1 (12)
                            9. Ouachita Baptist. 3-0 (8)
                            10. Emporia State 3-0 (11)
                            11. Harding 3-0 (8)
                            12. Slippery Rock 3-0 (9)
                            13. Benedict 3-0 (10)
                            14. Shepherd 3-0 (14)
                            15. Lenior-Rhyne 3-0 (10)
                            16. Va. Union 3-0 (11)
                            17. Indy 2-0 (11)
                            18. Davenport 2-0 (9)
                            19. IUP 2-1 (10)
                            20. Western Colo. 3-0 (12)
                            21. Angelo State 1-2 (14)
                            22. TAM-Kingsville 3-0 (12)
                            23. Henderson State 3-0 (12)
                            24. Truman State 3-0 (13)
                            25. Central Missouri 2-1 (12)

                            Comment


                            • #44
                              Here are the 2016 playoff results using first three games of 2016 and the 2016 records and playoff results. I have also added these results to those of 2017-2022.

                              The 2016 playoff field was like 2017 in that most of the field was bunched up around the average difficulty value of 11 and 12 and this surprisingly led to the second highest playoff field difficulty average from 2016-2022.

                              The 2016 playoff field results were different from 2018-2022 in that the easy schedule teams won more in first two rounds and less in next two, although the title winner was again an easy schedule team.

                              The average early schedule difficulty score of the champions from 2016-2022 was an even 11, which is below the 2023 average of 11.38 for all teams in D2. In 2016 the average difficulty schedule team, NWMo. St. (12), beat the much higher difficulty schedule team, North Alabama (18), who went on the road in their opener to play a top 10 FCS team. That might be good for recognition and a paycheck, but it may come back to bite you later in the season.

                              2016 Playoff Field Early Schedule Difficulty Values

                              18- North Alabama
                              14- Newberry
                              13- Colo. Mesa, Tuskegee
                              12- Valdosta St., UNC-Pembroke, North Greenville, Azuza Pacific, Midwestern St., Colo. Mines, Central Mo., NW Mo. St., Winston-Salem, LIU Post
                              11- Fla. Tech., Ferris St., SW Baptist, Sioux Falls, Minn.-Duluth, IUP
                              10- Assumption, Emporia St., TAM-Commerce
                              9- Fairmont St., Calif. (Pa.), Shepherd, Harding
                              8- Grand Valley

                              2016 Playoff Field W/L by Round

                              1st Round: Higher wins 3 / Lower wins 7 / Same 2
                              2nd Round: Higher wins 2 / Lower wins 6
                              Regionals: Higher wins 3 / Lower wins 0 / Same 1
                              Semis: Higher wins 2
                              Title: Lower wins


                              2016-2022 Playoff Field Avg. / Champion v. Opponent #

                              2016: 11.35 / NWMo.St. (12) vs. 10, 9, 11, 18
                              2017: 10.89 / Commerce (10) vs. 9, 10, 10, 11
                              2018: 10.75 / Valdosta St. (12) vs. 14, 13, 11, 9
                              2019: 11.28 / West Fla. (10) vs. 14, 12, 10, 14, 12
                              2021: 11.53 / Ferris St. (13) vs. 8, 9, 14, 13
                              2022: 11.28 / Ferris St. (9) vs. 10, 13, 10, 14


                              2016-2022 Playoff Field W/L By Year Totals

                              2016: Higher wins 10 / Lower wins 14 / Same 3
                              2017: Higher wins 10 / Lower wins 13 / Same 4
                              2018: Higher wins 12 / Lower wins 14 / Same 1
                              2019: Higher wins 10 / Lower wins 12 / Same 5
                              2021: Higher wins 16 / Lower wins 10 / Same 1
                              2022: Higher wins 11 / Lower wins 13 / Same 3


                              2016-2022 Playoff Field W/L by Round Totals

                              All Games: Higher wins 69 / Lower wins 76 / Same 17
                              1st Round: Higher wins 35 / Lower wins 28 / Same 9
                              2nd Round: Higher wins 17 / Lower wins 30 / Same 1
                              Regionals: Higher wins 9 / Lower wins 10 / Same 5
                              Semis: Higher wins 7 / Lower wins 4 / Same 1
                              Final: Higher wins 1 / Lower wins 4 / Same 1

                              Comment


                              • #45
                                Here are the week 4 results using the previous week. D2 poll for the ranked teams listings and records for week 4. It’s clearly apparent that easier early schedules help more teams get off to 4-0 starts and ranked teams have much better W/L records at lower difficulty values.

                                D2 vs. FCS

                                Week 1: 3-10
                                Week 2: 3-5
                                Week 3: 1-3
                                Week 4: 0-1
                                Totals: 7-19

                                Good (4-0) / Bad (0-4) Start (No. teams at each level)

                                +12: 5 / 5
                                11-12: 6 / 9
                                -11: 10 / 5

                                Early Schedule Difficulty W/L at Each Point Value

                                17-
                                Wk. 1: 0-2 (No Ranked Teams)
                                Wk. 2: 1-1 (N)
                                Wk. 3: 2-0 (N)
                                Wk. 4: 1-1 (N)
                                Totals: 4-4

                                16-
                                Wk. 1: 2-1 (Ranked 1-1)
                                Wk. 2: 2-1 (2-0)
                                Wk. 3: 1-2 (1-1)
                                Wk. 4: 0-1 (0–0)
                                Totals: 5-5 (4-2)

                                15-
                                Wk. 1: 4-9 (2-0)
                                Wk. 2: 7-6 (1-1)
                                Wk. 3: 7-6 (1-0)
                                Wk. 4: 5-8 (1-0)
                                Totals: 23-29 (5-1)

                                14-
                                Wk. 1: 9-5 (2-1)
                                Wk. 2: 6-8 (1-2)
                                Wk. 3: 6-8 (1-1)
                                Wk. 4: 7-7 (1-1)
                                Totals: 28-28 (5-5)

                                13-
                                Wk. 1: 11-8 (4-0)
                                Wk. 2: 12-7 (2-2)
                                Wk. 3: 8-12 (2-3)
                                Wk. 4: 11-7 (3-0)
                                Totals: 42-34 (11-5)

                                12-
                                Wk. 1: 10-11 (1-0)
                                Wk. 2: 10-12 (1-0)
                                Wk. 3: 9-12 (0-2)
                                Wk. 4: 11-9 (3-1)
                                Totals: 40-44 (5-3)

                                11-
                                Wk. 1: 8-21 (3-0)
                                Wk. 2: 14-15 (3-0)
                                Wk. 3: 16-13 (3-0)
                                Wk. 4: 13-15 (2-1)
                                Totals: 51-64 (11-1)

                                10-
                                Wk. 1: 16-8 (6-0)
                                Wk. 2: 10-14 (3-2)
                                Wk. 3: 13-11 (5-1)
                                Wk. 4: 12-13 (5-0)
                                Totals: 51-46 (19-3)

                                9-
                                Wk. 1: 11-6 (2-0)
                                Wk. 2: 9-8 (2-0)
                                Wk. 3: 8-8 (2-0)
                                Wk. 4: 10-7 (2-0)
                                Totals: 38-29 (8-0)

                                8-
                                Wk. 1: 8-3 (2-0)
                                Wk. 2: 7-5 (2-0)
                                Wk. 3: 8-4 (2-0)
                                Wk.4 : 7-5 (2-0)
                                Totals: 30-17 (8-0)

                                7-
                                Wk. 1: 2-1 (No Ranked)
                                Wk. 2: 1-2 (N)
                                Wk. 3: 1-2 (N)
                                Wk. 4: 0-3 (N)
                                Totals: 4-8 (N)

                                6-
                                Wk. 1: 0-1 (N)
                                Wk. 2: 1-0 (N)
                                Wk. 3: 1-0 (N)
                                Wk. 4: 0-1 (N)
                                Totals: 2-2 (N)

                                4-
                                Wk. 1: 0-1 (N)
                                Wk. 2: 1-0 (N)
                                Wk. 3: 1-0 (N)
                                Wk. 4: 1-0 (N)
                                Totals: 3-1 (N)


                                Early Schedule Difficulty W/L by Group

                                Strong (Pts. 17, 16, 15)
                                Ranked: Ferris St., Grand Valley, Delta St.
                                Wk. 1: 6-12 (Ranked 3-1)
                                Wk. 2: 10-8 (3-1)
                                Wk. 3: 10-8 (2-1)
                                Wk. 4: 6-10 (1-0)
                                Totals: 32-38 (9-3)

                                Above Avg. (Pts. 14, 13)
                                Ranked: Colo. Mines, Truman St., Shepherd, Angelo St., Minn.-Mankato
                                Wk. 1: 20-13 (6-1)
                                Wk. 2: -8-15 (3-4)
                                Wk. 3: 14-20 (3-4)
                                Wk. 4: 18-14 (4-1)
                                Totals: 70-62 (16-10)

                                Average (Pts. 12, 11)
                                Ranked: West Fla., Emporia St., Va. Union, Bemidji St., Western Colo., Central Mo., Henderson St., TAM-Kingsville
                                Wk. 1: 18-32 (4-0)
                                Wk. 2: 24-27 (4-0)
                                Wk. 3: 19-25 (3-2)
                                Wk. 4: 24-14 (5-2)
                                Totals: 85-98 (16-4)

                                Below Avg. (Pts. 10, 9)
                                Ranked: Indy, IUP, L-R, Pitt.St., Slippery Rock, Benedict, Davenport
                                Wk: 1: 27-14 (8-0)
                                Wk. 2: 19-22 (5-2)
                                Wk. 3: 21-19 (6-1)
                                Wk. 4: 22-20 (7-0)
                                Totals: 89-75 (26-3)

                                Weak (Pts. 8, 7, 6, 4)
                                Ranked: Harding, Ouachita Baptist
                                Wk. 1: 10-6 (2-0)
                                Wk. 2: 10-7 (2-0)
                                Wk. 3: 11-6 (2-0)
                                Wk. 4: 8-9 (2-0)
                                Totals: 39-28 (8-0)

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