IUP Football 2021

[IUP FLA 12]

Taking a little closer look at Mercyhurst after its first three games:

PPG: 11.67
PPG Against: 25.33

Rushing Yards per game: 64.7
Rushing Yards against: 141.7

Passing Yards per game: 184
Passing Yards against: 146

3rd down conversion: 9 for 39 (23%)
3rd down conversion against: 11-34 (32%)


One thing skewing the rushing yards is the Lakers' QBs have been sacked a ton -- 16 times through 3 games (10 of which came via West Chester). IUP should be able to really exploit the DL vs OL match-up.


To this point, the Mercyhurst offense has showed very little production. Its season-high 18 points came against a dreadful Alderson Broaddus team.


Scores

vs. AB (18-3, W)
vs. West Chester (56-10, L)
@ ESU (17-7, L)

Thanks Big Indians! Are you going up to the game on Saturday?

[IUPbigINDIANS]

Some interesting data ... inside the rushing numbers in games against top opponents for the past 2 years and 2 games:

YEAR	OPPONENT	RUSHING YARDS (NET)	AVG. PER CARRY	GAME RESULT
2018	Ashland	139	3.9	WIN
2018	Cal	236	438	LOSS
2018	SRU	69	2.6	LOSS
2019	CAL	75	2.5	WIN
2019	SRU	96	4.4	LOSS
2019	SHEP	148	4.1	LOSS
2021	KUTZ	94	3.2	WIN
2021	SHEP	79	2.5	LOSS

Season averages

YEAR	Rushing Yards Per Game	Avg. Carry
2018	185.5	4.5
2019	174.1	4.8
2021	86.5	2.9

Naturally, you expect the numbers to come down a bit against better competition. But, of the 8 games above, IUP has rushed for 96 yards or less in 5 of them. Not coincidentally, IUP's record in its past 8 'big games' is now 3-5.

By my count (and memory), IUP played from behind in 6 of the 8 games listed above -- a couple from 'way' behind (last two SRU games).

I still think this 3-5 record in these 8 games goes back to these slow offensive starts. Last week, yes, IUP moved the ball in the first half, but, went to the break with just 6 points. Constantly playing catch-up in these games really tees up the defense.

[IUPNation]

Some interesting data ... inside the rushing numbers in games against top opponents for the past 2 years and 2 games:

YEAR	OPPONENT	RUSHING YARDS (NET)	AVG. PER CARRY	GAME RESULT
2018	Ashland	139	3.9	WIN
2018	Cal	236	438	LOSS
2018	SRU	69	2.6	LOSS
2019	CAL	75	2.5	WIN
2019	SRU	96	4.4	LOSS
2019	SHEP	148	4.1	LOSS
2021	KUTZ	94	3.2	WIN
2021	SHEP	79	2.5	LOSS

Season averages

YEAR	Rushing Yards Per Game	Avg. Carry
2018	185.5	4.5
2019	174.1	4.8
2021	86.5	2.9

Naturally, you expect the numbers to come down a bit against better competition. But, of the 8 games above, IUP has rushed for 96 yards or less in 5 of them. Not coincidentally, IUP's record in its past 8 'big games' is now 3-5.

By my count (and memory), IUP played from behind in 6 of the 8 games listed above -- a couple from 'way' behind (last two SRU games).

I still think this 3-5 record in these 8 games goes back to these slow offensive starts. Last week, yes, IUP moved the ball in the first half, but, went to the break with just 6 points. Constantly playing catch-up in these games really tees up the defense.

[IUPbigINDIANS]

Here is the offense / defense breakdown for the above 8 'big games' ...

Offense Points Scored by Half

Year	Opponent	1st Half IUP Points Scored	2nd Half IUP Points Scored	Total	Result
18	Ashland	14	7	21	W
18	SRU	6	21	27	L
18	Cal	14	10	24	L
19	SRU	14	28	42	L
19	Cal	0	17	17	W
19	Shep	7	20	27	L
21	Kutz	7	22	29	W
21	Shep	6	15	21	L

Defense Points Allowed by Half

Year	Opponent	1sd Half Points Allowed by IUP	2nd Half Allowed	Total	Result
18	Ashland	10	7	17	W
18	SRU	20	10	30	L
18	Cal	10	26	36	L
19	SRU	31	14	45	L
19	Cal	3	3	6	W
19	Shep	14	17	31	L
21	Kutz	7	19	26	W
21	Shep	10	27	37	L

In these 8 games, IUP is averaging just 8.5 points in the first half. Yet, they are averaging 17.5 ppg after halftime. That is an incredible difference (more than double). Fair question is why? What is causing such a different result from the first half to the second?

Defensively, IUP is giving up 13.12 ppg in the first half, compared to giving up 15.38 ppg in the second half.

[IUPFOOTBALLALUM]

BEEN ON THIS MESSAGE BOARD FOR A LONG TIME! BEEN READING IT FOR YEARS!

[IUPFOOTBALLALUM]

[IUPbigINDIANS]

I agree they've had (have) great backs. But the data above does not support them running at will against top opponents. Quite the opposite. Does that directly correlate to playing from behind in 75% of the above 8 games? My guess is, yes, it does.

Oddly, the game listed they ran the best (Cal / 2018), they lost. That dang Lenny Pick 6 in the end zone.


Again, these are factual numbers from these games. So, something certainly is going on.

[Fightingscot82]

I hate suggesting this because it sounds insulting to the individual players, but has IUP's offensive line been overrated? They've had some great backs in these years and nearly each starting OL make All-PSAC.

[IUPFOOTBALLALUM]

I agree they've had (have) great backs. But the data above does not support them running at will against top opponents. Quite the opposite. Does that directly correlate to playing from behind in 75% of the above 8 games? My guess is, yes, it does.

Oddly, the game listed they ran the best (Cal / 2018), they lost. That dang Lenny Pick 6 in the end zone.


Again, these are factual numbers from these games. So, something certainly is going on.

Check back 2015-2017. Iup was putting up 300+ multiple times a season. Against Top opponents.

[IUPbigINDIANS]

Check back 2015-2017. Iup was putting up 300+ multiple times a season. Against Top opponents.

Great numbers in the 90s, too, but neither is helping the current problem.

[Matt Burglund]

But, of the 8 games above, IUP has rushed for 96 yards or less in 5 of them. Not coincidentally, IUP's record in its past 8 'big games' is now 3-5.

lost.

I think you have answered your own question, in a sense: the slow starts.

In three of the five losses in your chart, IUP trailed at halftime and had to abandon the run game:

• 2018 vs. SRU, 5 rushes in the second half
• 2019 vs. SRU, 11
• 2021 vs. Shepherd, 9

The question that needs to be answered in those games is ... why did IUP fell behind by so many points so quickly?

The other two losses happened because of mistakes during crunch time: a pick-6 vs. Cal in 2018 and a lapse in defense against a great QB/WR vs. Shepherd in 2019.

[IUPbigINDIANS]

lost.

I think you have answered your own question, in a sense: the slow starts.

In three of the five losses in your chart, IUP trailed at halftime and had to abandon the run game:

• 2018 vs. SRU, 5 rushes in the second half
• 2019 vs. SRU, 11
• 2021 vs. Shepherd, 9

The question that needs to be answered in those games is ... why did IUP fell behind by so many points so quickly?

The other two losses happened because of mistakes during crunch time: a pick-6 vs. Cal in 2018 and a lapse in defense against a great QB/WR vs. Shepherd in 2019.

Just trying to detect some patterns. The 'slow start' pattern isn't going to have a single answer.

I'm not going to dive deep enough in to it to see how many games they got the ball first, etc.

5 of the 8 games IUP scored 7 points or less in the first half. It's odd. It's no doubt killing them in these games. It's just hard to figure why it's happening. That's a big enough sample size to call it more than a fluke.

No means implying they should have won all of them ... but they are a tremendously better second half offensive team. There has to be something to it. Game-planning ... who knows.

I didn't even include the last game of 2017 when we got down huge against West Florida -- 0 points in first half and finished with 17.

No doubt playing from behind in these games takes its toll on everything. First and foremost, it changes the entire offense.

BUT, you could say once said offense gets changed in the second half ... they score more.

The 'slow start' comes up a lot (and obviously now again after last week). I think there's definitely some proof here it's not just a 'thought' anymore ... it's happening.

Are we too conservative in the first half? Last week they moved the ball well in the first half. But, got just two FGs. Kicking field goals against that offense ... well, we know what happens.

[Fightingscot82]

I guess you'd need to do a time intensive deep dive to really figure out why Tortball is the way it is. Does the offense start slow, the defense, or both? Is it play calling or play making? Regardless, when you know you're coming from behind, you sometimes try to force things or take unnecessary risks that don't always pay off. Hard to diagnose the whole lot at the same time.

[IUPbigINDIANS]

I guess you'd need to do a time intensive deep dive to really figure out why Tortball is the way it is. Does the offense start slow, the defense, or both? Is it play calling or play making? Regardless, when you know you're coming from behind, you sometimes try to force things or take unnecessary risks that don't always pay off. Hard to diagnose the whole lot at the same time.

As I said in the post ahead of yours, oddly their offense gets better in the second half (while trying to play catch-up).

Makes me wonder if our first half offense is:

A. Too predictable and it is scouted out too well
B. Too conservative
C. Perhaps both

After two games I'm already done with seeing this team run on first down. It's just not working. Mix it up. We have all these WRs and a big TE ... get pass happy. Granted, running will probably work in these next three games much better against Mercyhurst, Clarion and GU.

[IUPNation]

As I said in the post ahead of yours, oddly their offense gets better in the second half (while trying to play catch-up).

Makes me wonder if our first half offense is:

A. Too predictable and it is scouted out too well
B. Too conservative
C. Perhaps both

After two games I'm already done with seeing this team run on first down. It's just not working. Mix it up. We have all these WRs and a big TE ... get pass happy. Granted, running will probably work in these next three games much better against Mercyhurst, Clarion and GU.