West Liberty Hilltopper Basketball

[Columbuseer]

WV Wesleyan - Tale of two different games from 1st and second half from analytics point of view.
WV Wesleyan second half :
- went from .72 points per possession to 1.91 Points per possession (which is unheard of, as WLU was #1 in D1 and D2 last year at 1.25)
- went from 61% turnoverless possessions to incredible 89%!
- 3 pt made went from 33% to 90%.
- Were scoring in the second half at a rate of 136 points per game
WLU second half
-actually increased their points per possession to 1.38 in the second half, which is very, very good and will win most games.
-WLU only had 3 turnovers in the second half.
-WLU increased their turnoverless possessions from an good 78% to an astronomical 91%.
- WLU shot an outstanding 50% from three in both halves.

Without watching the game, the stats are very perplexing.

IMHO (from a dummy's point of view):
- WLU was playing one on one against WVW changing defenses that was packing the ball inside. This lack of ball movement allowed WVW to rest on defense, which helps three point shooting.
- WLU often lost court balance due to their one on one drives on missed shots as well as in the press, which led to run outs for layups.
- WLU had insufficient defensive intensity, which led to wide open threes, of which WVW hit 90%. IMHO one cannot just look at shooting averages to determine if a player is a good three point shooter. A shooter with an uncontested shot will shoot a much higher % than a player who is guarded or forced to shoot quickly or off balance.

One thing I have noticed on the press. Beginning with Daemen, teams are throwing the long pass from out of bounds deep down the floor with success.
They have seen something on how our back line players are positioned or transitioning from offense to defense. One thing I noticed is that some of our back line players are in poor position to react to a long pass.
They should be playing with one shoulder pointed toward the backcourt and the other pointed toward the man behind him or the defensive basket. Some are playing with their shoulders parallel to the center line. If the ball is thrown, they must first take time to pivot their body before they can take a first step and accelerate back to defend while the ball is in the air. By that time it is too late to intercept the ball.

I understand they need to play in front of the deep man, but their distance and body position should be aligned to react quickly.
Kind of like defensive safeties who "jump a route".
Keep their body turned to run toward the defensive basket while watching the inbounding opponent. Then react quickly when his arm goes back to throw the long ball.



In summary, IMHO WLU lost game through insufficient ball movement, lack of focus (aka dumb mistakes) and intensity on defense. Turkey hangover?

[Columbuseer]

Columbuseer: This isn't a trolling comment so don't take it that way ... rather just an 'outsider' perspective from somebody who pays way too much attention to D2 basketball.

Personally, I don't see an offensive problem at all. WL scored 91 points and hit 15 of 30 from three-point land. You also had just 11 turnovers. Rebounds were close. That should win you 99.9% of games.

What I see is a defensive problem.

Consider: WVW averaged 72 ppg through their first 7 games. You guys gave up 68 points to them in 20 minutes last night. How is that even possible? I saw them play in person. They (WVW) are far from some offensive juggernaut. That defensive performance is completely unacceptable. That's more than 3 points a minute allowed.

I know you are not trolling. Those of us who were at the game were asking ourselves the same thing - "how is this possible?" How can a team go from beautiful ball movement that is slicing and dicing the opponent wth everyone scoring and on pace to a 50 point victory margin, to a pickup AAU game in the second half?
Boggles the mind.

I saw opponents getting behind our guys for long passes for layups. Do we need to put rear view mirrors on uniforms?
We were leaving everyone outside wide open. They could have put a finger up to account for windage, gotten nice and relaxed, and then still had plenty of time to launch the shot.
I saw our guys on offense receive the ball, look for a couple of seconds and then dribble twice for no apparent reason or strategy and then pass it back to the perimeter . Easy to defend and easy to rest when the ball is sticking on offense.

In the second half, guys were driving to the basket and getting challenged by multiple players but still taking the shot, when someone else was open. The shots might not have been bad shots, but they were not GREAT shots. When some of the leaders of your team do this, even if they are great players, it opens Pandora's box for everyone else to show off their dribble drive. Except the shots were not falling.

On the press, I saw three guys trapping one player with no one guarding the three opponents on the other side of the court. Weird stuff like they were having brain cramps.

I have given you symptoms but not answered why. What is the root cause? Not sure. Some guesses that are highly speculative:
1. I think they did not take WVW seriously after they jumped on them early, resulting in a lack of focus to take the game seriously. This where your team's leaders have to step in IMHO.
2. The starting five broke the "fourth wall' by gesturing to the crowd at the timeout instead to hustling to the bench when the timeout was called. IMHO Coach was not happy. I had not seen a WLU starting five do that during a game in the past. IMHO that indicates your mind is not between the lines
(FYI - The fourth wall in drama refers to the wall between the stage and the audience. In general, the cast members are not supposed to acknowledge that the audience exists, and sometimes when they do, it is referred to as breaking the fourth wall..)
3. I think some of the guys are having trouble moving effectively and consistently without the ball except on the perimeter, especially when their teammates are in dribble drive mode. Really easy to guard.

This team was built to play the WL style, not 1-on-1. They deviate from the WL style at their peril.

[Scrub]

Columbuseer: This isn't a trolling comment so don't take it that way ... rather just an 'outsider' perspective from somebody who pays way too much attention to D2 basketball.

Personally, I don't see an offensive problem at all. WL scored 91 points and hit 15 of 30 from three-point land. You also had just 11 turnovers. Rebounds were close. That should win you 99.9% of games.

What I see is a defensive problem.

Consider: WVW averaged 72 ppg through their first 7 games. You guys gave up 68 points to them in 20 minutes last night. How is that even possible? I saw them play in person. They (WVW) are far from some offensive juggernaut. That defensive performance is completely unacceptable. That's more than 3 points a minute allowed.

I'm with you IUPbig. And I'd bet that Howlett is as well.

It's true that WLU looked out of sync on offense last night. Columbus isn't wrong about that. And if WLU gets better looks and scores 125, no one is worried about WVWC's 94 in a 125-94 Hilltopper win.

However, it's also true that Howlett is a guy who prides himself on defense, and the defense was giving up way too many open (and easy, in-the-paint) looks last night. It's not as though WVWC was doing anything spectacular or complicated. They were running a high pick and roll. Vicentic sets very high screen for Petrovic. If the defense switches, dump to Vicentic rolling to the hoop now guarded by 5'10" Dyer. Easy bucket. If the defense doesn't switch, Dyer is trailing Petrovic who gets a layup. If Moore or Bolon collapse on either of the Serbs when they enter the lane, kick out to an unconscious Daylin Lee sitting in the corner drilling bombs in the game of his life. That was the very simple formula WVWC used to score 68 in the second half. I'm no basketball coach or high level player, but there has to be a way for strong basketball minds (either on the bench or on the floor) to game plan against that very simple formula. This was like a Power-5 football team being carved up by Army's Wing-T or something like that.

[IUPbigINDIANS]

Columbuseer: This isn't a trolling comment so don't take it that way ... rather just an 'outsider' perspective from somebody who pays way too much attention to D2 basketball.

Personally, I don't see an offensive problem at all. WL scored 91 points and hit 15 of 30 from three-point land. You also had just 11 turnovers. Rebounds were close. That should win you 99.9% of games.

What I see is a defensive problem.

Consider: WVW averaged 72 ppg through their first 7 games. You guys gave up 68 points to them in 20 minutes last night. How is that even possible? I saw them play in person. They (WVW) are far from some offensive juggernaut. That defensive performance is completely unacceptable. That's more than 3 points a minute allowed.

[Columbuseer]

Easily the worst loss in the combined Crutchfield/Howlett era.

... all while Crutch is building an absolute powerhouse in Florida. Still bitter we let him get away.

[IUPbigINDIANS]

Certainly not crowning them, yet.

But what he has done in just two years is impressive.

... it must be super hard to recruit in that area, 'ya know?

I'm sure. Lol. I walked around the campus one evening this summer while I was down there for work. As I've said before ... if he gets you to visit ... done deal. You're at the beach. Beautiful city and campus. Ladies galore. New arena. Easy sell.

[ssidiver]

Crutch has also played beyond a cream-puff schedule so far. The teams he's beat have a combined record of 7-22.

They also struggled mightily with 2-6 Tampa (won 81-77). I wouldn't crown them anything yet.

Certainly not crowning them, yet.

But what he has done in just two years is impressive.

... it must be super hard to recruit in that area, 'ya know?

[IUPbigINDIANS]

Easily the worst loss in the combined Crutchfield/Howlett era.

... all while Crutch is building an absolute powerhouse in Florida. Still bitter we let him get away.

Crutch has also played beyond a cream-puff schedule so far. The teams he's beat have a combined record of 7-22.

They also struggled mightily with 2-6 Tampa (won 81-77). I wouldn't crown them anything yet.

[ssidiver]

Easily the worst loss in the combined Crutchfield/Howlett era.

... all while Crutch is building an absolute powerhouse in Florida. Still bitter we let him get away.

[Columbuseer]

You mentioned some of the experienced guys. It looks to me like Yoakum was in the doghouse down the stretch of that game. When the game was hanging in the balance for the final 6 minutes, Robinson was running with the first team. I wonder if there will be a shake-up to the starting lineup going forward. It certainly felt last night like Howlett trusted Robinson (and, at times, even Butler) more than last year's Conference Freshman of the Year.

Will may have had an off game but he was not the one(s) I was thinking of. He just needs to improve his consistency.

[IUPalum]

I guess the days of comparing WL and Nova are finally over!!!

[Scrub]

You mentioned some of the experienced guys. It looks to me like Yoakum was in the doghouse down the stretch of that game. When the game was hanging in the balance for the final 6 minutes, Robinson was running with the first team. I wonder if there will be a shake-up to the starting lineup going forward. It certainly felt last night like Howlett trusted Robinson (and, at times, even Butler) more than last year's Conference Freshman of the Year.

[Columbuseer]

[Columbuseer]

Columbuseer, you have a better analytical eye for this stuff than I do. I'm gonna need you to tell me what I just saw. I have no idea what I just watched. Speechless.

We gave Wesleyan open looks and they hit them. Also we have become enamored with dribble drive and difficult shots rather than ball movement. Boswell is the only one who consistently uses good judgment on when to drive. We were dissecting them on offense in the first 10 minutes with ball movement then went to perimeter passing and dribble drive. The ball is sticking and some our most experienced guys are the worst offenders. For 7 games coach has been yelling MOVE !
we have great shooters. No one needs to win the game by themselves. I will look at the stats when they are posted.

[Scrub]

They scored 52 in the WHOLE game up here. Who did all the scoring for them?

They looked like they were on pace for 52 down here as well . . . until the second half happened. As I mentioned above, Daylin Lee was the high man off the bench for WVWC with 23.