West Liberty Hilltopper Basketball

[Columbuseer]

Has WL turned the corner against Ohio Dominican? Have the new players finally internalized the need for high effort, constant player movement and ball movement on offense?

The question is: can WL play at this level every night? Concord will be a good test, for they have a history of defeating us on their home court.

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Recap of Oh Dominican Game, statistically - novelette version

Ohio Dominican's record had many narrow losses, including two to top 25 Ashland and Indianapolis.

WL led 58-20 at the half and won by 44, 105-61. WL is now #2 in scoring at 103.8 behind (guess who) Nova Southeastern at 109.9.

WL showed the longest sustained effort in playing "West Liberty style" basketball of the entire season.
It appeared that the game has slowed down for Hazelbaker and Allessandro, and they are able to play without having to think so much about what to do and where to go. They negated an excellent rebounder and scorer for OhDom without committing fouls.

There was excellent ball movement and much fewer questionable one-on-one dribble drives. Almost 80% of the shots were high quality shots that were neither contested, off-balance, difficult nor rushed shots. WL had 20 assists and only 10 turnovers. This 2.00 Assist to turnover ratio is good for a PG, much less an entire team!

Bryce Butler continues to make excellent decisions with the basketball and the game is slowing down for him too as he is getting more comfortable.
Yoakum and Dyer took excellent shots also.

The shot selection of Bolon, Robinson III and McKinney continue to improve, but they have not reached their ceiling yet, which is scary. They are really dangerous when the floor is spread to cover the three-point shot.

Although Boswell is going through a temporary shooting slump, he creates chaos on the floor in ways that don't show up in the box score.

Their offensive rebounding becomes ever more dominant as fatigue starts to set in on the opponent. WL had 20 offensive rebounds to 8 for OHDom. They are 7th in the nation in offensive rebounding.

The team is playing more instinctively on the press. With their increased athletic ability this year, WL is leading the nation in steals per game at 13.
WL had 18 steals against OhDom and forced a total of 21 turnovers, while Oh Dom only had 12 assists (a .57 assist to turnover ratio speaks to the stifling defense of WL). WL has four players in the top 176 nationally in steals, led by Luke Dyer at #20, followed by Patrick Robinson III, Preston Boswell, and Malik McKinney. Malik's steals have really increased in recent games as he has gotten more comfortable.

The two platoons are getting closer to parity in their play and their effort is very, very high.

WL had an incredible 1.43 points per possession, which is unreal (last year WL led nation with 1.25).

[IUPbigINDIANS]

Especially last year, when the battle was for second place as NW MSU was at another level from everyone else.

They are this year, too.

[Columbuseer]

Seeding does matter once you get past Region.

Especially last year, when the battle was for second place as NW MSU was at another level from everyone else.

[boatcapt]

Not much difference unless the wl style is a bad matchup. Lose some bragging rights if u lose in 1st round versus finals. Of course that cuts both ways.

I do wonder if mercyhurst would have made it to the final four, had they not drawn NW MSU in first round. Even so, They still gave them their best game.

Have not looked at data but often I sense that wl shoots a higher % of threes in first night versus next round.

Seeding does matter once you get past Region.

[IUPbigINDIANS]

Don't forget warming up to "Lady in Red."

I will never, ever forget that moment. Unfortunately.

[IUPalum]

Don't forget warming up to "Lady in Red."

[IUPbigINDIANS]

Not much difference unless the wl style is a bad matchup. Lose some bragging rights if u lose in 1st round versus finals. Of course that cuts both ways.

I do wonder if mercyhurst would have made it to the final four, had they not drawn NW MSU in first round. Even so, They still gave them their best game.

Have not looked at data but often I sense that wl shoots a higher % of threes in first night versus next round.

I, too, wonder if IUP hadn't got Mercyhurst for a fourth time in Round 2.

Freaking Fairmont had them beat in Round 1 and couldn't close the final 40 seconds. Still bitter. Lol. Mercyhurst is so annoying to play ... you want to avoid them at all costs.

That regional sucked for us. Building was dead. We had to play West Chester for a third time (and second time in 6 days) ... then got Mercyhurst for Round 4. I knew after the way IUP pounded them the week before they wouldn't do it again.

I watched all three of WL's games here. The first two were incredibly entertaining and thrilling endings. The last was ugly.

[Columbuseer]

What difference does one or two games make? The set up of the regional tournament creates a scenario where you play a difficult game in the first round most years. The Atlantic is a tough regional. IUP never technically even got out of the PSAC last year.

Not much difference unless the wl style is a bad matchup. Lose some bragging rights if u lose in 1st round versus finals. Of course that cuts both ways.

I do wonder if mercyhurst would have made it to the final four, had they not drawn NW MSU in first round. Even so, They still gave them their best game.

Have not looked at data but often I sense that wl shoots a higher % of threes in first night versus next round.

[boatcapt]

What difference does one or two games make? The set up of the regional tournament creates a scenario where you play a difficult game in the first round most years. The Atlantic is a tough regional. IUP never technically even got out of the PSAC last year.

Over the last 6 years (that as far back as I cared to look) the higher seeded team has a .694 winning %. But there have been a couple of first round upsets in the 1 v 8 and 2 v 7 games. In 2016 #8 Mercyhurst beat #1 WJU and in 2015 #7 Slippery Rock beat #2 Gannon.

[IUP24]

Good one boat! The wl style is so different I would imagine most top seeded teams would prefer to play them later rather than in first round, despite fact one has less time to prepare.

What difference does one or two games make? The set up of the regional tournament creates a scenario where you play a difficult game in the first round most years. The Atlantic is a tough regional. IUP never technically even got out of the PSAC last year.

[Columbuseer]

If they can't be a #1, I'd almost rather see them as a 7 or an 8. An immediate chance to steal the #1 or #2 side of the bracket in the first round!

Good one boat! The wl style is so different I would imagine most top seeded teams would prefer to play them later rather than in first round, despite fact one has less time to prepare.

[boatcapt]

No doubt, Columbus. WLU is going to have to keep playing, gelling, and winning to get to March. But their couple of early-season slips could mean they enter March with a lower seed than usual, and I doubt anyone wants to see them show up as, say, a 5 or 6 seed in their first round game!

If they can't be a #1, I'd almost rather see them as a 7 or an 8. An immediate chance to steal the #1 or #2 side of the bracket in the first round!

[boatcapt]

Right. But they had better run the table. I would guess they would only sit atop the Region in March if they're undefeated and everybody else has multiple losses. With a schedule like that, if they happen to lose one of their East games going forward (Ship, ESU, Shep, Kutz), I would think they drop precipitously. That was often the reason why Crutch failed to host in the years he failed to host. 1. Easy schedule; 2. One or two unexpected losses in the conference; 3. Someone else reasonably strong (IUP, ESU, WJU) emerged to snatch the top spot. My money is on us having to travel to Indiana (not Philly) for Regionals this year.

Really only one time since 2011 can anyone claim that the NCAA tried to "discipline" WLU for playing a weak schedule...That was 2018 when they lost 3 but were seeded behind a 4 loss and two 5 loss teams. Every other year, WLU was seeded right were their W/L record says they should have been seeded. Last year four loss WLU was seeded #2 behind 2 loss IUP, 2017 3 loss WLU was seeded behind a 3 and 2 loss team, 2016 3 loss WLU was seeded #2 behind another 3 loss team, 2015 3 loss WLU was seeded #1, 2014 3 loss WLU was seeded #2 behind a 1 loss team, and 2011-2013, WLU was seeded #1.

I would say there is far more evidence that the main predictor of were a team is going to be seeded in the NCAA tourney is W/L relative to other teams and NOT SOS. I would surmise that the selection committee more often than not uses SOS as a tie breaker among teams with the same number of losses. Soooooooooooo...As I've said all along, rule #1 in scheduling is don't schedule a team you believe you might lose to!!!! That possible loss will hurt you more at NCAA tourney seeding time than any advantage you think you gain in being "tougher" in the playoffs.

[boatcapt]

Easy there. We'll see. I'd guess IUP loses 3-4 games the rest of the way. I'm projecting them now at 4-5 losses. That won't be good enough to host.

WCU won't run the table. The East will be brutal. But, max they lose the rest of the way is 2-3 games.

If they stay healthy, my money is on WCU hosting.

According the wisdom on this board, the only way WCU could possibly host with 2-3 losses and their weak schedule would be for everyone else to have at least five losses!!!

[Scrub]

No doubt, Columbus. WLU is going to have to keep playing, gelling, and winning to get to March. But their couple of early-season slips could mean they enter March with a lower seed than usual, and I doubt anyone wants to see them show up as, say, a 5 or 6 seed in their first round game!