The Future of D2 Football

[Jerry Smith]

I’ve typed this about 20 different times, and it’s hard to fully dial in what’s in my head... but what is the future of D2 football?

Right now, it feels like D2 has become a waiting room: a place for transfers and student-athletes who are academically eligible and looking for their next opportunity. If money comes calling, they’re gone. If anyone thinks athletes are staying for altruistic reasons, I think that’s denial. Loyalty to institutions is largely gone. Loyalty to coaches, though, still exists.

I also think we’re on the brink of a major divide in D2 between the haves and the have-nots. The elite programs, the ones we see in the playoffs year after year, likely won’t change much, unless they move up to FCS. Even that seems less likely now because of the financial realities.

More and more, D2 feels like a revolving door between FCS and FBS. Athletes will only “play for free” (not literally, but at a level most D2 programs can’t match financially) if they believe there’s a real shot at a championship. There will always be exceptions, but those will mostly come down to relationships and coaching ties.

At some point, recruiting stops being about building four-year programs and starts being about managing constant turnover. Development, culture, and long-term planning all get harder when rosters are in flux every year.

[NWFanatic]

Also D2 is the only Division with Regions, including JC & NAIA

[Mule4ever]

Now that $$$ is involved Loyalty is out the window.

[MrMustang]

I’ve typed this about 20 different times, and it’s hard to fully dial in what’s in my head... but what is the future of D2 football?

Right now, it feels like D2 has become a waiting room: a place for transfers and student-athletes who are academically eligible and looking for their next opportunity. If money comes calling, they’re gone. If anyone thinks athletes are staying for altruistic reasons, I think that’s denial. Loyalty to institutions is largely gone. Loyalty to coaches, though, still exists.

I also think we’re on the brink of a major divide in D2 between the haves and the have-nots. The elite programs, the ones we see in the playoffs year after year, likely won’t change much, unless they move up to FCS. Even that seems less likely now because of the financial realities.

More and more, D2 feels like a revolving door between FCS and FBS. Athletes will only “play for free” (not literally, but at a level most D2 programs can’t match financially) if they believe there’s a real shot at a championship. There will always be exceptions, but those will mostly come down to relationships and coaching ties.

At some point, recruiting stops being about building four-year programs and starts being about managing constant turnover. Development, culture, and long-term planning all get harder when rosters are in flux every year.

pretty well said.

1. Most elite D2 players will transfer to FCS and even some to FBS each year. This will continue to be a problem. Hard to develop loyalty when your school gets a diamond in the rough but then they leave. I don't blame the players, they should go get paid as most of those kids are not even on full scholarships and they can go to FCS and get a fulls scholarship and even a little NIL money.

2. Too many players will continue to his the portal looking for instant gratification. The idea of staying to build a program will become even less than it is now.

3. The Elite D2 schools will continue to dominate. Most are smart enough to not move up to the next level, especially those not in the Sun Belt where there is not enough population growth. Mankato might go, but Ferris State won't . I could see several Texas and Southern schools jump though.

4. The budgets between the haves and have nots will grow bigger. In the NSIC for evexample, half the schools are in Minnesota and those schools and that state is broke. facilities and budgets will be a challenge.

5. It doesn't affect football per se, but D2 absolutely has to get rid of regions for toher sports like volleyball and basketball. The playoff system in those sports is a joke given the regional imbalances, especially in volleyball and men's hoops.

6. Attendance won't get better even with some winning. People have too many entertainment options. Getting young people to attend events is much harder today than 20 years ago when I was young and with young kids. There is way too many streaming services and entertainment options. Plus now games are streamed and people just stay home more than ever. too bad as D2 sports are great in person. Plus young people have way more kid's events than every before. getting your kids to games in harder with all the extra sports. Now there is fall baseball which conflicts with going to football games and year around hockey and basketball.

[MrMustang]

pretty well said.

1. Most elite D2 players will transfer to FCS and even some to FBS each year. This will continue to be a problem. Hard to develop loyalty when your school gets a diamond in the rough but then they leave. I don't blame the players, they should go get paid as most of those kids are not even on full scholarships and they can go to FCS and get a fulls scholarship and even a little NIL money.

2. Too many players will continue to his the portal looking for instant gratification. The idea of staying to build a program will become even less than it is now.

3. The Elite D2 schools will continue to dominate. Most are smart enough to not move up to the next level, especially those not in the Sun Belt where there is not enough population growth. Mankato might go, but Ferris State won't . I could see several Texas and Southern schools jump though.

4. The budgets between the haves and have nots will grow bigger. In the NSIC for evexample, half the schools are in Minnesota and those schools and that state is broke. facilities and budgets will be a challenge.

5. It doesn't affect football per se, but D2 absolutely has to get rid of regions for toher sports like volleyball and basketball. The playoff system in those sports is a joke given the regional imbalances, especially in volleyball and men's hoops.

6. Attendance won't get better even with some winning. People have too many entertainment options. Getting young people to attend events is much harder today than 20 years ago when I was young and with young kids. There is way too many streaming services and entertainment options. Plus now games are streamed and people just stay home more than ever. too bad as D2 sports are great in person. Plus young people have way more kid's events than every before. getting your kids to games in harder with all the extra sports. Now there is fall baseball which conflicts with going to football games and year around hockey and basketball.

On getting people to games -- SMSU has really good ticket packages for familys. Bascially your whole family for every event $500 !!!! thats 4 tickets to every event for $500 for the whole family. between $10 and $20 for a family per event. Great deal. But I am not sure how many they sell and people are so busy.

[MrMustang]

one last thing. FCS could use 12 solid D2 teams to move up... 8-4 tesms make the FCS playoffs. Cmon 9-2 teams often miss the D2 playoffs !

[TheBigCat2192]

TBQH, I don't know what the future of D2 football looks like. We are teetering on the cliff of a sea change in collegiate athletics or even in the early stages of falling off of it and I don't know what's at the bottom. What I do feel fairly strongly about is that a large part of D2 football's future is not going to be decided by the D2 leadership council or the institutions at this level. By and large, the biggest changes that come are going to be second-order effects of the decisions made by people and organs elsewhere. We are already seeing this with the transfer portal and the opening of NIL creating a strong pull factor for accomplished D2 players to try and move up a level or two. I suspect that as long as the pay for play aspect of the House settlement holds up this will continue or even accelerate. I don't see any way to stop it inside of the current rules.

The government will almost certainly have its say in the future of college sports as well. It might be judicially, like O'Bannon, Alston, and House were (I wouldn't be shocked if someone who wasn't part of the House settlement decides to challenge the NIL "clearinghouse" as a restraint of trade, for example) or an ongoing case like Ortega (five year clock) or Johnson (student athletes as employees) . It might be legislatively, like the SCORE Act that the NCAA is asking viewers to call their Representative to support in commercial breaks. It might even be executively through the NLRB and its administrative "law" boards, which have in the past decreed that NCAA players at some schools can unionize.

Out of all these I'd guess that Johnson v NCAA is probably the one most likely keeping the administrators at this level and below up at night. I can't speak for your favorite school or every college or university at this level but I can almost guarantee that if student-athletes are made employees it will be the end of organized athletics at our PASSHE schools in the PSAC. Having to pay wages and benefits to all players plus hire the necessary HR staff for hundreds of newly minted employees is not feasible for them. Considering how many small schools around the country are using athletics to boost enrollment it would have dire consequences for D2 and even those lower like D3/NAIA/JUCO.

The picture is blurry but I am not giving up hope that we will continue on in some way. College sports has survived two World Wars and all manner of changes in the past. There's also an element of unique tradition baked in here which I think we can draw on for strength. While intercollegiate athletics aren't the norm around the world they have been normal in the US for well over a century and it's hard to imagine them disappearing overnight. Even if the NCAA falls, as long as the employment issue is unsettled something will rise to take its place; whether that be another national body, private or public, or a return to more regionalized play (or a split between those who want these things) I can't predict.

[GoldenRam94]

D3 Championship played at the Pro Football Hall of Fame
FCS Championship played in Nashville on an SEC field.

D2 played in Texas on a High School field.

[Matt Witwicki]

D3 Championship played at the Pro Football Hall of Fame
FCS Championship played in Nashville on an SEC field.

D2 played in Texas on a High School field.

Where the D2 is played isn't a problem for our level. If you've been down there, it's a fantastic facility and right-sized for our top game.

The D3 was just played infront of a half-empty stadium that wasn't a good look on TV..and not to mention an icy field and 25 degree temps. So..

The FCS is a level above..and should have something a bit nicer..and will have double the fan attendance of what comes to D2....so all that is part of it.

The portal and schools not having $$ for it....that's the current problem D2 has..not the venue where the championship is being played.

[AlexTheHAMMER]

Where the D2 is played isn't a problem for our level. If you've been down there, it's a fantastic facility and right-sized for our top game.

The D3 was just played infront of a half-empty stadium that wasn't a good look on TV..and not to mention an icy field and 25 degree temps. So..

I'm watching the D3 replay right now on ESPNU and attendance is pretty meh

Looking at the D2 Championships, they've had a big boost with Harding in two of the last three championships. Post-COVID here are the numbers.

2021	Ferris/Valdosta	3933
2022	Ferris/CO Mines	6333
2023	Harding/Mines	12552
2024	Ferris/Valdosta	3228
2025	Ferris/Harding	10521

A Newberry/Kutztown championship game might have seen bad attendance

[Gorilla John 92]

I'm watching the D3 replay right now on ESPNU and attendance is pretty meh

Looking at the D2 Championships, they've had a big boost with Harding in two of the last three championships. Post-COVID here are the numbers.

2021	Ferris/Valdosta	3933
2022	Ferris/CO Mines	6333
2023	Harding/Mines	12552
2024	Ferris/Valdosta	3228
2025	Ferris/Harding	10521

A Newberry/Kutztown championship game might have seen bad attendance

The two outliers are the Harding Games. As others have said on the GAC board, Harding has a large number of graduates in the Dallas metroplex. I think the norm would be around 5K. The other big thing about the DII games is it is played IN THE FALL semester and a week after the semi's. What would the numbers be like it the game was moved back some? Thoughts?

[Ram040506]

The two outliers are the Harding Games. As others have said on the GAC board, Harding has a large number of graduates in the Dallas metroplex. I think the norm would be around 5K. The other big thing about the DII games is it is played IN THE FALL semester and a week after the semi's. What would the numbers be like it the game was moved back some? Thoughts?

Much worse. I do like the thought of maybe holding the FCS/D2 and D3 championship games on a Saturday in succession with one another. D3 at noon, D2 at say 4 and then FCS at 8pm. Think that would be a fun day for small school football.

[Matt Witwicki]

I'm watching the D3 replay right now on ESPNU and attendance is pretty meh

Looking at the D2 Championships, they've had a big boost with Harding in two of the last three championships. Post-COVID here are the numbers.

2021	Ferris/Valdosta	3933
2022	Ferris/CO Mines	6333
2023	Harding/Mines	12552
2024	Ferris/Valdosta	3228
2025	Ferris/Harding	10521

A Newberry/Kutztown championship game might have seen bad attendance

Here's the big difference there....the D2 is played in a stadium that fits 12,000 whereas the D3 fits 23,000 and looks all the worse when they have 2400 in attendance. That's kinda my point there.

With FBS likely trying to get things wrapped up by the New Year for portal reasoning in the very near future, I'm doubting D2 and others play after the new year. It would be great if the games could be played in a way where it was a small college football Saturday etc..but D3 doesn't care what D2 does and neither care about what FCS does. They all do things that fit their own needs.

[FoothillBison]

No problem with the Venue in Dallas. The problem is the timing. It is played on the same day as the Texas State Championship not far down the road. Casual football fans go to that instead.

[Redwing]

No problem with the Venue in Dallas. The problem is the timing. It is played on the same day as the Texas State Championship not far down the road. Casual football fans go to that instead.

For me, it's 2 things: timing and location. Frankly, for most fans, quality of venue means little. If one can make an OK drive to the location that can bring in fans. And having it with one week's notice just before Christmas doesn't help. So, putting the game a week earlier (or maybe more than a week after the semis) and more in the middle of the country could likely have at least 8K of attendance. Otherwise, to see larger crowds, it has to be near a participants' back yard or fan base. IMO, I don't think the NCAA cares about how many fans show. If they did, they could do a cheap demographic check on the fans attending and maybe analyze some of those numbers... like how far the fan came, how they got to the vicinity.(drive, fly, live), did it matter who played? (your team or just wanted to see a good football game.) Those type of things. And then try a location that optimizes certain factors. But I think NCAA just looks to see who gives them the best deal.