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  • If I was a betting man, I'd put odds 5:3 we don't.
    Between two evils, I always pick the one I never tried before.

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    • Originally posted by Wide_Right View Post
      If I was a betting man, I'd put odds 5:3 we don't.
      I think you are right. The symptom's between Covid 19 and the regular flu are about the same. Flu shots are about 3 months away. 19 shots are a question mark. With student athletes starting to show up at universities and colleges we will find out which athletes have 19 and how quickly it spreads. I do believe fall camps will be cut short and the football season will not happen. I hope for the best for the student athletes this summer and fall.

      Comment


      • Hate to sound callous, but I think football season will move forward. Unless hospitalization and death rears it's ugly head, major college football will push through. Let a big name player ( a headline grabber) have serious issues or a couple of players pass away (praying for neither), then MAYBE the season will be shortened or cancelled. As for spectators, that's still up in the air. But healthy athletes who bounce back quickly or are asymptomatic, that's just enough for the big money train to proceed. Will FCS, DII, DIII, NAIA, and JUCO follow big money's lead, that is a good question...

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        • thousands die of the flu yearly(even with a vaccine) so I see no need to tie a vaccine to sports

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          • Originally posted by NWFanatic View Post
            thousands die of the flu yearly(even with a vaccine) so I see no need to tie a vaccine to sports
            THIS JUST IN...From the CDC:

            JUMP RIGHT TO THE LAST PARAGRAPH FOR THE PAYOFF!!!!

            The speed of transmission is an important point of difference between the two viruses. Influenza has a shorter median incubation period (the time from infection to appearance of symptoms) and a shorter serial interval (the time between successive cases) than COVID-19 virus. The serial interval for COVID-19 virus is estimated to be 5-6 days, while for influenza virus, the serial interval is 3 days. This means that influenza can spread faster than COVID-19.

            Further, transmission in the first 3-5 days of illness, or potentially pre-symptomatic transmission –transmission of the virus before the appearance of symptoms – is a major driver of transmission for influenza. In contrast, while we are learning that there are people who can shed COVID-19 virus 24-48 hours prior to symptom onset, at present, this does not appear to be a major driver of transmission.

            The reproductive number – the number of secondary infections generated from one infected individual – is understood to be between 2 and 2.5 for COVID-19 virus, higher than for influenza. However, estimates for both COVID-19 and influenza viruses are very context and time-specific, making direct comparisons more difficult.

            Children are important drivers of influenza virus transmission in the community. For COVID-19 virus, initial data indicates that children are less affected than adults and that clinical attack rates in the 0-19 age group are low. Further preliminary data from household transmission studies in China suggest that children are infected from adults, rather than vice versa.

            While the range of symptoms for the two viruses is similar, the fraction with severe disease appears to be different. For COVID-19, data to date suggest that 80% of infections are mild or asymptomatic, 15% are severe infection, requiring oxygen and 5% are critical infections, requiring ventilation. These fractions of severe and critical infection would be higher than what is observed for influenza infection.

            Those most at risk for severe influenza infection are children, pregnant women, elderly, those with underlying chronic medical conditions and those who are immunosuppressed. For COVID-19, our current understanding is that older age and underlying conditions increase the risk for severe infection.

            Mortality for COVID-19 appears higher than for influenza, especially seasonal influenza. While the true mortality of COVID-19 will take some time to fully understand, the data we have so far indicate that the crude mortality ratio (the number of reported deaths divided by the reported cases) is between 3-4%, the infection mortality rate (the number of reported deaths divided by the number of infections) will be lower. For seasonal influenza, mortality is usually well below 0.1%. However, mortality is to a large extent determined by access to and quality of health care.
            Last edited by WarriorVoice; 06-23-2020, 10:08 AM.

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            • Originally posted by WarriorVoice View Post

              snip
              It's an A/O comparison - but here are the numbers:

              Seasonal Flu (2020)
              Season: October 2019 - April 2020
              Duration: 5 mos
              Case Count (High Estimate): 52,000,000
              Death Count (High Estimate): 62,000

              COVID-19
              Season: February 2020 (first death) - June 2020* (present day)
              Duration: 4 mos
              Case Count: 2,400,157*
              Death Count: 122,877*

              *as of 11:55 AM CT 6/23/2020

              Source: CDC (seasonal flu), Worldometer (COVID-19)

              The nice thing is, our fatality rate has dropped significantly - however spikes in the death rate always lag behind spikes in case count by a couple weeks, so we'll have to see what happens moving forward.

              Comment


              • Given the characteristics of COVID, I just don't see how one can avoid at least one positive test every 2 or 3 weeks among 100+ players and staff. Social distancing seems to be inherently problematic in football. resulting quarantine of contacts would seem to derail a game for 14 days.

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                • Originally posted by SW_Mustang View Post

                  It's an A/O comparison - but here are the numbers:

                  Seasonal Flu (2020)
                  Season: October 2019 - April 2020
                  Duration: 5 mos
                  Case Count (High Estimate): 52,000,000
                  Death Count (High Estimate): 62,000

                  COVID-19
                  Season: February 2020 (first death) - June 2020* (present day)
                  Duration: 4 mos
                  Case Count: 2,400,157*
                  Death Count: 122,877*

                  *as of 11:55 AM CT 6/23/2020

                  Source: CDC (seasonal flu), Worldometer (COVID-19)

                  The nice thing is, our fatality rate has dropped significantly - however spikes in the death rate always lag behind spikes in case count by a couple weeks, so we'll have to see what happens moving forward.
                  Arkansas governor just said that 70% of deaths in the state are from people 65+. 40% of deaths in NY alone were nursing home infections. Not trying to diminish those deaths at all but to look at those numbers and act like this virus is killing otherwise healthy people is disingenuous. Antibody tests across the country from several major cities showed asymptomatic infections in the population 10-20x the rate of tested and confirmed infections. I understand administrators will want to be on the safe side when it comes to students and student athletes but this virus panic is being fueled by media hysteria. It is time to get on with life and let people decide for themselves the level of risk they want to take.

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                  • To quote the great Hamilton "Ham" Porter, " PLAAAAAAAAYYYY BAAAAALLLLLLLLL!!!!"
                    * 2019 NATIONAL CHAMPIONS *

                    * 2017 NATIONAL RUNNER-UP *

                    Comment


                    • Originally posted by codeblack View Post

                      Arkansas governor just said that 70% of deaths in the state are from people 65+. 40% of deaths in NY alone were nursing home infections. Not trying to diminish those deaths at all but to look at those numbers and act like this virus is killing otherwise healthy people is disingenuous. Antibody tests across the country from several major cities showed asymptomatic infections in the population 10-20x the rate of tested and confirmed infections. I understand administrators will want to be on the safe side when it comes to students and student athletes but this virus panic is being fueled by media hysteria. It is time to get on with life and let people decide for themselves the level of risk they want to take.
                      I was just sharing the hard numbers. COVID-19 has killed more people in a shorter period of time than the flu did this year. That being said, as you pointed out there is a lot more to the numbers than what can be determined on the surface. I'm not qualified to analyze or speculate on that data, that's why I said it's an apples-to-oranges comparison. I just wanted to get the correct numbers out there to at least show, like I said, that COVID-19 has killed more people than the flu in 2020.

                      In a "perfect" world, I would agree with you. We would all be responsible for ourselves and make our own choices based on what's best for us. My only problem with that line of thinking is that life doesn't work that way. Vulnerable people can't simply exit society on a moment's notice just so the rest of us can do as we please. Life is also too complex to boil it down to an over-simplification like that. There are way too many variables at play.

                      Now, that being said - do I agree with all the shutdowns and regulations? Not necessarily. I don't have anything to back this up, but I think our infrastructure (at least locally) has been reinforced to the point where we can start to slowly regain our normal lives back. Shutting everything down until the virus "goes away" is not a viable option, so there has to be a compromise. Have some people hijacked it for political gain? Possibly - but I don't pay attention to those angles because everything gets politicized these days.


                      Comment



                      • Major points:
                        1. If you get so ill you have to go to hospital, then chance of dying is 5 to 10 times more likely for people between 30 and 59.If you survive you are going to be staring at a huge medical bill.
                        One person spent 30 days in ICU ventilator, etc. - Bill was $1.1M. Hope folks have a good insurance plan, for patients often spend 10 days in hospital.
                        2. For the 30-39 group, a mortality rate of 0.2% seems insignificant. Would you fly, if there were a 0.2% chance of the plane crashing? (that would mean 88 crashes daily with 5400 deaths).
                        3. The use of masks is primarily to keep people who are positive (asymptomatic or symptomatic) from spreading the disease by stopping the water droplets. The N95 mask filters down to .3 microns. COVID is .2 microns.
                        4. 6 ft social distancing is insufficient when people are yelling and screaming as during sporting events.
                        5. Young people may not die but they could spread the disease to older loved ones.
                        6. Young people get to pay off the increased Medicare and Medicaid bills through future taxes. BTW Social security funds are exhausted in 2035 as it is underfunded by 16 Trillion dollars. Medicare's hospital fund will be exhausted by 2026 (before COVID).Medicaid in OHIO ALONE is $28B per year (Before COVID). Add to that the national debt at 25 Trillion dollars which is 125% of GDP. We cannot afford another total shutdown.

                        So it is in everyone's best interest, both from a financial and health perspective, to be aggressive in stopping the spread of COVID.


                        Here are actual numbers from the State of Ohio Department of Health as of 6/23/20.
                        Look at Age Group and Chance of Dying if Infected (%) and change of dying if hospitalized(%).
                        Age 30: .2% 4.0%
                        Age 40: .5% 5.4%
                        Age 50: 2.2% 12.4%
                        Age 60: 6.8% 24.2%
                        Age 70: 17.3% 47.2%
                        Age 80: 32.2% 103.4% (> 100% due to people dying before getting to hospital or in nursing home)




                        Click image for larger version  Name:	covid data 0623.JPG Views:	0 Size:	86.5 KB ID:	515657
                        Last edited by Columbuseer; 06-23-2020, 04:36 PM.

                        Comment


                        • Originally posted by Columbuseer View Post
                          Snip
                          Nice write up! Some numbers in there I hadn't considered.

                          Comment


                          • I also saw a epidemiologist study saying infection rate for those under 70 is only .04%

                            Comment


                            • Originally posted by NWFanatic View Post
                              I also saw a epidemiologist study saying infection rate for those under 70 is only .04%
                              I checked Ohio data and an estimate of infection rate under 65 is about 0.16%, so that seems reasonable.
                              For some reason, children seem to be less prone to infection.
                              For Ohio, ages 25 thru 65 have an estimated 0.48% infection rate., which are 28,500 infections.

                              I suspect that the low infection rate was due to the aggressive action by the Feds and States to social distance and wear masks (and of course stopping flights from China. If we had only known to stop flights from Europe at the same time).

                              Humans inherently have issues assessing and responding appropriately to risk that is less than 1%. See my example about flying if airlines had the same death rate. The longer one goes without being infected, the stronger the COVID19 mental fatigue becomes.

                              I am also concerned that many folks may have misinterpreted "Flattening the curve" as reducing the presence of the virus. It was all about managing hospital resources (beds, ICUs, ventilators, etc.). The virus is still here, and it is still infecting people in tropical climates, so it is more resilient to heat compared to flu.

                              Then folks start gathering in bunches without masks because they think "well it's been 4 months and I haven't gotten infected yet").I am seeing it happen in Ohio, more so in Walmart than in Meijer or Costco based on anecdotal observation.

                              COVID19 is much more contagious than flu. From February through today it is the leading cause of death from disease in the world, surpassing malaria.There is a great animated graph that shows the list of diseases and how COVID19 climbs from the bottom of the chart to the top in that time period. Don't have the link.
                              Also a very expensive way to die (or survive) if hospitalized.

                              We have to open the economy or we face economic collapse so we must accept greater deaths and infections. Due to COVID19 and social unrest, I have great concern that the world will move away from the dollar as the world monetary standard. Few people recognize the permanent damage that could do to our economy. Don't look for mainstream media to discuss this or our huge debt anytime soon.


                              IMHO social distancing and masks are here to stay until a vaccine is proven. We will see an increase in the infection rate above .4% if these guidelines are not followed.
                              Already happening in tourist states.
                              Last edited by Columbuseer; 06-24-2020, 11:37 AM.

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                              • 36,000 new cases yesterday in the US, toppling a record set in April. Now we're seeing states enact travel guidelines...
                                https://www.cnn.com/2020/06/24/us/ne...ion/index.html

                                The NFL just pulled the plug on the HOF game in Canton scheduled for 8/6...
                                Last edited by WarriorVoice; 06-25-2020, 06:16 AM.

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