Atlantic Regional projections

[IUPbigINDIANS]

But to be honest, Boat, there are some years where we're hoping the NCAA will step in and use discretion. For instance, no one wants to see a 3rd or even 4th meeting between IUP/Mercyhurst or WLU/Fairmont in the first round of the tourney. There was a year I recall (not sure which) where two teams were close in the standings and it would have made sense to swap them in order to avoid a 3rd meeting situation (it was something like swapping Wheeling & Mercy to avoid IUP playing Mercy again and WLU playing Wheeling again), but the NCAA went with the formula and we had to watch "IUP/Mercyhurst part 4" instead of a more interesting cross-conference matchup in round 1.

The last normal tournament IUP got paired with West Chester in Round 1 (third meeting) and then Mercyhurst in Round 2 (4th meeting). It was an exact duplicate of the week before in the PSAC Final Four. And, naturally Joe blew out Mercyhurst in the conference title game and then lost by 10 in the NCAAs. IUP and Mercyhurst split that year, 2-2, but the Lakers won the big one. They then went on to win the Regional.

That was a really good IUP -- and Mercyhurst -- team that year.

I'll still never forget the night cap of Round 1. Fairmont State had Mercyhurst dead in the water and blew it at the end of regulation. They went to OT and Mercyhurst won. IUP had hammered Fairmont State in Joe Retton earlier in the year. That was a painful weekend. I told everybody around me when Mercyhurst won in OT that our season was over. We weren't going to beat them again -- home court or not.

That was my first -- and, last -- time ever watching all four games in one day.

[Scrub]

That was my first -- and, last -- time ever watching all four games in one day.

The only time I was able to buy the full weekend pass and watch all the games was the year Wheeling hosted it. And if I remember correctly, that was the year that Mercyhurst upset Wheeling in game one. Kutztown also made a nice run that year if I recall. (Unfortunately, the tourneys sorta run together a bit in my mind, though--I'd have to look them up to remember more clearly).

[IUPbigINDIANS]

The only time I was able to buy the full weekend pass and watch all the games was the year Wheeling hosted it. And if I remember correctly, that was the year that Mercyhurst upset Wheeling in game one. Kutztown also made a nice run that year if I recall. (Unfortunately, the tourneys sorta run together a bit in my mind, though--I'd have to look them up to remember more clearly).

If you're going to bring that game up ... I was hammered for taking Mercyhurst over Wheeling in the Tourney Pick 'Em that year. I got the only winner. LOL. That was kind of the Lakers' coming out party. That was a stacked WJ team. Danny took the pretty rare No. 1 seed home loss in Rd. 1


I remember the last Regional here I went next door to the Hilton after the IUP/WCU game ... figuring Mercyhurst was going to hammer Fairmont. Then I checked the score and it was actually the opposite so I went back over to watch it. And, of course, as soon as I got back over there Mercyhurst got hot. Aside from the ending, the thing I'll never forget about that night-cap game was there was like 38 people in the entire arena. It was so odd. IUP played in the third game and then the place turned in to a ghost town.

That first day is a fun day if you're in to it. Being there in-person is a pretty long day even for the die-hards. The thing I HATED was IUP put a press row across from the benches. The whole day there was like 1 or 4 people sitting at this (almost) full-court length press row. Total waste of space and took away the up-close charm of the KCAC. I know it's an NCAA thing but it sucked.

[boatcapt]

Facts? You do realize the formula is a baseline right?

If all it is is a baseline, you can achieve effectively the same thing by stacking the teams based solely on winning %.

[boatcapt]

But to be honest, Boat, there are some years where we're hoping the NCAA will step in and use discretion. For instance, no one wants to see a 3rd or even 4th meeting between IUP/Mercyhurst or WLU/Fairmont in the first round of the tourney. There was a year I recall (not sure which) where two teams were close in the standings and it would have made sense to swap them in order to avoid a 3rd meeting situation (it was something like swapping Wheeling & Mercy to avoid IUP playing Mercy again and WLU playing Wheeling again), but the NCAA went with the formula and we had to watch "IUP/Mercyhurst part 4" instead of a more interesting cross-conference matchup in round 1.

Coaches build a schedule to achieve a desired result. These results are different for each team (some are built to get to 500...others are built in an effort to get home court seeding, etc). To build such a schedule, you need some level of certanty that all teams are going to be evaluated against the same metric...That if I build a particular schedule and achieve a particular result (and my opponents perform as expected), at the end of the year, I'm probably going to have a good shot at achieving my objective. When you allow the NCAA to come in after the fact and give some teams "bonus points" while holding other teams back for an unexplained reason, you are adding a variable that NO coach can ever really prepare for.

Imagine a senario were WLU should have been the #1 seed with IUP #2 and 7 and 8 teams are Mercyhurst and Fairmont. Nothing stopping the NCAA, in it's zeal to keep teams from playing a 3rd time from giving IUP secret "bonus" points and flipping them to #1 (along with hosting rights for the tourney)...That way EVERYONE is happy...IUP plays Fairmont in the first round and WLU plays Hurst...CRISIS AVERTED!!

[IUPbigINDIANS]

Coaches build a schedule to achieve a desired result. These results are different for each team (some are built to get to 500...others are built in an effort to get home court seeding, etc). To build such a schedule, you need some level of certanty that all teams are going to be evaluated against the same metric...That if I build a particular schedule and achieve a particular result (and my opponents perform as expected), at the end of the year, I'm probably going to have a good shot at achieving my objective. When you allow the NCAA to come in after the fact and give some teams "bonus points" while holding other teams back for an unexplained reason, you are adding a variable that NO coach can ever really prepare for.

Imagine a senario were WLU should have been the #1 seed with IUP #2 and 7 and 8 teams are Mercyhurst and Fairmont. Nothing stopping the NCAA, in it's zeal to keep teams from playing a 3rd time from giving IUP secret "bonus" points and flipping them to #1 (along with hosting rights for the tourney)...That way EVERYONE is happy...IUP plays Fairmont in the first round and WLU plays Hurst...CRISIS AVERTED!!

Hell, could be a 4th time for each.

[Ship69]

The last normal tournament IUP got paired with West Chester in Round 1 (third meeting) and then Mercyhurst in Round 2 (4th meeting). It was an exact duplicate of the week before in the PSAC Final Four. And, naturally Joe blew out Mercyhurst in the conference title game and then lost by 10 in the NCAAs. IUP and Mercyhurst split that year, 2-2, but the Lakers won the big one. They then went on to win the Regional.

That was a really good IUP -- and Mercyhurst -- team that year.

I'll still never forget the night cap of Round 1. Fairmont State had Mercyhurst dead in the water and blew it at the end of regulation. They went to OT and Mercyhurst won. IUP had hammered Fairmont State in Joe Retton earlier in the year. That was a painful weekend. I told everybody around me when Mercyhurst won in OT that our season was over. We weren't going to beat them again -- home court or not.

That was my first -- and, last -- time ever watching all four games in one day.

[boatcapt]

Hell, could be a 4th time for each.

I know...Happened to WLU also several years back with Wheeling. Played them twice during the regular season, once in the conf tourney than again in the NCAA tourney. Sucks but if the numbers say that is were each team deserves to be seeded, then that's were they deserve to be seeded. Imagine a senario were the PSAC has 1 & 2 and 7 & 8 seeds. What should be done then? Move the 7&8 up to 5&6 and the teams that EARNED 5&6 down to 7&8 to play much harder games against 1&2? Hardly seems fair...but in the NCAA's zeal to avoid 3rd or 4th games, it could happen.

We're getting to the point were seeding means nothing. Used to be an indication of how well you played on the season...#1 was the best, #2 second best on down to #8. Can't really say that now with the NCAA sliding teams around.

[Scrub]

Coaches build a schedule to achieve a desired result. These results are different for each team (some are built to get to 500...others are built in an effort to get home court seeding, etc). To build such a schedule, you need some level of certanty that all teams are going to be evaluated against the same metric...That if I build a particular schedule and achieve a particular result (and my opponents perform as expected), at the end of the year, I'm probably going to have a good shot at achieving my objective. When you allow the NCAA to come in after the fact and give some teams "bonus points" while holding other teams back for an unexplained reason, you are adding a variable that NO coach can ever really prepare for.

Imagine a senario were WLU should have been the #1 seed with IUP #2 and 7 and 8 teams are Mercyhurst and Fairmont. Nothing stopping the NCAA, in it's zeal to keep teams from playing a 3rd time from giving IUP secret "bonus" points and flipping them to #1 (along with hosting rights for the tourney)...That way EVERYONE is happy...IUP plays Fairmont in the first round and WLU plays Hurst...CRISIS AVERTED!!

The NCAA wouldn't change the host in your scenario; they would flip the 7 & 8, so WLU could host AND play Mercyhurst. It's really not that hard.

Plus, you're suggesting the NCAA does do this. I would argue they do not do this (hence WLU playing Wheeling, IUP/Mercyhurst, etc.) but we fans sometimes wish they would!

[boatcapt]

The NCAA wouldn't change the host in your scenario; they would flip the 7 & 8, so WLU could host AND play Mercyhurst. It's really not that hard.

Plus, you're suggesting the NCAA does do this. I would argue they do not do this (hence WLU playing Wheeling, IUP/Mercyhurst, etc.) but we fans sometimes wish they would!

The NCAA doesn't come out and admit to doing anything. But seemingly every year there are selections and seedings that make the collected masses scratch their heads. Some WLU examples of "questionable" NCAA seedings: 3 loss WLU being seeded behind a 4 loss team and TWO 5 loss teams...a 28-3 team being seeded behind a 26-3 team and a 2 loss team that WLU had just beaten to claim the conf tourney title. I'm sure there are other teams that have been seeded by the NCAA in a way that just make you go...HUUUUU??? Such as 19-9 VA State in over 22-9 UPJ or an NDC team being seeded behind a Fairmont team they had a better record than and had just beaten in route to their MEC tourney title.

[Golden89]

The NCAA wouldn't change the host in your scenario; they would flip the 7 & 8, so WLU could host AND play Mercyhurst. It's really not that hard.

Plus, you're suggesting the NCAA does do this. I would argue they do not do this (hence WLU playing Wheeling, IUP/Mercyhurst, etc.) but we fans sometimes wish they would!

I agree. I hate third & fourth meetings in the first round. It's a pretty lame way to start the tournament. At least swap the lower seeds if it makes sense to avoid it. But I contend that the NCAA doesn't do this - it seems to happen way too much.

I can give my own GU story ... Gannon swept Slippery Rock in the 2014-15 regular season and blew out the Rock in the conference quarterfinals on their way to the PSAC championship. Of course, Gannon played SRU in the first round and lost.

This isn't the big tournament, but in D-I any regular season rematches are not allowed in round 1 and conference foes cannot meet until either the Elite 8 (or sometimes the Sweet 16 if it's unavoidable).

[Golden89]

If you're going to bring that game up ... I was hammered for taking Mercyhurst over Wheeling in the Tourney Pick 'Em that year. I got the only winner. LOL. That was kind of the Lakers' coming out party. That was a stacked WJ team. Danny took the pretty rare No. 1 seed home loss in Rd. 1


I remember the last Regional here I went next door to the Hilton after the IUP/WCU game ... figuring Mercyhurst was going to hammer Fairmont. Then I checked the score and it was actually the opposite so I went back over to watch it. And, of course, as soon as I got back over there Mercyhurst got hot. Aside from the ending, the thing I'll never forget about that night-cap game was there was like 38 people in the entire arena. It was so odd. IUP played in the third game and then the place turned in to a ghost town.

That first day is a fun day if you're in to it. Being there in-person is a pretty long day even for the die-hards. The thing I HATED was IUP put a press row across from the benches. The whole day there was like 1 or 4 people sitting at this (almost) full-court length press row. Total waste of space and took away the up-close charm of the KCAC. I know it's an NCAA thing but it sucked.

That's because the start times are 2 1/2 hours apart no matter how long the game before it goes. The officials usually are a little less whistle-happy and the game goes about 1 hour and 45 minutes, meaning 45 minutes between games. People don't want to wait that long and clear out before the nightcap. I remember that Mercyhurst team well. I picked them to win the region in the Pick 'Em and also got hammered. Gary is a tough coach to play against in a one and done format. They escaped Fairmont and the defense was outstanding against IUP & WLU and Patrick Smith turned into an NBA player for two days. IIRC they gave the eventual national champ all they could handle in the national QF.

[IUPalum]

If all it is is a baseline, you can achieve effectively the same thing by stacking the teams based solely on winning %.

[IUPbigINDIANS]

While enjoying the argument ...

Just sitting here waiting for SRU, Notre Dame and Shaw to win the three conference tournaments.

The bubble life would be very nerve-wracking this year. Several outsiders this year capable of a big week ... SRU, ND, West Chester. And, we all know the favorite rarely wins the CIAA.

[Scrub]

While enjoying the argument ...

Just sitting here waiting for SRU, Notre Dame and Shaw to win the three conference tournaments.

The bubble life would be very nerve-wracking this year. Several outsiders this year capable of a big week ... SRU, ND, West Chester. And, we all know the favorite rarely wins the CIAA.

Glenville caught fire in the MEC tourney last year, and it took a miracle last-second three by Malik McKinney to keep GSC from a shot at Fairmont in the championship (and a shot at playing the role of bid thief). NDC, Charleston, & Glenville all have the ability to play spoiler at the tourney (as do SRU, WCU, Ship, etc.). But you're right--the bubble is a much more precarious place to be this year than most years it seems.