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  • Early Season Schedule Difficulty

    A comment by a GSC fan led me to come up with a point scale to rate the first 3 games of the GSC season. A 5 team logjam at the top required the use of road games as a differentiator as best I could. The scoring was meaningless unless compared to other conferences, so that is what I did.

    The first section is the point values based on last year’s records since that is all I have until the computers take over for this year. The second section is a ranking list of the conferences average score. The last is each conference and the teams individual scores. As expected, the teams that venture OOC are at the top.

    Point Values

    1- Road Game additional point
    1- NAIA, D3, etc. opponent
    2- Weak under .500 opponent
    3- .500 opponent, more or less
    4- Strong +.500 opponent
    5- Playoff team
    6- FCS opponent
    7- FCS ranked

    Conference Ranking and Avg. Score

    1. GSC 12.88
    2. GLIAC 11.85
    3. SIAC 11.84
    4. SAC 11.83
    5. MEC 11.63
    6. NE10 11.62
    7. NSIC 11.53
    8. PSAC 11.50
    9. RMAC 11.40
    10. GMAC 11.20
    11. LSC 11.11
    12. CIAA 11.08
    13. MIAA 10.90
    14. GAC 10.75
    15. GLVC 9.66

    Note: The average of the above conference averages is 11.38, which should give you a good idea where a team’s opening 3 games difficulty factor stacks up across all of D2.

    I plan to see how the teams fared after the third game to see if there any obvious patterns resulting from a hard opening schedule. It will also be interesting to see how many teams with hard opening schedules make the playoffs.

    I realized going through scores in week 1 that I left out Eastern New Mexico from the Lone Star Conference. I have adjusted the conference and D2 total averages as a result. The LSC drops to #11 as a result of adding E. New Mexico.

    GSC

    15-pts. North Greenville 5-5
    15- West Ala. 5-5, West Ga. 6-4
    15- Delta St. 9-1
    15- Shorter 3-8
    12- West Fla. 8-3
    11- Chowan 0-10
    10- Miss. College 3-7
    8- Valdosta St. 10-1

    GLIAC

    16- Ferris St. 8-2
    16- Grand Valley 9-1
    14- Wayne St. 3-8
    12- Saginaw Valley 6-5
    9- Davenport 8-2
    8- No. MIchigan 1-10
    8- Michigan Tech. 5-5

    SIAC

    16- Central St. 5-5
    15- Morehouse 1-9
    15- Lane 2-8, Miles 7-3
    12- Edward Waters 6-3
    11- Albany St. 5-6
    11- Clark Atlanta 0-10, Ft. Valley 7-3
    10- Savannah St. 3-7
    10- Tuskegee 7-3, Benedict 11-0
    9- Allen 6-3
    9- Kentucky St. 3-7

    SAC

    17- Tusculum 6-5
    14- Emory Henry 5-6
    14- Carson Newman 5-6
    14- Barton 6-5
    13- Wingate 8-3
    11- Limestone 8-3
    11- Erskine 0-11
    10- LR 10-1, Newberry 4-7, Mars Hill 8-2
    Catawba 5-6
    9- UVA Wise 2-9

    MEC

    15- W. Va. St. 4-6
    13- Frostburg St. 7-3
    13- Pembroke 7-3, Glenville St. 6-4
    12- Charleston 9-1
    12- W. Va. Wesleyan 0-10
    11- Notre Dame 7-3
    11- Concord 1-10
    10- West Liberty 4-6
    9- Wheeling 5-5
    9- Fairmont St. 8-3

    LSC

    14- Angelo St. 7-3
    14- Central Wash. 7-3
    13- Midwestern St. 4-6
    12- TAM-Kingsville 7-3
    12- Western Oregon 3-8
    10- West Texas AM 3-7
    9- UT-Permian 10-1
    9- W. New Mexico 2-8
    7- E. New Mexico 5-6

    NE10

    15- Southern Conn. 4-6
    13- Assumption 5-5
    13- American International 3-8
    12- Franklin Pierce 4-6
    11- New Haven 7-3
    11- Bentley 7-3
    9- St . Anselm 6-4
    9- Pace 3-7

    NSIC

    14- SW Minn. St. 2-9
    13- Mary 2-9, Winona 5-6, SF 3-8, Mankato 9-2
    12- Northern St. 5-6, Concordia St. Paul 3-8
    11- Bemidji 8-2, Minn.-Duluth 9-2
    10- Wayne St. 8-3
    10- Minot St. 1-10, Minn.-Moorhead 7-4
    8- Augustana 10-1

    PSAC

    15- Westchester 5-6
    14- Millersville 3-7
    14- Shepherd 9-2
    13- Mercyhurst 2-9
    13- Shippensburg 3-8, Edinboro 3-8
    13- California 7-3
    12- Gannon 5-6
    12- Kutztown 9-2
    11- Seton Hill 6-5
    11- East Stroudsburg 9-2
    10- IUP 6-5
    9- Bloomsburg 3-8
    9- Slippery Rock 10-1
    8- Lock Haven 5-6
    7- Clarion 2-9

    RMAC

    17- Colo. Mesa 6-5
    13- Colo. Mines 11-0
    13- CSU-Pueblo 8-3
    12- Adams St. 3-8
    12- Black Hills 6-5
    12- Western Colo. 10-1
    11- Chadron St. 5-6
    9- New Mexico Highlands 2-9
    8- SD Mines 5-6
    7- Ft. Lewis 0-11

    GMAC

    15- Hillsdale 6-5
    14- Ashland 8-3
    12- Northwood 4-6
    12- Thomas More 5-6
    11- Findlay 7-3, Ohio Dom. 4-7, Ky. Wesleyan 4-7
    9- Lake Erie 1-10, Tiffin 11-0
    8- Walsh 3-8

    CIAA

    14- Bowie St. 6-4, Shaw 3-6, Winston-Salem 4-6
    13- Virginia St. 8-2
    11- Virginia Union 10-1
    11- Lincoln (Pa,) 4-6
    10- Fayetteville St. 7-3
    10- Bluefield St. 1-9, Livingstone 3-6
    10- St. Augustine’s 1-9
    8- Elizabeth City 2-7
    8- Johnson Smith 7-3

    MIAA

    15- Mo. Southern 5-6
    13- Ft. Hayes 7-4
    12- Central Mo. 10-1
    11- NE St. 1-10
    11- Emporia St. 8-3, Washburn 4-7
    10- NW Mo. St. 7-4, Pitt. St. 10-1, Central Okla. 5-6
    9-Mo. Western 8-3
    8- Neb.-Kearny 3-8

    GAC

    14- So. Ark. 9-2
    12- Henderson St. 9-2
    12- SW Okla. 0-11
    11- So. Nazarene 6-5, SE Okla. 5-6
    11- East Central 3-8, Okla. Baptist 5-6
    11- NW Okla. 1-10
    10- Ark. Tech. 5-6
    10- Ark.-Monticello 2-9
    8- Harding 11-0, Ouachita Baptist 9-2

    GLVC

    13- Truman St. 9-2
    12- McKendree 5-5
    12- Lincoln (Mo.) 0-11
    11- Mo. S and T 3-8
    10- Wm. Jewell 2-8
    10- Indy 9-1
    9- SW Baptist 4-7
    6- Upper Iowa 3-8
    4- Quincy 6-5
    Last edited by Argonut; 11-11-2023, 09:17 PM.

  • #2
    Why is Tusculum so high? Kennesaw State is an FCS opponent and Virginia State is okay, but it seems like they shouldn't be higher than, say, Ferris State, comparatively, who is also facing an FCS opponent and Ashland?
    2021 D2Football Fantasy Champion

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    • #3
      Tusculum gets 6 pts. for playing FCS Kennesaw plus 1 for going on road. Tusculum gets 3 pts. for playing .500 Virginia St. plus 1 for going on road. Tusculum gets 5 pts. for playing playoff team Wingate plus 1 for going on road. Going on road X3 gets Tusculum up to a total of 17.

      Ferris plays at home against under .500 Mercyhurst for 2 pts. Ferris gets 5 pts. for playing playoff team Ashland plus 1 for going on road. Ferris gets 7 pts. for playing ranked FCS plus 1 for going on road. Playing weak Mercyhurst at home keeps Ferris points down to 16. If Ferris went on road against Mercyhurst it would be a tie.

      I would agree that Ferris played the toughest single team in Montana, but the points are assessed for 3 opening games, not just one. I guess you could go deeper into strength of schedule computer metrics, but I chose a simpler approach with the point values.

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      • #4
        Originally posted by Argonut View Post
        Tusculum gets 6 pts. for playing FCS Kennesaw plus 1 for going on road. Tusculum gets 3 pts. for playing .500 Virginia St. plus 1 for going on road. Tusculum gets 5 pts. for playing playoff team Wingate plus 1 for going on road. Going on road X3 gets Tusculum up to a total of 17.

        Ferris plays at home against under .500 Mercyhurst for 2 pts. Ferris gets 5 pts. for playing playoff team Ashland plus 1 for going on road. Ferris gets 7 pts. for playing ranked FCS plus 1 for going on road. Playing weak Mercyhurst at home keeps Ferris points down to 16. If Ferris went on road against Mercyhurst it would be a tie.

        I would agree that Ferris played the toughest single team in Montana, but the points are assessed for 3 opening games, not just one. I guess you could go deeper into strength of schedule computer metrics, but I chose a simpler approach with the point values.
        Ohhhh. I missed the entire point about it counting all games. I thought it was just non-conference games in the first three weeks. Haha. Thanks!
        2021 D2Football Fantasy Champion

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        • #5
          WOW! Impressive work, Argo!!

          #BlazerNation

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          • #6
            I like the formula but any consideration into points for playing ranked D2 opponents?

            Fort Hays State plays two preseason top 5 opponents in weeks 2 & 3 to start the season.

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            • #7
              Ft, Hays points for week 2 and 3 were for playing playoff teams, which is essentially the same thing as a ranked team. Good luck with that early schedule-that’s above average in difficulty.

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              • #8
                This is meaningless for the GAC. Because of silo scheduling all GAC teams by the end of regular season have a SOS no better than .500

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                • #9
                  FCS should not be extra points imo.

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                  • #10
                    Originally posted by OldBison View Post
                    This is meaningless for the GAC. Because of silo scheduling all GAC teams by the end of regular season have a SOS no better than .500
                    The point of this analysis is to look at only the first three games of the season when most D2 teams schedule the widest variety of opponents, from club teams to ranked FSC. Once you determine a scale of difficulty on this early start you can then assess what impact this early schedule (hard, medium or soft) has on the team’s chances for a winning season or the playoffs.

                    I am curious to see what the records are after 3 weeks, at playoff selection time and success in the playoffs by the teams who had soft or hard starts to the season.

                    Does a hard start injure and shell shock a team into a death spiral and should hard starts only be attempted by top 10 teams? On the other hand, should coaches schedule soft starts to hopefully snowball a team into a playoff spot? The last 5 D2 champions had the scheduling flexibility to schedule whoever they wish in the first three weeks and this flexibility may be an advantage to making the playoffs, a deep playoff run or the title.

                    I hope to find some answers throughout the course of this season.

                    Last edited by Argonut; 08-29-2023, 06:28 AM.

                    Comment


                    • #11
                      Originally posted by Argonut View Post

                      The point of this analysis is to look at only the first three games of the season when most D2 teams schedule the widest variety of opponents, from club teams to ranked FSC. Once you determine a scale of difficulty on this early start you can then assess what impact this early schedule (hard, medium or soft) has on the team’s chances for a winning season or the playoffs.

                      I am curious to see what the records are after 3 weeks, at playoff selection time and success in the playoffs by the teams who had soft or hard starts to the season.

                      Does a hard start injure and shell shock a team into a death spiral and should hard starts only be attempted by top 10 teams? On the other hand, should coaches schedule soft starts to hopefully snowball a team into a playoff spot? The last 5 D2 champions had the scheduling flexibility to schedule whoever they wish in the first three weeks and this flexibility may be an advantage to making the playoffs, a deep playoff run or the title.

                      I hope to find some answers throughout the course of this season.
                      Looking at the MIAA in the silo years gives you a nice mini view of the same thing.

                      Based on that, I have seen it go both ways. Starting out soft can allow a team to build confidence, or it can build false confidence/ complacency. Starting with murderers row can kill a teams confidence, or forge real strength.

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                      • #12
                        Originally posted by Predatory Primates View Post

                        Looking at the MIAA in the silo years gives you a nice mini view of the same thing.

                        Based on that, I have seen it go both ways. Starting out soft can allow a team to build confidence, or it can build false confidence/ complacency. Starting with murderers row can kill a teams confidence, or forge real strength.

                        I agree that hard or soft starts can go two directions and this analysis is an attempt to find out what the percentages are for a hard, medium or soft start in the context of one season.

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                        • #13
                          Originally posted by Argonut View Post
                          Tusculum gets 6 pts. for playing FCS Kennesaw plus 1 for going on road. Tusculum gets 3 pts. for playing .500 Virginia St. plus 1 for going on road. Tusculum gets 5 pts. for playing playoff team Wingate plus 1 for going on road. Going on road X3 gets Tusculum up to a total of 17.

                          Ferris plays at home against under .500 Mercyhurst for 2 pts. Ferris gets 5 pts. for playing playoff team Ashland plus 1 for going on road. Ferris gets 7 pts. for playing ranked FCS plus 1 for going on road. Playing weak Mercyhurst at home keeps Ferris points down to 16. If Ferris went on road against Mercyhurst it would be a tie.

                          I would agree that Ferris played the toughest single team in Montana, but the points are assessed for 3 opening games, not just one. I guess you could go deeper into strength of schedule computer metrics, but I chose a simpler approach with the point values.
                          I think Western Oregon has the single toughest opponent in South Dakota State. They are defending FCS champs as well as being the #1 FCS ranked team.

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                          • #14
                            Originally posted by Runnin' Cat View Post

                            I think Western Oregon has the single toughest opponent in South Dakota State. They are defending FCS champs as well as being the #1 FCS ranked team.
                            I was referring to the toughest between Ferris and Tusculum, not all FCS. You’re right though, playing the #1 FCS team is the single toughest opponent that any D2 team plays this year.

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                            • #15
                              Originally posted by Runnin' Cat View Post

                              I think Western Oregon has the single toughest opponent in South Dakota State. They are defending FCS champs as well as being the #1 FCS ranked team.
                              That game is going to be... pretty gnarly. I commend WOU for taking on the Jacks, but wow.

                              I know several people going. I considered it, but I'll be in Sioux Falls for the USF/MSU matchup instead.

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