Since KleShreen provided Grand Valley’s first three games of 2024 schedule I decided to start this thread for 2024 using the Lakers as the first calculation and to recap the point values and results from 2023 for those who didn’t follow my research project last year.
I came up with the point values below after a GSC fan boasted about his team having the toughest opening schedule. After applying the point values below to the GSC there was a four way tie at the top. I then calculated all the D2 teams using their opponents record from the year before to calculate the difficulty of the first three games (conference and/or OOC) since that is when you get the widest variety of opponents. After the regular season I recalculated the playoff teams values based on the 2023 season results.
I collected data on the 2023 season and the 2016-2023 playoff fields and discovered some surprising results. The 2023 D2 average difficulty value was 11.38, the 2016-2023 playoff field average was 11.09 and the average of the last 7 D2 champions was 10.71. The champions were scheduling easier, not harder in the first three games and playoff teams with lower (easier) point values won more playoff games over higher point value teams the deeper they went in playoffs and nearly all the title games.
These results suggest that an easier early schedule helps a team make and go deeper in the playoffs because they are not so beat up and/or injured earlier in the year in a long season with usually only one bye week. This data is even more relevant and important now that D2 has approved a 0 week game for 2024.
The most surprising result was that all of the last 7 D2 champions had a difficulty value of 13 and below and they all were mud stomping at least two of their first three opponents. All but one of the champions started 3-0. (2019 West Florida started 2-1)
As for the first calculation of 2024, Grand Valley hosts Central State (5-5) in the opener for 3 points, goes to Pueblo (8-3) in week two for 4 points plus 1 for the road game and hosts D3 UW-Lacrosse for 1 point in week 3. That gives them a total point value of 9, which is the same number as the last 2 D2 champions. I think there is also a good chance they will blow out at least two of these opponents and that would make them potential contenders for the 2024 D2 crown given the results of the last seven years.
Note: Grand Valley had a high (hard) point value of 16 in 2023 and lost a one point regional playoff game to Harding after two close wins in the first two rounds. I recall fans of GV talking about dealing with multiple key players being out due to injuries on their playoff run last year. Their drastic drop to a 9 in 2024 may be a recognition of the data I collected last year to improve their chances of a deeper playoff run in 2024, especially considering their week 4 game at home vs. West Florida.
I will add teams as the first three games become available.
Early Schedule Difficulty Point Values
1- Road game adds additional point.
1- NAIA, D3, etc. opponent.
2- Weak under .500 opponent.
3- .500, more or less (4-6 to 6-4) opponent.
4- Strong +.500 opponent.
5- D2 playoff team.
6- FCS opponent.
7- Ranked FCS opponent.
2024 D2 Cumulative Early Schedule Average: TBD
2024 D2 Conference Ranking by Average:
MIAA: 12.10
GLVC: 11.33
GAC: 11.00
MEC: 10.60
SAC: 10.38
GSC: 10.37
RMAC: 10.30
2023 / 2024 Regular Season Team Point Values
(First number is 2023 point value / Second is 2024 / # indicates unlikely to win title in 2024 due to high point value-hard start)
CIAA
(14 / 13) Bowie State
(10 /12) Fayetteville State
(8 / 11) Johnson Smith
(11 / 9) Lincoln (Pa.)
(14 / 10) Shaw
(13 / 15) Virginia State #
(11 / 15) Virginia Union #
(14 / 14) Winston- Salem #
GAC (11.00)
(10 / 10) Arkansas Monticello
(10 / 13) Arkansas Tech.
(11 / 12) East Central
(8 / 10) Harding
(12 / 9) Henderson State
(11 / 11) NW Oklahoma
(11 / 13) Oklahoma Baptist
(8 / 10) Ouachita Baptist
(14 / 10) Southern Arkansas
(11 / 11) Southern Nazarene
(11 / 13) SE Oklahoma
(12 / 10) SW Oklahoma
GLIAC
(16 / 12) Ferris State
(16 / 9) Grand Valley
(8 / 12) Michigan Tech
(8 / 9) Northern Michigan
(12 / 12) Saginaw Valley
(14 / 15) Wayne State (Mich.) #
GLVC (11.33)
(10 / 11) Indy
(12 / 9) Lincoln (Mo.)
(12 / 13) McKendree
(11 / 13) Missouri S and T
(9 / 7) SW Baptist
(13 / 14) Truman State #
(6 / 13) Upper Iowa
(4 / 13) Quincy
(10 / 9) William Jewell
GMAC
(14 / 13) Ashland
(11 / 10) Findlay
(15 / 13) Hillsdale
(11 / 7) Kentucky Wesleyan
(9 / 13) Lake Erie
(12 / 13) Northwood
(12 / 8) Thomas More
GSC (10.37)
(11 / 8) Chowan
(15 / 12) Delta State
(11 / 9) Erskine
(10 / 10) Mississippi College
(15 / 10) North Greenville
(8 / 10) Valdosta State (Blazers went deepest in PO of GSC teams in 2023 and had lowest point value)
(15 / 12) West Alabama
(12 / 12) West Florida
LSC
(14 / 13) Angelo State
(14 / 14) Central Washington
(12 / 12) Texas A & M Kingsville
(12 / 18) Western Oregon #
(Highest point value ever due to 3 road games to open season with first two against FCS teams-most brutal start I have seen)
(10 / 15) West Texas A&M #
(Given their 3-7 record last year and their hard start of 15 you can exclude WTAM from list of potential champions in 2024)
(9 / 9) UT Permian
(7 / 9) E. New Mexico
MEC (10.60)
(12 / 11) Charleston
(11 / 9) Concord
(9 / 9) Fairmont State
(13 / 8) Frostburg State
(13 / 12) Glenville State
(12 / 13) West Virginia Wesleyan
(9 / 8) Wheeling
(13 / 15) UNC Pembroke #
(10 / 11) West Liberty
(15 / 10) West Virginia State
MIAA (12.10)
(12 / 11) Central Missouri
(10 / 9) Central Oklahoma
(11 / 12) Emporia State
(13 / 13) Ft. Hays State
(15 / 14) Missouri Southern #
(9 / 11) Missouri Western
(10 / 12) NW Mo. St.
(8 / 11) Nebraska-Kearney
(10 / 13) Pittsburg State
(11 / 15) Washburn #
NE10
(13 / 11) Assumption
(11 / 12) New Haven
(9 / 13) Pace
(9 / 13) St. Anselm
NSIC
(8 / 14) Augustana #
(11 / 11) Bemidji State
(12 / 9) Concordia St. Paul
(11 / 10) Minn.-Duluth
(13 / 15) Minn.-Mankato #
(10 / 13) Minn.-Moorhead
(10 / 7) Minot State
(12 / 13) Northern State
(13 / 13) Sioux Falls
(14 / 10) SW Minn. State
(10 / 12) Wayne State (Neb.)
(13 / 10) Winona State
PSAC
(9 / 10) Bloomsburg
(13 / 14) California (PA) #
(7 / 12) Clarion
(13 / 18) Edinboro #
(12 / 14) Gannon #
(10 / 12) IUP
(12 / 9) Kutztown
(8 / 11) Lock Haven
(14 / 10) Millersville
(11 / 10) Seton Hill
(14 / 11) Shepherd
(13 / 10) Shippensburg
(9 / 14) Slippery Rock #
(15 / 10) Westchester
RMAC (10.30)
(12 / 14) Adams St. #
(12 / 11) Black Hills
(17 / 14) Colorado Mesa #
(13 / 9) Colo. Mines
(11 / 8) Chadron State
(13 / 14) CSU-Pueblo #
(7 / 7) Ft. Lewis
(9 / 10) New Mexico Highlands
(8 / 8) SD Mines
(12 / 8) Western Colorado
SAC (10.38)
(- / 7) Anderson
(14 / 10) Barton
(14 / 9) Carson Newman
(10 / 13) Catawba
(14 / 8) Emory Henry
(10 / 13) L-R
(11 / 11) Limestone
(10 / 15) Mars Hill #
(10 / 10) Newberry
(17 / 12) Tusculum
(9 / 13) UVA Wise
(13 / 14) Wingate #
SIAC
(11 / 12) Albany State
(9 / 7) Allen
(10 / 9) Benedict
(11 / 11) Clark Atlanta
(12 / 15) Edward Waters #
(11 / 10) Ft. Valley State
(9 / 17) Kentucky State #
(15 / 18) Lane #
(15 / 13) Miles
(10 / 15) Savannah State #
(10 / 13) Tuskegee
I came up with the point values below after a GSC fan boasted about his team having the toughest opening schedule. After applying the point values below to the GSC there was a four way tie at the top. I then calculated all the D2 teams using their opponents record from the year before to calculate the difficulty of the first three games (conference and/or OOC) since that is when you get the widest variety of opponents. After the regular season I recalculated the playoff teams values based on the 2023 season results.
I collected data on the 2023 season and the 2016-2023 playoff fields and discovered some surprising results. The 2023 D2 average difficulty value was 11.38, the 2016-2023 playoff field average was 11.09 and the average of the last 7 D2 champions was 10.71. The champions were scheduling easier, not harder in the first three games and playoff teams with lower (easier) point values won more playoff games over higher point value teams the deeper they went in playoffs and nearly all the title games.
These results suggest that an easier early schedule helps a team make and go deeper in the playoffs because they are not so beat up and/or injured earlier in the year in a long season with usually only one bye week. This data is even more relevant and important now that D2 has approved a 0 week game for 2024.
The most surprising result was that all of the last 7 D2 champions had a difficulty value of 13 and below and they all were mud stomping at least two of their first three opponents. All but one of the champions started 3-0. (2019 West Florida started 2-1)
As for the first calculation of 2024, Grand Valley hosts Central State (5-5) in the opener for 3 points, goes to Pueblo (8-3) in week two for 4 points plus 1 for the road game and hosts D3 UW-Lacrosse for 1 point in week 3. That gives them a total point value of 9, which is the same number as the last 2 D2 champions. I think there is also a good chance they will blow out at least two of these opponents and that would make them potential contenders for the 2024 D2 crown given the results of the last seven years.
Note: Grand Valley had a high (hard) point value of 16 in 2023 and lost a one point regional playoff game to Harding after two close wins in the first two rounds. I recall fans of GV talking about dealing with multiple key players being out due to injuries on their playoff run last year. Their drastic drop to a 9 in 2024 may be a recognition of the data I collected last year to improve their chances of a deeper playoff run in 2024, especially considering their week 4 game at home vs. West Florida.
I will add teams as the first three games become available.
Early Schedule Difficulty Point Values
1- Road game adds additional point.
1- NAIA, D3, etc. opponent.
2- Weak under .500 opponent.
3- .500, more or less (4-6 to 6-4) opponent.
4- Strong +.500 opponent.
5- D2 playoff team.
6- FCS opponent.
7- Ranked FCS opponent.
2024 D2 Cumulative Early Schedule Average: TBD
2024 D2 Conference Ranking by Average:
MIAA: 12.10
GLVC: 11.33
GAC: 11.00
MEC: 10.60
SAC: 10.38
GSC: 10.37
RMAC: 10.30
2023 / 2024 Regular Season Team Point Values
(First number is 2023 point value / Second is 2024 / # indicates unlikely to win title in 2024 due to high point value-hard start)
CIAA
(14 / 13) Bowie State
(10 /12) Fayetteville State
(8 / 11) Johnson Smith
(11 / 9) Lincoln (Pa.)
(14 / 10) Shaw
(13 / 15) Virginia State #
(11 / 15) Virginia Union #
(14 / 14) Winston- Salem #
GAC (11.00)
(10 / 10) Arkansas Monticello
(10 / 13) Arkansas Tech.
(11 / 12) East Central
(8 / 10) Harding
(12 / 9) Henderson State
(11 / 11) NW Oklahoma
(11 / 13) Oklahoma Baptist
(8 / 10) Ouachita Baptist
(14 / 10) Southern Arkansas
(11 / 11) Southern Nazarene
(11 / 13) SE Oklahoma
(12 / 10) SW Oklahoma
GLIAC
(16 / 12) Ferris State
(16 / 9) Grand Valley
(8 / 12) Michigan Tech
(8 / 9) Northern Michigan
(12 / 12) Saginaw Valley
(14 / 15) Wayne State (Mich.) #
GLVC (11.33)
(10 / 11) Indy
(12 / 9) Lincoln (Mo.)
(12 / 13) McKendree
(11 / 13) Missouri S and T
(9 / 7) SW Baptist
(13 / 14) Truman State #
(6 / 13) Upper Iowa
(4 / 13) Quincy
(10 / 9) William Jewell
GMAC
(14 / 13) Ashland
(11 / 10) Findlay
(15 / 13) Hillsdale
(11 / 7) Kentucky Wesleyan
(9 / 13) Lake Erie
(12 / 13) Northwood
(12 / 8) Thomas More
GSC (10.37)
(11 / 8) Chowan
(15 / 12) Delta State
(11 / 9) Erskine
(10 / 10) Mississippi College
(15 / 10) North Greenville
(8 / 10) Valdosta State (Blazers went deepest in PO of GSC teams in 2023 and had lowest point value)
(15 / 12) West Alabama
(12 / 12) West Florida
LSC
(14 / 13) Angelo State
(14 / 14) Central Washington
(12 / 12) Texas A & M Kingsville
(12 / 18) Western Oregon #
(Highest point value ever due to 3 road games to open season with first two against FCS teams-most brutal start I have seen)
(10 / 15) West Texas A&M #
(Given their 3-7 record last year and their hard start of 15 you can exclude WTAM from list of potential champions in 2024)
(9 / 9) UT Permian
(7 / 9) E. New Mexico
MEC (10.60)
(12 / 11) Charleston
(11 / 9) Concord
(9 / 9) Fairmont State
(13 / 8) Frostburg State
(13 / 12) Glenville State
(12 / 13) West Virginia Wesleyan
(9 / 8) Wheeling
(13 / 15) UNC Pembroke #
(10 / 11) West Liberty
(15 / 10) West Virginia State
MIAA (12.10)
(12 / 11) Central Missouri
(10 / 9) Central Oklahoma
(11 / 12) Emporia State
(13 / 13) Ft. Hays State
(15 / 14) Missouri Southern #
(9 / 11) Missouri Western
(10 / 12) NW Mo. St.
(8 / 11) Nebraska-Kearney
(10 / 13) Pittsburg State
(11 / 15) Washburn #
NE10
(13 / 11) Assumption
(11 / 12) New Haven
(9 / 13) Pace
(9 / 13) St. Anselm
NSIC
(8 / 14) Augustana #
(11 / 11) Bemidji State
(12 / 9) Concordia St. Paul
(11 / 10) Minn.-Duluth
(13 / 15) Minn.-Mankato #
(10 / 13) Minn.-Moorhead
(10 / 7) Minot State
(12 / 13) Northern State
(13 / 13) Sioux Falls
(14 / 10) SW Minn. State
(10 / 12) Wayne State (Neb.)
(13 / 10) Winona State
PSAC
(9 / 10) Bloomsburg
(13 / 14) California (PA) #
(7 / 12) Clarion
(13 / 18) Edinboro #
(12 / 14) Gannon #
(10 / 12) IUP
(12 / 9) Kutztown
(8 / 11) Lock Haven
(14 / 10) Millersville
(11 / 10) Seton Hill
(14 / 11) Shepherd
(13 / 10) Shippensburg
(9 / 14) Slippery Rock #
(15 / 10) Westchester
RMAC (10.30)
(12 / 14) Adams St. #
(12 / 11) Black Hills
(17 / 14) Colorado Mesa #
(13 / 9) Colo. Mines
(11 / 8) Chadron State
(13 / 14) CSU-Pueblo #
(7 / 7) Ft. Lewis
(9 / 10) New Mexico Highlands
(8 / 8) SD Mines
(12 / 8) Western Colorado
SAC (10.38)
(- / 7) Anderson
(14 / 10) Barton
(14 / 9) Carson Newman
(10 / 13) Catawba
(14 / 8) Emory Henry
(10 / 13) L-R
(11 / 11) Limestone
(10 / 15) Mars Hill #
(10 / 10) Newberry
(17 / 12) Tusculum
(9 / 13) UVA Wise
(13 / 14) Wingate #
SIAC
(11 / 12) Albany State
(9 / 7) Allen
(10 / 9) Benedict
(11 / 11) Clark Atlanta
(12 / 15) Edward Waters #
(11 / 10) Ft. Valley State
(9 / 17) Kentucky State #
(15 / 18) Lane #
(15 / 13) Miles
(10 / 15) Savannah State #
(10 / 13) Tuskegee
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