Regional Rankings 2018

[schnautza]

Re: Regional Rankings 2018

This week's summary:

1. Ferris State (28-1, 26-1) - won 117-66 at home vs. Purdue Northwest; won 75-64 at home vs. GVSU
2. Findlay (23-3, 22-3) - won 88-61 at home vs. Hillsdale
3. Bellarmine (22-2, 21-2) - won 82-67 at home vs Indianapolis;
4. Lake Superior State (21-6, 19-6) - won 85-73 at home vs GVSU; won 92-84 at home vs. Purdue Northwest
5. Hillsdale (19-8, 19-8) - lost 61-88 at Findlay
6. Walsh (15-7, 15-7) - lost 60-67 at Lake Erie
7. Drury (17-6, 16-6) - won 65-61 at home vs Rockhurst; lost 75-76 at William Jewell
8. Southern Indiana (17-10, 16-8) - won 68-67 at UWP; lost 52-73 at Lewis
9. UIndy (18-8, 18-7) - lost 67-82 at Bellarmine; won 82-73 at home vs. UWP
10. Malone (16-9, 16-9) - lost 64-70 at Lake Erie

"bubble" teams:
Truman State (17-9, 17-9) - won 90-85 at home vs William Jewell; won 86-47 at home vs. Ill-Springfield
Ashland (17-9, 17-9) - won 82-64 at home vs Saginaw Valley;won 81-57 at home vs Northwood
Alderson-Broaddus (18-10, 18-10) - lost 67-75 at Ohio Dominican; lost 77-87 at Cedarville
Maryville (17-7. 17-7) - won 76-71 at Ill-Springfield; won 79-70 at home vs. UMSL
William Jewell (16-8, 16-8) - lost 85-90 at Truman; won 76-75 at home vs. Drury

[Kingfish]

Re: Regional Rankings 2018



I agree with 1 thru 7 but congrats to Truman ( the only team other than USI itself I thought could knock them out of the 8 seed) for doing exactly what it had to do by winning both games last week. Ashland and Maryville went 2-0 also but they both have lost to Indy who lost to USI twice. Malone also lost to USI.


Truman is the one bubble team to beat indy along with going 4-2 against the 5 teams USI recently lost to. Indy only went 3-3 vs same teams. I say USI 9, Indy 10, Ashland 11. Maryville can't beat a team above 500 (1 this yr).

No team losing 5 of its last 6 should be in the regional, but it seems though USI players and fans want badly to fire the wod, the other 38 teams want desparetlyto keep him there. Every team except Ashland, Maryville, and Truman from 5 thru 18 lost at least 1 game last week. You gotta do better than 1-1 if USI does 1-1. Looks like they want this cupcake to stay right where he is. No threat on the road and can lose by 40 at home.

The dudes going from "1and done" to "none and done". He needs to stay home and learn to both recruit and coach; go to jail for theft or forefeit half that $100k salary for non performance.

[schnautza]

Re: Regional Rankings 2018

Based solely on performance indicators, which does not factor in head-to-head or margin of win, USI (79 nationally) is just slightly ahead of the trio of Walsh, UIndy, and Ashland, who are all a razor's edge from each other (85, 86, and 87 nationally). The trio of Malone, Truman, and Maryville are just a hair behind them (92, 93, 94). It's amazing how close all 7 of these teams are sitting right now. That's 7 teams regionally spanning 15 places nationwide - as tight of a race as you would ever see. I would not want to be on the committee to pick who grabs the #7 and #8 seeds.

Was Truman's clean sweep enough to get them in the top 8?

[DJ Silky Panties]

Re: Regional Rankings 2018

I think Walsh drops to 8 or out. Uindy in. Usi out and Truman still out.

[schnautza]

Re: Regional Rankings 2018

I think it's also worth noting that USI picked up the only road win out of all the ranked and bubble teams, though it was only a 1-pt win. The most confusing part about this is how many teams lost or split the week and who they lost to.

My best prediction:
1. Ferris
2. Findlay
3. BU
4. LSSU
5. Hillsdale (but they are barely ahead of #6 at this point)
6. Drury (1 pt road loss at WJ didn't hurt too much, so they can actually move up a spot with Walsh losing)
7. Truman (barely edging out #8 thanks to 2 wins)
8. USI (only team to get a road win this week, and still has 2 wins over UIndy who is only behind by a fraction of a hair. Due to all other teams with losses, holding onto the very shaky #8)
9. UIndy (loss at BU and home win vs UWP are comparable to what USI already logged earlier this season and they have 2 losses to USI. Holding firm at #9)
10. Walsh

out: Malone
runners up: Maryville & Ashland

I also debated on putting Truman at 9 and moving the others up one. But this is a very difficult week to make these decisions.

EDIT: if the committee factors in performance over last 10 games, USI drops to #9, letting UIndy pass by. We aren't really sure if they are considering that this season since USI has been ranked higher than expected twice already.

[DJ Silky Panties]

Re: Regional Rankings 2018

I think it's also worth noting that USI picked up the only road win out of all the ranked and bubble teams, though it was only a 1-pt win. The most confusing part about this is how many teams lost or split the week and who they lost to.

My best prediction:
1. Ferris
2. Findlay
3. BU
4. LSSU
5. Hillsdale (but they are barely ahead of #6 at this point)
6. Drury (1 pt road loss at WJ didn't hurt too much, so they can actually move up a spot with Walsh losing)
7. Truman (barely edging out #8 thanks to 2 wins)
8. USI (only team to get a road win this week, and still has 2 wins over UIndy who is only behind by a fraction of a hair. Due to all other teams with losses, holding onto the very shaky #8)
9. UIndy (loss at BU and home win vs UWP are comparable to what USI already logged earlier this season and they have 2 losses to USI. Holding firm at #9)
10. Walsh

out: Malone
runners up: Maryville & Ashland

I also debated on putting Truman at 9 and moving the others up one. But this is a very difficult week to make these decisions.

EDIT: if the committee factors in performance over last 10 games, USI drops to #9, letting UIndy pass by. We aren't really sure if they are considering that this season since USI has been ranked higher than expected twice already.

[TSU_Mike59]

Re: Regional Rankings 2018

FWIW, last 10 isn't something the men's committee uses as an official category (unlike the women, who do):

[schnautza]

Re: Regional Rankings 2018

Counterpoint to that argument is that USI has a 51.96% opponent record (2nd only to Findlay among teams with winning records in our region). UIndy has 47.05%. I would imagine that this balances with the regional records (16-8 vs 18-7).

I could see this pendulum swinging either direction and wouldn't be surprised either way.

[KnightStalker]

Re: Regional Rankings 2018

I think it's also worth noting that USI picked up the only road win out of all the ranked and bubble teams, though it was only a 1-pt win. The most confusing part about this is how many teams lost or split the week and who they lost to.

My best prediction:
1. Ferris
2. Findlay
3. BU
4. LSSU
5. Hillsdale (but they are barely ahead of #6 at this point)
6. Drury (1 pt road loss at WJ didn't hurt too much, so they can actually move up a spot with Walsh losing)
7. Truman (barely edging out #8 thanks to 2 wins)
8. USI (only team to get a road win this week, and still has 2 wins over UIndy who is only behind by a fraction of a hair. Due to all other teams with losses, holding onto the very shaky #8)
9. UIndy (loss at BU and home win vs UWP are comparable to what USI already logged earlier this season and they have 2 losses to USI. Holding firm at #9)
10. Walsh

out: Malone
runners up: Maryville & Ashland

I also debated on putting Truman at 9 and moving the others up one. But this is a very difficult week to make these decisions.

EDIT: if the committee factors in performance over last 10 games, USI drops to #9, letting UIndy pass by. We aren't really sure if they are considering that this season since USI has been ranked higher than expected twice already.

I don't think Walsh drops out of the top 8, and USI does (it may well drop out of top 10.)

[DJ Silky Panties]

[schnautza]

Re: Regional Rankings 2018

Agreed. There will be no NCAA if we lose Friday. At minimum, one GLVC win will be needed as a win against Drury would be the best we've had in a while and could give us a boost in rankings.

[Knightmoves]

Re: Regional Rankings 2018

Update:

1 Ferris State 28-1 26-1
2 Findlay 23-3 22-3
3 Bellarmine 22-2 21-2
4 Lake Superior State 21-6 19-6
5 Hillsdale 19-8 19-8
6 Drury 17-6 16-6
7 Southern Indiana 17-10 16-8
8 UIndy 18-8 18-7
9 Walsh 15-7 15-7
10 Truman 17-9 17-9

You do have to chuckle at USI still being 7, besides Indy , Walsh and Truman, there is also Maryville, William Jewell, Lewis, Ashland, Northern Michigan, Wayne State, and Michigan Tech who would be favored to beat USI on a neutral court.

[KnightStalker]

Re: Regional Rankings 2018

Update:

1 Ferris State 28-1 26-1
2 Findlay 23-3 22-3
3 Bellarmine 22-2 21-2
4 Lake Superior State 21-6 19-6
5 Hillsdale 19-8 19-8
6 Drury 17-6 16-6
7 Southern Indiana 17-10 16-8
8 UIndy 18-8 18-7
9 Walsh 15-7 15-7
10 Truman 17-9 17-9

You do have to chuckle at USI still being 7, besides Indy , Walsh and Truman, there is also Maryville, William Jewell, Lewis, Ashland, Northern Michigan, Wayne State, and Michigan Tech who would be favored to beat USI on a neutral court.

Only odd thing is USI hanging in there at 7. Must only be explained by their two victories over Indy. Committee just can't put Indy ahead of them and yet thinks Indy is better than Walsh Truman, etc. A team that has lost 5 of their last 6 just really doesn't belong.

[WKYDave]

Re: Regional Rankings 2018

Only odd thing is USI hanging in there at 7. Must only be explained by their two victories over Indy. Committee just can't put Indy ahead of them and yet thinks Indy is better than Walsh Truman, etc. A team that has lost 5 of their last 6 just really doesn't belong.

Don't understand the committee hang up on USI and Indy, etc.

I understand committee may not look at record for last 10 games but a look a USI before February compared to February is telling...

Lewis...USI wins by 9 in OT (H) on 11/20.....USI loses by 21 (V) on 2/24....a 30 point swing
Bellarmine...USI loses by 16 (V) on 1/15....USI loses by 45 (H) on on 2/10....a 29 point swing
UWP... USI wins by 19 (H) on 1/25....USI wins by 1 (V) on 2/22.... a 18 point swing

Add to this loses to Ill-Springfield and Rockhurst (teams in the bottom 1/3 PI in region) in February and you have a team obviously not the same as earlier in the year.

USI beat Indy on 12/2 and 1/11.

[schnautza]

Re: Regional Rankings 2018

I thought I was really sticking my neck out with that prediction but the only thing I had wrong was putting Truman too high, shifting USI, UIndy, and Walsh a place. I'm honestly a bit surprised myself.