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  • #16
    Originally posted by WarriorVoice View Post

    What team (if any) keeps track of points per possession? It's not a stat I have ever seen in ANY official box score...
    It's not in box scores, but this is mentioned quite often in reports about Division I basketball games, and it is something they keep track of.

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    • #17
      Originally posted by WarriorVoice View Post

      What team (if any) keeps track of points per possession? It's not a stat I have ever seen in ANY official box score...
      I have no idea where Columbuseer gets those figures. He may keep a spreadsheet of his own for all I know. I've merely been taking his word for it (he seems like a trustworthy enough guy). : )

      Comment


      • #18
        Originally posted by Fightingscot82 View Post

        Scrub is bringing Sabremetrics to D2 basketball
        Nope. I'm just riding Columbuseer's coattails!

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        • #19
          Originally posted by Ship69 View Post

          If you're making 10 threes and losing a ball game, you'd better play slower or play better defense.
          You hit the nail on the head, Ship69. WLU's strategy is to maximize the number of possessions. I think the idea is that they figure they can a) outrun you eventually, or b) simply shoot a higher percentage than you, so the increased possessions gives the law of averages time to work itself out over the course of the game. But either way, the proven antidote to this strategy is when teams are able to SLOW IT DOWN. It's how Charleston and WVSU pulled off their wins against WLU earlier in the season. I suppose it's just easier said than done for a team that doesn't typically run a slow offense to change everything they do for one game and succeed doing it. That's the gamble I think WLU is often making. They figure even if uptempo teams want to slow it down, they likely won't do it well enough to stick with it. And again, UC and WVSU are the exceptions that prove the rule--they don't always play slow (heck WVSU never does), but they were able to change their style for one game and still execute it. Tough work, but a big win awaits if you can pull it off.

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          • #20
            Originally posted by Scrub View Post

            You hit the nail on the head, Ship69. WLU's strategy is to maximize the number of possessions. I think the idea is that they figure they can a) outrun you eventually, or b) simply shoot a higher percentage than you, so the increased possessions gives the law of averages time to work itself out over the course of the game. But either way, the proven antidote to this strategy is when teams are able to SLOW IT DOWN. It's how Charleston and WVSU pulled off their wins against WLU earlier in the season. I suppose it's just easier said than done for a team that doesn't typically run a slow offense to change everything they do for one game and succeed doing it. That's the gamble I think WLU is often making. They figure even if uptempo teams want to slow it down, they likely won't do it well enough to stick with it. And again, UC and WVSU are the exceptions that prove the rule--they don't always play slow (heck WVSU never does), but they were able to change their style for one game and still execute it. Tough work, but a big win awaits if you can pull it off.
            WVSU didn't have a choice. They played with 5 guys.

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            • #21
              Originally posted by IUPbigINDIANS View Post

              WVSU didn't have a choice. They played with 5 guys.
              I agree with you. It almost felt like the slow down WVSU employed was as much to give their 6-man rotation a chance to rest their legs for 20 seconds per possession as it was a strategic decision. Either way, they pulled it off magnificently.

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              • #22
                Most of these sort of upsets are the result of strong in-game coaching and steady ball handling. The coach has to control the impulses of players to run and hopefully he has a solid pure PG to minimize TO. Though somewhat out of date without a 3pt shot, the NC STATE upset of HOUSTON in the 82-83 NCAA title game is a classic example. Slow the game down UH took 55 shots vs 67 aver. leading to -30 pts against scoring average of 82.4. Handle the ball NC ST 6 TO vs UH 13. NC ST 7 STLS vs UH 0 STLS. Coaching smart to foul not a lot but the right players. HAKEEM was 6-7 from the line, his teammates 4-12. It really starts to work when the R&G team realizes that this particular game is being played entirely different and they cannot change it. Any video of the second half of that game will show an amazing COUGARS team playing scared against an overmatched WOLFPACK with nothing to lose.

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                • #23
                  Originally posted by Scrub View Post

                  I agree with you. It almost felt like the slow down WVSU employed was as much to give their 6-man rotation a chance to rest their legs for 20 seconds per possession as it was a strategic decision. Either way, they pulled it off magnificently.
                  Seems the trick is you have to start strong. Take the Shippensburg and Mercyhurst games against WL the past couple years. Both controlled the tempo the whole way. Both ended up in blowouts.

                  Last year I was at the WL vs Mercy game. You could see WL was visibly frustrated with the slow pace. Of course, Mercyhurst frustrates everybody. Mercyhurst broke WL's press better than any team I've ever seen. It was to the point it was hurting WL more than helping. Mercyhurst would break it and then reset. Too many teams break it and try and score immediately. That's exactly what WL wants you to do.

                  You get in to that 100 mph game with WL ... and you have no chance to beat them. Playing fast is havoc for most teams. Playing slow is havoc for WL. They aren't physically built to play a PSAC grinder against the elite teams. Conversely, PSAC teams aren't designed to play 100 mph.

                  I thought the most entertaining game of the regional last year was WL vs ESU. ESU plays more MEC than PSAC in style.

                  Comment


                  • #24
                    Originally posted by Ship69 View Post

                    I didn't say I objected to it. In fact, I said it was a classy move. What I did say is that it seemed to throw off our rotation for a while.
                    No you didnt sorry I wasnt saying it like that! I was just generally saying I dont like when coaches will say they didnt start/play seniors because it affects the "whole game". It doesn't. If they get down by 6 points quick, choke on a TO and put your starters in. Or wait until dead ball and have faith your starters are capable of overcoming 6 points. (Etc). I mean if you let the kids get down by 20.. that's on the coach haha but no reason a kid cant start on Senior night. Tom Izzo a few years ago had 4 seniors that never played... he started them all at the positions they were and started one regular starter at his position. They got announced, the crowd loved it. First dead ball.. he subbed in one starter allowing the senior to get another ovation on his way out. Next opportunity subbed out one more etc. But that's all I feel is needed. Let them have their moment. Most walkons dont care about getting a stat... that feeling of your name being announced and the crowd cheering and being on the court for the tip.. it's an experience in itself.

                    Comment


                    • #25
                      Originally posted by IUPbigINDIANS View Post

                      I thought the most entertaining game of the regional last year was WL vs ESU. ESU plays more MEC than PSAC in style.
                      Just think of what fun you're missing out on being a PSAC fan--that's what MEC games look like every night!

                      (Kidding of course--there's enjoyment to be had in watching a variety of basketball styles . . . as long as they're well executed . . . perhaps JR's teams notwithstanding?) ; )

                      Comment


                      • #26
                        Originally posted by Scrub View Post

                        Just think of what fun you're missing out on being a PSAC fan--that's what MEC games look like every night!

                        (Kidding of course--there's enjoyment to be had in watching a variety of basketball styles . . . as long as they're well executed . . . perhaps JR's teams notwithstanding?) ; )
                        I'll send you a link to a JR Gannon vs Mercyhurst in the MAC.

                        I think one year was like 43-37. Final.

                        That's the second media timeout in the MEC. Lol.

                        Comment


                        • #27
                          Originally posted by Scrub View Post

                          You hit the nail on the head, Ship69. WLU's strategy is to maximize the number of possessions. I think the idea is that they figure they can a) outrun you eventually, or b) simply shoot a higher percentage than you, so the increased possessions gives the law of averages time to work itself out over the course of the game. But either way, the proven antidote to this strategy is when teams are able to SLOW IT DOWN. It's how Charleston and WVSU pulled off their wins against WLU earlier in the season. I suppose it's just easier said than done for a team that doesn't typically run a slow offense to change everything they do for one game and succeed doing it. That's the gamble I think WLU is often making. They figure even if uptempo teams want to slow it down, they likely won't do it well enough to stick with it. And again, UC and WVSU are the exceptions that prove the rule--they don't always play slow (heck WVSU never does), but they were able to change their style for one game and still execute it. Tough work, but a big win awaits if you can pull it off.
                          WLU does two things that often go overlooked. They are masterful at "speeding up" most teams and they are more than willing to trade a 3 for a 2. They speed a team up by applying hard pressure in the back court. Teams that break the press often find a path to the basket for a layup. Net effect is a pretty short possession were the opponent plays fast and scores 2 points. WLU quickly runs the ball up and drains a 3. Then they apply hard back court pressure which the opponent can break for a running lay up. WLU again pushes the ball up and makes a quick 3. Opponent has done nothing wrong...in fact they can point to a lot of good. Broke the press twice and is 2 for 2 on easy layups. Problem is they are expending a lot of energy and are trailing 6 to 4.

                          The way to beat WLU is to pull the ball back when you break their press and run time off the clock (and rest) and play outside in defense. If you take the 3 away from WLU and force them inside, they become a very average offensive team.

                          Comment


                          • #28
                            Originally posted by IUPbigINDIANS View Post

                            Seems the trick is you have to start strong. Take the Shippensburg and Mercyhurst games against WL the past couple years. Both controlled the tempo the whole way. Both ended up in blowouts.

                            Last year I was at the WL vs Mercy game. You could see WL was visibly frustrated with the slow pace. Of course, Mercyhurst frustrates everybody. Mercyhurst broke WL's press better than any team I've ever seen. It was to the point it was hurting WL more than helping. Mercyhurst would break it and then reset. Too many teams break it and try and score immediately. That's exactly what WL wants you to do.

                            You get in to that 100 mph game with WL ... and you have no chance to beat them. Playing fast is havoc for most teams. Playing slow is havoc for WL. They aren't physically built to play a PSAC grinder against the elite teams. Conversely, PSAC teams aren't designed to play 100 mph.

                            I thought the most entertaining game of the regional last year was WL vs ESU. ESU plays more MEC than PSAC in style.
                            The gap between the top teams in the region (IUP and WL) and everybody else has most certainly shrunk. That said, it's become more evident to me the last couple years that teams in the PSAC have started to figure out ways to be competitive with WL, and even beat them with more frequency.

                            Think about the last two times IUP has played West Liberty... That 3OT game in the 2014 that IUP blew was played in the 70s. The 2015 regional championship game was a 77-74 final. Mercyhurst and Shippensburg have both blasted West Liberty on the national stage in the last couple years. East Stroud had every opportunity to win last year. West Chester and Kutztown have played competitive games in the regular season with West Liberty (one of the two beat WL at the ASRC).

                            I guess my point is that playing West Liberty in the NCAA tournament is no longer a death sentence like it used to be. It seems like across the board, the mystique of playing them is gone for most of the better schools in the PSAC. Those teams have proven they can get them off their game, control the play, frustrate them, and even beat them when the lights come on.

                            Comment


                            • #29
                              Originally posted by IUP24 View Post

                              The gap between the top teams in the region (IUP and WL) and everybody else has most certainly shrunk. That said, it's become more evident to me the last couple years that teams in the PSAC have started to figure out ways to be competitive with WL, and even beat them with more frequency.

                              Think about the last two times IUP has played West Liberty... That 3OT game in the 2014 that IUP blew was played in the 70s. The 2015 regional championship game was a 77-74 final. Mercyhurst and Shippensburg have both blasted West Liberty on the national stage in the last couple years. East Stroud had every opportunity to win last year. West Chester and Kutztown have played competitive games in the regular season with West Liberty (one of the two beat WL at the ASRC).

                              I guess my point is that playing West Liberty in the NCAA tournament is no longer a death sentence like it used to be. It seems like across the board, the mystique of playing them is gone for most of the better schools in the PSAC. Those teams have proven they can get them off their game, control the play, frustrate them, and even beat them when the lights come on.
                              You're absolutely right that they're not sneaking up on anyone anymore. There's certainly a playbook out there on how to beat them and/or at least compete with them.

                              It leads me to wonder if that explains why Howlett has been recruiting more athletic players in the past few years. If the system itself is no longer enough to shock teams (like it seemed to be in that run of years when they won 3 straight regional titles), then you need to recruit more than just "system players." Thinking back over Crutch's teams in the early part of this run, he rarely had guys with the athletic ability and one-on-one, beat-your-man ability of guys like Robinson & McKinney. Yes, there were some--Alex Falk, Corey Pelle, Cedric Harris--but it does seem like Crutch relied on the system working (and therefore simply needed to find guys who fit the system). Guys like Wolosinczuk, Morrow, Shetzer, Fortney, Grossenbacher, etc. were perfect for Crutch's system. But those were not guys who could win a one-on-one battle with a defender if the system had been frustrated. I'm just spitballing a bit here, but it certainly seems as though Howlett recognizes the need to rely not merely on the system. System first, which will win most games. But in a game where the system is being frustrated, it becomes more possible that a guy like Robinson can take over the game by getting in the lane and causing havoc of his own. I wonder if that is Howlett's answer to the fact that the top teams in the region are no longer fearing the system. Again, just spitballing a bit.

                              Comment


                              • #30
                                Originally posted by Scrub View Post

                                I have no idea where Columbuseer gets those figures. He may keep a spreadsheet of his own for all I know. I've merely been taking his word for it (he seems like a trustworthy enough guy). : )
                                It isn’t that difficult to estimate from a box score.

                                Fg made + TO + opp defensive rebounds +( FTA times some factor like 0.5). That gives a pretty decent estimate of possessions.

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