Atlantic Regional projections

[IUPbigINDIANS]

That's fair enough as far as ratings go according to the human factor. But what I'm more concerned with is how absent players affect my particular team. If Ship could have avoided the injuries and been at 16-3 rather than 14-5, things would look a lot rosier for the rest of the season. Obviously that could be said for several of the other teams that were missing players as well, but that doesn't change the equation for Ship. I'm really not in favor of ranking teams according to who is playing or isn't playing as I think that brings too much of a subjective element into the rankings. You go with what you have, and we'll see how records stack up at the end of the season.

It's tough ... very odd year. Look at a team like Gannon. I'm not sure they've been full strength all year. They've dealt with one thing after another for months now.

I'm actually shocked IUP is still winning. Consider 3 of the Opening Night 8-man rotation are gone. We may see Radford and Demo again eventually. But, I'll give Joe and his boys a lot of credit. Very few programs could have survived what they have so far. My fear is those legs eventually start getting tired -- especially playing 3 games a week. The legs go first and then the shooting follows. I'm sure he's being very delicate with how they practice -- which isn't a great thing, either.

[Ship69]

It's tough ... very odd year. Look at a team like Gannon. I'm not sure they've been full strength all year. They've dealt with one thing after another for months now.

I'm actually shocked IUP is still winning. Consider 3 of the Opening Night 8-man rotation are gone. We may see Radford and Demo again eventually. But, I'll give Joe and his boys a lot of credit. Very few programs could have survived what they have so far. My fear is those legs eventually start getting tired -- especially playing 3 games a week. The legs go first and then the shooting follows. I'm sure he's being very delicate with how they practice -- which isn't a great thing, either.

[jrshooter]

Something else strikes me about the Biss Factor.

Why are we assuming they win all, or even some, of the games they lost without him?

[Ship69]

Something else strikes me about the Biss Factor.

Why are we assuming they win all, or even some, of the games they lost without him?

I don't assume that at all. As I said they probably lose the Mercyhurst game anyway. I think there's an excellent chance they win the Cal game. Gotta believe Biss is worth a three-point difference. I don't think it's a coincidence that we're 3-3 with him out of the lineup and 11-2 with him in it. A halfway effective Carlos Carter probably could have gotten us an extra couple of points in the Kutztown game. Of course you can say the same thing about all the other teams who are missing players. But you definitely have higher chance of winning a game with your starters rather than without them. They're starters for a reason.

[jrshooter]

I don't assume that at all. As I said they probably lose the Mercyhurst game anyway. I think there's an excellent chance they win the Cal game. Gotta believe Biss is worth a three-point difference. I don't think it's a coincidence that we're 3-3 with him out of the lineup and 11-2 with him in it. A halfway effective Carlos Carter probably could have gotten us an extra couple of points in the Kutztown game. Of course you can say the same thing about all the other teams who are missing players. But you definitely have higher chance of winning a game with your starters rather than without them. They're starters for a reason.

I suppose, Ship. I just think I'm starting to see them for what they are. Nice ballclub, but not enough muscle for the postseason, and not nearly as outstanding from outside the arc as they have been in recent years.

[Ship69]

I suppose, Ship. I just think I'm starting to see then for what they are. Nice ballclub, but not enough muscle for the postseason, and not nearly as outstanding from outside the arc as they have been in recent years.

[Ship76]

[IUPbigINDIANS]

Terrible news.

That young man (while annoying to play against) plays with a ton of fire and emotion. I hope he heals up quick and is ready to go for the start of next year.

[Ship69]

That is horrible news for Ship and might change the entire trajectory of the second half of the East season. Nedrow is one of those rare things in modern BB, a willing role player who did the dirty work of setting screens, grabbing rebounds and battling the bulkiest players on opposing teams. Ship has other players who are fairly tall and can jump, but most are barely 200 pounds and under, so stopping a banger like Millersville's Caden Najawi tonight without getting into foul trouble will be a problem. Nedrow and Carlos Carter combined have averaged more than 20 points per game for Ship, so this makes it extremely important that Carter shows signs of further recovery from the shoulder injury sustained against Lock Haven. Rashon Johnson and Jake Biss are playing at a high level, but can't be expected to carry the team by themselves. This undoubtedly means more minutes for Youssef Diabate, who plays bigger than his 6-3 stature and is a tough defensive player. The problem there is that Diabate is a limited offensive threat, and at 205 pounds doesn't provide nearly the bulk of Nedrow. I suspect we'll see more minutes from Michael Dunn, an improving freshman, and Satchel Ball, a 6-2 freshman guard with a long wingspan, as well.

With Millersville and East Stroud largely healthy and (despite Ship's gutsy win over ESU on Saturday) playing good ball, and a four-game road stretch coming up in mid-February, this couldn't have come at a much worse time for the Raiders.

[IUPbigINDIANS]

There will be some movement tonight. Four big ones on the board in the Atlantic.

West Virginia State at West Liberty

Glenville State at Fairmont State (GSU won Round 1)

Millersville at Shippensburg

UPJ at California

[Ship69]

Terrible news.

That young man (while annoying to play against) plays with a ton of fire and emotion. I hope he heals up quick and is ready to go for the start of next year.

He apparently will not need an operation on the knee, which is good news.

[jrshooter]

That is indeed good news. And yes, it's a really bad night for Najawi to be coming to town.

And yes, I agree we've been spoiled during the Sleva/MacArthur years. But that is exactly the kind of production that is necessary to get beyond the PSAC on any given year.

[boatcapt]

There will be some movement tonight. Four big ones on the board in the Atlantic.

West Virginia State at West Liberty 84-96

Glenville State at Fairmont State (GSU won Round 1) 87-98

Millersville at Shippensburg 55-51

UPJ at California 71-70

Results

[IUPbigINDIANS]

Some changes since the last (MEN'S) update. The below chart includes all teams in the Atlantic Region with (7) or less losses. Teams 'usually' get a dance invite with (7) or less losses. The 8th loss typically puts you in hot water and in bubble land (unless you win the conference tournament).

PSAC

IUP	18-2
Millersville	18-4
Mercyhurst	18-4
Pitt-Johnstown	16-4
California	14-5
Shippensburg	14-6
East Stroudsburg	13-6
Slippery Rock	11-7
Gannon	10-7

MEC

West Liberty	19-2
Fairmont State	17-3
Charleston	16-4
West Virginia State	15-6

CIAA

Winston-Salem State	14-5
Virginia Union	15-6
Fayetteville State	14-6
Livinstone	10-6
Shaw	8-7

[Scrub]

Couple games tomorrow with Regional implications:

IUP heading to SRU (despite a mental block against Morrow Fieldhouse, IUP should be able to take care of business).
Millersville hosting ESU (ESU needs this one to stay alive in the race).
WLU heads to Charleston (that's typically been a tough place for the Hilltoppers to come out with a W).