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  • Regional Rankings

    I'm not sure when the first regional rankings come out, but it is going to be interesting to see who gets ranked where.

    Super Region 3 consists of the GLIAC, GLVC, MIAA and GAC. This is a region that entering Saturday had 5 of the top 8 teams in the D2football.com poll.
    In those conferences, as of this writing, we have the following teams undefeated Ouachita Baptist, Grand Valley State, Davenport, and Pittsburgh State. With a single loss we have Ferris State, Indianapolis, Truman St. The two loss teams include Saginaw Valley State, Quincy, Harding, Henderson State, East Central, Central Oklahoma, NWMSU, UNK and Emporia St.


    This is 16 teams fighting for what amounts to 7 spots available in the post-season.
    Here is a quick look at the teams and their potential chances to make the post-season. These teams are simply listed and not in a particular order.
    The undefeateds
    GVSU- GVSU has escaped the toughest stretch of their season with wins over Ferris State and SVSU. Only remaining significant test, by record is Davenport in the finale. The Lakers should finish undefeated and in the playoffs as the #1 seed.
    Ouachita Baptist – They still have two loss Henderson State and two loss East Central on the schedule. So far this season they have proven they are the class of the GAC. A single slip up likely does not keep them out of the post-season. Losing twice, could put them in jeopardy, but they do have the head to head win over Harding.
    Davenport- The Panthers are still undefeated this season. This likely continues for another week, as Lincoln (Ca) makes another trip to West Michigan for what should be another loss. Things get much tougher for the final three weeks. Davenport closes with SVSU, Ferris and GVSU the final three weeks. The only way Davenport makes the post-season is pulling off an upset in one of those games.
    Pittsburg State – The Gorillas have already beaten 3 of the MIAA’s closest challengers in UNK-NWMSU and Emporia State. Central Oklahoma is the only 2 loss team they have left. The toughest test howover may come from 3 loss Washburn who gave NWMSU all they could handle today. I think this team also advances undefeated into the playoffs.
    One loss wonders
    Truman State – Truman currently sits with one loss, a 1 point loss to undefeated Davenport in the opener. I don’t think Davenport is that good, and I don’t think Truman is either. They still have 2 loss Quincy and Indy to finish up the season. I think they enter the finale vs Indy with a single loss and the winner of that game gets the GLVS’s playoff spot.
    Indianapolis- Indy just got their first loss today at the hands of SVSU handily. Like Truman, they should enter the final week showdown with just the lone loss, with a playoff spot going to the winner.
    Ferris – After sneaking by SVSU, they lost the battle of 1 vs 2 by a point to GVSU. They, like GVSU, only have one real test left and that is also Davenport. Again, this is a team Ferris should beat and they, like GVSU should be in the post-season. Barring a stunning loss, this teams should be in, although it is very possible they only get 1 first round home game simply because they have a single loss.

    The two loss mess –
    Saginaw Valley – The Cards got hammered by GVSU before giving Ferris everything they could handle. Today they continued a tough stretch by playing (and handily defeating Indy). I think this win today, combined with a schedule that should see them win out, may have been a huge step towards making the playoffs.
    Quincy – They still play Truman and Indy and should be out of the post-season conversation after next week vs Indy.
    Harding – The good news is they have the toughest portion of the schedule done. The bad news, they have losses to OBU and Henderson State, which likely puts them #3 in the GAC pecking order for a post-season playoff spot. What is an advantage for them is that OBU and Henderson still have to play, which means Henderson may have 3 losses to Harding’s 2. Will head to head trump a better record in conference only play?
    Henderson State – They have losses to Southern Arkansas and East Central. With OBU left, the likely need a win in that game to get in. If that happens, they do hold a head to head over Harding, so they really need to win and get some help.
    East Central – After starting 0-2, they have 5 straight wins, including beating Henderson State. With OBU left on the schedule, a minimum of three losses is likely and that puts them in a dog pile for a playoff spot.
    Central Oklahoma – I don’t think they like the Missouri directional schools, having lost to Southern and Western, but they did beat the other directional Northwest. I think this is a team on borrowed time in terms of post-season chances. Washburn, Pitt St and UNK the next three weeks will likely eliminate them from consideration.
    NWMSU – The loss to Pitt St stung, but losing to Central Oklahoma is hurting the playoff chances more. UNK and Emporia are the biggest remaining tests. I still think this team wins out and makes it into the post-season
    UNK – The loss to Emporia badly today really stings the playoff chances with NWMSU still on tap. They also have Central Oklahoma on the remaining schedule. I think they need to sweep those games to get in.
    Emporia – Should cruise into a matchup the final week with NWMSU, which will likely have a post-season place on the line.

    My predictions for the regional rankings
    1) GVSU
    2) OBU
    3) Pitt St
    4) Ferris St
    5) SVSU
    6) Indianapolis
    7) Emporia St.
    8) Davenport
    9) Truman
    10) Harding

  • #2
    Great breakdown of everything chapmaja. It is going to be interesting to see how it plays out in the GAC and MIAA for sure. With all the two loss teams in those leagues it is hard to see how the committee will sort it out for the first few RR. I think your rankings are pretty on point. I think after all the dust settles and baring any major upsets I think the final rankings will be:

    1.GV
    2.FSU
    3.Pitt
    4. OBU
    5. SVSU
    6. Truman/Indy winner
    7. 2 loss MIAA or GAC

    Comment


    • #3
      Originally posted by Gliac_fan10 View Post
      Great breakdown of everything chapmaja. It is going to be interesting to see how it plays out in the GAC and MIAA for sure. With all the two loss teams in those leagues it is hard to see how the committee will sort it out for the first few RR. I think your rankings are pretty on point. I think after all the dust settles and baring any major upsets I think the final rankings will be:

      1.GV
      2.FSU
      3.Pitt
      4. OBU
      5. SVSU
      6. Truman/Indy winner
      7. 2 loss MIAA or GAC
      assuming Pitt and OBU win out, i highly doubt the committee seeds a 1 loss team over 2 undefeated conference champs. I do think Ferris is probably better than both but we will have to wait to a blustery november day in either KS or AR to find out.

      Comment


      • #4
        Originally posted by Wallst View Post

        assuming Pitt and OBU win out, i highly doubt the committee seeds a 1 loss team over 2 undefeated conference champs. I do think Ferris is probably better than both but we will have to wait to a blustery november day in either KS or AR to find out.
        Traditionally I would agree with you but the last few years it seems that the committee almost places more weight on SOS and who you have beat (and especially where- H vs A), obviously WL still matters but undefeated doesn’t carry automatic weight. If things go according to “chalk” their resumes would be:

        FSU
        Top wins: @1 loss LR, @2 loss SVSU and vs 3 loss Davenport
        SOS: Top 5 in nation (.650ish probably)
        The GV loss will be considered a “good” loss
        Also opp SOS will help them (which is also a strong criteria), and it appears that every GLIAC team will most likely finish in the top 50 in SOS, including 4 that might be in top 10

        OBU
        Top wins: vs 2 loss Harding, and then the rest might be vs 3 loss teams
        SOS: .500, right in middle of pack
        Opp SOS will all be .500 as well

        Pitt
        Top wins: vs 2 loss NW, and then the rest might be vs 3 loss teams as well
        SOS: .500, right in middle of pack
        Opp SOS will all be .500 as well

        Comment


        • #5
          Originally posted by Gliac_fan10 View Post

          Traditionally I would agree with you but the last few years it seems that the committee almost places more weight on SOS and who you have beat (and especially where- H vs A), obviously WL still matters but undefeated doesn’t carry automatic weight. If things go according to “chalk” their resumes would be:

          FSU
          Top wins: @1 loss LR, @2 loss SVSU and vs 3 loss Davenport
          SOS: Top 5 in nation (.650ish probably)
          The GV loss will be considered a “good” loss
          Also opp SOS will help them (which is also a strong criteria), and it appears that every GLIAC team will most likely finish in the top 50 in SOS, including 4 that might be in top 10

          OBU
          Top wins: vs 2 loss Harding, and then the rest might be vs 3 loss teams
          SOS: .500, right in middle of pack
          Opp SOS will all be .500 as well

          Pitt
          Top wins: vs 2 loss NW, and then the rest might be vs 3 loss teams as well
          SOS: .500, right in middle of pack
          Opp SOS will all be .500 as well
          Realistically, Pitt and OBU should be the only MIAA and GAC teams in the field, given their scheduling and a swath of what will be 2 and 3-loss teams. It should be 3 GLIAC, 2 GLVC, 1 MIAA, 1 GAC, based on the numbers.
          2021 D2Football Fantasy Champion

          Comment


          • #6
            Originally posted by KleShreen View Post

            Realistically, Pitt and OBU should be the only MIAA and GAC teams in the field, given their scheduling and a swath of what will be 2 and 3-loss teams. It should be 3 GLIAC, 2 GLVC, 1 MIAA, 1 GAC, based on the numbers.
            I think the GLVC gets only 1 team in. The reason is because of on field performance of the teams in contention, Truman and Indy. Truman has a loss to the 4th best GLIAC team, and Indy has a bad loss to the 3rd best GLIAC team. I think the 2nd team from the GLVC falls right into that battle of 2 loss teams that could potentially be several teams. What might help the GLVC is that it is possible the vast majority of 2 loss teams become 3 loss teams before selection Sunday. If that is the case, a 2 loss 2nd place GLVC team should make it in over any 3 loss teams.

            Comment


            • #7
              Originally posted by chapmaja View Post

              I think the GLVC gets only 1 team in. The reason is because of on field performance of the teams in contention, Truman and Indy. Truman has a loss to the 4th best GLIAC team, and Indy has a bad loss to the 3rd best GLIAC team. I think the 2nd team from the GLVC falls right into that battle of 2 loss teams that could potentially be several teams. What might help the GLVC is that it is possible the vast majority of 2 loss teams become 3 loss teams before selection Sunday. If that is the case, a 2 loss 2nd place GLVC team should make it in over any 3 loss teams.
              But the 2-loss GLVC team is going to have a better SOS than the 2-loss MIAA and GAC teams, which is why I think it possible they get in over any of the 2-loss MIAA/GAC teams. Truman's OOC was Davenport, who will probably have a 6-3 D2 record, SD Mines who will probably have a 7-4 D2 record, Hillsdale who will hurt the SOS because they'll probably be 4-7, and then Tiffin who will probably have a 6-4/7-3 D2 record. The MIAA and GAC teams are all going to have a .500 SOS and Opp SOS, but Truman is going to be so much higher than any of them that I don't see a way they are ranked below the MIAA/GAC teams. We'll see what happens, though.

              Keep in mind that the numbers really don't care who you lose to, but rather, they care who you beat. Truman beating SD Mines and Tiffin is going to be significant, especially with SD Mines being on the road. That's why GV missed the playoffs in 2017 at 8-3, even though their 3 losses were to an undefeated UIndy, a 1-loss Ferris, and a 1-loss Ashland. But they didn't beat anyone of significance. Harding got in with 3 losses instead because of their victory over Ouachita Baptist, despite their losses being to much worse teams.
              Last edited by KleShreen; 10-19-2022, 09:47 AM.
              2021 D2Football Fantasy Champion

              Comment


              • #8
                SOS isn't the only factor. If Tiffin doesn't end up ranked in SR1, the GLVC runner-up won't have any wins over ranked teams, in addition to being 7-2 or 8-2 rather than 9-2. So I wouldn't assume that that team would have an edge over 9-2 teams from the MIAA and GAC.

                Edit: In KleShreen's 2017 example, GVSU had an SOS of .571 while of course all the GAC/MIAA teams they were being compared against had .500 SOS. But Harding was the only one of the group with ranked wins, and they had 2.
                Last edited by Inkblot; 10-19-2022, 01:03 PM.

                Comment


                • #9
                  Imo the Emporia State vs. Northwest Missouri State game closing out the regular season should be a winner goes to the playoffs game. I know there are some games that need to be hashed out in other conferences first but when it comes to possible 2 loss teams, that is a huge game.

                  I know everyone needs to focus on the weekend ahead but ESU is definitely playing playoff worthy football at the moment.

                  Comment


                  • #10
                    2017's last PO spot was decided based on road record, since the PO spot in question was for #7 seed---that was per a source at the time. Harding was 5-1 on the road, Grand Valley was 3-3 on the road.

                    Comment


                    • #11
                      Originally posted by Armo Wood View Post
                      2017's last PO spot was decided based on road record, since the PO spot in question was for #7 seed---that was per a source at the time. Harding was 5-1 on the road, Grand Valley was 3-3 on the road.
                      That makes sense too. The point about SOS stands though (and road record was removed from the criteria last year).

                      Comment


                      • #12
                        Originally posted by Inkblot View Post

                        That makes sense too. The point about SOS stands though (and road record was removed from the criteria last year).
                        My point was to only clarify what criteria was used in 2017 to differentiate Harding and Grand Valley.

                        Comment


                        • #13
                          I believe the first regional rankings will come out tomorrow.

                          Comment


                          • #14
                            Originally posted by tip79 View Post
                            I believe the first regional rankings will come out tomorrow.
                            List yes, as the top ten are supposedly to be just an alphabetical listing. It'll create some chatter though.

                            Comment


                            • #15
                              Great article to read that just clarifies the process

                              https://www.d2football.com/d2-footba...-selection-qa/

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