West Liberty Hilltopper Basketball

[Columbuseer]

Former Hilltoppers in portal from indy
D’Augustino ( leading scorer) - probably poached by $
Dragas ( torn meniscus 6 month rehab)
Aiden Miller (commit from point park)

————-
in addition maguire Mitchell, promising freshman is in the portal.

also Max Hurray is going to d3 Roanoke college.

D’Augustino going to Ohio univ

[Columbuseer]

Fyi
Montgomery 2nd team Atlantic region as a true freshman.
https://hilltoppersports.com/news/20...an-season.aspx

[IUPbigINDIANS]

The hardest time to do a thing is the first time...after that it becomes easy. These players quit in WLU...Not surprised they have now quit on Howlett and IU Indy.

Basically the entire Horizon League is in the Portal. It's just another rung up the ladder (stepping stone league) like the rest of us.

But, yeah, Ben got gutted.

[boatcapt]

The hardest time to do a thing is the first time...after that it becomes easy. These players quit in WLU...Not surprised they have now quit on Howlett and IU Indy.

[Columbuseer]

Former Hilltoppers in portal from indy
D’Augustino ( leading scorer) - probably poached by $
Dragas ( torn meniscus 6 month rehab)
Aiden Miller (commit from point park)

————-
in addition maguire Mitchell, promising freshman is in the portal.

also Max Hurray is going to d3 Roanoke college.

[Columbuseer]

Fyi
owen hill article wlu signee
https://www.morningjournalnews.com/s...r-locals-hill/

[boatcapt]

Jim's probably a bit raw. It's really hard to get up 100 shots a day when you spend all your time on a raft.

True...but at least he has tremendous upper body strength!

[Scrub]

Hahah...I'm sure there is an advanced stats that says he can!!! He's only 5'9", 145 lbs but in The System, size doesn't matter. I hear he has a High Basketball IQ, can Make His Own Shot and is Very Athletic.

I'm a little more interested in his partner Jim Watson from St Petersburg Missouri. Probably too thin to start next season but he is tall and we'll benefit from a season in the weigh room. He plays outside which is exactly what we want from a big. Has a great Euro Step and although he didn't shoot much in highschool, the 10 second video I saw proved he has a quick release with great ball rotation. He should easily eclipse .450 from 3. He also showed a tremendous motor in that clip.

Jim's probably a bit raw. It's really hard to get up 100 shots a day when you spend all your time on a raft.

[boatcapt]

But can Mark Twain shoot the trey?

Hahah...I'm sure there is an advanced stats that says he can!!! He's only 5'9", 145 lbs but in The System, size doesn't matter. I hear he has a High Basketball IQ, can Make His Own Shot and is Very Athletic.

I'm a little more interested in his partner Jim Watson from St Petersburg Missouri. Probably too thin to start next season but he is tall and we'll benefit from a season in the weigh room. He plays outside which is exactly what we want from a big. Has a great Euro Step and although he didn't shoot much in highschool, the 10 second video I saw proved he has a quick release with great ball rotation. He should easily eclipse .450 from 3. He also showed a tremendous motor in that clip.

[IUPbigINDIANS]

Fyi


The phrase "lies, damned lies, and statistics" is a popular adage describing the persuasive power of statistics to mislead, often attributed to 19th-century British Prime Minister Benjamin Disraeli
. Although popularized by Mark Twain, who credited Disraeli, the phrase has never been found in Disraeli’s works.
University of York +3
Key Aspects of the Quote:

• Attribution: While strongly associated with Benjamin Disraeli (Lord Beaconsfield), the earliest citations in the 1890s attribute it to others, including British statesman Arthur James Balfour or simply "some wit".
• Meaning: The phrase suggests a ranking of untruths, where statistics are considered the most deceptive form of falsehood, often used to obscure the truth.
• Origin: The earliest known printed version similar to this appeared in 1891, citing "three kinds of falsehood: the first is a 'fib,' the second is a downright lie, and the third and most aggravated is statistics".
• Variations: Similar phrases have been used over time, such as "liars, damned liars, and expert witnesses".

But can Mark Twain shoot the trey?

[Columbuseer]

Fyi


The phrase "lies, damned lies, and statistics" is a popular adage describing the persuasive power of statistics to mislead, often attributed to 19th-century British Prime Minister Benjamin Disraeli
. Although popularized by Mark Twain, who credited Disraeli, the phrase has never been found in Disraeli’s works.
University of York +3
Key Aspects of the Quote:

• Attribution: While strongly associated with Benjamin Disraeli (Lord Beaconsfield), the earliest citations in the 1890s attribute it to others, including British statesman Arthur James Balfour or simply "some wit".
• Meaning: The phrase suggests a ranking of untruths, where statistics are considered the most deceptive form of falsehood, often used to obscure the truth.
• Origin: The earliest known printed version similar to this appeared in 1891, citing "three kinds of falsehood: the first is a 'fib,' the second is a downright lie, and the third and most aggravated is statistics".
• Variations: Similar phrases have been used over time, such as "liars, damned liars, and expert witnesses".

[boatcapt]

Some sage observations:

You can prove anything with statistics, except the truth - George Canning

There are three types of lies, lies, damn lies and statistics - Mark Twain

If the statistics don't support your argument, you are asking the question the wrong way. - CC Savage

The truth is inversely proportional to the number of statistics used to prove it. - Unknown

The first casualty of statistics is the truth. - Unknown

[Columbuseer]

True Shooting %
I was curious about the true shooting % (which factors in FG, 3FG, and FT) and three-point % for WLU players this season.

In any process, there are two general types of variation - common cause and special cause.
- Common cause variation - this is variation that is inherent in any process and quite resistant to change unless one changes the process entirely.
- Special cause variation - these are areas that one can affect with process improvement or quality control measures.

Some examples sources of common cause variation in the basketball shooting process are:
- venue characteristics - lighting, shooting background, home vs away, crowd noise, etc.
- opponent defensive skill, height, quickness, etc.
- 2019 increase in the three-point line distance that has reduced 3 point %.

Some examples of potential special cause variation are:
- fatigue due to road trip, or during the game
- injury
- shooting mechanics
- shot selection
- Distance of opponent from the shooter when the ball is released.


Rather than look at season averages, it may be useful to explore variation from game to game, which keeps a few horrendous shooting nights from masking the view of individual shooting prowess. For example, if one player shoots 80% in game 1 and 40% in Game 2, the game to game average is 60%.

For each game, the sample includes all players that played at least 2 minutes and attempted at least 2 FGs in a game.
For this season, WLU had 8 players whose game-to-game true shooting percentage was over 59%. They had 12 players with 54.4% or greater true shooting percentage.
The D1 90th percentile is 58.9%.

Three-Point Shooting %
1.If one includes only games where a player shot > 40% 3-pt shooting % and attempted at least 2 3FGA per game, one finds that five players had 13 or more games (two had 15 games) where their game to game average was over 40%. Some were much higher!

2. If one looks at game-to-game averages where a player attempted at least two 3-pt FGA, regardless of 3FG%, WLU had 3 players who averaged over 41% 3FG and 8 players averaging over 35%.


The data seems to indicate that the issue is consistency, not inability to shoot the 3FG. This is confirmed by the relatively high standard deviation, which is also obvious to the fans who have seen hot and cold shooting games.

The open question is what areas of the process variation is controllable (special cause variation) and how much is inherent in the process (common cause variation)?

-

[Columbuseer]

I don't disagree that WLU has to get back to finding the under-recruited gym rat kids. Here's my take on why:

With so many branches of Crutch's coaching tree out there now, any big, long, athletic kid who wants to play Crutchball will have a lot of options for where to go to do so. And most of those options are more attractive than being perched on a hilltop in middle-of-nowhere WV. Ft. Lauderdale is destination #1. But you can go to Indy if you're a D1 body. You can go to Erie where there's actually a city and, you know, a gas station. You can even go down to Beaufort, SC if you want the warm weather but a small town.

When Crutch started this, he was the only one playing this way, so a kid who wanted to play this way chose WLU. That's how you end up with studs like Bonifant, Cedric Harris, Bryce Butler, etc. recruited to WLU. But does anyone really believe that the next kid with Bonifant's ability isn't going to be in Ft. Lauderdale, Indy, Erie, or elsewhere this time around?

When Crutch started this, he had to recruit the under-recruited gym rat kids just to get people willing to play. WLU might have to full-circle go back to that simply because the on-the-radar kids are heading to Ft. Lauderdale & Erie, so WLU has to get back to finding the under-the-radar kids (need more Dalton Bolon, Luke Dyer types again). Might be a full circle moment for the program because WLU once again faces a recruiting challenge (just of a different nature this time around).

Good points. I would respectivefully disagree about lack of gym rats. There are as many gym rats on this team as in past years. That is a big factor in wlu deciding who to offer. Casual players need not apply even if they are talented.

Another thing that has changed since Crutch left is N.I.L. it is in D2. Ever wonder why kayser changed his commitment from wl to nova se, even though he had visited both before committing to wlu?
if folks really want to overcome geographical disadvantages of wlu, better get the checkbook out for N.I.L.

I went to erie. I liked the game plan of vu. Slow the game down on offense and defense. Wlu was just a second early or late in flashing to the open area of the zone at the foul line. VU closed out and elevated like a d1 team when defending the three. Wlu will need to work on getting the three off faster- requires body and hand position in ready position and a perfect pass to waiting shooter.

wlu graduates one player. Future is bright. Like most setbacks, one often learns more than from successes. It was a good learning experience for the team.

[boatcapt]

I don't disagree that WLU has to get back to finding the under-recruited gym rat kids. Here's my take on why:

With so many branches of Crutch's coaching tree out there now, any big, long, athletic kid who wants to play Crutchball will have a lot of options for where to go to do so. And most of those options are more attractive than being perched on a hilltop in middle-of-nowhere WV. Ft. Lauderdale is destination #1. But you can go to Indy if you're a D1 body. You can go to Erie where there's actually a city and, you know, a gas station. You can even go down to Beaufort, SC if you want the warm weather but a small town.

When Crutch started this, he was the only one playing this way, so a kid who wanted to play this way chose WLU. That's how you end up with studs like Bonifant, Cedric Harris, Bryce Butler, etc. recruited to WLU. But does anyone really believe that the next kid with Bonifant's ability isn't going to be in Ft. Lauderdale, Indy, Erie, or elsewhere this time around?

When Crutch started this, he had to recruit the under-recruited gym rat kids just to get people willing to play. WLU might have to full-circle go back to that simply because the on-the-radar kids are heading to Ft. Lauderdale & Erie, so WLU has to get back to finding the under-the-radar kids (need more Dalton Bolon, Luke Dyer types again). Might be a full circle moment for the program because WLU once again faces a recruiting challenge (just of a different nature this time around).

It really depends on what the kid wants. Coming out of HS (many years ago), a place like South FL held no attraction for me. But every kid is different.

Not saying you can't have any "athletes," just that those characteristics should not be your sole focus when building the team. Give me a team equal parts gym rat/hate to lose/dive on the floor for everything guys, athletes that equally adept gliding down the lane as they are knocking down short jumpers, 3 point snipers and a couple of bigs that can sweep the boards inside/make the right outlet pass/and who is adept at getting put backs inside. And give me a solid assist first point guard that knows when to run and when not to run and gets us into the correct play at the correct time

WLU had two seniors on the roster this year but if recent history is a guide we'll lose 3 or 4 others. Given the shape of this team, I want to see at least 3 being the hate-to-lise/gym rat at least one spot-up 3 point shooter and a legit assist first point guard.