West Liberty Hilltopper Basketball

[Scrub]

This team needs a serious shake-up. And there is about zero time to do it in. They are not playing WLU type basketball and haven't really done so all season except in small spurts.

For a number of reasons, its good that I'm not the coach. But if I were, several of the starters and supposed stars would be seeng some serious bench time and I'm talking end of the bench bench time. You want to take most of the shots? Here, have a seat next to me so I can explain during the game why thats not a good thing. You want to dribble drive every time you get the ball? Here, sit on the other side of me while I explain to you why we don't play that way.

I know what you mean, Boat. Columbus might be right that the off-ball movement wasn't very dynamic in the second half which resulted in some stagnant one-v-one possessions. But, honestly, guys might also stop working to be open off the ball if they know the man with the ball is just heading to the rack regardless.

In particular, it seems like Pat Robinson's decision making is doing nothing but declining. It's true that he's recognized as one of the guys in the league who is very hard to stay in front of. But he also finds himself a victim of help D once he beats his own man. A blocked shot from a help-side defender is not as successful as dishing it off the open man that help-side defender just released.

But Robinson's suspect decision making aside, I honestly think the biggest problem during this stretch has been the absolute non-factor that Yoakum has been. Following last year, I would have argued with anyone that Yoakum was WLU's best player pound-for-pound. He can't make a shot this year (inside or outside). He just looks off, and I'm not sure what it is. But without his contributions, the offense gets significantly more pedestrian.

And I'm with you, Boat. I'd love to see more time on the floor for guys like Butler, Rasile, and Watson (while guys like Robinson & Yoakum get some time to figure it out). Butler has been very good. The two freshmen have made some freshman mistakes. But you can't question the effort or decision making. Despite some youthful experience errors, Rasile & Watson have shown that they're willing to go 100% and that they're willing to play the WLU way.

[Columbuseer]

FYI
Stats on WLU vs WV State game by halves, for it was a tale of two halves.
Some observations:
First Half:
1. Very good ball and player movement in 1st half. Tremendous effort. I saw players make the extra pass because they realized they were not in good 3 point shooting position. Playing at 22 assists per 100 possession rate, which is much improved.
2. Forced 14 turnovers in first half with tremendous energy.
3. Shot 23 threes in the first half, but only made 8 for 35% and only 37% overall
4. WLU was averaging only 1.00 points per possession, which is concerning, given that they were sharing the ball. Fortunately, WVSU was at a horrendous 0.76 points per possession and terrible 0.36 assist to turnover ratio.

Second half:
1. WLU movement without the ball slowed down (fatigue), and players had to resort to dribble drive late in the shot clock, or there was no one to pass the ball who was open).
2. WLU points per possession rose to a good 1.19 pts/possession
3. WVSU went from a 0.76 to an unbeatable 1.46 pts. per possession.
4. WVSU hit 17 of 20 foul shots in the second half and committed fewer turnovers.

Summary:
-WVSU is a very talented team. They have 4 players shooting over 37% from three for the season, but they are also excellent 1 on 1 players.
-WVSU protected the ball much better in the second half.
-WLU lost because they could not stay in front of their man on dribble drives and shot 14-45 from three. When you are playing a team as gifted as WVSU, IMHO you have to shoot 40+ % or generate turnovers if you are having trouble guarding them.
-I think some of the WLU dribble drive was out of necessity as no one was moving to get open for three and someone had to take charge. That said, I saw some folks doing post moves with back to the basket with 3 guys near them. Someone had to be open for a three. A close in contested post shot is one of the lowest percentage shots in basketball (according to Caldwell coach of Glenville).
-WLU played their guts out to try to win the game, crashing the boards and hustling.
-I was somewhat surprised by no calls when WLU hit the deck.

IMHO no need to hit the panic button. We lost to a very good team during an off night shooting.

WLU vs WV State jan 27 2021	WL Half 1	WL Half 2	wv state half 1	wv state half 2
POINTS	45	51	37	63
FGM	15	16	10	22
FGA	40	43	31	31
FGPCT	37.50%	37.21%	32.26%	70.97%
3FGM	8	6	2	2
3FGA	23	22	9	4
3FGPCT	34.78%	27.27%	22.22%	50.00%
FTM	7	13	15	17
FTA	10	15	22	20
FTPCT	70.00%	86.67%	68.18%	85.00%
REBOUND OFFENSIVE	7	11	6	3
REBOUND DEFENSIVE	18	9	18	16
REBOUND TOTAL	25	20	24	19
ASSISTS	10	7	5	9
TURNOVERS	8	4	14	6
BLOCKS	3	0	1	0
STEALS	10	3	6	2
Num Possessions	45	43	49	43
Points per Possession	1.00	1.19	0.76	1.47
Assists per 100 Possessions	22.2	16.3	10.2	20.9
Turnovers per 100 Possessions (< better)	17.8	9.3	28.6	14.0
Assist to Turnover Ratio	1.25	1.75	0.36	1.50
Offensive Rebound % of Missed Shots	28.0%	40.7%	28.6%	33.3%

[Columbuseer]

I thought West Liberty was the best?

[boatcapt]

This team needs a serious shake-up. And there is about zero time to do it in. They are not playing WLU type basketball and haven't really done so all season except in small spurts.

For a number of reasons, its good that I'm not the coach. But if I were, several of the starters and supposed stars would be seeng some serious bench time and I'm talking end of the bench bench time. You want to take most of the shots? Here, have a seat next to me so I can explain during the game why thats not a good thing. You want to dribble drive every time you get the ball? Here, sit on the other side of me while I explain to you why we don't play that way.

[IUPalum]

I thought West Liberty was the best?

[Scrub]

(And let's also relish the fact that the team we cheer for hasn't lost back-to-back regular season games in 5 years. That's not something most fan bases can boast).

[Scrub]

I'll anxiously await Columbus's statistical analysis of what happened last night. I hate that the statistical category that seemed to play an outsized role was the one marked PF in the box score. But there are far bigger problems than that. You don't beat good teams shooting 30%.

But I'm not sure it's time to hit the panic button just yet. The last time WLU lost back-to-back regular season games, they went on to participate in the Final Four. So, let's hope Howlett and Bolon can rally the troops the same way that Crutch & Bonifant did five years ago.

[Layton]

[Scrub]

Good stuff, Columbus. Thanks for crunching the numbers. And, yes, WLU needs to get back to its game or WVSU will dominate the game tonight.

Historically, the game immediately following the letdown game is usually a textbook version of WLU basketball. Let's hope that's the case tonight.

I think I remember a few years ago--didn't the offensive record game against Glenville immediately follow the letdown game against WVWC? It just seems like when they slide into an inferior style of play, the following game is usually a pretty good specimen of WLU ball. Here's hoping that's the case tonight against a very talented WVSU team.

[Columbuseer]

FYI
Here are the stats from the Concord WLU Game. I also compared WLU stats from the Frostburg game, showing relative percentage change from Frostburg. Negative percentage means decrease in performance (except for turnovers). In the Frostburg game, WLU was playing very high level basketball in terms of the WL brand of basketball.

I think the stats tell a fairly convincing story. As much respect as I have for the skills of the WLU players, these skills are not why they win 85% of their games over the last decade. It is the WL style of basketball that allows a team to average 1.26 points per possession for an entire season and lead the nation in scoring margin. It works because it is based on sound game theory for winning in the game of basketball.



High points per possession depends on ball movement, player movement, offensive rebounding, forcing turnovers, avoiding committing turnover and exhausting the opponent, both mentally and physically, to carry the team during those nights when WL is shooting poorly and the opponent is playing at a high level.

If the players don't revert to the WL style, WV State has the talent to run them out of the gym in a dribble drive game.

To support these assertions, just look at the decline in key WL stats from Frostburg to Concord, such as:

WEST Lib Stats	West Liberty	Concord	% change WLU stat from previous game (Frostburg)
POINTS	83	91	-38.1%
FGM	28	29	-37.8%
FGA	63	53	-19.2%
FGPCT	44.4%	54.7%	-23.0%
3FGM	5	7	-64.3%
3FGA	23	18	-28.1%
3FGPCT	21.7%	38.9%	-50.3%
FTM	22	26	-26.7%
FTA	27	34	-18.2%
FTPCT	81.5%	76.5%	-10.4%
REBOUND OFFENSIVE	10	11	-23.1%
REBOUND DEFENSIVE	16	22	-61.0%
REBOUND TOTAL	26	33	-51.9%
ASSISTS	8	13	-74.2%
TURNOVERS	17	22	0.0%
BLOCKS	1	2	-66.7%
STEALS	10	5	-23.1%
Num Possessions	82	79	-15.5%
Points per Possession	1.01	1.15	-26.7%
Assists per 100 Possessions	9.8	16.5	-69.5%
Turnovers per 100 Possessions (< better)	20.7	27.8	18.3%
Assist to Turnover Ratio	0.47	0.59	-74.2%
Offensive Rebound % of Missed Shots	28.6%	45.8%	-27.5%

[Columbuseer]

FYI west lib team national d2 stat ranking, (through Jan 24 unless otherwise noted)

# 1
Scoring 106.8

#2
Steals per Game 11
Turnovers forced per game 21.40

#3
Total Rebounds Per Game 46

#4
Scoring margin 24
Turnover margin 7.6
Rebound Margin 10

#5
Offensive rebounds per game 17.6

#6
Assists per game 18.8

#7
Free Throw % 81.56%

#19
Defensive Rebounds per game 28.4

#20
Assist to turnover ratio 1.36

#21
Field Goal Percentage 48.83%

#22
3 pt FG defense 28.7%

[boatcapt]

forgot about him. Crutch actually spoke at the aliquippa sports banquet that year. Have a friend who grew up in aliquippa and still has family there. A lot more factors in the decision than the carry situation but he did not volunteer details. I was happy when he landed at iup. By all accounts a good young man.

Beyond a family situation, can't really think of one that would have prevented him from fulfilling his obligation to WLU. Guess he could have been academically inelligible but if I remember, there were a number of comments/stories about him being a good student. The un-volunteered other "factors in the decision" could have just as easily been, he really wanted to go D1 but didn't think he would get an offer.

[Columbuseer]

Now THAT'S funny!

I think Chucky Humphries actually signed with WLU before decomitting...

forgot about him. Crutch actually spoke at the aliquippa sports banquet that year. Have a friend who grew up in aliquippa and still has family there. A lot more factors in the decision than the carry situation but he did not volunteer details. I was happy when he landed at iup. By all accounts a good young man.

[boatcapt]

He has signed loi so I would be very surprised if he reneged. Integrity appears to be very strong. I can only think of one player who did AFTER SIGNING LOI - Sincere Carry. Had a great state tourney and somehow gets info that Duquesne is interested. Leader of team and pre season all atlantic 10 when he decides to transfer two weeks ago to Kent state. Dukes fans screaming where is the loyalty! Mr. Duquesne - meet Mr. Karma. LOL

Carry and Bekelja, meanwhile, heard the Dukes might be interested, if Carry could get his release from West Liberty.

They were aware of Dambrot because of his background at Akron, a close-to-home mid-major. So when the release came through, Bekelja called Dambrot and set up a visit for the same day. Carry came and committed immediately.

So much for a signed LOI preventing coaches from recruting players!!!


I think Chucky Humphries actually signed with WLU before decomitting. A Twitter post from him on Nov 11, 2015 said Officially a Hilltopper!! Proud to sign with West Liberty University! #3 in the country!! And includes two pics of him pen in hand signing his letter of intent. From what I could find about 2015, Nov 11 was the NSD for basketball.

[Columbuseer]

Hope he shows at WLU...Just a little gun shy after a couple of highly touted players decommitted.

He has signed loi so I would be very surprised if he reneged. Integrity appears to be very strong. I can only think of one player who did AFTER SIGNING LOI - Sincere Carry. Had a great state tourney and somehow gets info that Duquesne is interested. Leader of team and pre season all atlantic 10 when he decides to transfer two weeks ago to Kent state. Dukes fans screaming where is the loyalty! Mr. Duquesne - meet Mr. Karma. LOL