West Liberty Hilltopper Basketball

[Columbuseer]

FYI Here is the statistical summary of the Charleston game.

A dummy's observations:
1. WLU played their guts out, especially on the offensive glass, getting an insane 47% of the opportunities. Tremendous effort. The ball did not stick nearly as much as in the previous losses.
2. Rare occurrences - Opponent had fewer turnovers that WLU (16 for WL versus 11 for UC) and more assists than WL (13 to 6)
3. Charleston was very effective in limiting the possessions to only 71. That is part of the script for competing with WLU, provided you can keep the game close.
4. Charleston limited number of three point attempts to 22. To WLU's credit, they looked for on-balance 3 point shots, so I credit the Charleston defense in limiting those.
5. Shooting woes continue to plague WL. If they shoot like last year (FGs and threes), they win 86-78. If they reach 1.26 points per possession like last year (instead of a very average 1.04), they win 89-78. If you are shooting poorly, you must get extra possessions by generating turnovers, avoiding WL turnovers, and winning the offensive glass. WL only achieved one of the three. Hence the loss.
6 WL typically averages over 20 assists. WL players need to get open for shots AND make the shots to get the assist numbers up. Otherwise, all that is left is a drive to the rim or a contested shot. WL has to be able to break down the opponent's half court defense for easy shots.

Statistic	West Liberty	at Charleston (WV)
POINTS	74	78
FGM	23	27
FGA	61	59
FGPCT	37.7%	45.8%
3FGM	7	10
3FGA	22	26
3FGPCT	31.8%	38.5%
FTM	21	14
FTA	27	21
FTPCT	77.8%	66.7%
REBOUND OFFENSIVE	18	9
REBOUND DEFENSIVE	27	23
REBOUND TOTAL	45	32
ASSISTS	6	13
TURNOVERS	16	11
BLOCKS	5	9
STEALS	5	9
Num Possessions	71	70
Points per Possession	1.04	1.11
Assists per 100 Possessions	8.45	18.57
Turnovers per 100 Possessions (< better)	22.54	15.71
Assist to Turnover Ratio	0.38	1.18
Offensive Rebound % of Missed Shots	47.4%	28.1%

[Columbuseer]

I agree that coach Howlett has a challenging job. Thankfully he spends tremendous amounts of time after work on recruiting. He is getting better athletes who are want to play the wlu style. As wlu worked the weave late in the game, I marveled at the skills of the players and the opponents' stress in switching from guarding frying pan to guarding the fire, so to speak. Each player just needs a sliver of an opening to get a layiup.
I think getting better athletes each year is one way to counteract the opponents' tactics. 2020 class and 2021 class are raising the bar imho. Guard the three and they will take you to the rim.

[Scrub]

I agree with you that opponents' recruiting practices can't be discounted as a factor. When Crutch was first implementing this system, there were teams that simply couldn't even get the ball across half court. It often looked like one of those lopsided middle school games that happen so often. But part of that was that his system was so foreign and unknown to WLU's opponents that they simply didn't know how to react (or if they knew, they didn't have the personnel to react with success).

In many ways, Howlett has a much harder job than Crutch. The system is a known quantity now and there's plenty of it on film. WLU doesn't surprise anyone anymore. Teams build specific plays for WLU (such as Osborne's "everybody is running sprints on the endline" set he was running at the end of the game last night). And, yes, teams recruit specific kinds of players that are WLU kryptonite or that can play in this style.

I'm always amazed at the fact that certain players seem to play better against WLU than they do on an ordinary night. Keith Williams of UC is the one that comes to mind right now. He came into last night averaging 8 ppg. He's a 4th or 5th option on UC's team on a regular night. But for the second straight year (I recall the same phenomenon last year), he's had a hugely productive game against the Hilltoppers. It's almost as though Williams isn't exactly the kind of recruit that Osborne and Osborne's system wants/needs, but they bring on a player like him as a WLU antidote. He's a 5th option on a normal night, but he's the go-to guy when WLU is in town. There are other players like this in the league as well (Daylin Lee from WVWC is another name that comes to mind).

So you may be right, Columbus. And that's what makes it a more difficult task for Howlett. He may have to find another new wrinkle to throw at teams that now know the script. He may need to innovate in news ways to find a new "market inefficiency" the way Crutch did when he created this system. Otherwise, WLU may end up a good-but-not-dominant member of the MEC.

[Columbuseer]

I am a dummy but imho, there are several factors at work:

- opponents are now recruiting players with an eye toward competing with wlu- good all around players who can shoot threes. More players that can shoot high 30s or low 40% from three and break the press. They are also milking the shot clock and avoiding playing too fast.

Wlu is shooting poorly with elite shooters in horrendous slumps. Last year 50% fg now 45%. Last year 41.3% from three, now 33.2%. Only elite scoring at the rim and offensive rebounds are keeping the losses close.

Generally speaking, possible shooting woes can be issues with shot selection/difficulty, mechanics, fatigue, residual effects of illness, etc. Have no info if any apply to wlu.

Unrelated, but Matthews of wvu was ill and lost 18 lbs, much endurance and his shot even after 2 weeks.

[Scrub]

And you longtime fans can correct my memory if it's wrong, but I recall that it was after one of these tough stretches (I wanna say it was the two-game losing streak in 2015-16) that Crutch started the platoon substitution pattern. Out of anger. He started wanting to send a message to his starters about their effort by sending in the entire second team all at once. And then he realized that doing so just made sense within his system regardless of whether he was angry at the starters or not. But I'm almost certain it was after a tough stretch that he radically changed his substitution patterns to try to change the team mojo. And in doing so, he accidentally fell into a whole new layer to his system. Let's see if Howlett has any tricks up his sleeve!

[Scrub]

For reference:

The last 3-game losing streak was in 2007-08 when they lost to UPJ, Fairmont, & Seton Hill in a row. That was Crutch's 4th year at the helm, and one of only 4 times they missed the Regional Tourney in the Crutch (and post-Crutch) era.

Without the PSAC playing any ball this year, they might make the tourney by default anyway. Might. But they're in serious danger of losing 4 in a row when red hot Glenville comes to the Hilltop on Monday. They have two days to figure something out. There has never been a 4-game losing streak in the Crutch and post-Crutch era. Stay tuned!

[Layton]

They might be toast, crazy

[Scrub]

Out of respect I've stayed outta this all season ...


But WTF is going on down there? Another loss?

Appreciate the respect, IUPbig. If I knew what the heck was going on, I'd let you know. Still trying to figure that out myself.

Can't shoot. Can't score. Can't turn anyone over. Sloppy with the ball. Ugly stuff. Looked like a very pedestrian team over the early part of this season. No identity whatsoever. Really hard to figure out why.

Naturally, the preseason workouts were likely clipped due to COVID. And I know other posters have theorized in the past that this system--if it is to work--requires all the pieces to be tuned just right. The only thing I can figure is that there just wasn't time to tune the pieces. Shrug. That's all I got. If that's true--I'll assume things get fixed sooner or later, and I'll just accept that even the great WLU machine can't defeat a global pandemic. ; )

But if it's something more than that (i.e. a culture issue, a Howlett issue, a roster issue, etc.), then I guess time will tell.

The run of dominance does have to end sometime--we're kidding ourselves if we think it can go on forever. All great runs do come to an end (Kentucky Wesleyan's did, so did Winona's, etc.). But I'm not ready for this one to end (especially without a championship banner to hang). Here's hoping it's COVID-lag, and they'll snap out of it soon enough!

[IUPbigINDIANS]

Out of respect I've stayed outta this all season ...


But WTF is going on down there? Another loss?

[Columbuseer]

Excel spreadsheet musings...

what if we were playing the wlu brand of ball at last year's season averages of:
1.26 points per possession?- we win 123-100.
shooting 3s at 42%?- we make 5 more threes and win 110-100.

I'm not even considering other stats that were better last year.

If we play team ball we win. If we continue to make bad decisions and me first decisions we are in for a long season. Wvsu should have taught us that other teams have players that can beat us.

[boatcapt]

If it ain't broke, don't try to fix it.

Statistical comparisons that say otherwise aside, clearly somthing is different between this years version of the Toppers and years past...PARTICULARLY over the last two games. There are many ways to get to the same statistical number. Similar to a QB who put's up a lot of passing yards when his team is behind vs one who puts them up when the game is on the line...At the end of the day, the box score says they had comperable performances but when you watch them play, clearly one was better. I think anyone who has watched WLU play over the last 10+ years and then watches their performance for most of this season would pretty quickly come to the conclusion that something is not right. When I was watching the first game this year I remember thinking, somthing doesn't feel right. Yea, they won big as they have many times in the past and most of the stats looked similar to years gone by, but it just didn't SEEM right. In every game over their first four, I came away with the same feeling...something just isn't right, but most of the time, the final game numbers said everything was as it should be. So even though I was concerned, I chalked most of my gut feel to different season, different players or me just misremembering and glossing over the rough spots of previous seasons. Last two games, at least for me, have shown that there is indeed somthing different about this years Hilltoppers.

To quote Christopher Walken "I've got a fever and the the only prescription is more cow bell!" If Walken was watching WLU this year, he might advise the Toppers that he again had a fever, and the only prescription was "More WLU style!"

Walken is very wise and the Toppers would do well to listen to him!!!!

[Columbuseer]

I had a feeling you might fact check me, Columbus. ; )

I was simply responding from gut feel . . . and it feels like Pat is going to the rack more and more frequently. Granted, he's talented enough to finish a reasonable amount of the time (which might account for his shooting percentage not suffering too badly), but as you've eloquently pointed out above, the ball sticking in hands and heading toward the rim without making extra passes causes the team's whole concept to break down. Perhaps the stats say others are worse offenders than Pat in this regard, but during important late possessions in each of the last two comeback attempts there loom large in my memory possessions when Pat seems to be trying to force it at the rack and running into 2-3 waiting defenders. It's possible those are anomalous possessions, while still being memorable for the situation in which they occur.

You are not alone. The problem with gut feelings, mine included, is that they are often... wrong. That is why I always like to look at the data after watching a game.
Some preconceived notions are:
-A dribble drive to the rim that misses by a skilled scorer is a worse decision than a stumbling, bumbling, putback attempt or walking call contested by 3 defenders after an offensive rebound.
- A costly turnover or missed shot at the end of the game is what cost the team the game

in football:
- you should always punt on 4th down if you are inside your 30 yd line.
- you should try to pin the opponent deep with a long kickoff
- you should practice punt returns so you have get better field position after opponent punts.

I mentioned the football items, because the data analysis of thousands of plays at every level indicate that to optimize your chances of winning:
- you should NEVER punt.
- You should always onside kick
- You should never try to field a punt or try to block a punt

Pulaski Academy High School of Little Rock follows the data. A school of < 500 students, they have won 8 Arkansas state titles in the last 10 years and was the #1 offense in the USA.
They beat a private school out of Richmond VA (football factory) that had 7 high D1 recruits.
They stomped Tyler TX who has 2200 students

Often they are leading by 35 points by halftime, which invokes the mercy rule of a continuous clock.

Bill Belichick has called the coach Kevin Kelley, "the best high school coach" in America and meets with him to talk about football.

Just some examples of preconceived notions or gut feelings that are wrong.

[boatcapt]

The data does not support your assertion. This season Patrick is the best shooter on the team this year both fgs and threes and it is not even close. Same for last night. Just look at the box score for wv state. His assist to turnover ratio was 2:1. I would look elsewhere for more blatant examples of bad decision making. There is plenty to go around. Personally, I see no point in naming names of more aggregious offenders.

Well, we seem to be more than willing to heap accolades, by name, when things are good, we should be willing to name names when things are not going well.

IMHO...The "answer" to WLU struggling is not to abandon the WLU style, the answer is to double down. MORE pressure on the press, MORE ball movement, MORE effort to find the open man. It clearly is not abandoning the style in favor of individual players playing 1 on 1.

We dodged a bullet in not having to play Glenville or we could be looking at three straight losses AND the prospect of playing a very game Charleston team!

Bottom line, what we've been doing the last two games is NOT working. When we go all AAU, we become a VERY beatable team. If we abandon our style when things get rough against UC, we will probably be looking at another loss.

[Scrub]

The data does not support your assertion. Patrick is the best shooter on the team this year both fgs and threes and it is not even close. Just look at the box score for wv state. His assist to turnover ratio was 2:1. I would look elsewhere for more obvious exmpkes

I had a feeling you might fact check me, Columbus. ; )

I was simply responding from gut feel . . . and it feels like Pat is going to the rack more and more frequently. Granted, he's talented enough to finish a reasonable amount of the time (which might account for his shooting percentage not suffering too badly), but as you've eloquently pointed out above, the ball sticking in hands and heading toward the rim without making extra passes causes the team's whole concept to break down. Perhaps the stats say others are worse offenders than Pat in this regard, but during important late possessions in each of the last two comeback attempts there loom large in my memory possessions when Pat seems to be trying to force it at the rack and running into 2-3 waiting defenders. It's possible those are anomalous possessions, while still being memorable for the situation in which they occur.

[Columbuseer]

In particular, it seems like Pat Robinson's decision making is doing nothing but declining. .

The data does not support your assertion. This season Patrick is the best shooter on the team this year both fgs and threes and it is not even close. Same for last night. Just look at the box score for wv state. His assist to turnover ratio was 2:1. I would look elsewhere for more blatant examples of bad decision making. There is plenty of that to go around. Also, I see no good that can come in naming players on a message board. It is obvious from the box score. I trust the players and coaches to improve the performance of the team. No one wants to win more than they do.