Regional Matchups and Predictions

[NWHoops]

While the Men's Regional thread has turned into a thrilling conversation regarding abbreviations of school names :), I thought this might be a good place to discuss matchups and predictions.

As for NW v. Mankato, I think Mankato will give NW all we want in the first round. I'm sure Mankato will be pumped to try to get vengeance against Witthus for leaving but NW has been getting everyone's best shot every night this year (exhibit A would be Southern who plays like a different team against us than they do in any other matchup).

I think everyone knows about NW but would be interested to hear from the Mankato group what they see in their team as keys to success- matchups, key players, etc.

[laker]

Re: Regional Matchups and Predictions

Start with the two main scorers- Brown and Krieger. Throughout the season they have been pretty consistent in putting the ball through the hoop. Harper's numbers aren't as impressive, but he is a guy who does the little things well. Kirksey (not the one that was with JFK on PT-109) and Kendrix have a lot of ability but at times do some puzzling things.

Anderson and Nixon come in off of the bench. Kreur gets some minutes inside and Asche is tall but is more of a three point shooter.

The Mavs have given Northern all that they wanted in the two losses. They have also lost twice to St Cloud and split the series with Southwest. Do they have anyone who can stop Pitts one on one? I don't think so, but if he is slowed up it should help. Will they be more fired up because Witthus is in an opposing uniform? I'd rather have them focus on trying to win the game. Tough row to hoe, especially in that gym, but it is possible.

[MisterWizard]

[MStateMaverick]

Re: Regional Matchups and Predictions

If the same MSU team shows up that played Northern very close on two occasions, then there is some chance for them to be successful. Obviously they are the major underdog, but you never know.

[NWHoops]

Re: Regional Matchups and Predictions

I have read about the consistency issues with Mankato. If that's the case, then I think NW defense is the key to this game and not what NW does on the offensive end. NW will make your offense very inconsistent. Contrary to what some say, defense does require talent. It also requires hard work. I think the atmosphere last year got to NW offensively but it feeds them defensively. Hopefully they are better prepared for the environment, which is completely different than the larger regional venues at the Pentagon and at Mankato that NW has participated in previously.

I think there will be some tough matchups but I see NW pulling away late for a 5-10 point victory.

NW also lost their last home game on Senior Day to Southern, that also included snapping a 49 game home winning streak. That streaks not a fluke and it's hard for me to imagine them losing back to back at home after that streak.

For that reason, if NW makes the second round, I think they will be playing SMSU but I would prefer MSSU. I know that may not be a popular thought among NW fans but it is very hard for a team to beat another team 3 times in a season when they are evenly matched. I think NW will be ready for that matchup but not sure it will come to fruition.

[Stanger86]

Re: Regional Matchups and Predictions

Guess you can't handle multiple conversations going on at once. We would've had no problem going back to these discussions in the other thread. Oh well.

I think there's a chance MSU keeps it close (probably a better team than UIU was last year), but I don't see them pulling it out against Northwest. I'd love for SMSU to get a rematch against Northwest. I think this team has been on a mission all season long.

[Btech#3]

Re: Regional Matchups and Predictions

I'll weigh in on the Washburn/Northern State contest. I saw the first contest back in November between the two teams at MO West. It was the first game of the season for both teams. I believe Northern State had just come off an OT loss at Arizona St. in an "exhibition game" but it was Washburn's first game other than a couple of scrimmages against a couple of Jr. Colleges. This game was also Coach Ballard's first game at Washburn. I was very impressed with Northern State. They were very efficient offensively and they were really physical on the defensive end. Washburn was struggling to figure out how they wanted to play and looked kind of "clunky" offensively. I remember a tough defensive game with Northern State pulling away at the end and winning by 12. I felt like the game was closer than the final score. I think Northern State is the favorite based on the season records and being a conference champion but Washburn is really playing well. Their bench is stepping up and they are 9 deep with very little to no fall off when they go to their bench. Washburn is quicker and more athletic but Northern State is more powerful and the more physical team. Should be a great game and a contrast of styles. I think the game will come down to tempo and who can force the most turnovers. As a basketball "junkie", I think it will be alot of fun to watch. Washburn played well in the MIAA tourney but I believe there is still more upside in the tank for this team. Obviously, I am for Washburn but it will be a great game. Go Bods!

[NWHoops]

Re: Regional Matchups and Predictions

Guess you can't handle multiple conversations going on at once. We would've had no problem going back to these discussions in the other thread. Oh well.

I think there's a chance MSU keeps it close (probably a better team than UIU was last year), but I don't see them pulling it out against Northwest. I'd love for SMSU to get a rematch against Northwest. I think this team has been on a mission all season long.

No problem with multiple conversations, it's just that there haven't been multiple conversations for almost the last 2 pages of that thread.

SMSU is honestly the last team I want to play. I said the same thing last year. They are the closest in style and mindset to what NW does. Tough, defense first, etc.

[MrMustang]

Re: Regional Matchups and Predictions

as we have seen the last couple years, what refs you get can matter. I think the consensus is NSIC refs let them play more, call less fouls, and let the game be more physical.

How the teams adjust to the reffing will matter in these games.

My biggest fear is Carter Kirk and/or Turner Moen get a couple of quick fouls that would not have been called all season and we don't adjust accordingly and get behind the 8 ball.

I know Bigler has discussed this and told the team they have to be able to play a style according to how the game is called as you have 3 leagues of refs here and there are some differences.

This is true of all the teams so I am not saying something that is fair to all concerned, just it is always a lingering fear of mine we get Moen and kirk in foul trouble.

Last year we were able to play according to the flow of the games and adjust and we almost pulled off the upset.

[MrMustang]

Re: Regional Matchups and Predictions

Winners - Round 1

NW MO
SMSU
Northern
Nazarene

all 4 games will be really good, but I do think the game with the best chance of a blowout is Northern State. I am not confident except for Northern. Otherwise nothing would surprise me.

I know nothing about Nazarene. For all I know they are overrated despite being 27-2 or they might be the real deal.

[NSU4LIFE]

Re: Regional Matchups and Predictions

I'll weigh in on the Washburn/Northern State contest. I saw the first contest back in November between the two teams at MO West. It was the first game of the season for both teams. I believe Northern State had just come off an OT loss at Arizona St. in an "exhibition game" but it was Washburn's first game other than a couple of scrimmages against a couple of Jr. Colleges. This game was also Coach Ballard's first game at Washburn. I was very impressed with Northern State. They were very efficient offensively and they were really physical on the defensive end. Washburn was struggling to figure out how they wanted to play and looked kind of "clunky" offensively. I remember a tough defensive game with Northern State pulling away at the end and winning by 12. I felt like the game was closer than the final score. I think Northern State is the favorite based on the season records and being a conference champion but Washburn is really playing well. Their bench is stepping up and they are 9 deep with very little to no fall off when they go to their bench. Washburn is quicker and more athletic but Northern State is more powerful and the more physical team. Should be a great game and a contrast of styles. I think the game will come down to tempo and who can force the most turnovers. As a basketball "junkie", I think it will be alot of fun to watch. Washburn played well in the MIAA tourney but I believe there is still more upside in the tank for this team. Obviously, I am for Washburn but it will be a great game. Go Bods!

We led by 22 halfway through the second half if I recall, the lead shrunk when the bench got it, so, we didn't pull away, Washburn actually made it look closer than it was. It was also a point where we had Decker in there thinking he'd be a guy that should be getting a lot of minutes. I'm not trying to be arrogant, but I remember saying how poorly we were playing and couldn't believe the score. But, as you said, that was long ago.

[NSU4LIFE]

Re: Regional Matchups and Predictions

Winners - Round 1

NW MO
SMSU
Northern
Nazarene

all 4 games will be really good, but I do think the game with the best chance of a blowout is Northern State. I am not confident except for Northern. Otherwise nothing would surprise me.

I know nothing about Nazarene. For all I know they are overrated despite being 27-2 or they might be the real deal.

After watching Naz in their conference championship game , I'd be shocked or St. CLOUD would have to play very poorly to lose that one.

[MisterWizard]

Re: Regional Matchups and Predictions

December 8
Southern Nazarene 68,
At Oral Roberts U 60

Yes, the D1 Oral Roberts University.

The SoNaz boys can play. They will get up and down the court but could falter due to their defense, inexperience on this stage, or even a loss of composure if they find themselves down by double digits.

[NWHoops]

Re: Regional Matchups and Predictions

December 8
Southern Nazarene 68,
At Oral Roberts U 60

Yes, the D1 Oral Roberts University.

The SoNaz boys can play. They will get up and down the court but could falter due to their defense, inexperience on this stage, or even a loss of composure if they find themselves down by double digits.

Southern also lost a game to something called Oklahoma Wesleyan but I don't think that is indicative of their team. From my limited time watching SoNaz, they are a poor man's version of Lincoln Memorial. They want to run and get in a fast-paced game but struggle when actual defense is played and they have to execute half court sets.

[NWFanatic]

Re: Regional Matchups and Predictions

1st round prediction
Northwest
MoSo
WU
Nazarene