West Liberty Hilltopper Basketball

[boatcapt]

Regardless of style, many teams find it hard to advance in the Elite 8 on a regular basis. In support of this assertion, the statistics below reveal how few teams reach the Elite 8 more than once, much less going to the Final Four. Looking at last 10 years of Elite 8, there are 80 slots for teams (10 years x 8 teams),
1. Only 13 teams made the Elite 8 more than once. West Liberty is #1 with 6 appearances. For 45 teams it was their only appearance during the decade.
2. Of the 40 slots in the Final Four, only 4 teams have reached it more than once. West Liberty is tied for first (with now D1 Bellarmine) with 4 appearance. So WLU made the Final Four 60% of the time.
3. Of the 20 slots in the Finals, only one team has reached it more than once - NWMSU with 3 appearances (and 3 victories). West Liberty is in a 17-way tie for second with one appearance LOL.

The above stats indicate how hard it is to reach the Elite 8, regardless of style.

IMHO, regardless of style, a team needs:
1. At least 3 players who are high D1-level players, for it is possible that you will encounter a team who has such players as part of a once in a lifetime team who is making their first and likely last appearance in the Elite 8. When you have both teams with excellent coaches and players who are good fits for their respective styles, there is no secret "auxiliary style" that will magically ensure a victory. Obviously, NWMSU does not need an auxiliary style, as their points per possession is comparable to WLU, which is much higher than other styles.
2. High level of execution in their chosen style in all 3 Elite 8 games.
3. Players who are an excellent fit for their chosen style.
4. Favorable matchups. One team may have one player who is a matchup nightmare. The seeding may place that team against a better matchup, that eliminates them.
5. Opponent has a a uncharacteristically poor game.

IMHO NWMSU has put together incredibly talented players who execute their style to perfection, with uncharacteristically high discipline. They get high marks on items 1, 2, and 3 above.

One should not discount the difficulty in winning the regional. Seeding is done regionally, not nationally. IUP, Mercyhurst, VA State, Winston Salem State, Fairmont and Charleston are very strong teams nationally. In fact, Mercyhurst came the closest to defeating NWMSU two years ago in the Elite 8.

The stats about WLU's E8+ "success"...but lack of a NC...proves my point. They are the most successful team in DII to NOT win a NC...That is NOT what I want to be known for.

You point out NWMSU being successful with their chosen "style" playing it at a very efficient level and turning that into THREE NC's. WLU plays their chosen "style" at an equally efficient level and has turned it into ZERO NC's. IMHO, there is very little increased efficiency that can be rung out of our current style. So we have three options:

1. HOPE we go on a heater at the right time.
2. HOPE we don't meet the top seeded team in the E8 AND hope another team can nock them out before we meet them.
3. Try and increase the efficiency of our style from 95 to 100, either by practicing harder OR bring in 3 high D1-level players, and HOPE that is enough.

As one of my coaches said back in the day, HOPE is for losers who failed to prepare to win.

[Columbuseer]

Regardless of style, many teams find it hard to advance in the Elite 8 on a regular basis. In support of this assertion, the statistics below reveal how few teams reach the Elite 8 more than once, much less going to the Final Four. Looking at last 10 years of Elite 8, there are 80 slots for teams (10 years x 8 teams),
1. Only 13 teams made the Elite 8 more than once. West Liberty is #1 with 6 appearances. For 45 teams it was their only appearance during the decade.
2. Of the 40 slots in the Final Four, only 4 teams have reached it more than once. West Liberty is tied for first (with now D1 Bellarmine) with 4 appearance. So WLU made the Final Four 60% of the time.
3. Of the 20 slots in the Finals, only one team has reached it more than once - NWMSU with 3 appearances (and 3 victories). West Liberty is in a 17-way tie for second with one appearance LOL.

The above stats indicate how hard it is to reach the Elite 8, regardless of style.

IMHO, regardless of style, a team needs:
1. At least 3 players who are high D1-level players, for it is possible that you will encounter a team who has such players as part of a once in a lifetime team who is making their first and likely last appearance in the Elite 8. When you have both teams with excellent coaches and players who are good fits for their respective styles, there is no secret "auxiliary style" that will magically ensure a victory. Obviously, NWMSU does not need an auxiliary style, as their points per possession is comparable to WLU, which is much higher than other styles.
2. High level of execution in their chosen style in all 3 Elite 8 games.
3. Players who are an excellent fit for their chosen style.
4. Favorable matchups. One team may have one player who is a matchup nightmare. The seeding may place that team against a better matchup, that eliminates them.
5. Opponent has a a uncharacteristically poor game.

IMHO NWMSU has put together incredibly talented players who execute their style to perfection, with uncharacteristically high discipline. They get high marks on items 1, 2, and 3 above.

One should not discount the difficulty in winning the regional. Seeding is done regionally, not nationally. IUP, Mercyhurst, VA State, Winston Salem State, Fairmont and Charleston are very strong teams nationally. In fact, Mercyhurst came the closest to defeating NWMSU two years ago in the Elite 8.

[boatcapt]

My guess is that they will make no changes to their offense, which allows back to basket moves as long as the ball does not stick. For example, Butler has great footwork with back to basket with a great jump hook and is also an outside threat and rim run threat. But it is in the context of the 5 out motion offense. Viktor has similar skill set but is bigger. He may command a double team when he goes inside.

My guess is that the wlu offense was a major factor in wlu landing him. Anxious to see how quickly he adjusts. High basketball IQ and comp science major so he will understand its advantages and likely adapt very quickly.

If he is just treated like a tall guard, we will have the same problems we have had for the last 17 years. VERY good regular season team that wins MEC Conf/Tourney crown most years...Good NCAA tourney team that most years will be in/win a regional crown but will hit a wall in the E8.

When you are operating a particular "style" at such a high efficiency level like WLU is, there is not much room for improvement. I have a tractor. It is a very nice tractor and I've done quite a bit to it to make it the best tractor it can be. But it is never going to be capable of working a 1000 acre farm. I love that tractor and get everything out of it that I can, but it has it's limitations and I need to accept that I can't work a 1000 acre farm with it. If I ever want to buy that 1000 acre farm, I'm going to need to buy a bigger tractor even though I might not love it as much as my current MF 135.

[Columbuseer]

It will depend on how they use him...Will he be used 100% as a "tall guard" working exclusively to get a 3 try or drive to the hole or will WLU take full advantage of his skill set by incorporating a few "back to the basket" inside sets?

My guess is that they will make no changes to their offense, which allows back to basket moves as long as the ball does not stick. For example, Butler has great footwork with back to basket with a great jump hook and is also an outside threat and rim run threat. But it is in the context of the 5 out motion offense. Viktor has similar skill set but is bigger. He may command a double team when he goes inside.

My guess is that the wlu offense was a major factor in wlu landing him. Anxious to see how quickly he adjusts. High basketball IQ and comp science major so he will understand its advantages and likely adapt very quickly.

[boatcapt]

FYI
I found these highlights of Viktor Kovacevic'.
He has good back to the basket moves in the low post, which one would probably expect in a 6-8 player.
However, he is very comfortable in the open court and can make rim runs off of spin moves at speed in the open court.
Great mechanics on his shot, as he hit nearly 50% from three.
Here are his highlights (#10) from mid-season 2021.

Very unusual to see complete skill set and understanding of the game in a 6-8 guy in D2. I don't think we have had a player like that at West Liberty before.
Hopefully, we can entice similar players in the future from Serbia to play for West Liberty.

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=qoAW1C6zzHs

In addition, Truman State was a talented, tall team that was expected to make a deep Elite 8 run,, but got upset by Flagler in first Elite 8 game. Viktor scored 34 points against them and defended their talented bigs in the low post quite well. Quincy lost in OT.

It will depend on how they use him...Will he be used 100% as a "tall guard" working exclusively to get a 3 try or drive to the hole or will WLU take full advantage of his skill set by incorporating a few "back to the basket" inside sets?

[Columbuseer]

FYI
I found these highlights of Viktor Kovacevic'.
He has good back to the basket moves in the low post, which one would probably expect in a 6-8 player.
However, he is very comfortable in the open court and can make rim runs off of spin moves at speed in the open court.
Great mechanics on his shot, as he hit nearly 50% from three.
Here are his highlights (#10) from mid-season 2021.

Very unusual to see complete skill set and understanding of the game in a 6-8 guy in D2. I don't think we have had a player like that at West Liberty before.
Hopefully, we can entice similar players in the future from Serbia to play for West Liberty.

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=qoAW1C6zzHs

In addition, Truman State was a talented, tall team that was expected to make a deep Elite 8 run,, but got upset by Flagler in first Elite 8 game. Viktor scored 34 points against them and defended their talented bigs in the low post quite well. Quincy lost in OT.

[boatcapt]

Good points. I am confident that opponents in tourney try to reduce the number of possessions against wlu by:

• Limiting their turnovers
• Avoiding bad or rushed shots
• Limiting wlu fast breaks

Provided you can keep the score close, it can be a winning strategy. But if you are behind double digits with under 10 mins to play, opponents have to play faster, which accelerates their fatigue. Hillsdale was example of a great team who followed this strategy, but fell behind and had to play faster.

Better teams are more capable of doing what you point out and as you progress in the tourney, you face better and better teams. When you face that team that has your number and can stop what you did all during the regular season and up to that point in the tourney, you better have an answer or you will lose.

WLU needs to decide if they are happy being a regular E8 partisipant who hopes they get on a roll OR that can avoid the most dominent team until the NC game, or are they going to adapt.

[Columbuseer]

Yes, WLU's scoring goes down dramatically in the NCAA tourney, but there is also a decrease in scoring by WLU's opponents. Over the same period of time, WLU averaged giving up 84.7 PPG during the regular season. In NCAA games that WLU has won, they average giving up 74.6. In the two wins versus PSAC teams, WLU averaged scoring 95.5 PPG

Most coaches build their teams for regular season success and perhaps conference tourney success. Kind of like the PSAC of old were mastadons patrolled the key and teams struggled to score 60 points. WLU showed these teams that if they wanted to compete for NCAA tourney success, they needed to change and adapt...and they did. WLU has developed a system that is VERY successful in the regular season and pretty successful in the NCAA Tourney. But to get over the NCAA Tourney hump so to speak and win a NC, the team needs to adapt and be built to compete in March when scores come down and defenses become more capable of stopping what we do.

Good points. I am confident that opponents in tourney try to reduce the number of possessions against wlu by:

• Limiting their turnovers
• Avoiding bad or rushed shots
• Limiting wlu fast breaks

Provided you can keep the score close, it can be a winning strategy. But if you are behind double digits with under 10 mins to play, opponents have to play faster, which accelerates their fatigue. Hillsdale was example of a great team who followed this strategy, but fell behind and had to play faster.

[boatcapt]

If that 14-15 team had Daddy Ugbede it would have been WL in the national title game instead of IUP.

The roadblock seems to be once you get to those elite teams ... you aren't scoring 130 ppg.

When you look at recent WL losses in March:

14-15 (IUP) - WL scored 74 points
15-16 (LM) - WL scored 102 but still lost
16-17 (WJ) - WL scored 95 but still lost (albeit to an MEC team)
17-18 (Ship) - WL scored 66 points and gave up 98
18-19 (Mercyhurst) - WL scored 70 points
19-20 - No Tournament
20-21 (NWMT) - WL scored 77 points


So, add it up and in those losses WL is scoring (on average) 80.6 ppg -- nearly, what 25 ppg less than its typical season average. In the three losses versus PSAC teams, the average dropped to 70.0 ppg.

Yes, WLU's scoring goes down dramatically in the NCAA tourney, but there is also a decrease in scoring by WLU's opponents. Over the same period of time, WLU averaged giving up 84.7 PPG during the regular season. In NCAA games that WLU has won, they average giving up 74.6. In the two wins versus PSAC teams, WLU averaged scoring 95.5 PPG

Most coaches build their teams for regular season success and perhaps conference tourney success. Kind of like the PSAC of old were mastadons patrolled the key and teams struggled to score 60 points. WLU showed these teams that if they wanted to compete for NCAA tourney success, they needed to change and adapt...and they did. WLU has developed a system that is VERY successful in the regular season and pretty successful in the NCAA Tourney. But to get over the NCAA Tourney hump so to speak and win a NC, the team needs to adapt and be built to compete in March when scores come down and defenses become more capable of stopping what we do.

[Columbuseer]

It is really hard to win a regional as well as elite 8 game, regardless of the style one plays. Elite teams are elite for a reason. D2 seeding is done regionally, so you might have a #1 versus #2 in the nation face each other in regional ( condolences to northern state who was likely #2 in nation).

• Great coaches are the rule not the exception. Look at teams wlu lost to in 2015 thru 2021 - great coaches every one and their players follow instructions.
• The athletes are elite. Until recently, wlu had typically at most one elite athlete, ala Dan monteroso who played wr at purdue. They had many great, complete basketball players but not elite pure athletes. these elite teams had several players who were mid to high d1 level athletes.
  • 2016 lm was loaded with 3 elite players. 6-9 Terry signed with Phoenix suns after dominating NBA summer league (famous for viral video of him leaping over a guy). Lm often has someone in running for national player of year.
  • 2017 wj had Highsmith who played for 76ers, Moseh and Boswell.
  • 2018 had sleva, who plays in Europe and tbt and great 3 pt shooters - killer combo
  • 2019 had 2 awesome bigs and we shot poorly.
  • 2021 - nwmsu had great positionless offense and at least 3 high d1 athletes and national player of year. Lost to Duke by 6. Generally acknowledged they are at a whole other level from everyone else. Lowest elite 8 winning margin against wlu and we did not have will yoakum ( some consolation, huh? Lol). Just like wlu, they don't change what they do for any team.

Data analytics favor the wlu and nwmsu style. In the last three years, wlu is getting more and better pure athletes, who are just as complete players as those in the past.
WLU now has legitimate rim runners who can hit the three. They are winning now when threes are not falling.

The great athletes are now at least 8 deep on wlu roster.

imho, a big "inside only" guy who is capable of defending an elite big is not going to sit on the bench as Mr. Contingency, when he can star in traditional offenses at other schools.
He also clogs up the middle which disrupts the offense wlu runs. wlu is not going to add more offenses, for that is not the root cause for losing to elite teams. Getting better athletes, avoiding hero ball and not letting the ball stick are the keys.

[IUPbigINDIANS]

Fact that WLU would not even entertain for a moment having a player like this on their roster speaks volumes about the "completeness" of WLU's game.

WLU plays at a very high level within their style niche. This niche is usually enough to get them through the MEC at the top of the conference and periodically through to the Regional Champ game. But there does seem to be a wall that they can't get over.

If that 14-15 team had Daddy Ugbede it would have been WL in the national title game instead of IUP.

The roadblock seems to be once you get to those elite teams ... you aren't scoring 130 ppg.

When you look at recent WL losses in March:

14-15 (IUP) - WL scored 74 points
15-16 (LM) - WL scored 102 but still lost
16-17 (WJ) - WL scored 95 but still lost (albeit to an MEC team)
17-18 (Ship) - WL scored 66 points and gave up 98
18-19 (Mercyhurst) - WL scored 70 points
19-20 - No Tournament
20-21 (NWMT) - WL scored 77 points


So, add it up and in those losses WL is scoring (on average) 80.6 ppg -- nearly, what 25 ppg less than its typical season average. In the three losses versus PSAC teams, the average dropped to 70.0 ppg.

[boatcapt]

I agree that he would not play much in wlu system. Wlu only recruits complete players who are great shooters.
Based on his stats,

• No 3 point threat.
• assist to turnover ratio of 0.4
• average fouls of 3+ while playing only 19 mins
• fouled out 5 of the 27 games
• Don't know if he could play at wlu pace

For other teams playing more traditional positions , he would be a great fit. Skill set seemed to be unbalanced, skewed toward inside offensive gane.

Every team strives to get players who fit their philosophy.

Fact that WLU would not even entertain for a moment having a player like this on their roster speaks volumes about the "completeness" of WLU's game.

WLU plays at a very high level within their style niche. This niche is usually enough to get them through the MEC at the top of the conference and periodically through to the Regional Champ game. But there does seem to be a wall that they can't get over.

[Columbuseer]

All true. But he didn't shoot the 3 so apparently, WLU would not have wanted him...and if he did somehow make it onto the team, he'd never play because he doesn't "stretch the floor."

I agree that he would not play much in wlu system. Wlu only recruits complete players who are great shooters.
Based on his stats,

• No 3 point threat.
• assist to turnover ratio of 0.4
• average fouls of 3+ while playing only 19 mins
• fouled out 5 of the 27 games
• Don't know if he could play at wlu pace

For other teams playing more traditional positions , he would be a great fit. Skill set seemed to be unbalanced, skewed toward inside offensive gane.

Every team strives to get players who fit their philosophy.

[IUPbigINDIANS]

All true. But he didn't shoot the 3 so apparently, WLU would not have wanted him...and if he did somehow make it onto the team, he'd never play because he doesn't "stretch the floor."

Lol

[boatcapt]

Daddy Ugbede was an incredibly skilled offensive player. Biggest hands I've ever seen. He was so powerful and agile ... just about impossible to guard. His spin moves would draw so many fouls ... and he was an incredible FT shooter for a post player.

His knock was staying on the floor. Joe had to really watch how he played him because of his constant foul trouble. If they could have got 34 mpg out of him his stats would have been insane. He had a great career here.

All true. But he didn't shoot the 3 so apparently, WLU would not have wanted him...and if he did somehow make it onto the team, he'd never play because he doesn't "stretch the floor."