Other items I’d like to add that expand on my previous post:
1. Is this going to eliminate X coach poaching Y player off Z roster? No.. But it’s going to probably create more balance across FBS football, specifically within the Power 4 schools. Ohio State has 5 quarterbacks on their roster currently who were ranked as 4 star or better recruits. Those players are all there cashing in on bogus NIL deals that won’t be permissible in 2025. So are those players all going to stay? What this will ultimately do is create a “going rate,” so to speak… Position by position… Sport by sport.. It’ll be, to a point, like free agency. Somebody sets the market and then the market adjusts. If the going rate for a starting QB at a P4 school is 1.5 million, those 4 players at OSU holding clipboards will go to where they can make the going rate and be a starting QB because OSU cannot physically pay them all the going rate for a starting QB. So somebody will transfer to Boston College, and Kansas, and Georgia Tech, etc., because they can be the starter, get a ton of tape, and make the going rate. Will the best players, mostly, still choose the best schools from a recruiting perspective? Yeah. But you’ll see over time this will prevent teams from being able to just stack their rosters with 4 and 5 star players 3 and 4 deep on the depth chart like you see now because schools physically cannot afford to pay them. The gap between some of the football factories and the other P4 schools likely gets smaller because of this, not wider. The other thing to consider, like I mentioned in my previous post, there is now simply going to be way less NIL money than before. So a coach can try to poach a player off a roster, but that coach may not have the money needed to make the transfer actually worth the player’s while. For fans of schools at non-football factories, that’s a GOOD thing.
2. I think this is great news for us D2 fans. Guys we missed out on previously because they went as a PWO at Pitt, Penn State, etc., will likely come back to the PSAC out of high school. I also think there will be far less transfers up a level now. The best of the absolute best can and will still make the jump. But the fringe guys… They aren’t leaving anymore. Not because they don’t want to. It’s because there are going to be less roster spots now. So unless you absolutely have a home locked up, those guys will stay at this level.
3. There is obviously a sport by sport conversation of this. Long term, I think you’ll see schools focus efforts regarding monetary distribution on what they are good at currently. For example, Boston College isn’t a football powerhouse. But they have a national championship women’s lacrosse program. They have an excellent men’s and women’s ice hockey program. It may not behoove them to put all of their 22 million into football. They will use a large chunk there, I’m sure, to be the same as they are now - which is average at best. But they will probably invest heavily into hockey and lacrosse to keep those programs at extremely high levels capable of winning national championships.
4. I read a post above expressing some grief over what this does to schools in the G5 conferences and how with this ruling, the gap is even wider between P4 and G5 than it was before... I struggle to agree with that at face value. Is Akron trying to spend with Ohio State? No. And to be clear.. Akron was never trying to spend with Ohio State. The gap between those types of schools and the P4 schools was always big (even before NIL). The only change now is that Akron’s best player will transfer the first opportunity he gets; he previously couldn’t do that. But people want to believe that there was a greater frequency of MAC level programs walking into road environments in the SEC, ACC, and B1G and winning before NIL. There really wasn’t. What those schools should be doing is spending to stack up with one another. Bowling Green, Ball State, etc., can’t spend 22 million. But if Ball State spends 2 million, and Toledo spends 8, Ball State is at a big disadvantage within their own playing field. Those schools need to compete with each other, not with the SEC. Expanding on my first point… I think you’ll still see upward movement from the best guys from the G5 schools to the P4 schools (with the one free transfer rule, there is no way to fix that at this point). But I still firmly believe that you’ll see less movement now within the P4 schools.
1. Is this going to eliminate X coach poaching Y player off Z roster? No.. But it’s going to probably create more balance across FBS football, specifically within the Power 4 schools. Ohio State has 5 quarterbacks on their roster currently who were ranked as 4 star or better recruits. Those players are all there cashing in on bogus NIL deals that won’t be permissible in 2025. So are those players all going to stay? What this will ultimately do is create a “going rate,” so to speak… Position by position… Sport by sport.. It’ll be, to a point, like free agency. Somebody sets the market and then the market adjusts. If the going rate for a starting QB at a P4 school is 1.5 million, those 4 players at OSU holding clipboards will go to where they can make the going rate and be a starting QB because OSU cannot physically pay them all the going rate for a starting QB. So somebody will transfer to Boston College, and Kansas, and Georgia Tech, etc., because they can be the starter, get a ton of tape, and make the going rate. Will the best players, mostly, still choose the best schools from a recruiting perspective? Yeah. But you’ll see over time this will prevent teams from being able to just stack their rosters with 4 and 5 star players 3 and 4 deep on the depth chart like you see now because schools physically cannot afford to pay them. The gap between some of the football factories and the other P4 schools likely gets smaller because of this, not wider. The other thing to consider, like I mentioned in my previous post, there is now simply going to be way less NIL money than before. So a coach can try to poach a player off a roster, but that coach may not have the money needed to make the transfer actually worth the player’s while. For fans of schools at non-football factories, that’s a GOOD thing.
2. I think this is great news for us D2 fans. Guys we missed out on previously because they went as a PWO at Pitt, Penn State, etc., will likely come back to the PSAC out of high school. I also think there will be far less transfers up a level now. The best of the absolute best can and will still make the jump. But the fringe guys… They aren’t leaving anymore. Not because they don’t want to. It’s because there are going to be less roster spots now. So unless you absolutely have a home locked up, those guys will stay at this level.
3. There is obviously a sport by sport conversation of this. Long term, I think you’ll see schools focus efforts regarding monetary distribution on what they are good at currently. For example, Boston College isn’t a football powerhouse. But they have a national championship women’s lacrosse program. They have an excellent men’s and women’s ice hockey program. It may not behoove them to put all of their 22 million into football. They will use a large chunk there, I’m sure, to be the same as they are now - which is average at best. But they will probably invest heavily into hockey and lacrosse to keep those programs at extremely high levels capable of winning national championships.
4. I read a post above expressing some grief over what this does to schools in the G5 conferences and how with this ruling, the gap is even wider between P4 and G5 than it was before... I struggle to agree with that at face value. Is Akron trying to spend with Ohio State? No. And to be clear.. Akron was never trying to spend with Ohio State. The gap between those types of schools and the P4 schools was always big (even before NIL). The only change now is that Akron’s best player will transfer the first opportunity he gets; he previously couldn’t do that. But people want to believe that there was a greater frequency of MAC level programs walking into road environments in the SEC, ACC, and B1G and winning before NIL. There really wasn’t. What those schools should be doing is spending to stack up with one another. Bowling Green, Ball State, etc., can’t spend 22 million. But if Ball State spends 2 million, and Toledo spends 8, Ball State is at a big disadvantage within their own playing field. Those schools need to compete with each other, not with the SEC. Expanding on my first point… I think you’ll still see upward movement from the best guys from the G5 schools to the P4 schools (with the one free transfer rule, there is no way to fix that at this point). But I still firmly believe that you’ll see less movement now within the P4 schools.
Comment