West Liberty Hilltopper Basketball

[Columbuseer]

Re: West Liberty Hilltopper Basketball

RFr Luke Dyer will be Arnolds principle back-up at PG. I think he is definently up to that task. He has a year in the program so he understands the offense and how to run it. It's not like he is a true freshman like say Dennis was. In fact, the Toppers went into Dennis first year with a PG tandem of second year player Brady Arnold penciled in as the starter and true freshman Dave Dennis as his back-up. While that turned out pretty good, I propose that it was MUCH more shakey heading into the season than this coming year were we have a PG tandem of a senior and second year player.

WLU has many players who would be capable of triggering the offense as a relief PG. I think one we are all overlooking is Dan Monteroso. Not many players in the league that can stay with Dan off the dribble. Imagine him sweeping down the lane and pulling the D to him...his only question will be do I finish this off myself or do I hit the open snipper at the 3 point line?

The more I think about it, the more I like the idea of Monteroso triggering the offense for extended periods!!

1. Monterosa at PG is an intriguing idea.
2. I looked at minutes played when Dennis was a frosh. I think Dennis was always the starting PG and that view is substantiated by the minutes played. For his frosh season he averaged over 31 minutes a game, second only to bonifant. Brady averaged less than 21 (he was not listed in top 5 and # 5 lamberti had 21 minutes). The first few games Dennis and Arnold were on the court at the same time, both getting over 30 minutes.However, things changed around game 6 where Dennis was getting over 30 minutes consistently and Brady get minutes in the high teens. See stats on Fairmont state game and Clarion game in game 9. Dennis was 2 time player of the year in Division 4 Ohio so it should not have been a surprise. I mean no disrespect to Brady, as he a great player. He can easily play SG and did so on occasion during David's freshman year.
3. Hope you are right about Luke. He has to get minutes and prove he is ready, or else we have an issue next year at PG.

[boatcapt]

Re: West Liberty Hilltopper Basketball

RFr Luke Dyer will be Arnolds principle back-up at PG. I think he is definently up to that task. He has a year in the program so he understands the offense and how to run it. It's not like he is a true freshman like say Dennis was. In fact, the Toppers went into Dennis first year with a PG tandem of second year player Brady Arnold penciled in as the starter and true freshman Dave Dennis as his back-up. While that turned out pretty good, I propose that it was MUCH more shakey heading into the season than this coming year were we have a PG tandem of a senior and second year player.

WLU has many players who would be capable of triggering the offense as a relief PG. I think one we are all overlooking is Dan Monteroso. Not many players in the league that can stay with Dan off the dribble. Imagine him sweeping down the lane and pulling the D to him...his only question will be do I finish this off myself or do I hit the open snipper at the 3 point line?

The more I think about it, the more I like the idea of Monteroso triggering the offense for extended periods!!

[Columbuseer]

Re: West Liberty Hilltopper Basketball

WLU has never been concerned with height...he NCAA Tourney.

1. Brady is one of my favorite players. He will definitely start IMHO. I have lost count of the number of fast breaks he has stopped by using his incredible speed to catch up to the dribbler and tap the ball away from behind. Great hops on his jump shot from 15 ft in too. Definitely a case of a D1 player in a small man's body. More than anything, I am impressed by his sheer will to win. He plays defense very aggressively, which sometimes gets him in some foul difficulty, when a bigger player takes him inside. (I did not agree with all of the foul calls against him, BTW).

That is the dilemma. who spells Brady? Watson had to fill some need to sign a one and done player. I don't think another good 3 pt shooter is a need at wlu, just like Alaska does not need more snow.

As you said, height is not the overriding requirement. A player has to have the other basic skills and fit the wlu system. Then if he is also tall, then that is a plus in WLU system.
They offered a 6 ft 8 guy from Cleveland St. Ignatius who from videos looked like a great fit, but he chose Hillsdale.
I think if Watson starts (which I don't think will happen), it will mean he is really, really good, which improves our chances of a great season. On the other hand if our 6.5 bigs (Allen, Meine, Moore) cannot defend teams with 2 athletic bigs like Lincoln Memorial, or Sleva from Shippensburg (that guy is unstoppable inside), we may not make it out of the region without red hot 3 pt shooting and big turnover margins.

[boatcapt]

Re: West Liberty Hilltopper Basketball

You made some good points.
Some other points to consider:
1. Watson got 16 points against IUP; very athletic and bigger than Arnold/Dyer, could match up better with athletic big guards.
2. Dennis leaving announced in mid-march. Finding PG who can start as a Frosh is rare and those that can have probably already committed as they would not have wanted to sit behind Dennis, had he stayed. Forced to go transfer route, which often does not shake out until after end of academic year.
3. He may very well be a SG. IF so, we are still vulnerable to a big PG, unless Watson guards the PG on defense. Of course that just shifts the size disparity with our PG having to defend a larger SG.
4. I mean no disrespect to Luke Dyer, but he is a RS freshman. If in the event he is not quite ready, who do you put at the PG to spell Brady? Saben? However, the lack of an experienced PG is not as dire an issue as other teams as all WLU players have great passing skills and protect the ball under pressure.

WLU has never been concerned with height...Reference the fact that our projected starting "big" this year is 6'5"!! Arnold is also insanely quick which presents a defensive problem for big PG's. Its a tradeoff but I think at the end of the day height vs quickness is a wash. Also remember, these small PG's have a ton of experience playing D vs bigger PG's and have become quite skilled at it. Actually, you put Arnolds skill set in a 6'3" package and he's probably NOT playing DII. The PG's that he will be defending often DO have the prototypical D1 PG size but have wholes in their games that made every D1 say, "thanks..pass." He's not being asked to guard Markelle Fultz because PG's like Fultz don't play DII!!!!!

While I think Watson has a place and can contribute to WLU, I don't think that place is in the starting lineup. I mean, who do you push to the bench to insert him into the starting lineup? Monteroso - Uhhh...NO, Allen - Allen is better than Watson so no, Meini - Unless you think Watson can be the defacto "big" no, Griffin - Maybe if he doesn't perform like he did last year but even if that happens, I think Smith or Bolton or Moore are more skilled options to replace him in the starting rotation.

I also don't buy the there was no one left so we had to take him argument. Here's an example of a JUCO player from my neck of the woods who is still unsigned:

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=foF49BJvjB0

Not saying we should have signed him or that he would even consider coming to WLU. My point is that there are still good options at PG out there if you think you desperately need a PG.

What I see Watson as is a term insurance policy. Short term "coverage" at a very low cost. If injuries hit the team or a couple of players you thought were ready to play are not quite there, it's good to have a seasoned vet with starting experience you can stick into the lineup to settle things down. Imagine a situation were Monti turns an ankle, Arnold tweeks a hamstring and Griff is in a shooting slump...and you play at Fairmont tomorrow night. Having an experienced SR to stick in to settle things down would be a very good thing!!

My prediction...If Watson becomes our starting PG, we are looking at a season that is closer to 500 than undefeated with very little chance of making the NCAA Tourney.

[Columbuseer]

Re: West Liberty Hilltopper Basketball

I just don't buy Watson as a PG. For the sake of argument, let's say that that is Coach H's plan. He has brought in a player off a bad DII program that wasn't good enough to be the PG there...or even the leading secondary assist getters as the starting SG (ala Devin Hoehn). I mean, Dennis has been gone for a while and a big portion of that time has been prime recruiting season. If Coach H was really concerned about his PG situation, he had MONTHS of recruiting time to add one, yet he didn't do that. Don't believe he woke up a couple of weeks ago and said "My g0d, we need a point guard!!" and the only player left was a senior shooting guard from Lincoln PA.

As someone here recently said, you never have enough shooters. I see Watson as that...a good shooter. He has experience and WLU had a spot. I doubt WLU is giving him any scholly money and the fact that he is a senior means the cost this year and in the future is zero. If he comes in and is a great shooter that was just shackled in a bad program...we win...If he comes in and only provides experienced depth and pushes the front line players in practice...we win...If all he has is five fouls to give and uses them to hammer a given opponents shooter...we win. Only way we lose is if he comes in and is somehow disruptive...but as a one year player, that would be difficult for him to accomplish. What Watson gets is a chance to go out on a winner and a chance to play an important role on that team...and the chance to tap into WLU's European pro connections after he graduates. Doubt he was gong to get much pro interest coming out of a bad Lincoln program. Roll the dice...see what happens...at worst he will probably get a chance to play in the NCAA tourney.

You made some good points.
Some other points to consider:
1. Watson got 16 points against IUP; very athletic and bigger than Arnold/Dyer, could match up better with athletic big guards.
2. Dennis leaving announced in mid-march. Finding PG who can start as a Frosh is rare and those that can have probably already committed as they would not have wanted to sit behind Dennis, had he stayed. Forced to go transfer route, which often does not shake out until after end of academic year.
3. He may very well be a SG. IF so, we are still vulnerable to a big PG, unless Watson guards the PG on defense. Of course that just shifts the size disparity with our PG having to defend a larger SG.
4. I mean no disrespect to Luke Dyer, but he is a RS freshman. If in the event he is not quite ready, who do you put at the PG to spell Brady? Saben? However, the lack of an experienced PG is not as dire an issue as other teams as all WLU players have great passing skills and protect the ball under pressure.

[boatcapt]

Re: West Liberty Hilltopper Basketball

I just don't buy Watson as a PG. For the sake of argument, let's say that that is Coach H's plan. He has brought in a player off a bad DII program that wasn't good enough to be the PG there...or even the leading secondary assist getters as the starting SG (ala Devin Hoehn). I mean, Dennis has been gone for a while and a big portion of that time has been prime recruiting season. If Coach H was really concerned about his PG situation, he had MONTHS of recruiting time to add one, yet he didn't do that. Don't believe he woke up a couple of weeks ago and said "My g0d, we need a point guard!!" and the only player left was a senior shooting guard from Lincoln PA.

As someone here recently said, you never have enough shooters. I see Watson as that...a good shooter. He has experience and WLU had a spot. I doubt WLU is giving him any scholly money and the fact that he is a senior means the cost this year and in the future is zero. If he comes in and is a great shooter that was just shackled in a bad program...we win...If he comes in and only provides experienced depth and pushes the front line players in practice...we win...If all he has is five fouls to give and uses them to hammer a given opponents shooter...we win. Only way we lose is if he comes in and is somehow disruptive...but as a one year player, that would be difficult for him to accomplish. What Watson gets is a chance to go out on a winner and a chance to play an important role on that team...and the chance to tap into WLU's European pro connections after he graduates. Doubt he was gong to get much pro interest coming out of a bad Lincoln program. Roll the dice...see what happens...at worst he will probably get a chance to play in the NCAA tourney.

[Columbuseer]

Re: West Liberty Hilltopper Basketball

We'll see about Arnold vs Watson...I saw good quickness, good shooting from Watson on video...we'll see how it translates...I guess the main reason I think he'll get time is this...Ben picked him up in late July....He didn't "NEED" to add a player...It tells me he is not sold on Dyer or anyone else as back up PG...It tells me that he wanted "upgrade" and get depth for this year...he's a one year player...He didn't bring him on to sit the bench or he didn't bring him on to take a year to learn the system...SO i think if Watson is decent, he'll play...

I agree with you. If he fits, then Watson will play. Arnold and Dyer were the only two PGs in the program, both with similar stature. Asking a lot for RS freshman to play significant minutes at PG - he just needs time to mature.

I am impressed with Howlett's recognition of personnel gaps and proactive steps to close the gaps. First Allen, now Watson. The hours of work to identify, evaluate and then recruit these two guys at this late date had to have been huge.
He must be working his brains out. I am impressed by both the effort and the results.

[IUP Extra Mile]

Re: West Liberty Hilltopper Basketball

We'll see about Arnold vs Watson...I saw good quickness, good shooting from Watson on video...we'll see how it translates...I guess the main reason I think he'll get time is this...Ben picked him up in late July....He didn't "NEED" to add a player...It tells me he is not sold on Dyer or anyone else as back up PG...It tells me that he wanted "upgrade" and get depth for this year...he's a one year player...He didn't bring him on to sit the bench or he didn't bring him on to take a year to learn the system...SO i think if Watson is decent, he'll play...

I think he can contribute but I just don't see him as the starting PG or even the #2 PG. As you point out, he was on bad Lincoln teams. If he was truly that gifted as a PG, he should have had no real problem winning the job. And a gifted PG can certainly score from that position so you can't say that the team was better off with him as almost strictly an outside shooter.

Not a lot of video I could find on him but what I was able to find showed a spot jump shooter. Certainly he can handle the ball but from what I saw he was not overly quick off the dribble. Could be just a case of limited video that didn't really show his true ability, but I think we would have some pretty major problems if he comes in and beats out a senior with three years in the program, and two second year players (Dyer and Bolton) that should be our PG tandem the following two years. But hey...you never know. Hate to keep trotting Griffin out but he did certainly exceed expectations.

[boatcapt]

Re: West Liberty Hilltopper Basketball

You'll need to see him on the court before making any real assessments. Lincoln has had some really, really weak teams. He likely didn't have much help.

IUP opened with them last year but I don't remember him. That game got real out of hand. They won by 20-something but it was a deceiving final. He ended up with a decent stat line in that game. I know Joe emptied the bench the last 9-10 minutes so I don't know when his points came.

He's certainly going to be surrounded by significantly more talent. Lincoln kind of played street ball, though, so it will be interesting to see how he fits the structure of WL.

I think he can contribute but I just don't see him as the starting PG or even the #2 PG. As you point out, he was on bad Lincoln teams. If he was truly that gifted as a PG, he should have had no real problem winning the job. And a gifted PG can certainly score from that position so you can't say that the team was better off with him as almost strictly an outside shooter.

Not a lot of video I could find on him but what I was able to find showed a spot jump shooter. Certainly he can handle the ball but from what I saw he was not overly quick off the dribble. Could be just a case of limited video that didn't really show his true ability, but I think we would have some pretty major problems if he comes in and beats out a senior with three years in the program, and two second year players (Dyer and Bolton) that should be our PG tandem the following two years. But hey...you never know. Hate to keep trotting Griffin out but he did certainly exceed expectations.

[IUPbigINDIANS]

Re: West Liberty Hilltopper Basketball

You'll need to see him on the court before making any real assessments. Lincoln has had some really, really weak teams. He likely didn't have much help.

IUP opened with them last year but I don't remember him. That game got real out of hand. They won by 20-something but it was a deceiving final. He ended up with a decent stat line in that game. I know Joe emptied the bench the last 9-10 minutes so I don't know when his points came.

He's certainly going to be surrounded by significantly more talent. Lincoln kind of played street ball, though, so it will be interesting to see how he fits the structure of WL.

[boatcapt]

Re: West Liberty Hilltopper Basketball

Sorry, just don't see Watson as a PG. He played for three years on some pretty bad Lincoln teams and was never more than the forth option from an assist per game standpoint. What he does appear to be was Lincoln's first option from 3 point range. But I would note that he is a .377 career shooter from beyond the arc.

As a jump shooter, he seems to be more of a spot shooter vice a player that gets the ball and finds space.

Both Watson and Arnold have played three years so here are a couple of comparisons:

3 Point shooting: Arnold 41.8% (92 of 220), Watson 37.7% (95 of 252)
Assists: Arnold 177, Watson 58
Games Played: Arnold 96, Watson 61
Games Started: Arnold 9, Watson 44

Anyone know what happened to Watson last year? He played in Lincoln's first 11 games but none after that. That seems to indicate an injury but there is nothing I can find about that. They were playing JC Smith and he came out of the game at the 17:25 mark of the first half in what looks like a typical team substitution...and never returned to the court wearing a Lincoln uniform.

[IUP Extra Mile]

Re: West Liberty Hilltopper Basketball

My thoughts on the upcoming season...and maybe some of it is wishful thinking, maybe some of it is naivete....

I think Saben is NOT going to redshirt and will contribute this year.

I think Bolon will have a good season, with significant minutes.

I think Allen will be a stud...

Monteroso, who will have a full year of hoops behind him without football, will be unstoppable..His athleticism is off the charts, and a game changer at D2 level. Everyone forgets he pulled a hammy vs WJ in regional, and still should have won..He'll average 23 and will garner AA votes...

I'm not as high on Arnold as others...Hope I'm wrong heading into his sr season...I'm not sure he can penetrate and dish and setup the others as WL PG should...I think Watson will get solid minutes here...and could see Arnold playing off the ball more..

I think a battle for mins will come down to Smith vs French...both similar players in my mind...Decent shooters, decent penetrators, able to get to lane...play with moxie and smarts, but not sure either will supplant Griffin and can't see both play at same time...

Meiny and Frosh Moore will get interior mins....and hope they are both up to the rebounding task..NOt much size on this team, but i'd still rather have shooters than bigs..

Starters:
Monty
Griffin
Arnold (But Watson by year end)
Allen
Bolon

Off Bench:
Meiny
Saben
Moore
Smith / French

[DownLow55]

Re: West Liberty Hilltopper Basketball

Tier 1 The TOP PRODUCERS. Monteroso will definently get heavy minutes! I also see Arnold getting heavy minutes...not as heavy as Monteroso but still pretty heavy. Both need to average over 30 per game with Monty at or above 35 MPG. I think the performance of those two will dictate to a large extent what the 17-18 Toppers become. As good as Monty played last season, he only averaged 18 PPG...He needs to be well over 20 this year and probably at or above 25 PPG. Arnold needs to "be Dennis" from an assist and scoring stand point. Give him "Dennis minutes" and his historic production argues it certainly is in the relm of realistic possibility. He needs to move his production from possible to real now that he will be the starter.

Tier 2 The CRITICAL STARTING COGS. Probably be Meininger, Griffin and either French or Allen. This tier players should average in the low 20's minute wise. Meini needs to understand that he is the defacto "big" on this team and step his rebounding up considerably. If he does that well, his scoring will by default increase to the 10 PPG range which is were we need him. Griffin...Is he the scrub player we thought we had picked up as a last minute signee just to give us a practice dummy, is he the guy who came in and scored 15 points off the bench in his first game, grabbed a starting spot by mid season and scored in double digits 13 times, ORRRR is he the guy that scored 0, 0 and 3 in three of WLU's last 4 games? Need him to be a consistent mid teens scorer. I put French and Allen together because I see them locked in a fight for the last starting position...I probably should have thrown Smith in with them as well. Which ever one ultimately wins, we need them to be a big contributor with their scoring in the upper teens per game.

Tier 3 The KEY RESERVES. High quality depth is the straw that stirs the WLU drink. This years Toppers will need to ID a new cast of characters who can be plugged in and produce at any point in the game. These critical reserves need to average 10 to 15 minutes per game and score in the 10 PPG range. In addition to the two players above who don't win the starting nod, I see Luke Dyer being the principle back up at PG, Moore and Ochoa vieing for the principle back up "big." Watson I think will fill an important position here...that of the designated sniper. He needs to be instant outside offense...I don't see him playing a ton of minutes but he needs to be highly efficient and productive in those minutes.

Tier 4 The DEEP DEPTH. Let me start by saying a WLU "Deep Depth" player should not be confused with an end of the bench player on a typical team that only gets minutes in garbage time of blowouts. Particuarly through the first half of the season, there is not much difference between the "key reserves" and the "deep depth" players. These players will be given every opportunity to work themselves up the "food chain"...all they have to do is perform and the minutes will keep coming. Case in point, Griffin started last season in this group (actually near the BOTTOM of this group) and worked his way into the starting lineup by mid season. I think the "deep depth" player to keep a serious eye on is Dalton Bolton...he could be primed to be a surprise break out player this year.

The Redshirts. Saben and Yoakum. They have ability but are both painfully thin. Give them a year in the weight room and hitting the cafeteria. 20 pounds of muscle will be transformative for both players! I'd like to see Ochoa here but I think our size issues will force him on to the court.

Saben is 6-3 195. I would say the roles of Allen, Watson and Bolton are going to be very important this year.

[boatcapt]

Re: West Liberty Hilltopper Basketball

I find this years squad quite interesting. Many questions but some very interesting options that either have shown flashes of being really really good or that are first year players that have shown well previously be it in HS or on other D1, DII or JUCO teams. We will need to have a few of them to reach their full potential immediately to be really good. If they do, this is a team that could make some serious noise come playoff time. BUUUTT...if none of them are quite ready this year, we could struggle and be closer to 500 than we have been in quite a while. Watching how this evolves will be worth the price of the ticket!

Because WLU is what they are, we will always get every teams best shot and you know they are itching to exact some revenge for the beatings we dished out over the last 10 years. Many programs probably feel like this is their chance to hit us when they think we are down. Team needs to own that and go into the season with a chip on their shoulders and try to deliver a good old fashon WLU a$$ woopin' to every opponent! Kind of a "You thought you could run with us?? Were WLU...we dont rebuild, we reload! Now watch us rain 3s on you and run you into the dirt!!"

While Im certainly most interested in this year, looking at the roster I cant help but feel that this team will be a force the next year and the year after that.

[Columbuseer]

Re: West Liberty Hilltopper Basketball

Great analysis as always, Boatcapt.
I think your comment about deep depth players being different from garbage time players o nother teams is what makes it so hard for me to map the Tier 2- Tier 4 players with certainty. Everyone can shoot, drive, hit 3 pt shots, dribble, rebound, pass and play defense. As you said individual performance can be very dynamic over time.

I think their basketball IQ, ability to pick up the west liberty style, meet defensive effort expectations and play error-free when in the game will largely determine their playing time. These are intangibles that don't show up in highlight videos.