2024 Early Schedule Difficulty

[Argonut]

Since KleShreen provided Grand Valley’s first three games of 2024 schedule I decided to start this thread for 2024 using the Lakers as the first calculation and to recap the point values and results from 2023 for those who didn’t follow my research project last year.

I came up with the point values below after a GSC fan boasted about his team having the toughest opening schedule. After applying the point values below to the GSC there was a four way tie at the top. I then calculated all the D2 teams using their opponents record from the year before to calculate the difficulty of the first three games (conference and/or OOC) since that is when you get the widest variety of opponents. After the regular season I recalculated the playoff teams values based on the 2023 season results.

I collected data on the 2023 season and the 2016-2023 playoff fields and discovered some surprising results. The 2023 D2 average difficulty value was 11.38, the 2016-2023 playoff field average was 11.09 and the average of the last 7 D2 champions was 10.71. The champions were scheduling easier, not harder in the first three games and playoff teams with lower (easier) point values won more playoff games over higher point value teams the deeper they went in playoffs and nearly all the title games.

These results suggest that an easier early schedule helps a team make and go deeper in the playoffs because they are not so beat up and/or injured earlier in the year in a long season with usually only one bye week. This data is even more relevant and important now that D2 has approved a 0 week game for 2024.

The most surprising result was that all of the last 7 D2 champions had a difficulty value of 13 and below and they all were mud stomping at least two of their first three opponents. All but one of the champions started 3-0. (2019 West Florida started 2-1)

As for the first calculation of 2024, Grand Valley hosts Central State (5-5) in the opener for 3 points, goes to Pueblo (8-3) in week two for 4 points plus 1 for the road game and hosts D3 UW-Lacrosse for 1 point in week 3. That gives them a total point value of 9, which is the same number as the last 2 D2 champions. I think there is also a good chance they will blow out at least two of these opponents and that would make them potential contenders for the 2024 D2 crown given the results of the last seven years.

Note: Grand Valley had a high (hard) point value of 16 in 2023 and lost a one point regional playoff game to Harding after two close wins in the first two rounds. I recall fans of GV talking about dealing with multiple key players being out due to injuries on their playoff run last year. Their drastic drop to a 9 in 2024 may be a recognition of the data I collected last year to improve their chances of a deeper playoff run in 2024, especially considering their week 4 game at home vs. West Florida.

I will add teams as the first three games become available.

Early Schedule Difficulty Point Values

1- Road game adds additional point.
1- NAIA, D3, etc. opponent.
2- Weak under .500 opponent.
3- .500, more or less (4-6 to 6-4) opponent.
4- Strong +.500 opponent.
5- D2 playoff team.
6- FCS opponent.
7- Ranked FCS opponent.

2024 D2 Cumulative Early Schedule Average: TBD

2024 D2 Conference Ranking by Average:

MEC: 10.60



2023 / 2024 Regular Season Team Point Values

(First number is 2023 point value / Second is 2024 / # indicates unlikely to win title in 2024 due to high point value-hard start)


CIAA

(14 / 13) Bowie State

(10 /12) Fayetteville State

(8 / 11) Johnson Smith

(11 / 9) Lincoln (Pa.)

(14 / 10) Shaw

(13 / 15) Virginia State #

(11 / 15) Virginia Union #

(14 / 14) Winston- Salem #

GAC

(10 / 10) Arkansas Monticello

(10 / 13) Arkansas Tech.

(8 / 10) Harding

(12 / 9) Henderson State

(11 / 11) NW Oklahoma

(11 / 13) Oklahoma Baptist

(14 / 10) Southern Arkansas

(11 / 11) Southern Nazarene

(11 / 13) SE Oklahoma

(12 / 10) SW Oklahoma

GLIAC

(16 / 12) Ferris State

(16 / 9) Grand Valley

(8 / 12) Michigan Tech

(8 / 9) Northern Michigan

(12 / 12) Saginaw Valley

(14 / 15) Wayne State (Mich.) #

GLVC

(10 / 11) Indy

(12 / 9) Lincoln (Mo.)

(12 / 13) McKendree

(11 / 13) Missouri S and T

(9 / 7) SW Baptist

(13 / 14) Truman State #

(4 / 13) Quincy

(10 / 9) William Jewell

GMAC

(14 / 13) Ashland

(11 / 10) Findlay

(15 / 13) Hillsdale

(11 / 7) Kentucky Wesleyan

(9 / 13) Lake Erie

(12 / 13) Northwood

(12 / 8) Thomas More

GSC

(11 / 8) Chowan

(15 / 12) Delta State

(10 / 10) Mississippi College

(15 / 10) North Greenville

(8 / 10) Valdosta State (Blazers went deepest in PO of GSC teams in 2023 and had lowest point value)

(15 / 12) West Alabama

(12 / 12) West Florida

LSC

(14 / 13) Angelo State

(12 / 12) Texas A & M Kingsville

(12 / 18) Western Oregon #
(Highest point value ever due to 3 road games to open season with first two against FCS teams-most brutal start I have seen)

(10 / 15) West Texas A&M #
(Given their 3-7 record last year and their hard start of 15 you can exclude WTAM from list of potential champions in 2024)

(9 / 9) UT Permian

(7 / 9) E. New Mexico

MEC (10.60)

(12 / 11) Charleston

(11 / 9) Concord

(9 / 9) Fairmont State

(13 / 8) Frostburg State

(13 / 12) Glenville State

(12 / 13) West Virginia Wesleyan

(9 / 8) Wheeling

(13 / 15) UNC Pembroke #

(10 / 11) West Liberty

(15 / 10) West Virginia State

MIAA

(10 / 9) Central Oklahoma

(11 / 12) Emporia State

(13 / 13) Ft. Hays State

(15 / 14) Missouri Southern #

(9 / 11) Missouri Western

(10 / 12) NW Mo. St.

(8 / 11) Nebraska-Kearney

(10 / 13) Pittsburg State

(11 / 15) Washburn #

NE10

(13 / 11) Assumption

(11 / 12) New Haven

(9 / 13) Pace

(9 / 13) St. Anselm

NSIC

(8 / 14) Augustana #

(12 / 9) Concordia St. Paul

(11 / 10) Minn.-Duluth

(13 / 15) Minn.-Mankato #

(10 / 13) Minn.-Moorhead

(10 / 7) Minot State

(12 / 13) Northern State

(13 / 13) Sioux Falls

(14 / 10) SW Minn. State

(10 / 12) Wayne State (Neb.)

(13 / 10) Winona State

PSAC

(9 / 10) Bloomsburg

(7 / 12) Clarion

(10 / 12) IUP

(12 / 9) Kutztown

(8 / 11) Lock Haven

(14 / 10) Millersville

(11 / 10) Seton Hill

(14 / 11) Shepherd

(13 / 10) Shippensburg

(9 / 14) Slippery Rock #

(15 / 10) Westchester

RMAC

(12 / 14) Adams St. #

(12 / 11) Black Hills

(17 / 14) Colorado Mesa #

(13 / 9) Colo. Mines

(11 / 8) Chadron State

(13 / 14) CSU-Pueblo #

(7 / 7) Ft. Lewis

(8 / 8) SD Mines

(12 / 8) Western Colorado

SAC

(- / 7) Anderson

(10 / 13) Catawba

(10 / 13) L-R

(11 / 11) Limestone

(10 / 10) Newberry

(17 / 12) Tusculum

(9 / 13) UVA Wise

(13 / 14) Wingate #

SIAC

(11 / 12) Albany State

(9 / 7) Allen

(10 / 9) Benedict

(11 / 11) Clark Atlanta

(12 / 15) Edward Waters #

(11 / 10) Ft. Valley State

(9 / 17) Kentucky State #

(15 / 13) Miles

(10 / 15) Savannah State #

(10 / 13) Tuskegee

[Argonut]

This is list of teams whose early schedule difficulty eliminates them from hoisting the 2024 D2 title based on the early schedule difficulty metrics of the last 7 years of playoffs.

While teams with difficulty values over 13 have made the playoffs none have won the title. Last year 5 teams with point values over 13 made the playoff field with Central Washington and Grand Valley going the deepest, but still being eliminated 3 wins short of the title. I will add to this list as more 2024 early schedules are available to be calculated.

Update-Looking back to D2 champions through 2000 did find two teams that won title with a 14, so it’s possible but not likely to occur.

18- Western Oregon

17- Kentucky State

15- West Texas A & M
- Virginia Union
- Minnesota Mankato
- Savannah State
- Wayne State (Mich.)
-Virginia State
-Washburn
-Edward Waters
- UNC Pembroke

14 (2 teams since 2000 did win title with a 14, but they mudstomped 2 of their first three opponents)
-Slippery Rock
- Augustana
- Winston-Salem
-Truman State
-Adams State
-Missouri Southern
-Wingate
-CSU-Pueblo
(Pueblo was one team that won the title with a 14)
-Colorado Mesa

[Argonut]

This is list of 2023 playoff field in order of playoff wins last year to show changes in early schedule point values from 2023 to 2024. The first number in parentheses is 2023, the second is 2024. I will complete the point values for 2024 as the schedules become available.

Note the low number of teams with point values over 13 and their early elimination with Central Washington and Grand Valley going the deepest but still being eliminated 3 wins short of the title.

Grand Valley was suffering from injury losses in last year’s playoff run and seems to have addressed this by easing up on their early schedule difficulty for 2024. Ferris State, Delta State (also had hurt QB in PO) and Shepherd did so as well, but 4 teams increased their difficulty values from at or below 13 to above 13 and likely ended their chance at the 2024 title.

(8 / 10) Harding
(13 / 9) Colorado Mines
(10 / 13) L- R
(12 / 9) Kutztown
(9 / 14) Slippery Rock
(8 / 10) Valdosta State
(14 / - ) Central Washington
(16 / 9) Grand Valley
(10 / 13) Pitt. State
(12 / - ) Central Missouri
(12 / 11) Charleston
(9 / - ) Tiffin
(10 / 9) Benedict
(15 / 12) Delta State
(8 / 14) Augustana
(11 / - ) Bemidji State
(9 / 9) Permian Basin
(12 / 8) Western Colorado
(13 / 15) Minn. Mankato
(11 / 11) Limestone
(12 / 12) West Florida
(14 / 11) Shepherd
(11 / - ) East Stroudsburg
(11 / 12) New Haven
(11 / 15) Virginia Union
(12 / 9) Henderson State
(16 / 12) Ferris State
(10 / 11) Indianapolis

[Argonut]

Early Schedule Profile of D2 Champion

I know I have harped on the 2 common early schedule elements of the last 7 (2016-2023) D2 champions having an early schedule point value of 13 or less and mudstomping at least 2 of their first 3 opponents, but I was curious whether there were more commonalities to be found in first three games that could paint a profile of a D2 champion.

It turns out that the last 7 D2 champions have a lot in common despite the different styles of offenses used by these champions. With the exception of Ferris State negative turnover margin, all of these D2 champions are piling up points, yardage, sacks and turnovers in first 3 games and holding opponents to a lot less. All of these champions get a LOT of sacks from a low of 30 to a high of 66 with 5 of 7 getting 40+ for the season. The first 3 game averages are even more impressive when you consider that some of these teams won and even lost a close game in one of the three games.

The 3 game profile is an average of each team’s average numbers for first three games with exception of turnover and sack margins which is an average of the total of all 7 teams first 3 games. The season profile is an average of each team’s per game average also with exception of turnovers and sack margins which is average of season total and not a per game average.

I am looking forward to identifying the teams with a early schedule point value of 13 or less that are mudstomping 2 of their first 3 opponents by these numbers and seeing if the 2024 D2 champion comes from that early season list.

Early Schedule Champion Profile (1st 3 Games)

Points scored: 46 (Range 39-59)
Points allowed: 14 (Range 9-26)
Margin victory: 32 (Range 22-43)
Total Yards gained: 450 (Range 362-529)
Total Yards allowed: 242 (Range 138-354)
Penalty Yards: 77 (Range 50-115)
Turnover margin: +2.14 (Range -1 to +6)
Sacks margin: +6 (Range 0 to +10)

Early Schedule Champion Profile (Full Season)

Points scored: 42 (Range 35-52)
Points allowed: 16 (Range 11-22)
Margin victory: 26 (Range 16-35)
Total Yards gained: 464 (Range 411-523)
Total Yards allowed: 284 (Range 228-355)
Penalty Yards: 72 (Range 42-94)
Turnover margin: +4.8 (Range -14 to +18)
Sacks margin: +27 (Range +15 to +42)

[Argonut]

2024 Mudstomping List

In light of the prior post data of the Early Schedule Difficulty Profile of a D2 Champion, the following is a preseason list of the potential D2 contenders for the 2024 title. This list is composed of all the teams that averaged 40 points (I included a couple on borderline) a game last year and have a early schedule difficulty of 13 or less for 2024.

Three teams on list have not released their 2024 schedule so it’s possible they could be deleted if they are over 13. Three teams with average scoring over 40 points per game (Slippery Rock, Pueblo and Pembroke) don’t make the list because their 2024 schedule difficulty is over 13.

I will obviously be amending this preseason list once the mudstomping begins in September. I have included their early schedule difficulty point value in parentheses along with average points per game last year.

1. Central Missouri (-) 49.4
2. Harding (10) 46.9
3. Colo. Mines (9) 46.5
4. Charleston (11) 44.0
5. Grand Valley (9) 43.8
6. Tiffin (-) 43.7
7. Delta State (11) 42.9
8. Permian Basin (9) 42.4
9. Emporia State (12) 40.7
10. Ferris State (12) 40.2
11. Ouachita Baptist (-) 39.8
12. Benedict (9) 39.8

[Argonut]

This is a comparison stat list of the D2 Champion Profile average season per game stats with those on the 2024 Mudstomping list for their 2023 season stats. (Turnover and Sacks are season stats and not per game stats) I have included the total 2023 sacks for the Mudstomping teams since 5 of 7 of the last seven D2 Champions had 40 or more total season sacks and the sack margin stat does not show this detail. The D2 Champions all had disruptive defenses that make a lot of sacks and force turnovers along with their highly productive offenses.

All of the 2024 Mudstompers were in the top 26 in offensive yards for 2023, but have wide variances on defense. Ferris was dead last in all of D2 in fewest per game penalty yards (meaning first in most penalty yards) and was very low in total sacks compared to prior Ferris teams. I'm sure the coaches for Ferris will be addressing those deficiencies in 2024. The 2024 Mudstomping teams that closely resemble the D2 Champion profile are Harding, Mines, Grand Valley, Tiffin, Delta State and Benedict. Of course these are 2023 team stats and 2024 will probably produce some teams not on this preseason list and may delete some of these teams on this preseason list once they start piling up game stats.

Team / O Pts. / D Pts. / O Yds. / D Yds. / Penalty / TO Margin / Sack Margin / Total Sacks

D2 Champ / 42 / 16 / 464 / 284 / 72 / +4.8 / +27 / 40

Central Mo./ 49.4 / 26.3 / 593 / 369 / 61.5 / +13 / +3 / 23

Harding / 46.9 / 10.8 / 458 / 246 / 42.4 / +18 / +40 / 42

C. Mines / 46.5 / 13 / 508 / 266 / 66.2 / +22 / +13 / 45

Charleston / 44 / 23.9 / 452 / 300 / 66.2 / 0 / +20 / 33

Grand Valley / 43.8 / 16 / 429 / 274 / 70.1 / +12 / +16 / 51

Tiffin / 43.7 / 16.2 / 482 / 281 / 66.9 / +20 / +15 / 36

Delta St. / 42.9 / 18.8 / 451 / 340 / 75.7 / +18 / +21 / 28

Permian / 42.4 / 16.2 / 476 / 254 / 63.8 / +5 / +4 / 19

Emporia St./ 40.7 / 27.3 / 497 / 444 / 50.9 / +17 / +18 / 26

Ferris St./ 40.2 / 17.9 / 457 / 282 / 109.9 / +10 / -9 / 16

Benedict/ 39.8 / 10.6 / 425 / 236 / 60.1 / +14 / +34 / 49

Ouachita/ 39.8 / 20.1 / 425 / 327 / 45.3 / +10 / +13 / 21

[Predatory Primates]

I'm highly doubting Emporia and Mines willbe any threat to win a NC this year. They both lose all world QBs.

[Argonut]

I'm highly doubting Emporia and Mines willbe any threat to win a NC this year. They both lose all world QBs.

I'm highly doubting Emporia and Mines willbe any threat to win a NC this year. They both lose all world QBs.

I would agree as a general and practical rule that losing an experienced, record setting QB would hamper a title run, but there are exceptions to this rule with the 2019 Argos as a prime example. They lost the entire QB room to injury in 2018 and their 2017 starter transferred to D1 Connecticut before the 2019 season.

The Argos were undecided at QB in their 2019 season opener and Austin Reed showed enough in the road loss to Carson Newman to get the start in week 2 where he lit up the scoreboard and stat sheet with his passing. The Argos rode his confident and productive arm all the way to the title.

The Argos are similarly undecided at QB this year after losing starter Jarrett to graduation. They have 3 D1 transfers fighting it out and coach Nobles said after the spring game that the starter will probably be decided at the season opener. (Coach Nobles was the QB coach for Reed in 2019)

We are all hoping for another Austin Reed deja vu season to emerge out of one of these three QB. The defense was so overwhelmingly dominating at the spring game that none of the three QB stood out from the others.

That is what I love about D2, there could be another Austin Reed anywhere in D2 that could bring a new team a first championship. Argo fans are hoping we have another Reed in the Argo QB room right now.

[Bisonfan from FLA]

2024 Mudstomping List

In light of the prior post data of the Early Schedule Difficulty Profile of a D2 Champion, the following is a preseason list of the potential D2 contenders for the 2024 title. This list is composed of all the teams that averaged 40 points (I included a couple on borderline) a game last year and have a early schedule difficulty of 13 or less for 2024.

Three teams on list have not released their 2024 schedule so it’s possible they could be deleted if they are over 13. Three teams with average scoring over 40 points per game (Slippery Rock, Pueblo and Pembroke) don’t make the list because their 2024 schedule difficulty is over 13.

I will obviously be amending this preseason list once the mudstomping begins in September. I have included their early schedule difficulty point value in parentheses along with average points per game last year.

1. Central Missouri (-) 49.4
2. Harding (10) 46.9
3. Colo. Mines (9) 46.5
4. Charleston (11) 44.0
5. Grand Valley (9) 43.8
6. Tiffin (-) 43.7
7. Delta State (11) 42.9
8. Permian Basin (9) 42.4
9. Emporia State (12) 40.7
10. Ferris State (12) 40.2
11. Ouachita Baptist (-) 39.8
12. Benedict (9) 39.8

Great post Argonut. Would you consider posting this on the General Discussion forum for all groups to view it? It is good material and could start a nice long thread in this spring dirth of D2 Football news.

By the way, I graduated from Escambia High and went to PJC for one year when UWF was a two year school. Go to PJC two years then UWF for two years. I elected to transfer to Harding to start my sophomore year. That lead to a job in town there, which lead to going back for a graduate degree, which lead to job at HU for several year. A total of 22 years spent in Searcy and attending/working with Harding. I was very pleased when UWF won the national in 2019, especially after having just started the football program not many years priot to that run. Of course I was VERY PLEASED this past December to have Harding join that esteemed list of National Champions! I live in South Florida and flew to Dallas to be at the game and I am looking to fly to Arkansas to watch a game on the HU campus!

Again, great post. Look forward to seeing you update it along the way in the upcoming season.

[Argonut]

Great post Argonut. Would you consider posting this on the General Discussion forum for all groups to view it? It is good material and could start a nice long thread in this spring dirth of D2 Football news.

By the way, I graduated from Escambia High and went to PJC for one year when UWF was a two year school. Go to PJC two years then UWF for two years. I elected to transfer to Harding to start my sophomore year. That lead to a job in town there, which lead to going back for a graduate degree, which lead to job at HU for several year. A total of 22 years spent in Searcy and attending/working with Harding. I was very pleased when UWF won the national in 2019, especially after having just started the football program not many years priot to that run. Of course I was VERY PLEASED this past December to have Harding join that esteemed list of National Champions! I live in South Florida and flew to Dallas to be at the game and I am looking to fly to Arkansas to watch a game on the HU campus!

Again, great post. Look forward to seeing you update it along the way in the upcoming season.

I was a PJC transfer to 2 year UWF in the early 1980’s when they slowly began to restart the athletic program. My last semester was the first semester of admitting freshman and it completely changed the atmosphere of the school- young people everywhere!

I have been going to athletics games since the early 90’s and have been more than pleased with how the football program has developed since 2015. The new proposed stadium looks tremendous and portends the likely move to D1. This thread is in the general discussion so I’m confused by your reference. Anyhow, congrats on your championship season and look forward to a Bison v Argos game somewhere in the future.

[Bisonfan from FLA]

Argonut.... my mistake in the posting. I had clicked seveal links to view the various tabs (GAC, GSC, SAC, etc... ) and looked up and saw GSC and thought that was where the thread was located. I guess I was in such a hurry to praise the post and encourage you to post for all to see, when in reality that is what you did! Oh well, doesn't change the fact that it is a great post and great insight and information and it confirms that was just too quick to type! Thanks again.

As to Bison vs Argos game.... when the thought was that the GSC might be loosing members and the remaining members would need to move to other conferences I was hopeing that UWF, West Alabama, Mississippi College and Delta State might join with the GAC. Our members Southern Arkansas and UAMonticello are not that far of a drive from you, comparatively with other GSC members. It would make for a unique landscape of the conference but it could open to door to Harding and UWF playing from time to time.

[Predatory Primates]

I would agree as a general and practical rule that losing an experienced, record setting QB would hamper a title run, but there are exceptions to this rule with the 2019 Argos as a prime example. They lost the entire QB room to injury in 2018 and their 2017 starter transferred to D1 Connecticut before the 2019 season.

The Argos were undecided at QB in their season opener and Austin Reed showed enough to get the start in week 2 and lit up the scoreboard and stat sheet with his passing. The Argos rode his arm all the way to the title.

The Argos are similarly undecided at QB this year after losing starter Jarrett to graduation. They have 3 D1 transfers fighting it out and coach Nobles said after spring game that the starter will probably be decided at the season opener. We are all hoping for another Austin Reed season to emerge out of these three QB.

That is what I love about D2, there could be another Austin Reed anywhere in D2 that could bring a new team a first championship.

There are definitely exceptions. ZZ took UCM from meh to contender in a single season.

[Argonut]

Argonut.... my mistake in the posting. I had clicked seveal links to view the various tabs (GAC, GSC, SAC, etc... ) and looked up and saw GSC and thought that was where the thread was located. I guess I was in such a hurry to praise the post and encourage you to post for all to see, when in reality that is what you did! Oh well, doesn't change the fact that it is a great post and great insight and information and it confirms that was just too quick to type! Thanks again.

As to Bison vs Argos game.... when the thought was that the GSC might be loosing members and the remaining members would need to move to other conferences I was hopeing that UWF, West Alabama, Mississippi College and Delta State might join with the GAC. Our members Southern Arkansas and UAMonticello are not that far of a drive from you, comparatively with other GSC members. It would make for a unique landscape of the conference but it could open to door to Harding and UWF playing from time to time.

Argos v. Bison will probably only happen in the playoffs in the next few years before the Argos leave for FCS. I could see an early round region transfer, otherwise it would be be in final four. I don’t see the GAC letting them loose for early season OOC game, so it’s either D2 playoffs or nada.

Argos did well against Carson Newman’s similar offense in their home and home in 2018-19, but still got gashed on the ground in both games in low scoring smash mouth contests. It would be fun to watch.

[GorillaTeacher]

There are definitely exceptions. ZZ took UCM from meh to contender in a single season.

I'm hoping for a large regression this season. Hopefully they don't have anyone to replace A. Smith, lol.

[Predatory Primates]

I'm hoping for a large regression this season. Hopefully they don't have anyone to replace A. Smith, lol.

They had 4 more just like him last year. That O is dizzying. I just hope their D still sucks.