Early Season Schedule Difficulty

[Argonut]

The 2023 regionals had two teams with higher values (harder start) win two and the lower value teams (easier start) also won two games. This is consistent with the past 6 years where the highers won 9 and lowers won 10. The remaining 4 teams have an average value of 10.25, which is lower than the 2023 playoff field of 10.57 and lower than the entire 2023 D2 average of 11.38. The remaining teams have two with average difficulty early starts and two with easy starts.

As for the last 6 years of semis the highers have won 7 and the lowers won 4 with one game between teams with the same point value. This bodes well for Mines and the victor of the other game will carry the early schedule matching hashtag of the last 6 champions into the title game. The point values and hashtags of the teams are below.

(11) Kutztown @ Colorado Mines (12)

# (9) Lenior-Rhyne @ Harding (9) #

[Argonut]

The semifinal games followed the trend in the last six years with the higher point value team winning. (Mines-point value 12) For the finals the lower value teams have won 4 of the last six title games, which bodes well for lower value Harding (point value 9).

This year’s title game also matches the last six year’s champions in that no champion had a point value greater than 13.

This year’s title game can also produce a champion that matches the early schedule elements of the last six champions: i.e., point value less than 13 and blowing out at least two of their first three opponents. Harding is the only one that fits this criteria and it will be interesting to see if the Bison keep this streak going for a seventh year in a row.

This matchup is why the D2 playoffs are so good and interesting: two unbeaten teams who have run through a gauntlet of regular season and playoff opponents in impressive fashion and will produce a new first time champion instead of the usual suspects that are found in the other NCAA divisions. Next Saturday can’t come soon enough!

[Argonut]

Harding Bisons win makes it 5 of last 7 the lower point value team won the title game and its seven in a row that the champion had a point value 13 or less and blew out at least two of their first three opponents to start the season.

[DawgUp]

Argo thanx for this! This has been good reading for the secret stat nerd crew : )

[KleShreen]

Harding Bisons win makes it 5 of last 7 the lower point value team won the title game and its seven in a row that the champion had a point value 13 or less and blew out at least two of their first three opponents to start the season.

Starting to look like giving yourself the easiest path possible is the biggest benefit of anything. Easier to be healthy at the end of the year if you're not being challenged at the beginning of it.

[Argonut]

I have reprinted below the last seven champions first three games along with their early schedule point value and the record of their opponents for that year. It’s clearly obvious that the champions for each year are pounding their opponents from the opening kickoff and the easier early schedule gets them off to great starts that help carry them to the title. The similarities are quite stunning when you see it together.

2016: NW Mo. St. (12)

@ Emporia St. (11-2) win 41-14
vs. Washburn (7-5) win 41-7
vs. Neb.-Kearney (1-10) win 52-14

2017: Texas A & M Commerce (10)

@ North Ala. (5-5) win 8-7
vs. Wm. Jewell (2-9) win 59-6
vs. E. New Mexico (8-2) win 51-22

2018: Valdosta St. (12)

vs. Albany St. (7-4) win 45-14
neutral Ft. Valley (2-8) win 55-6
@ North Ala. (8-4) win 58-14

2019: West Fla. (10)

@ Carson-Newman (9-3) lose 13-20
@ Shorter (1-10) win 42-14
vs. Va.-Lynchburg (2-7) win 69-0

2021: Ferris St. (13)

vs. Findlay (7-4) win 54-14
@ Ashland (10-2) win 45-19
vs. Saginaw Valley (8-3) win 47-45 (OT)

2022: Ferris St. (9)

vs. Central Wash. (6-4) win 36-20
@ Lenoir-Rhyne (8-3) win 27-5
vs. Waldorf (7-4) win 69-3

2023: Harding (9)

@ So. Nazarene (6-5) win 53-20
vs. Okla. Baptist (6-5) win 49-10
vs. Ark.-Monticello (2-9) win 59-19

[Argonut]

Final thoughts and notes on Early Schedule Difficulty

1. It is critical to get off to good start in the first three games if you wish to win the title. All of the last 7 champions have started 3-0 except for 2019 West Florida that started 2-1.

2. The average early schedule difficulty value for the last 7 champions is 10.71, which is below the 2023 D2 average of 11.38 for all of D2 and also below the average of 11.09 for all of the last 7 playoff fields. The champions are starting easier than all of D2 and of all the last 7 playoff fields.

3. Of the teams that made the playoffs with 3 losses in the last 7 years nearly all of them got off to a good start with the exception of 2017 Harding which started 0-3, made it in at 8-3 and went 3-1 in the playoffs. The breakdown of the 18 teams that made the playoffs with 3 losses in the last 7 years is below:

3-0: 2 teams

2-1: 11 teams

1-2: 4 teams

0-3: 1 team (Harding)

4. No team has won the title in the last 7 years with a difficulty value greater than 13 and as the previous post shows all of the eventual champions were blasting at least 2 of their first three opponents to start the season. While you may be able to get into to the playoffs with a cold start, you won't win the title with a cold start.

5. I noticed that West Florida is traveling to Grand Valley in the 2024 early season and it will be interesting to see of the coaches scheduled some easier games to balance out this difficult one. The game date of September 28 may fall out of the first three games for West Florida and may not count for purposes of the early schedule difficulty value. Same goes for Grand Valley depending on their schedule prior to the 28th.

6. I didn't expect to find anything meaningful when I started this research project, but I was surprised to find the repeatable results as detailed in this and my prior posts.

7. I will be going over the early schedules for 2024 when they are released to determine the early schedule difficulty values again to see who in the D2 field looks to challenge Harding for the title by using this early schedule metric.

[KleShreen]

Final thoughts and notes on Early Schedule Difficulty

1. It is critical to get off to good start in the first three games if you wish to win the title. All of the last 7 champions have started 3-0 except for 2019 West Florida that started 2-1.

2. The average early schedule difficulty value for the last 7 champions is 10.71, which is below the 2023 D2 average of 11.38 for all of D2 and also below the average of 11.09 for all of the last 7 playoff fields. The champions are starting easier than all of D2 and of all the last 7 playoff fields.

3. Of the teams that made the playoffs with 3 losses in the last 7 years nearly all of them got off to a good start with the exception of 2017 Harding which started 0-3, made it in at 8-3 and went 3-1 in the playoffs. The breakdown of the 18 teams that made the playoffs with 3 losses in the last 7 years is below:

3-0: 2 teams

2-1: 11 teams

1-2: 4 teams

0-3: 1 team (Harding)

4. No team has won the title in the last 7 years with a difficulty value greater than 13 and as the previous post shows all of the eventual champions were blasting at least 2 of their first three opponents to start the season. While you may be able to get into to the playoffs with a cold start, you won't win the title with a cold start.

5. I noticed that West Florida is traveling to Grand Valley in the 2024 early season and it will be interesting to see of the coaches scheduled some easier games to balance out this difficult one. The game date of September 28 may fall out of the first three games for West Florida and may not count for purposes of the early schedule difficulty value. Same goes for Grand Valley depending on their schedule prior to the 28th.

6. I didn't expect to find anything meaningful when I started this research project, but I was surprised to find the repeatable results as detailed in this and my prior posts.

7. I will be going over the early schedules for 2024 when they are released to determine the early schedule difficulty values again to see who in the D2 field looks to challenge Harding for the title by using this early schedule metric.

It will be GV's 4th games of the year. GV starts with home vs Central State, road at Pueblo, home vs UW-La Crosse.

[Runnin' Cat]

Is the difficulty number dynamic? Does it change the factor for each team as results come in? What are the first few games' difficulty schedule calculated on?

[KleShreen]

Is the difficulty number dynamic? Does it change the factor for each team as results come in? What are the first few games' difficulty schedule calculated on?

He uses the last season's results of teams to calculate the number, and then after the regular season is done, he re-calculated using this season's results.

[LeftSider]

3-0: 2 teams

2-1: 11 teams

1-2: 4 teams

0-3: 1 team (Harding)

none of you will ever know the euphoria of making the playoffs after getting beat by SNU. 0-3 and still getting in is insanity.

and to think, a drug test going the other way could have meant that all this math is irrelevant that year.

Hahah I appreciate this stat breakdown, great stuff!

[BisonOL]

none of you will ever know the euphoria of making the playoffs after getting beat by SNU. 0-3 and still getting in is insanity.

and to think, a drug test going the other way could have meant that all this math is irrelevant that year.

Hahah I appreciate this stat breakdown, great stuff!

Yeah certainly no way to prove it but sans one failed test I think Harding wins it all in 2017

[Brandon]

I haven't read through the thread. Instead of looking at it in terms of what the schedule, could it simply be an indicator of the strength of the best teams? It would make sense that the best teams get out to fast starts.