Early Season Schedule Difficulty

[Argonut]

9-25-23 D2 poll with early schedule difficulty values. The hashtag indicates teams that match the early schedule elements of the last 6 D2 champions: difficulty value below 14 and blowing out at least 2 of their first three opponents.

1. Ferris St. 2-1 (16)
2. Colo. Mines 4-0 (13)
3. Pitt. St. 4-0 (10) #
4. Grand Valley 2-1 (16)
5. Minn.-Mankato 4-0 (13) #
6. Delta St. 4-0 (15)
7. Bemidji St. 4-0 (11) #
8. West Fla. 3-1 (12) #
9. Ouachita Baptist 4-0 (8) #
10. Emporia St. 4-0 (11) #
11. Harding 4-0 (8) #
12. Slippery Rock 4-0 (9) #
13. Benedict 4-0 (10) #
14. Indianapolis 3-0 (10) #
15. Lenior-Rhyne 4-0 (10) #
16. Davenport 3-0 (9)
17. Western Colo. 4-0 (12)
18. IUP 3-1 (10)
19. Angelo St. 2-2 (14)
20. TAM-Kingsville 3-0 (12) #
21. Truman St. 4-0 (13)
22. Central Mo. 3-1 (12)
23. Shepherd 3-1 (14)
24. Va. Union 3-1 (11)
25.Minn.-Duluth 4-0 (11) #

[Argonut]

10-2-23 D2 poll with record, early schedule difficulty value and hashtag for teams that match the early schedule elements of last 6 D2 champions.

1. Ferris St. 3-1 (16)
2. Colo. Mines 5-0 (13)
3. Pitt. St. 5-0 (10) #
4. Grand Valley 3-1 (16)
5. Minn.-Mankato 5-0 (13) #
6. Delta St. 5-0 (15)
7. West Fla. 4-1 (12) #
8. Ouachita Baptist 5-0 (8) #
9. Harding 5-0 (8) #
10. Slippery Rock 5-0 (9) #
11. Bemidji St. 4-1 (11) #
12. Benedict 5-0 (10) #
13. L-R 5-0 (10) #
14. Indy 4-0 (10) #
15. Davenport 4-0 (9)
16. Western Colo. 5-0 (12)
17. Emporia St. 4-1 (11) #
18. Central Mo. 4-1 (12)
19. Angelo St. 3-2 (14)
20. Truman St. 5-0 (13)
21. Minn.-Duluth 5-0 (11) #
22. Shepherd 4-1 (14)
23. Va. Union 4-1 (11)
24. Mo. Western 4-1 (9)
25. Valdosta St. 5-0 (8) #

[Argonut]

Here are the week 5 W/L results for the different schedule difficulty point values using the previous week D2 poll for the ranked teams.

D2 vs. FCS

Wk. 1: 3-10
Wk. 2: 3-5
Wk. 3: 1-3
Wk. 4: 0-1
Wk. 5: 0-2
Total: 7-21

Good (5-0) / Bad (0-5) Start (No. teams at point value)

+12: 5 / 2
11-12: 3 / 9
-11: 9 / 2

W/L records at each point value (Ranked Record)

17 (Tusculum and Colo. Mesa)
Wk. 1: 0-2 (No Ranked)
Wk. 2: 1-1 (N)
Wk. 3: 2-0 (N)
Wk. 4: 1-1 (N)
Wk. 5: 0-2 (N)
Total: 4-6 (N)

16 (Ferris, Grand Valley and Central St.)
Wk. 1: 2-1 (1-1)
Wk. 2: 2-1 (2-0)
Wk. 3: 1-2 (1-1)
Wk. 4: 0-1 (0-0)
Wk. 5: 2-1 (2-0)
Total: 7-6 (6-2)

15 (13 teams at this point value)
Wk. 1: 4-9 (2-0)
Wk. 2: 7-6 (1-1)
Wk. 3: 7-6 (1-0)
Wk. 4: 5-8 (1-0)
Wk. 5: 7-5 (1-0)
Total: 30-34 (6-1)

14 (14 teams at this point value)
Wk. 1: 9-5 (2-1)
Wk. 2: 6-8 (1-2)
Wk. 3: 6-8 (1-1)
Wk. 4: 7-7 (1-1)
Wk. 5: 7-7 (2-0)
Total: 35-35 (7-5)

13 (20 teams)
Wk. 1: 11-8 (4-0)
Wk. 2: 12-7 (2-2)
Wk. 3: 8-12 (2-3)
Wk. 4: 11-7 (3-0)
Wk. 5: 11-8 (3-0)
Total: 53-42 (14-5)

12 (22 teams)
Wk. 1: 10-11 (1-0)
Wk. 2: 10-12 (1-0)
Wk. 3: 9-12 (0-2)
Wk. 4: 11-9 (3-1)
Wk. 5: 11-10 (3-1)
Totals: 51-54 (8-4)

11 (29 teams)
Wk. 1: 8-21 (3-0)
Wk. 2: 14-15 (3-0)
Wk. 3: 16-13 (3-0)
Wk. 4: 13-15 (2-1)
Wk. 5: 10-18 (2-2)
Totals: 61-82 (13-3)

10 (25 teams)
Wk. 1: 16-8 (6-0)
Wk. 2: 10-14 (3-2)
Wk. 3: 13-11 (5-1)
Wk. 4: 12-13 (5-0)
Wk. 5: 14-10 (4-1)
Total: 65-56 (23-4)

9 (17 teams)
Wk. 1: 11-6 (2-0)
Wk. 2: 9-8 (2-0)
Wk. 3: 8-8 (2-0)
Wk. 4: 10-7 (2-0)
Wk. 5: 6-11 (2-0)
Total: 44-40 (10-0)

8 (12 teams)
Wk. 1: 8-3 (2-0)
Wk. 2: 7-5 (2-0)
Wk. 3: 8-4 (2-0)
Wk. 4: 7-5 (2-0)
Wk. 5: 10-3 (2-0)
Total: 40-20 (10-0)

7 (Clarion, E. New Mexico and Ft. Lewis)
Wk. 1: 2-1 (N)
Wk. 2: 1-2 (N)
Wk. 3: 1-2 (N)
Wk. 4: 0-3 (N)
Wk. 5: 0-3 (N)
Total: 4-11

6 (Upper Iowa)
Wk. 1: 0-1 (N)
Wk. 2: 1-0 (N)
Wk. 3: 1-0 (N)
Wk. 4: 0-1 (N)
Wk. 5: 0-1 (N)
Total: 2-3

4 (Quincy)
Wk. 1: 0-1 (N)
Wk. 2: 1-0 (N)
Wk. 3: 1-0 (N)
Wk. 4: 1-0 (N)
Wk. 5: 1-0 (N)
Total: 4-1


W/L records by grouped point values

Strong (Points 17-15)
Ranked: Ferris St., Grand Valley, Delta St.

Wk. 1: 6-12 (Ranked 3-1)
Wk. 2: 10-8 (3-1)
Wk. 3: 10-8 (2-1)
Wk. 4: 6-10 (1-0)
Wk. 5: 9-8 (3-0)
Total: 41-46 (12-3)

Above Average (Points 14, 13)
Ranked: Angelo St., Minn.-Mankato, Colo. Mines, Truman St., Shepherd

Wk. 1: 20-13 (6-1)
Wk. 2: 8-15 (3-4)
Wk. 3: 14-20 (3-4)
Wk. 4: 18-13 (4-1)
Wk. 5: 18-15 (5-0)
Total: 78-77 (21-10)

Average (Points 12, 11)
Ranked: West Fla., TAM-Kingsville, Western Colo., Central Mo., Bemidji St., Minn.-Duluth, Va. Union, Emporia St.

Wk. 1: 18-32 (4-0)
Wk. 2: 24-27 (4-0)
Wk. 3: 19-25 (3-2)
Wk. 4: 24-14 (5-2)
Wk. 5: 21-28 (5-3)
Total: 106-126 (21-7)

Below Average (Points 10, 9)
Ranked: Indy, Pitt. St., IUP, L-R, Slippery Rock, Benedict, Davenport

Wk. 1: 27-14 (8-0)
Wk. 2: 19-22 (5-2)
Wk. 3: 21-19 (6-1)
Wk. 4: 22-20 (7-0)
Wk. 5: 20-21 (6-1)
Total: 109-96 (32-4)

Weak (Points 8-4)
Ranked: Harding, Ouachita Baptist

Wk. 1: 10-6 (2-0)
Wk. 2: 10-7 (2-0)
Wk. 3: 11-6 (2-0)
Wk. 4: 8-9 (2-0)
Wk. 5: 11-7 (2-0)
Total: 50-35 (10-0)

[Argonut]

10-9-23 D2 poll with record, early schedule difficulty value and hashtag for teams that match early schedule elements of last 6 D2 champions.

1. Ferris St., 4-1 (16)
2. Colo. Mines, 6-0 (13)
3. Pitt. St., 6-0 (10) #
4. Grand Valley, 4-1 (16)
5. Minn.-Mankato, 6-0 (13) #
6. Delta St., 6-0 (15)
7. West Fla., 5-1 (12) #
8. Ouachita Baptist, 6-0 (8) #
9. Harding, 6-0 (8) #
10. Slippery Rock, 6-0 (9) #
11. Bemidji St., 4-1 (11) #
12. Benedict. 6-0 (10) #
13. L-R, 6-0 (10) #
14. Indy, 5-0 (10) #
15. Western Colo., 6-0 (12)
16. Davenport, 5-0 (9)
17. Central Mo., 5-1 (12)
18. Truman St., 6-0 (13)
19. Angelo St., 3-2 (14)
20. Shepherd, 5-1 (14)
21. Mo. Western, 5-1 (9)
22. Va. Union, 5-1 (11)
23. Emporia St., 4-2 (11) #
24. Augustana, 6-0 (8) #
25. Va. St., 6-0 (13)

[Argonut]

Here are the week 6 results using last week’s D2 poll for ranked team W/L.

D2 vs. FCS

Wk. 1: 3-10
Wk. 2: 3-5
Wk. 3: 1-3
Wk. 4: 0-1
Wk. 5: 0-2
Wk. 6: 0-0
Total: 7-21

Good (6-0) / Bad (0-6) Start (No. teams at each point)

+12 pts.: 5 / 2
11-12 pts.: 1 / 8
-11 pts.: 8 / 2

W/L at each early schedule point value (Ranked record)

17 (Tusculum, Colo. Mesa)

Wk. 1: 0-2 (No Ranked)
Wk. 2: 1-1 (N)
Wk. 3: 2-0 (N)
Wk. 4: 1-1 (N)
Wk. 5: 0-2 (N)
Wk. 6: 1-1 (N)
Total: 5-7 (N)

16 (Ferris St., Grand Valley, Central St.)

Wk. 1: 2-1 (Ranked 1-1)
Wk. 2: 2-1 (2-0)
Wk. 3: 1-2 (1-1)
Wk. 4: 0-1 (0-0)
Wk. 5: 2-1 (2-0)
Wk. 6: 2-1 (2-0)
Total: 9-7 (8-2)

15 (13 teams at this point value)

Wk. 1: 4-9 (2-0)
Wk. 2: 7-6 (1-1)
Wk. 3: 7-6 (1-0)
Wk. 4: 5-8 (1-0)
Wk. 5: 7-5 (1-0)
Wk. 6: 3-10 (1-0)
Total: 33-44 (7-1)

14 (14 teams)

Wk. 1: 9-5 (2-1)
Wk. 2: 6-8 (1-2)
Wk. 3: 6-8 (1-1)
Wk. 4: 7-7 (1-1)
Wk. 5: 7-7 (2-0)
Wk. 6: 8-5 (1-0)
Total: 43-40 (8-5)

13 (20 teams)

Wk. 1: 11-8 (4-0)
Wk. 2: 12-7 (2-2)
Wk. 3: 8-12 (2-3)
Wk. 4: 11-7 (3-0)
Wk. 5: 11-8 (3-0)
Wk. 6: 13-7 (3-0)
Total: 66-49 (17-5)

12 (22 teams)

Wk. 1: 10-11 (1-0)
Wk. 2: 10-12 (1-0)
Wk. 3: 9-12 (0-2)
Wk. 4: 11-9 (3-1)
Wk. 5: 11-10 (3-1)
Wk. 6: 13-7 (3-0)
Total: 64-61 (11-4)

11 (29 teams)

Wk. 1: 8-21 (3-0)
Wk. 2: 14-15 (3-0)
Wk. 3: 16-13 (3-0)
Wk. 4: 13-15 (2-1)
Wk. 5: 10-18 (2-2)
Wk. 6: 13-14 (1-2)
Total: 74-96 (14-5)

10 (25 teams)

Wk. 1: 16-8 (6-0)
Wk. 2: 10-14 (3-2)
Wk. 3: 13-11 (5-1)
Wk. 4: 12-13 (5-0)
Wk. 5: 14-10 (4-1)
Wk. 6: 12-12 (4-0)
Total: 77-68 (27-4)

9 (17 teams)

Wk. 1: 11-6 (2-0)
Wk. 2: 9-8 (2-0)
Wk. 3: 8-8 (2-0)
Wk. 4: 10-7 (2-0)
Wk. 5: 6-11 (2-0)
Wk. 6: 11-6 (3-0)
Total: 55-46 (13-0)

8 (12 teams)

Wk. 1: 8-3 (2-0)
Wk. 2: 7-5 (2-0)
Wk. 3: 8-4 (2-0)
Wk. 4: 7-5 (2-0)
Wk. 5: 10-3 (2-0)
Wk. 6: 3-9 (2-0)
Total: 43-29 (12-0)

7 (Clarion, E. New Mexico, Ft. Lewis)

Wk. 1: 2-1 (No Ranked)
Wk. 2: 1-2 (N)
Wk. 3: 1-2 (N)
Wk. 4: 0-3 (N)
Wk. 5: 0-3 (N)
Wk. 6: 0-3 (N)
Total: 4-14

6 (Upper Iowa)

Wk. 1: 0-1 (N)
Wk. 2: 1-0 (N)
Wk. 3: 1-0 (N)
Wk. 4: 0-1 (N)
Wk. 5: 0-1 (N)
Wk. 6: 0-1 (N)
Total: 2-4

4 (Quincy)

Wk. 1: 0-1 (N)
Wk. 2: 1-0 (N)
Wk. 3: 1-0 (N)
Wk. 4: 1-0 (N)
Wk. 5: 1-0 (N)
Wk. 6: 0-1 (N)
Total: 4-2


W/L by point value grouping

Strong (Points 17-15)
Ranked: Ferris St., Grand Valley, Delta St.

Wk. 1: 6-12 (Ranked 3-1)
Wk. 2: 10-8 (3-1)
Wk. 3: 10-8 (2-1)
Wk. 4: 6-10 (1-0)
Wk. 5: 9-8 (3-0)
Wk. 6: 6-12 (3-0)
Total: 47-58 (15-3)

Above Average (Points 14, 13)
Ranked: Angelo St., Shepherd, Colo. Mines, Minn.- Mankato, Truman St,

Wk. 1: 20-13 (6-1)
Wk. 2: 8-15 (3-4)
Wk. 3: 14-20 (3-4)
Wk. 4: 18-13 (4-1)
Wk. 5: 18-15 (5-0)
Wk. 6: 21-12 (4-0)
Totals: 99-89 (25-10)

Average (Points 12, 11)
Ranked: West Fla., Western Colo., Central Mo., Minn.-Duluth, Bemidji St., Emporia St., Va. Union

Wk. 1: 18-32 (4-0)
Wk. 2: 24-27 (4-9)
Wk. 3: 19-25 (3-2)
Wk. 4: 24-14 (5-2)
Wk. 5: 21-28 (5-3)
Wk. 6: 26-21 (4-2)
Total: 132-147 (25-9)

Below Average (Points 10, 9)
Ranked: Indy, L-R, Pitt. St., Benedict, Davenport, Slippery Rock, Mo. Western

Wk. 1: 27-14 (8-0)
Wk. 2: 19-22 (5-2)
Wk. 3: 21-19 (6-1)
Wk. 4: 22-20 (7-0)
Wk. 5: 20-21 (6-1)
Wk. 6: 23-18 (7-0)
Total: 132-114 (39-4)

Weak (Points 8, 7, 6, 4)
Ranked: Ouachita Baptist, Harding, Valdosta St.

Wk. 1: 10-6 (2-0)
Wk. 2: 10-7 (2-0)
Wk. 3: 11-6 (2-0)
Wk. 4: 8-9 (2-0)
Wk. 5: 11-7 (2-0)
Wk. 6: 3-14 (2-1)
Total: 53-49 (12-1)

[KleShreen]

Here are the week 6 results using last week’s D2 poll for ranked team W/L.

D2 vs. FCS

Wk. 1: 3-10
Wk. 2: 3-5
Wk. 3: 1-3
Wk. 4: 0-1
Wk. 5: 0-2
Wk. 6: 0-0
Total: 7-21

Good (6-0) / Bad (0-6) Start (No. teams at each point)

+12 pts.: 5 / 2
11-12 pts.: 1 / 8
-11 pts.: 8 / 2

W/L at each early schedule point value (Ranked record)

17 (Tusculum, Colo. Mesa)

Wk. 1: 0-2 (No Ranked)
Wk. 2: 1-1 (N)
Wk. 3: 2-0 (N)
Wk. 4: 1-1 (N)
Wk. 5: 0-2 (N)
Wk. 6: 1-1 (N)
Total: 5-7 (N)

16 (Ferris St., Grand Valley, Central St.)

Wk. 1: 2-1 (Ranked 1-1)
Wk. 2: 2-1 (2-0)
Wk. 3: 1-2 (1-1)
Wk. 4: 0-1 (0-0)
Wk. 5: 2-1 (2-0)
Wk. 6: 2-1 (2-0)
Total: 9-7 (8-2)

15 (13 teams at this point value)

Wk. 1: 4-9 (2-0)
Wk. 2: 7-6 (1-1)
Wk. 3: 7-6 (1-0)
Wk. 4: 5-8 (1-0)
Wk. 5: 7-5 (1-0)
Wk. 6: 3-10 (1-0)
Total: 33-44 (7-1)

14 (14 teams)

Wk. 1: 9-5 (2-1)
Wk. 2: 6-8 (1-2)
Wk. 3: 6-8 (1-1)
Wk. 4: 7-7 (1-1)
Wk. 5: 7-7 (2-0)
Wk. 6: 8-5 (1-0)
Total: 43-40 (8-5)

13 (20 teams)

Wk. 1: 11-8 (4-0)
Wk. 2: 12-7 (2-2)
Wk. 3: 8-12 (2-3)
Wk. 4: 11-7 (3-0)
Wk. 5: 11-8 (3-0)
Wk. 6: 13-7 (3-0)
Total: 66-49 (17-5)

12 (22 teams)

Wk. 1: 10-11 (1-0)
Wk. 2: 10-12 (1-0)
Wk. 3: 9-12 (0-2)
Wk. 4: 11-9 (3-1)
Wk. 5: 11-10 (3-1)
Wk. 6: 13-7 (3-0)
Total: 64-61 (11-4)

11 (29 teams)

Wk. 1: 8-21 (3-0)
Wk. 2: 14-15 (3-0)
Wk. 3: 16-13 (3-0)
Wk. 4: 13-15 (2-1)
Wk. 5: 10-18 (2-2)
Wk. 6: 13-14 (1-2)
Total: 74-96 (14-5)

10 (25 teams)

Wk. 1: 16-8 (6-0)
Wk. 2: 10-14 (3-2)
Wk. 3: 13-11 (5-1)
Wk. 4: 12-13 (5-0)
Wk. 5: 14-10 (4-1)
Wk. 6: 12-12 (4-0)
Total: 77-68 (27-4)

9 (17 teams)

Wk. 1: 11-6 (2-0)
Wk. 2: 9-8 (2-0)
Wk. 3: 8-8 (2-0)
Wk. 4: 10-7 (2-0)
Wk. 5: 6-11 (2-0)
Wk. 6: 11-6 (3-0)
Total: 55-46 (13-0)

8 (12 teams)

Wk. 1: 8-3 (2-0)
Wk. 2: 7-5 (2-0)
Wk. 3: 8-4 (2-0)
Wk. 4: 7-5 (2-0)
Wk. 5: 10-3 (2-0)
Wk. 6: 3-9 (2-0)
Total: 43-29 (12-0)

7 (Clarion, E. New Mexico, Ft. Lewis)

Wk. 1: 2-1 (No Ranked)
Wk. 2: 1-2 (N)
Wk. 3: 1-2 (N)
Wk. 4: 0-3 (N)
Wk. 5: 0-3 (N)
Wk. 6: 0-3 (N)
Total: 4-14

6 (Upper Iowa)

Wk. 1: 0-1 (N)
Wk. 2: 1-0 (N)
Wk. 3: 1-0 (N)
Wk. 4: 0-1 (N)
Wk. 5: 0-1 (N)
Wk. 6: 0-1 (N)
Total: 2-4

4 (Quincy)

Wk. 1: 0-1 (N)
Wk. 2: 1-0 (N)
Wk. 3: 1-0 (N)
Wk. 4: 1-0 (N)
Wk. 5: 1-0 (N)
Wk. 6: 0-1 (N)
Total: 4-2


W/L by point value grouping

Strong (Points 17-15)
Ranked: Ferris St., Grand Valley, Delta St.

Wk. 1: 6-12 (Ranked 3-1)
Wk. 2: 10-8 (3-1)
Wk. 3: 10-8 (2-1)
Wk. 4: 6-10 (1-0)
Wk. 5: 9-8 (3-0)
Wk. 6: 6-12 (3-0)
Total: 47-58 (15-3)

Above Average (Points 14, 13)
Ranked: Angelo St., Shepherd, Colo. Mines, Minn.- Mankato, Truman St,

Wk. 1: 20-13 (6-1)
Wk. 2: 8-15 (3-4)
Wk. 3: 14-20 (3-4)
Wk. 4: 18-13 (4-1)
Wk. 5: 18-15 (5-0)
Wk. 6: 21-12 (4-0)
Totals: 99-89 (25-10)

Average (Points 12, 11)
Ranked: West Fla., Western Colo., Central Mo., Minn.-Duluth, Bemidji St., Emporia St., Va. Union

Wk. 1: 18-32 (4-0)
Wk. 2: 24-27 (4-9)
Wk. 3: 19-25 (3-2)
Wk. 4: 24-14 (5-2)
Wk. 5: 21-28 (5-3)
Wk. 6: 26-21 (4-2)
Total: 132-147 (25-9)

Below Average (Points 10, 9)
Ranked: Indy, L-R, Pitt. St., Benedict, Davenport, Slippery Rock, Mo. Western

Wk. 1: 27-14 (8-0)
Wk. 2: 19-22 (5-2)
Wk. 3: 21-19 (6-1)
Wk. 4: 22-20 (7-0)
Wk. 5: 20-21 (6-1)
Wk. 6: 23-18 (7-9)
Total: 132-114 (39-4)

Weak (Points 8, 7, 6, 4)
Ranked: Ouachita Baptist, Harding, Valdosta St.

Wk. 1: 10-6 (2-0)
Wk. 2: 10-7 (2-0)
Wk. 3: 11-6 (2-0)
Wk. 4: 8-9 (2-0)
Wk. 5: 11-7 (2-0)
Wk. 6: 3-14 (2-1)
Total: 53-49 (12-1)

8-2 overall record from the two ranked teams with the toughest schedule. Nice.

[Argonut]

8-2 overall record from the two ranked teams with the toughest schedule. Nice.

The Dogs and Lakers have successfully negotiated the toughest first third of the season, but no team, including Ferris, has won the title in the last six seasons with an early schedule difficulty value of more than 13.

These two may beat each other up so bad over their two matchups in the regular season and playoffs that they have nothing left against a team with an easier path to the title game.

This playoff season will be very interesting to see if the pattern established over the last six seasons will be followed again or if someone with a tougher early start can break this pattern and hoist the championship trophy.

[KleShreen]

The Dogs and Lakers have successfully negotiated the toughest first third of the season, but no team, including Ferris, has won the title in the last six seasons with an early schedule difficulty value of more than 13.

These two may beat each other up so bad over their two matchups in the regular season and playoffs that they have nothing left against a team with an easier path to the title game.

This playoff season will be very interesting to see if the pattern established over the last six seasons will be followed again or if someone with a tougher early start can break this pattern and hoist the championship trophy.

That seems like it bucks conventional logic. You would think that teams which start off with tough tests get more battle-tested and ready for the playoffs, before the playoffs start. Plus get a little downtime in-between the early season tough schedule and the playoff games. But maybe that's the downfall. Maybe it makes more sense to have a cupcake early schedule and have it gradually ramp up as you go.

[Predatory Primates]

That seems like it bucks conventional logic. You would think that teams which start off with tough tests get more battle-tested and ready for the playoffs, before the playoffs start. Plus get a little downtime in-between the early season tough schedule and the playoff games. But maybe that's the downfall. Maybe it makes more sense to have a cupcake early schedule and have it gradually ramp up as you go.

I think it points more to the idea that determining strength of opponent is really tough in D2 with such limited crossover and such a wide range of skill level that is often not reflected by record.

In short, the data is very subjective,, so objective results are hard to come by.

[Argonut]

Here’s a look at top four winning records in each conference with early season schedule difficulty values for the teams. Teams with easier early schedule (11 and below) sit on top of 9 conferences and 6 teams with harder early schedules (12 and higher) sit on top of their conference. There were two conferences with ties at the top so the top spot went to higher ranked in D2 poll.

GSC

Delta St., 7-0 (15)
Valdosta St., 6-1 (8)
West Fla., 5-2 (12)
West Ga., 4-2 (15)

GLIAC

Davenport, 6-0 (9)
Grand Valley, 5-1 (16)
Ferrris St., 4-2 (16)
Mich. Tech., 4-2 (8)

SIAC

Benedict, 7-0 (10)
Allen, 5-1 (9)
Miles, 5-2 (15)
Tuskegee, 5-2 (10)
Ft. Valley, 5-2 (11)

SAC

L-R, 7-0 (10)
Mars Hill, 5-1 (10)
Barton, 5-2 (14)
Limestone, 4-3 (11)
Tusculum, 4-3 (17)
Wingate, 4-3 (13)
Newberry, 4-3 (10)

MEC

Charleston, 6-0 (12)
Frostburg St., 5-1 (13)
Fairmont St., 5-2 (9)
West Va. St., 4-2 (15)

LSC

UT-Permian, 6-1 (9)
Central Wash., 5-2 (14)
Angelo St., 4-2 (14)
TAM-Kingsville, 4-2 (12)

NE10

Assumption, 5-1 (13)
Bentley, 4-2 (11)
New Haven, 4-3 (11)
St. Anselm, 4-3 (9)

NSIC

Minn.-Mankato, 7-0 (13)
Augustana, 7-0 (8)
Minn.-Duluth, 6-1 (11)
Bemidji St., 5-1 (11)

PSAC

Slippery Rock, 7-0 (9)
East Stroudsburg, 6-1 (11)
Shepherd, 6-1 (14)
Calif. (Pa.), 5-1 (13)

RMAC

Colo. Mines, 7-0 (13)
Western Colo., 7-0 (12)
CSU-Pueblo, 4-3 (13)
Black Hills, 4-3 (12)

GMAC

Tiffin, 7-0 (9)
Findley, 5-1 (11)
Ashland, 4-3 (14)
Thomas More, 4-3 (12)

CIAA

Va. St., 7-0 (13)
Va. Union, 6-1 (11)
Johnson Smith, 5-2 (8)
Fayetteville St., 4-2 (10)

MIAA

Pitt. St., 7-0 (10)
Central Mo., 6-1 (12)
Emporia St., 5-2 (11)
Ft. Hays, 5-2 (13)
Mo. Western, 5-2 (9)

GAC

Harding, 7-0 (8)
Ouachita Baptist, 6-1 (8)
Southern Ark., 6-1 (14)
Henderson St., 5-2 (12)

GLVC

Indy, 6-0 (10)
Truman St., 6-1 (13)
Quincy, 5-2 (4)

[Argonut]

10-16-23 D2 poll with record, early schedule difficulty value and hashtag for teams that meet the early schedule elements of last 6 D2 champions.

At this point in season half of this top 25 had easy (13) early schedules and the other half had hard (12) early schedules using D2 average of 11.38 as dividing line.

Of the unbeaten teams, 8 had easy starts and 5 had hard starts.

1. Colo. Mines,, 7-0 (13)
2. Grand Valley, 5-1 (16)
3. Pittsburgh St., 7-0 (10) #
4. Minn.-Mankato, 7-0 (13) #
5. Ferris St., 4-2 (16)
6. Delta St., 7-0 (15)
7. Harding, 7-0 (8) #
8. Slippery Rock, 7-0 (9) #
9. Bemidji St., 5-1 (11) #
10. Benedict, 7-0 (10) #
11. Lenoir-Rhyne, 7-0 (10) #
12. Indianapolis, 6-0 (10) #
13. West Fla., 5-2 (12) #
14. Western Colo., 7-0 (12)
15. Davenport, 6-0 (9)
16. Ouachita Baptist, 6-1 (8) #
17. Central Mo., 6-1 (12)
18. Angelo St., 4-2 (14)
19. Shepherd, 6-1 (14)
20. Virginia Union, 6-1 (11)
21. Augustana, 7-0 (8) #
22. Truman St., 6-1 (13)
23. Emporia St., 5-2 (11) #
24. Virginia St., 7-0 (13)
25. UT-Permian, 6-1 (9) #

[Argonut]

Here are week 7 W/L results for different early schedule difficulty values along with unbeaten/winless teams at different point values and D2 v FCS record for the season.

Easy start has helped more teams to stay unbeaten through 7 weeks and that will likely drop as the unbeaten start squaring off with each other. Tusculum has turned it around to a winning record after enduring the toughest start to the season.

D2 v. FCS

Wk. 1: 3-10
Wk. 2: 3-5
Wk. 3: 1-3
Wk. 4: 0-1
Wk. 5: 0-2
Wk. 6: 0-0
Wk. 7: 0-0
Total: 7-21

Unbeaten / Winless (No. teams at each value)

+12: 4 / 2
11-12: 2 / 8
-11: 9 / 2

W/L at each early schedule difficulty point value

17 points (Tusculum, Colo. Mesa)

Wk. 1: 0-2 (No ranked team)
Wk. 2: 1-1 (N)
Wk. 3: 2-0 (N)
Wk. 4: 1-1 (N)
Wk. 5: 0-2 (N)
Wk. 6: 1-1 (N)
Wk. 7: 2-0 (N)
Total: 7-7

16 (Ferris St., Grand Valley, Central St.)

Wk. 1: 2-1 (1-1)
Wk. 2: 2-1 (2-0)
Wk. 3: 1-2 (1-1)
Wk. 4: 0-1 (0-0)
Wk. 5: 2-1 (2-0)
Wk. 6: 2-1 (2-0)
Wk. 7: 2-1 (1-1)
Total: 11-8 (9-3)

15 (13 teams)

Wk. 1: 4-9 (2-0)
Wk. 2: 7-6 (1-1)
Wk. 3: 7-6 (1-0)
Wk. 4: 5-8 (1-0)
Wk. 5: 7-5 (1-0)
Wk. 6: 3-10 (1-0)
Wk. 7: 6-6 (1-0)
Total: 39-50 (8-1)

14 (14 teams)

Wk. 1: 9-5 (2-1)
Wk. 2: 6-8 (1-2)
Wk. 3: 6-8 (1-1)
Wk. 4: 7-7 (1-1)
Wk. 5: 7-7 (2-0)
Wk. 6: 8-5 (1-0)
Wk. 7: 7-7 (2-0)
Total: 50-47 (10-5)

13 (20 teams)

Wk. 1: 11-8 (4-0)
Wk. 2: 12-7 (2-2)
Wk. 3: 8-12 (2-3)
Wk. 4: 11-7 (3-0)
Wk. 5: 11-8 (3-0)
Wk. 6: 13-7 (3-0)
Wk. 7: 12-7 (3-1)
Total: 78-56 (20-6)

12 (22 teams)

Wk. 1: 10-11 (1-0)
Wk. 2: 10-12 (1-0)
Wk. 3: 9-12 (0-2)
Wk. 4: 11-9 (3-1)
Wk. 5: 11-10 (3-1)
Wk. 6: 13-7 (3-0)
Wk. 7: 8-14 (2-1)
Total: 72-75 (13-5)

11 (29 teams)

Wk. 1: 8-21 (3-0)
Wk. 2: 14-15 (3-0)
Wk. 3: 16-13 (3-0)
Wk. 4: 13-15 (2-1)
Wk. 5: 10-18 (2-2)
Wk. 6: 13-14 (1-2)
Wk. 7: 15-14 (3-0)
Total: 89-110 (17-5)

10 (25 teams)

Wk. 1: 16-8 (6-0)
Wk. 2: 10-14 (3-2)
Wk. 3: 13-11 (5-1)
Wk. 4: 12-13 (5-0)
Wk. 5: 14-10 (4-1)
Wk. 6: 12-12 (4-0)
Wk. 7: 14-9 (4-0)
Total: 91-77 (31-4)

9 (17 teams)

Wk. 1: 11-6 (2-0)
Wk. 2: 9-8 (2-0)
Wk. 3: 8-8 (2-0)
Wk. 4: 10-7 (2-0)
Wk. 5: 6-11 (2-0)
Wk. 6: 11-6 (3-0)
Wk. 7: 7-9 (2-1)
Total: 62-55 (51-1)

8 (12 teams)

Wk. 1: 8-3 (2-0)
Wk. 2: 7-5 (2-0)
Wk. 3: 8-4 (2-0)
Wk. 4: 7-5 (2-0)
Wk. 5: 10-3 (2-0)
Wk. 6: 3-9 (2-0)
Wk. 7: 6-6 (2-1)
Total: 49-35 (14-1)

7 (Clarion, Ft. Lewis, E. New Mexico)

Wk. 1: 2-1 (No Ranked)
Wk. 2: 1-2 (N)
Wk. 3: 1-2 (N)
Wk. 4: 0-3 (N)
Wk. 5: 0-3 (N)
Wk. 6: 0-3 (N)
Wk. 7: 0-3 (N)
Total: 4-17

6 (Upper Iowa)

Wk. 1: 0-1 (N)
Wk. 2: 1-0 (N)
Wk. 3: 1-0 (N)
Wk. 4: 0-1 (N)
Wk. 5: 0-1 (N)
Wk. 6: 0-1 (N)
Wk. 7: 0-1 (N)
Total: 2-5

4 (Quincy)

Wk. 1: 0-1 (N)
Wk. 2: 1-0 (N)
Wk. 3: 1-0 (N)
Wk. 4: 1-0 (N)
Wk. 5: 1-0 (N)
Wk. 6: 0-1 (N)
Wk. 7: 1-0 (N)
Total: 5-2


W/L by point value groups

Strong Schedule (Points 17, 16, 15) (17 teams)
Ranked teams: Ferris St., Grand Valley, Delta St.

Wk. 1: 8-12 (Ranked 3-1)
Wk. 2: 10–8 (3-1)
Wk. 3: 10-8 (2-1)
Wk. 4: 6-10 (1-0)
Wk. 5: 9-8 (3-0)
Wk. 6: 6-12 (3-0)
Wk. 7: 10-7 (2-1)
Total: 57-65 (17-4)

Above Average (Points 14, 13) (34 teams)
Ranked: Angelo St., Truman St., Shepherd, Va. St., Colo. Mines, Minn.-Mankato

Wk. 1: 20-13 (6-1)
Wk. 2: 8-15 (3-4)
Wk. 3: 14-20 (3-4)
Wk. 4: 18-13 (4-1)
Wk. 5: 18-15 (5-0)
Wk. 6: 21-12 (4-0)
Wk. 7: 19-14 (5-1)
Total: 118-103 (30-11)

Average (Points 12, 11) (51 teams)
Ranked: West Fla., Central Mo., Bemidji St., Virginia Union, Emporia St., Western Colo.

Wk. 1: 18-32 (4-0)
Wk. 2: 24-27 (4-0)
Wk. 3: 19-25 (3-2)
Wk. 4: 24-14 (5-2)
Wk. 5: 21-28 (5-3)
Wk. 6: 26-21 (4-2)
Wk. 7: 23-28 (5-1)
Totals: 155-175 (30-10)

Below Average (Points 10, 9) (42 teams)
Ranked: Indy, Pitt. St., L-R, Benedict, Davenport, Slippery Rock, Mo. Western

Wk. 1: 27-14 (8-0)
Wk. 2: 19-22 (5-2)
Wk. 3: 21-19 (6-1)
Wk. 4: 22-20 (7-0)
Wk. 5: 20-21 (6-1)
Wk. 6: 23-18 (7-0)
Wk. 7: 21-18 (6-1)
Total: 153-132 (45-5)

Weak (Points 8, 7, 6, 4) (17 teams)
Ranked: Augustana, Harding, Ouachita Baptist

Wk. 1: 10-6 (2-0)
Wk. 2: 10-7 (2-0)
Wk. 3: 11-6 (2-0)
Wk. 4: 8-9 (2-0)
Wk. 5: 11-7 (2-0)
Wk. 6: 3-14 (2-1)
Wk. 7: 7-10 (2-1)
Totals: 60-59 (14-2)

[Argonut]

After week 8 there are 24 teams with a winning record that started the season with an above average early schedule difficulty of more than a 12 point value.

There are 44 teams with a winning record that started the season with an average or below early schedule difficulty of 12 or lower point value.

According to these numbers you double your chances of a winning season with an easier start.

[Argonut]

10-23-23 D2 poll with record, early schedule difficulty value and hashtag for teams that match early schedule elements of last 6 D2 champions. This poll shows a clear proliferation and ascension of hashtags towards the top 15.

In this poll 20 of 25 have early schedule values of 13 or less, which matches last 6 D2 champions and 14 of 25 have the matching hashtag that denotes similar early schedule values and early season performance of teams that match last 6 D2 champions.

Looking at the distribution of easy, average and hard starts to season in this poll you can clearly see that there are more teams present that had easy starts to their season. Scheduling your first three games as a sort of preseason tuneup before conference play appears to be the predominant method used by most of the top 25 here.

Only 3 teams in top 10 had a hard start to their season and of the 11 undefeated teams in this poll, 1 had a hard start (Mines), 1 had an average start (Western Colo.) and the other 9 had an easy start to season.

Hard start (+12): 8
Average start (11-12): 5
Easy start (-11): 12

1. Colo. Mines, 8-0 (13)
2. Grand Valley, 6-1 (16)
3. Pittsburg St., 8-0 (10) #
4. Ferris St., 5-2 (16)
5. Harding, 8-0 (8) #
6. Slippery Rock, 8-0 (9) #
7. Lenoir-Rhyne, 8-0 (10) #
8. West Fla., 6-2 (12) #
9. Benedict, 8-0 (10) #
10. Augustana, 8-0 (8) #
11. Central Missouri, 7-1 (12)
12. Bemidji St., 6-1 (11) #
13. Western Colo., 8-0 (12)
14. Indianapolis, 7-0 (10) #
15. Minn.-Mankato, 7-1 (13) #
16. Delta St., 7-1 (15)
17. Davenport, 7-0 (9)
18. Ouachita Baptist, 7-1 (8) #
19. UT-Permian, 7-1 (9) #
20. Va. Union, 7-1 (11)
21. Shepherd, 7-1 (14)
22. Truman St., 7-1 (13)
23. Tiffin, 8-0 (9) #
24. Valdosta St., 7-1 (8) #
25. Central Wash., 6-2 (14)

[Argonut]

Here are the week 8 W/L at each point value, grouping of strong to weak point values, D2 v. FCS and number of teams that are unbeaten v winless at each point value. It’s very clear at week 8 that to be unbeaten it pays to have a weak start to the season.

D2 v FCS

Wk. 1: 3-10
Wk. 2: 3-5
Wk. 3: 1-3
Wk. 4: 0-1
Wk. 5: 0-2
Wk. 6: 0-0
Wk. 7: 0-0
Wk. 8: 0-0
Total: 7-21

Unbeaten / Winless at each point category

+12: 1 / 2
11-12: 1 / 8
-11: 9 / 1

W/L at each point value

17 (Tusculum, Colo. Mesa)

Wk. 1: 0-2 (No ranked teams)
Wk. 2: 1-1
Wk. 3: 2-0
Wk. 4: 1-1
Wk. 5: 0-2
Wk. 6: 1-1
Wk. 7: 2-0
Wk. 8: 1-1
Total: 8-8 (N)

16 (Ferris St., Grand Valley, Central St.)

Wk. 1: 2-1 (Ranked record 1-1)
Wk. 2: 2-1 (2-0)
Wk. 3: 1-2 (1-1)
Wk. 4: 0-1 (0-0)
Wk. 5: 2-1 (2-0)
Wk. 6: 2-1 (2-0)
Wk. 7: 2-1 (1-1)
Wk. 8: 3-0 (2-0)
Total: 14-8 (11-3)

15 (13 teams)

Wk. 1: 4-9 (2-0)
Wk. 2: 7-6 (1-1)
Wk. 3: 7-6 (1-0)
Wk. 4: 5-8 (1-0)
Wk. 5: 7-5 (1-0)
Wk. 6: 3-10 (1-0)
Wk. 7: 6-6 (1-0)
Wk. 8: 5-7 (0-1)
Total: 44-57 (8-2)

14 (14 teams)

Wk. 1: 9-5 (2-1)
Wk. 2: 6-8 (1-2)
Wk. 3: 6-8 (1-1)
Wk. 4: 7-7 (1-1)
Wk. 5: 7-7 (2-0)
Wk. 6: 8-5 (1-0)
Wk. 7: 7-7 (2-0)
Wk. 8: 8-6 (1-1)
Total: 58-53 (11-6)

13 (20 teams)

Wk. 1: 11-8 (4-0)
Wk. 2: 12-7 (2-2)
Wk. 3: 8-12 (2-3)
Wk. 4: 11-7 (3-0)
Wk. 5: 11-8 (3-0)
Wk. 6: 13-7 (3-0)
Wk. 7: 12-7 (3-1)
Wk. 8: 10-10 (2-2)
Total: 88-66 (22-8)

12 (22 teams)

Wk. 1: 10-11 (1-0)
Wk. 2: 10-12 (1-0)
Wk. 3: 9-12 (0-2)
Wk. 4: 11-9 (3-1)
Wk. 5: 11-10 (3-1)
Wk. 6: 13-7 (3-0)
Wk. 7: 8-14 (2-1)
Wk. 8: 11-11 (3-0)
Total: 83-86 (16-5)

11 (29 teams)

Wk. 1: 8-21 (3-0)
Wk. 2: 14-15 (3-0)
Wk. 3: 16-13 (3-0)
Wk. 4: 13-15 (2-1)
Wk. 5: 10-18 (2-2)
Wk. 6: 13-14 (1-2)
Wk. 7: 15-14 (3-0)
Wk. 8: 14-14 (2-1)
Total: 103-124 (19-6)

10 (25 teams)

Wk. 1: 16-8 (6-0)
Wk. 2: 10-14 (3-2)
Wk. 3: 13-11 (5-1)
Wk. 4: 12-13 (5-0)
Wk. 5: 14-10 (4-1)
Wk. 6: 12-12 (4-0)
Wk. 7: 14-9 (4-0)
Wk. 8: 10-15 (4-0)
Total: 101-92 (35-4)

9 (17 teams)

Wk. 1: 11-6 (2-0)
Wk. 2: 9-8 (2-0)
Wk. 3: 8-8 (2-0)
Wk. 4: 10-7 (2-0)
Wk. 5: 6-11 (2-0)
Wk. 6: 11-6 (3-0)
Wk. 7: 7-9 (2-1)
Wk. 8: 8-7 (3-0)
Total: 70-62 (54-1)

8 (12 teams)

Wk. 1: 8-3 (2-0)
Wk. 2: 7-5 (2-0)
Wk. 3: 8-4 (2-0)
Wk. 4: 7-5 (2-0)
Wk. 5: 10-3 (2-0)
Wk. 6: 3-9 (2-0)
Wk. 7: 6-6 (2-1)
Wk. 8: 6-6 (3-0)
Total: 55-41 (17-1)

7 (Clarion, Ft. Lewis, E. New Mexico)

Wk. 1: 2-1 (N)
Wk. 2: 1-2
Wk. 3: 1-2
Wk. 4: 0-3
Wk. 5: 0-3
Wk. 6: 0-3
Wk. 7: 0-3
Wk. 8: 1-2
Total: 5-19

6 (Upper Iowa)

Wk. 1: 0-1 (N)
Wk. 2: 1-0
Wk. 3: 1-0
Wk. 4: 0-1
Wk. 5: 0-1
Wk. 6: 0-1
Wk. 7: 0-1
Wk. 8: 1-0
Total: 3-5

4 (Quincy)

Wk. 1: 0-1 (N)
Wk. 2: 1-0
Wk. 3: 1-0
Wk. 4: 1-0
Wk. 5: 1-0
Wk. 6: 0-1
Wk. 7: 1-0
Wk. 8: 0-1
Total: 5-3

W/L by group

Strong Start (Points 17, 16, 15) (17 teams)
Ranked: Ferris St., Grand Valley, Delta St.

Wk. 1: 8-12 (3-1)
Wk. 2: 10-8 (3-1)
Wk. 3: 10-8 (2-1)
Wk. 4: 6-10 (1-0)
Wk. 5: 9-8 (3-0)
Wk. 6: 6-12 (3-0)
Wk. 7: 10-7 (2-1)
Wk. 8: 9-8 (2-1)
Total: 66-73 (19-5)

Above Average Start (Points 14, 13) (34 teams)
Ranked: Angelo St., Shepherd, Minn.-Mankato, Colo. Mines, Va. St., Truman St.

Wk. 1: 20-13 (6-1)
Wk. 2: 8-15 (3-4)
Wk. 3: 14-20 (3-4)
Wk. 4: 18-13 (4-1)
Wk. 5: 18-15 (5-0)
Wk. 6: 21-12 (4-0)
Wk. 7: 19-14 (5-1)
Wk. 8: 18-16 (3-3)
Total: 136-119 (33-14)

Average Start (Points 12, 11) (51 teams)
Ranked: West Fla., Central Mo., Western Colo., Va. Union, Bemidji St., Emporia St.

Wk. 1: 18-32 (4-0)
Wk. 2: 24-27 (4-0)
Wk. 3: 19-25 (3-2)
Wk. 4: 24-14 (5-2)
Wk. 5: 21-28 (5-3)
Wk. 6: 26-21 (4-2)
Wk. 7: 23-28 (5-1)
Wk. 8: 25-25 (5-1)
Total: 180-200 (35-11)

Below Average Start (Points 10, 9) (42 teams)
Ranked: Indy, Pitt. St., L-R, Benedict, Davenport, UT- Permian, Slippery Rock

Wk. 1: 27-14 (8-0)
Wk. 2: 19-22 (5-2)
Wk. 3: 21-19 (6-1)
Wk. 4: 22-20 (7-0)
Wk. 5: 20-21 (6-1)
Wk. 6: 23-18 (7-0)
Wk. 7: 21-18 (6-1)
Wk. 8: 18-22 (7-0)
Total: 171-154 (52-5)

Weak Start (Points 8, 7, 6, 4) (17 teams)
Ranked: Augustana, Harding, Ouachita Baptist

Wk. 1: 10-6 (2-0)
Wk. 2: 10-7 (2-0)
Wk. 3: 11-6 (2-0)
Wk. 4: 8-9 (2-0)
Wk. 5: 11-7 (2-0)
Wk. 6: 3-14 (2-1)
Wk. 7: 7-10 (2-1)
Wk. 8: 8-9 (3-0)
Total: 68-68 (17-2)