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(In order of tip-off)
(3) Virginia State vs. (6) West Chester
(2) Gannon vs. (7) East Stroudsburg
(1) West Liberty vs. (8) Bluefield State
(4) Fayetteville State vs. (5) Fairmont State
All four games have some intrigue ... which is rarely the case on Day 1.
If I had to guess, the 'game of the day' will be Gannon vs. East Stroudsburg. Both are deep, fast and athletic. Both also have some, well, 'emotional' players and both can get pretty chippy.
Gannon won the lone meeting, in Erie, 105-93.
Of note - and it's going to again be a major item - ESU star Lakeem McAaliley played just 15 minutes in that game due to foul trouble.
I fully suspect Gannon will go right at him and try to rack up some early fouls. McAaliley can be aggressive. This time it's on a neutral court.
Gannon isn't going to wear out ESU (like it does to most other teams). The Warriors also have a deep rotation and won't be intimated in the least by being pressured (they do, 'kind of' the same thing).
My Round 1 predictions:
The middle two games will be played at 100 mph. The first game, however, will be an old fashioned fist fight. The CIAA hasn't won many games in the Regional of late, but make no mistake its teams can play. West Chester can be really, really good. Some days. Other days the Rams can look fairly average. I don't like WCU against the 'system' teams, but I love them against a fellow muscle team. WEST CHESTER advances. But, it will be close. VSU has some dudes.
Game 2 has upset special written all over it. East Stroudsburg is better than its record. However, that's also part of the problem. The Warriors should have posted a better record than 21-8. ESU also comes in to the tournament in a bit of a funk -- losing 3 of its past 5 games. That said, they've had more than a week to get mentally reset. The 'system' teams psych out most opponents before the game even starts. Gannon won't have that edge on the Warriors. ESU is just as deep and probably actually more athletic than Gannon (slightly). There are two major risks in betting ESU in this game: 1) can McAaliley stay out of foul trouble, and 2) can McAaliley stay composed (and avoid costly technical fouls)? Gannon is going to try and agitate him. I have no doubt. Will it work? Knights by 4-5 points.
Game 3 is similar to Game 2 in many regards. West Liberty isn't going to surprise Bluefield State. The first meeting was very close. Obviously with BSU being coached by a former Hilltopper great, they'll be well prepared. WL just has better players. The home gym will be amped up. The lights get a lot brighter on Saturday. WL has been there and done that. Bluefield State hasn't. That's the big difference. WL by 12-15 points.
The night cap on Day 1 is always a wild one. It's also typically played in front of about 24 people. Fairmont State played a 3 OT thriller to win the MEC Championship. Fayetteville State cannot be more different than West Liberty. FSU will ground and pound. They have monsters underneath. They will play extremely physical. Whichever team controls the pace will win this game. It's that simple. Fairmont State isn't going to win a street fight-type game. That's what Fayetteville State wants. This will be closer than many think. Fairmont State is better than a 5-seed. Keep that in mind. Falcons win by 7-8 points. However, this game will take its toll, physically, on Fairmont State. Keep that in mind on Day 2.
(3) Virginia State vs. (6) West Chester
(2) Gannon vs. (7) East Stroudsburg
(1) West Liberty vs. (8) Bluefield State
(4) Fayetteville State vs. (5) Fairmont State
All four games have some intrigue ... which is rarely the case on Day 1.
If I had to guess, the 'game of the day' will be Gannon vs. East Stroudsburg. Both are deep, fast and athletic. Both also have some, well, 'emotional' players and both can get pretty chippy.
Gannon won the lone meeting, in Erie, 105-93.
Of note - and it's going to again be a major item - ESU star Lakeem McAaliley played just 15 minutes in that game due to foul trouble.
I fully suspect Gannon will go right at him and try to rack up some early fouls. McAaliley can be aggressive. This time it's on a neutral court.
Gannon isn't going to wear out ESU (like it does to most other teams). The Warriors also have a deep rotation and won't be intimated in the least by being pressured (they do, 'kind of' the same thing).
My Round 1 predictions:
The middle two games will be played at 100 mph. The first game, however, will be an old fashioned fist fight. The CIAA hasn't won many games in the Regional of late, but make no mistake its teams can play. West Chester can be really, really good. Some days. Other days the Rams can look fairly average. I don't like WCU against the 'system' teams, but I love them against a fellow muscle team. WEST CHESTER advances. But, it will be close. VSU has some dudes.
Game 2 has upset special written all over it. East Stroudsburg is better than its record. However, that's also part of the problem. The Warriors should have posted a better record than 21-8. ESU also comes in to the tournament in a bit of a funk -- losing 3 of its past 5 games. That said, they've had more than a week to get mentally reset. The 'system' teams psych out most opponents before the game even starts. Gannon won't have that edge on the Warriors. ESU is just as deep and probably actually more athletic than Gannon (slightly). There are two major risks in betting ESU in this game: 1) can McAaliley stay out of foul trouble, and 2) can McAaliley stay composed (and avoid costly technical fouls)? Gannon is going to try and agitate him. I have no doubt. Will it work? Knights by 4-5 points.
Game 3 is similar to Game 2 in many regards. West Liberty isn't going to surprise Bluefield State. The first meeting was very close. Obviously with BSU being coached by a former Hilltopper great, they'll be well prepared. WL just has better players. The home gym will be amped up. The lights get a lot brighter on Saturday. WL has been there and done that. Bluefield State hasn't. That's the big difference. WL by 12-15 points.
The night cap on Day 1 is always a wild one. It's also typically played in front of about 24 people. Fairmont State played a 3 OT thriller to win the MEC Championship. Fayetteville State cannot be more different than West Liberty. FSU will ground and pound. They have monsters underneath. They will play extremely physical. Whichever team controls the pace will win this game. It's that simple. Fairmont State isn't going to win a street fight-type game. That's what Fayetteville State wants. This will be closer than many think. Fairmont State is better than a 5-seed. Keep that in mind. Falcons win by 7-8 points. However, this game will take its toll, physically, on Fairmont State. Keep that in mind on Day 2.
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