Early Season Schedule Difficulty

[Argonut]

10-30-23 D2 poll with early schedule difficulty value and hashtag for teams that match early schedule elements of last 6 D2 champions. All but three (Ferris, Va. Union, Mo. Western) of this top 25 are in the top 7 of this week’s regional rankings.

1. Colo. Mines, 9-0 (13)
2. Grand Valley, 7-1 (16)
3. Pitt. St., 9-0 (10) #
4. Ferris St., 6-2 (16)
5. Harding, 9-0 (8) #
6. Slippery Rock, 9-0 (9) #
7. Benedict, 9-0 (10) #
8. Central Mo., 8-1 (12)
9. Bemidji St., 7-1 (11) #
10. Minn.-Mankato, 8-1 (13) #
11. Indianapolis, 8-0 (10) #
12. Delta St., 7-1 (15)
13. Davenport, 8-0 (9)
14. Ouachita Baptist, 8-1 (8) #
15. Lenoir-Rhyne, 8-1 (10) #
16. Augustana, 8-1 (8) #
17. Western Colo., 8-1 (12)
18. UT-Permian, 8-1 (9) #
19. Valdosta St., 8-1 (8) #
20. Va. Union, 8-1 (11)
21. West Fla., 6-3 (12) #
22. Tiffin, 9-0 (9) #
23. Central Wash., 7-2 (14)
24. Mo. Western, 7-2 (9)
25. Mars Hill, 7-1 (10)

[Argonut]

Week 9 results and totals in same categories as before.

D2 v FCS

Wk. 1: 3-10
Wk. 2: 3-5
Wk. 3: 1-3
Wk. 4: 0-1
Wk. 5: 0-2
Wk. 6: 0-0
Wk. 7: 0-0
Wk. 8: 0-0
Wk. 9: 0-0
Total: 7-21

Unbeaten / Winless point value distribution

+12: 1 / 1
11-12: 0 / 7
-11: 7 / 1

W/L at each Point Value

17 (Tusculum, Colo. Mesa)

Wk. 1: 0-2 (No ranked teams)
Wk. 2: 1-1
Wk. 3: 2-0
Wk. 4: 1-1
Wk. 5: 0-2
Wk. 6: 1-1
Wk. 7: 2-0
Wk. 8: 1-1
Wk. 9: 1-1
Total: 9-9

16 (Ferris St., Grand Valley, Central St.)

Wk. 1: 2-1 (1-1)
Wk. 2: 2-1 (2-0)
Wk. 3: 1-2 (1-1)
Wk. 4: 0-1 (0-0)
Wk. 5: 2-1 (2-0)
Wk. 6: 2-1 (2-0)
Wk. 7: 2-1 (1-1)
Wk. 8: 3-0 (2-0)
Wk. 9: 3-0 (2-0)
Total: 17-8 (13-3)

15 (13 teams)

Wk. 1: 4-9 (2-0)
Wk. 2: 7-6 (1-1)
Wk. 3: 7-6 (1-0)
Wk. 4: 5-8 (1-0)
Wk. 5: 7-5 (1-0)
Wk. 6: 3-10 (1-0)
Wk. 7: 6-6 (1-0)
Wk. 8: 5-7 (0-1)
Wk. 9: 6-6 (0-0)
Total: 50-63 (8-2)

14 (14 teams)

Wk. 1: 9-5 (2-1)
Wk. 2: 6-8 (1-2)
Wk. 3: 6-8 (1-1)
Wk. 4: 7-7 (1-1)
Wk. 5: 7-7 (2-0)
Wk. 6: 8-5 (1-0)
Wk. 7: 7-7 (2-0)
Wk. 8: 8-6 (1-1)
Wk. 9: 7-7 (1-1)
Total: 65-60 (12-7)

13 (20 teams)

Wk. 1:11-8 (4-0)
Wk. 2: 12-7 (2-2)
Wk. 3: 8-12 (2-3)
Wk. 4: 11-7 (3-0)
Wk. 5: 11-8 (3-0)
Wk. 6: 13-7 (3-0)
Wk. 7: 12-7 (3-1)
Wk. 8: 10-10 (2-2)
Wk. 9: 10-10 (2-1)
Total: 98-76 (24-9)

12 (22 teams)

Wk. 1: 10-11 (1-0)
Wk. 2: 10-12 (1-0)
Wk. 3: 9-12 (0-2)
Wk. 4: 11-9 (3-1)
Wk. 5: 11-10 (3-1)
Wk. 6: 13-7 (3-0)
Wk. 7: 8-14 (2-1)
Wk. 8: 11-11 (3-0)
Wk. 9: 9-13 (1-2)
Total: 92-99 (17-7)

11 (29 teams)

Wk. 1: 8-21 (3-0)
Wk. 2: 14-15 (3-0)
Wk. 3: 16-13 (3-0)
Wk. 4: 13-15 (2-1)
Wk. 5: 10-18 (2-2)
Wk. 6: 13-14 (1-2)
Wk. 7: 15-14 (3-0)
Wk. 8: 14-14 (2-1)
Wk. 9: 16-13 (2-0)
Total: 119-137 (21-6)

10 (25 teams)

Wk. 1: 16-8 (6-0)
Wk. 2: 10-14 (3-2)
Wk. 3: 13-11 (5-1)
Wk. 4: 12-13 (5-0)
Wk. 5: 14-10 (4-1)
Wk. 6: 12-12 (4-0)
Wk. 7: 14-9 (4-0)
Wk. 8: 10-15 (4-0)
Wk. 9: 12-12 (3-1)
Total: 113-104 (38-5)

9 (17 teams)

Wk. 1: 11-6 (2-0)
Wk. 2: 9-8 (2-0)
Wk. 3: 8-8 (2-0)
Wk. 4: 10-7 (2-0)
Wk. 5: 6-11 (2-0)
Wk. 6: 11-6 (3-0)
Wk. 7: 7-9 (2-1)
Wk. 8: 8-7 (3-0)
Wk. 9: 11-6 (4-0)
Total: 81-68 (58-1)

8 (12 teams)

Wk. 1: 8-3 (2-0)
Wk. 2: 7-5 (2-0)
Wk. 3: 8-4 (2-0)
Wk. 4: 7-5 (2-0)
Wk. 5: 10-3 (2-0)
Wk. 6: 3-9 (2-0)
Wk. 7: 6-6 (2-1)
Wk. 8: 6-6 (3-0)
Wk. 9: 5-7 (3-1)
Total: 60-48 (20-2)

7 (Clarion, E. New Mexico, Ft. Lewis)

Wk. 1: 2-1 (No ranked)
Wk. 2: 1-2
Wk. 3: 1-2
Wk. 4: 0-3
Wk. 5: 0-3
Wk. 6: 0-3
Wk. 7: 0-3
Wk. 8: 1-2
Wk. 9: 1-2
Total: 6-21

6 (Upper Iowa)

Wk. 1: 0-1 (No ranked)
Wk. 2: 1-0
Wk. 3: 1-0
Wk. 4: 0-1
Wk. 5: 0-1
Wk. 6: 0-1
Wk. 7: 0-1
Wk. 8: 1-0
Wk. 9: 0-1
Total: 3-6

4 (Quincy)

Wk. 1: 0-1 (No ranked)
Wk. 2: 1-0
Wk. 3: 1-0
Wk. 4: 1-0
Wk. 5: 1-0
Wk. 6: 0-1
Wk. 7: 1-0
Wk. 8: 0-1
Wk. 9: 0-1
Total: 5-4

W/L by point value group

Strong (Points 17, 16, 15) (17 teams)
Ranked: Ferris St., Grand Valley, Delta St.

Wk. 1: 8-12 (3-1)
Wk. 2: 10-8 (3-1)
Wk. 3: 10-8 (2-1)
Wk. 4: 6-10 (1-0)
Wk. 5: 9-8 (3-0)
Wk. 6: 6-12 (3-0)
Wk. 7: 10-7 (2-1)
Wk. 8: 9-8 (2-1)
Wk. 9: 10-7 (2-0)
Total: 76-80 (21-5)

Above Avg. (14, 13) (34 teams)
Ranked: Shepherd, Central Wash., Colo. Mines, Truman St., Minn.-Mankato

Wk. 1: 20-13 (6-1)
Wk. 2: 8-15 (3-4)
Wk. 3: 14-20 (3-4)
Wk. 4: 18-13 (4-1)
Wk. 5: 18-15 (5-0)
Wk. 6: 21-12 (4-0)
Wk. 7: 19-14 (5-1)
Wk. 8: 18-16 (3-3)
Wk. 9: 17-17 (3-2)
Total: 153-136 (36-16)

Average (12, 11) (51 teams)
Ranked: West Fla., Central Mo., Western Colo., Bemidji St., Va. Union

Wk. 1: 18-32 (4-0)
Wk. 2: 24-27 (4-0)
Wk. 3: 19-25 (3-2)
Wk. 4: 24-14 (5-2)
Wk. 5: 21-28 (5-3)
Wk. 6: 26-21 (4-2)
Wk. 7: 23-28 (5-1)
Wk. 8: 25-25 (5-1)
Wk. 9: 25-26 (3-2)
Total: 205-226 (38-13)

Below Avg. (10, 9) (42 teams)
Ranked: Indy, Pitt. St., L-R, Benedict, Tiffin, Davenport, Slippery Rock, UT-Permian

Wk. 1: 27-14 (8-0)
Wk. 2: 19-22 (5-2)
Wk. 3: 21-19 (6-1)
Wk. 4: 22-20 (7-0)
Wk. 5: 20-21 (6-1)
Wk. 6: 23-18 (7-0)
Wk. 7: 21-18 (6-1)
Wk. 8: 18-22 (7-0)
Wk. 9: 23-18 (7-1)
Total: 194-172 (59-6)

Weak (8, 7, 6, 4) (17 teams)
Ranked: Augustana, Harding, Ouachita Baptist, Valdosta St.

Wk. 1: 10-6 (2-0)
Wk. 2: 10-7 (2-0)
Wk. 3: 11-6 (2-0)
Wk. 4: 8-9 (2-0)
Wk. 5: 11-7 (2-0)
Wk. 6: 3-14 (2-1)
Wk. 7: 7-10 (2-1)
Wk. 8: 8-9 (3-0)
Wk. 9: 6-11 (3-1)
Total: 74-79 (20-3)

[Argonut]

Week 10 results as before using prior week D2 poll for ranked teams.

D2 v. FCS

Wk. 1: 3-10
Wk. 2: 3-5
Wk. 3: 1-3
Wk. 4: 0-1
Wk. 5: 0-2
Wk. 6: 0-0
Wk. 7: 0-0
Wk. 8: 0-0
Wk. 9: 0-0
Wk. 10: 0-0
Total 7-21

Unbeaten / Winless (Early Schedule Difficulty Distribution)

+12: 1 / 0
11-12: 0 / 7
-11: 4 / 1

Weekly W/L at each Early Schedule Difficulty Value

17 (Tusculum, Colo. Mesa)

Wk. 1: 0-2 (No ranked Teams)
Wk. 2: 1-1
Wk. 3: 2-0
Wk. 4: 1-1
Wk. 5: 0-2
Wk. 6: 1-1
Wk. 7: 2-0
Wk. 8: 1-1
Wk. 9: 1-1
Wk. 10: 2-0
Total 11-9

16 (Ferris St., Grand Valley, Central St.)

Wk. 1: 2-1 (Ranked 1-1)
Wk. 2: 2-1 (2-0)
Wk. 3: 1-2 (1-1)
Wk. 4: 0-1 (0-0)
Wk. 5: 2-1 (2-0)
Wk. 6: 2-1 (2-0)
Wk. 7: 2-1 (1-1)
Wk. 8: 3-0 (2-0)
Wk. 9: 3-0 (2-0)
Wk. 10: 3-0 (2-0)
Total: 20-8 (15-3)

15 (13 teams)

Wk. 1: 4-9 (2-0)
Wk. 2: 7-6 (1-1)
Wk. 3: 7-6 (1-0)
Wk. 4: 5-8 (1-0)
Wk. 5: 7-5 (1-0)
Wk. 6: 3-10 (1-0)
Wk. 7: 6-6 (1-0)
Wk. 8: 5-7 (0-1)
Wk. 9: 6-6 (0-0)
Wk. 10: 6-6 (1-0)
Total: 56-69 (9-2)

14 (14 Teams)

Wk. 1: 9-5 (2-1)
Wk. 2: 6-8 (1-2)
Wk. 3: 6-8 (1-1)
Wk. 4: 7-7 (1-1)
Wk. 5: 7-7 (2-0)
Wk. 6: 8-5 (1-0)
Wk. 7: 7-7 (2-0)
Wk. 8: 8-6 (1-1)
Wk. 9: 7-7 (1-1)
Wk. 10: 8-5 (0-0)
Total: 73-65 (12-7)

13 (20 Teams)

Wk. 1: 11-8 (4-0)
Wk. 2: 12-7 (2-2)
Wk. 3: 8-12 (2-3)
Wk. 4: 11-7 (3-0)
Wk. 5: 11-8 (3-0)
Wk. 6: 13-7 (3-0)
Wk. 7: 12-7 (3-1)
Wk. 8: 10-10 (2-2)
Wk. 9: 10-10 (2-1)
Wk. 10: 9-10 (2-0)
Total: 107-86 (26-9)

12 (22 Teams)

Wk. 1: 10-11 (1-0)
Wk. 2: 10-12 (1-0)
Wk. 3: 9-12 (0-2)
Wk. 4: 11-9 (3-1)
Wk. 5: 11-10 (3-1)
Wk. 6: 13-7 (3-0)
Wk. 7: 8-14 (2-1)
Wk. 8: 11-11 (3-0)
Wk. 9: 9-13 (1-2)
Wk. 10: 12-10 (3-0)
Total: 104-109 (20-7)

11 (29 Teams)

Wk. 1: 8-21 (3-0)
Wk. 2: 14-15 (3-0)
Wk. 3: 16-13 (3-0)
Wk. 4: 13-15 (2-1)
Wk. 5: 10-18 (2-2)
Wk. 6: 13-14 (1-2)
Wk. 7: 15-14 (3-0)
Wk. 8: 14-14 (2-1)
Wk. 9: 16-13 (2-0)
Wk. 10: 13-15 (2-0)
Total: 132-152 (23-6)

10 (25 Teams)

Wk. 1: 16-8 (6-0)
Wk. 2: 10-14 (3-2)
Wk. 3: 13-11 (5-1)
Wk. 4: 12-13 (5-0)
Wk. 5: 14-10 (4-1)
Wk. 6: 12-12 (4-0)
Wk. 7: 14-9 (4-0)
Wk. 8: 10-15 (4-0)
Wk. 9: 12-12 (3-1)
Wk. 10: 8-17 (2-3)
Total: 121-121 (40-8)

9 (17 Teams)

Wk. 1: 11-6 (2-0)
Wk. 2: 9-8 (2-0)
Wk. 3: 8-8 (2-0)
Wk. 4: 10-7 (2-0)
Wk. 5: 6-11 (2-0)
Wk. 6: 11-6 (3-0)
Wk. 7: 7-9 (2-1)
Wk. 8: 8-7 (3-0)
Wk. 9: 11-6 (4-0)
Wk. 10: 9-8 (4-1)
Total: 90-76 (62-2)

8 (12 Teams)

Wk. 1: 8-3 (2-0)
Wk. 2: 7-5 (2-0)
Wk. 3: 8-4 (2-0)
Wk. 4: 7-5 (2-0)
Wk. 5: 10-3 (2-0)
Wk. 6: 3-9 (2-0)
Wk. 7: 6-6 (2-1)
Wk. 8: 6-6 (3-0)
Wk. 9: 5-7 (3-1)
Wk. 10: 9-3 (4-0)
Total: 69-51 (24-2)

7 (Clarion, Ft. Lewis, E. New Mexico)

Wk. 1: 2-1 (N)
Wk. 2: 1-2
Wk. 3: 1-2
Wk. 4: 0-3
Wk. 5: 0-3
Wk. 6: 0-3
Wk. 7: 0-3
Wk. 8: 1-2
Wk. 9: 1-2
Wk. 10: 1-2
Total: 7-23 (N)

6 (Upper Iowa)

Wk. 1: 0-1 (N)
Wk. 2: 1-0
Wk. 3: 1-0
Wk. 4: 0-1
Wk. 5: 0-1
Wk. 6: 0-1
Wk. 7: 0-1
Wk. 8: 1-0
Wk. 9: 0-1
Wk. 10: 0-1
Total 3-7 (N)

4 (Quincy)

Wk. 1: 0-1 (N)
Wk. 2: 1-0
Wk. 3: 1-0
Wk. 4: 1-0
Wk. 5: 1-0
Wk. 6: 0-1
Wk. 7: 1-0
Wk. 8: 0-1
Wk. 9: 0-1
Wk. 10: 0-1
Total: 5-5

Weekly W/L by Group

Strong (17,16, 15) (17 Teams)
Ranked: Ferris St., Grand Valley, Delta St.

Wk. 1: 8-12 (3-1)
Wk. 3: 10-8 (2-1)
Wk. 4: 6-10 (1-0)
Wk. 5: 9-8 (3-0)
Wk. 6: 6-12 (3-0)
Wk. 7: 10-7 (2-1)
Wk. 8: 9-8 (2-1)
Wk. 9: 10-7 (2-0)
Wk. 10: 11-6 (3-0)
Total: 87-86 (24-5)

Above Average (14, 13) (34 Teams)
Ranked: Central Wash., Minn.-Mankato, Colo. Mines

Wk. 1: 20-13 (6-1)
Wk. 2: 8-15 (3-4)
Wk. 3: 14-20 (3-4)
Wk. 4: 18-13 (4-1)
Wk. 5: 18-15 (5-0)
Wk. 6: 21-12 (4-0)
Wk. 7: 19-14 (5-1)
Wk. 8: 18-16 (3-3)
Wk. 9: 17-17 (3-2)
Wk. 10: 17-15 (2-0)
Total: 170-151 (38-16)

Average (12, 11) (51 Teams)
Ranked: West Fla., Western Colo., Central Mo., Va. Union, Bemidji St.

Wk. 1: 18-32 (4-0)
Wk. 2: 24-27 (4-0)
Wk. 3: 19-25 (3-2)
Wk. 4: 24-14 (5-2)
Wk. 5: 21-28 (5-3)
Wk. 6: 26-21 (4-2)
Wk. 7: 23-28 (5-1)
Wk. 8: 25-25 (5-1)
Wk. 9: 25-26 (3-2)
Wk. 10: 25-25 (5-0)
Total: 230-251 (43-13)

Below Average (10, 9) (42 Teams)
Ranked: Indy, Pitt. St., L-R, Mars Hill, Benedict, Tiffin, Mo. Western, Davenport, UT-Permian, Slippery Rock

Wk. 1: 27-14 (8-0)
Wk. 2: 19-22 (5-2)
Wk. 3: 21-19 (6-1)
Wk. 4: 22-20 (7-0)
Wk. 5: 20-21 (6-1)
Wk. 6: 23-18 (7-0)
Wk. 7: 21-18 (6-1)
Wk. 8: 18-22 (7-0)
Wk. 9: 23-18 (7-1)
Wk. 10: 17-15 (6-4)
Total: 211-187 (65-10)

Weak (8, 7, 6, 4) (17 Teams)
Ranked: Harding, Ouachita Baptist, Augustana, Valdosta St.

Wk. 1: 10-6 (2-0)
Wk. 2: 10-7 (2-0)
Wk. 3: 11-6 (2-0)
Wk. 4: 8-9 (2-0)
Wk. 5: 11-7 (2-0)
Wk. 6: 3-14 (2-1)
Wk. 7: 7-10 (2-1)
Wk. 8: 8-9 (3-0)
Wk. 9: 6-11 (3-1)
Wk. 10: 10-7 (4-0)
Total: 84-86 (24-3)

[Argonut]

Here is the 2023 playoff field with corrected early schedule difficulty values based on the 2023 opponents actual 2023 records. Based on my review of last 6 playoff fields no team has won the title with a point value higher than 13 and teams with higher point values win more games in the first round: 35-28 with 9 matchups having same point values.

The 2023 playoff field has the lowest average (10.57) early schedule difficulty value (easier) of the last six fields and the most teams (15) with a below average (-11) early schedule difficulty value. This field supports the argument and practice to schedule easy in your first three games if you want to make the final 28. My earlier post on page 3 of this thread has the breakdown of all 7 playoff fields from 2016-2023.

Region 1 (Average for Region: 9.71)

Tiffin (12)
East Stroudsburg (9) @ Slippery Rock (7)
New Haven (11) @ Charleston (10)
Va. Union (8) @ Kutztown (11)

Region 2 (10.57)

Benedict (10)
Shepherd (10) @ Lenior-Rhyne (9)
West Florida (14) @ Delta State (12)
Limestone (11) @ Valdosta State (6)

Region 3 (11.71)

Harding (9)
Henderson State (10) @ Central Missouri (13)
Ferris State (15) @ Grand Valley (13)
Indianapolis (9) @ Pittsburg State (13)

Region 4 (10.57)

Colorado Mines (12)
Minnesota-Mankato (10) @ Augustana (8)
Central Washington (13) @ Western Colorado (12)
Bemidji State (9) @ UT-Permian Basin (10)

[Predatory Primates]

Only 2 teams are above 13.

[Argonut]

Only 2 teams are above 13.

And those two teams are on the road against, arguably, the top team in that region in the first round and are projected to lose and be eliminated by the D2 pickem panel.

[Predatory Primates]

And those two teams are on the road against, arguably, the top team in that region in the first round and are projected to lose and be eliminated by the D2 pickem panel.

Not sure I would bet against Ferris, even without Rasputin on the sidelines.

[Redwing]

Not sure I would bet against Ferris, even without Rasputin on the sidelines.

Not sure I would bet against GV, even though they are a #2 seed. and ranked 2nd in the country.

[Predatory Primates]

Not sure I would bet against GV, even though they are a #2 seed. and ranked 2nd in the country.

Yeah. They're both great. They have been GV playoff kryptonite since Moby Dick was a minnow, though.

[Argonut]

The first round eliminated the two teams with a difficulty value of over 13 (Ferris and West Fla.) and the teams with an easy early schedule went 8-4 over teams with a more difficult early schedule. No team has won the title in the last 6 years with a value of more than 13 and it will now be 7 years in a row.

The remaining teams average difficulty value dropped to 10.43, which is lower than the 2023 D2 average for all teams of 11.38. The remaining field of 16 has 9 teams who match the early schedule elements of the last 6 champions and are marked with hashtag below.

Teams with lower values tend to win more in the second round. Higher values usually win more in first round, but that trend was flipped in this year’s first round.

# (10) Benedict v. L-R (9) #
(12) Delta St. v. Valdosta St. (6) #

# (9) Harding v. Central Mo. (13)
(13) Grand Valley v. Pitt. St. (13) #

(12) Colo. Mines v. Augustana (8) #
(13) Central Wash. v. Bemidji St. (9) #

# (12) Tiffin v. Slippery Rock (7) #
(10) Charleston v. Kutztown (11)

[Predatory Primates]

If this thing holds up, we need to get you to focus that love of numbers on energy stocks or crypto currency or something. We can all kick in and set up a mini hedge fund.

[BillyGV]

How did GV fall to a 13 - their last two teams they beat were 9-1 and 8-2 - why now 13? - thanks

[KleShreen]

How did GV fall to a 13 - their last two teams they beat were 9-1 and 8-2 - why now 13? - thanks

All these numbers are only talking about early season schedule difficulty. Only the first 3 games of the season. The whole point of this post, and he can correct me if I'm wrong, is pointing out that schools which have easier early season schedules are more likely to make the playoffs and go far in the playoffs, compared to teams which have tougher early season schedules.

My assumption of why GV went down is because Assumption sucked this year and went from being a playoff team last year, to being an under .500 team this year. He re-adjusted the numbers based on 2023 final results.

[Argonut]

All these numbers are only talking about early season schedule difficulty. Only the first 3 games of the season. The whole point of this post, and he can correct me if I'm wrong, is pointing out that schools which have easier early season schedules are more likely to make the playoffs and go far in the playoffs, compared to teams which have tougher early season schedules.

My assumption of why GV went down is because Assumption sucked this year and went from being a playoff team last year, to being an under .500 team this year. He re-adjusted the numbers based on 2023 final results.

I could not have explained it better. The original point values for this season we’re based on 2022 record of first three opponents and playoff teams point values based on the opponents record for 2023. There were slight changes up and down and some remained the same.

[Argonut]

The second round also saw the teams with lower values (Easier early schedule) win more games in second round 4-3-1 (Lower-Higher-Same value) which brings record of teams with easier schedules to 12-7-1 through both rounds of 2023.

Teams with easier schedules are now 34-20-2 in second round from 2016-2023. Teams with easier early schedules are now up to 88-76-18 from 2016 playoffs through first two rounds of 2023.

From 2016-2022 the teams with lower values are slightly ahead of highers in the regional finals by a count of 10-9-5.

The remaining 8 teams in 2023 have an average value of 10 with 4 teams having a below average difficulty, 2 teams with average difficulty and 2 teams with slightly above average difficulty. For comparison the average difficulty for all of D2 this year was 11.38 and the 28 team playoff field average from 2016-2023 are below.

Playoff Field Average Difficulty Values

2016: 11.35
2017: 10.89
2018: 10.75
2019: 11.28
2021: 11.53
2022: 11.28
2023: 10.57

Regional Finals with point values and hashtags for teams that match early schedule elements of last 6 champions. No team since 2016 has won title with value higher than 13 and remaining teams follow this trend for a seventh year in a row. It’s obviously clear by regional finals that starting the year with a hard schedule will eliminate you from going deep in the playoffs and starting easier can help get you to the regionals since half of the remaining teams had an easier start to the season.

# (7) Slippery Rock v. Kutztown (11)
# (9) L-R v. Valdosta State (6) #
# (9) Harding v. Grand Valley (13)
(12) Colo. Mines v. Central Wash. (13)