West Liberty Hilltopper Basketball

[Columbuseer]

You would think that the number of possessions would be the same for each team, If you possessed the ball even for just an inbound pass, that is a possession. But in advanced stat head world, that's much to simple. Have to quantify certain things that impact, at least in the stat head community, possessions. Have to factor in Offensive Rebounds and turnovers and freethrows and a variable between 0 and 1 (sometimes .4, sometimes .44 depending on who you talk to) to get a "true" stat head definition of "possession." This manipulated version of possession is then used in another stat head developed formula to determine points for each possession.

Don't get me wrong, I think stats have their place is showing what a team does well and what they don't. And as a tool for betting, guess they are better than a coin flip. But stats, be they advanced or your run of the mill "old" basic ones are no replacement for the two penultimate team "stats" - Score on Scoreboard (SoS) and Final Record on Season (FRoS).

I never thought the number of possessions were the same between teams
I always compute possessions in excel using the formula to which you alluded.
FGA - OFFREB + TURNOVERS + (0.475 * FTA)
others use 0.44 instead of ken pom's 0.475, which he uses because college game tends to shoot more fouls.
Ppp is computed separately for each team. I have never seen a computed difference >2 for each team in a game.

ppp is a very reliable statistic for determing winner from a game that has been completed.

Points per game is not a valid stat to indicate offensive efficiency.

[boatcapt]

I never thought the number of possessions were the same between teams
I always compute possessions in excel using the formula to which you alluded.
FGA - OFFREB + TURNOVERS + (0.475 * FTA)
others use 0.44 instead of ken pom's 0.475, which he uses because college game tends to shoot more fouls.
Ppp is computed separately for each team. I have never seen a computed difference >2 for each team in a game.

ppp is a very reliable statistic for determing winner from a game that has been completed.

Points per game is not a valid stat to indicate offensive efficiency.

A more reliable indicator of the winner of a game after it has been completed is the score on the scoreboard!

Never said that points per game was an indicator of offensive efficiency. But in an individual game, it is still the penultimate stat.

At the end of the day, all these advanced stats are an attempt to quantify and qualify various basic stats into one ultimate number that can predict with unfailing accuracy which team will win and which will lose. They are statistical formulas primarily developed by statisticians (or ameture statisticians) who just love numerical complexity and nuance. Saying things like 8 times out of 10, the team with the better W/L record wins head to head games or it's hard for a team to beat an opponent three times in a season drives them absolutely crazy!

Two basic stat's I look at when trying to predict the winner of a game...The W/L of each team and their margin of victory. If a team has a better W/L record than their opponent and a better margin of victory number, pretty good chance they are going to win. Do "upsets" happen? Sure, but "8 times out of 10" the team with the better W/L record and margin of victory wins!!!

[Columbuseer]

Hilarious.
If you really want to drive a statistician crazy, state that a player "gave 110%". That statement is like fingers on a chalkboard to them.

What is driving much of analytics is gambling. Gamblers need not be inerringly accurate, but need "reliable enough" stats to give them an edge in predicting the outcome of the game or point spread in advance. Bookies need analytics to set odds and to stay ahead of the gamblers in order to ensure that the odds result in the money split about 50-50 on both sides of the wager. If team x is a 10 point favorite, that point spread means that 50% of the gamblers' $ bet the under and 50% of the gamblers' $ bet the over. It does not in itself mean that a team is 10 points better. So if a gambler has a better predictive stat than other gamblers, the gambler could make huge amounts of $.

Points per possession is a foundational stat of data analytics for predictive purposes.


Once some open-minded coaches saw the predictive success, they started changing their style of play to maximize chances of winning.

[boatcapt]

Hilarious.
If you really want to drive a statistician crazy, state that a player "gave 110%". That statement is like fingers on a chalkboard to them.

What is driving much of analytics is gambling. Gamblers need not be inerringly accurate, but need "reliable enough" stats to give them an edge in predicting the outcome of the game or point spread in advance. Bookies need analytics to set odds and to stay ahead of the gamblers in order to ensure that the odds result in the money split about 50-50 on both sides of the wager. If team x is a 10 point favorite, that point spread means that 50% of the gamblers' $ bet the under and 50% of the gamblers' $ bet the over. It does not in itself mean that a team is 10 points better. So if a gambler has a better predictive stat than other gamblers, the gambler could make huge amounts of $.

Points per possession is a foundational stat of data analytics for predictive purposes.


Once some open-minded coaches saw the predictive success, they started changing their style of play to maximize chances of winning.

Yes...110% will drive a statistician crazy!

Also yes to the reason for advanced stats. Gamblers are always trying to "get an edge" on the house and there is no limit to "systems" that they claim to have developed. Worth noting, the house LOVES the people who claim to have a new system that beats the house! The house laughs all the way to the bank! I'm not an expert sports gambling, but I have been known to place a wager or two (or more). I've done better than average but I've never been close to breaking the bank! Two rules that I've lived by...Only bet teams you know and keep the reasons you bet one side over the other simple...Oh, one more, keep emotion and personal passion out of your bets...if you can't do that, probably best you refrain from betting on "your" teams.

I've always found it interesting when people use Vegas spreads as if they indicate how much the "pros" favor one team over another. It actually has about ZERO to do with that. It is a number designed to achieve a 50/50 split on betting. The house doesn't make money by "beating" the people who place bets with them...They make money by the vig people pay for betting with them! An expert working for the house may believe that Team A is 3 points better than Team B...But Team B is VERY popular with the betting public so the line ain't going to be 3 points...more like pick'em to intise betters to put money on Team A and balance out the stupid money that is going to bet Team B no matter what the line says!

[IUPbigINDIANS]

Yes...110% will drive a statistician crazy!

Also yes to the reason for advanced stats. Gamblers are always trying to "get an edge" on the house and there is no limit to "systems" that they claim to have developed. Worth noting, the house LOVES the people who claim to have a new system that beats the house! The house laughs all the way to the bank! I'm not an expert sports gambling, but I have been known to place a wager or two (or more). I've done better than average but I've never been close to breaking the bank! Two rules that I've lived by...Only bet teams you know and keep the reasons you bet one side over the other simple...Oh, one more, keep emotion and personal passion out of your bets...if you can't do that, probably best you refrain from betting on "your" teams.

I've always found it interesting when people use Vegas spreads as if they indicate how much the "pros" favor one team over another. It actually has about ZERO to do with that. It is a number designed to achieve a 50/50 split on betting. The house doesn't make money by "beating" the people who place bets with them...They make money by the vig people pay for betting with them! An expert working for the house may believe that Team A is 3 points better than Team B...But Team B is VERY popular with the betting public so the line ain't going to be 3 points...more like pick'em to intise betters to put money on Team A and balance out the stupid money that is going to bet Team B no matter what the line says!

I've run the Pick 'Em on the PSAC side for the past 5 years.

Picking straight winners in PSAC football is incredibly easy for about 90% of the season. There's an occasional upset and the occasional big game between, say, IUP/SRU. But, the boring part of having straight picks was about 95% of the players would pick the same side every game. Clarion at IUP, straight, isn't going to get many people taking the Golden Eagles.

Four years ago I started putting point spreads on the lopsided games. Clarion (+28.5) at IUP all the sudden becomes a much more interesting proposition.

Once the spreads hit, most people went from picking 9 of 10 games correctly to about 3-5 games correctly. I don't work at Mandalay Bay, but I know enough D2 football to make the spreads fairly accurate -- and, hard to pick.

I'll put some crazy numbers out for the really big mismatches ... Lock Haven at Shepherd ... may set that at Shep -49. And, of course, Shep wins by 55 but the comments during the week are that 49 points are way too high, etc. There are some really knowledgeable football fans that just get crushed by the spreads. I think they fall in to that 'emotional picking' category you mentioned. I've noticed, too, over the years that big spreads tend to freak people out. People are are afraid to lay those big numbers -- despite the fact most years Shepherd is 7+ TDs better than LH.

I typically then add 1-2 D1 games but will put the actual Vegas spread on those games. They typically get split about 50/50 by our players.

[boatcapt]

I've run the Pick 'Em on the PSAC side for the past 5 years.

Picking straight winners in PSAC football is incredibly easy for about 90% of the season. There's an occasional upset and the occasional big game between, say, IUP/SRU. But, the boring part of having straight picks was about 95% of the players would pick the same side every game. Clarion at IUP, straight, isn't going to get many people taking the Golden Eagles.

Four years ago I started putting point spreads on the lopsided games. Clarion (+28.5) at IUP all the sudden becomes a much more interesting proposition.

Once the spreads hit, most people went from picking 9 of 10 games correctly to about 3-5 games correctly. I don't work at Mandalay Bay, but I know enough D2 football to make the spreads fairly accurate -- and, hard to pick.

I'll put some crazy numbers out for the really big mismatches ... Lock Haven at Shepherd ... may set that at Shep -49. And, of course, Shep wins by 55 but the comments during the week are that 49 points are way too high, etc. There are some really knowledgeable football fans that just get crushed by the spreads. I think they fall in to that 'emotional picking' category you mentioned. I've noticed, too, over the years that big spreads tend to freak people out. People are are afraid to lay those big numbers -- despite the fact most years Shepherd is 7+ TDs better than LH.

I typically then add 1-2 D1 games but will put the actual Vegas spread on those games. They typically get split about 50/50 by our players.

Yep...That's what the line is supposed to do. Get to 50/50 on the handle. The line has almost nothing to do with an assessment of which team is better. The house has done a masterful job of convincing bettors that their lines have something to do with which team is better (and therefore, likely to win).

As you point out, picking winner/loser is shockingly easy with most games. Don't need advanced stats to do it...just look at the teams W/L record and pick the team with the better % and 9 times out of 10 you'll land on the winner. In the 10% (?) of the games were the two teams have the same record, flip a coin...or take the home team. May not be a cool way of picking winners, but is your goal to pick a winner or work a formula?

It would be interesting to do a season long comparison between PPP as a predictive tool and using comparative W/L only to make your picks.

[Columbuseer]

Here is something to pass the time....

True Shooting Percentage is a measure of offensive efficiency for a player (and team) that combines scoring via 2pt, 3pt and free throws.
Higher % 3 pt shooters often have higher True Shooting %; however; a person who scores inside and/or gets to the FT line a lot could also be very high.
What is interesting about WLU is how many players have a very good true shooting %.

Here is the rank order of True Shooting % for WLU for 21-22 season, as well as the team total, from highest to lowest.
One of the values is the team percentage.




Can you guess the top 7 players according to shooting %?
Can you guess the Team's True Shooting %?

Here are the %.

Rank	True Shooting %
1	67.7%
2	64.2%
3	62.2%
4	61.9%
5	60.6%
6	59.2%
7	58.9%
8	57.2%
9	56.4%
10	54.3%
11	54.1%
12	45.7%

Here are the players in alphabetical order:

Denbow,Garrett
Kovacevic,Viktor
Mckinney,Malik
Montague,Christian
Moore Jr. ,Marlon
Powell,Luke
Robinson III,Pat
Sarson,Ben
Watson,Elijah
Webb,Austin
Yoakum, Will
Overall Team Total

[Columbuseer]

Countdown on top 7 WLU Players based on True Shooting Percentage in 21-22 season

7. Patrick Robinson III 59.2%

Here is rank order of true shooting % using Ken Pom's 0.475 factor for FT attempts

True Shot %
67.7%
66.7%
64.7%
64.2%
62.2%
61.9%
60.9%
59.2%
58.9%
57.2%
56.4%
54.3%
54.1%

[Columbuseer]

Countdown # 6 - top 7 WLU Players based on True Shooting Percentage in 21-22 season

6. Ben Sarson 61.9%
7. Patrick Robinson III 59.2%

Here is rank order of true shooting % using Ken Pom's 0.475 factor for FT attempts

True Shot %
67.7%
66.7%
64.7%
64.2%
62.2%
61.9%
60.9%
59.2%
58.9%
57.2%
56.4%
54.3%
54.1%

[Columbuseer]

Countdown # 5 - top 7 WLU Players based on True Shooting Percentage in 21-22 season

5. Malik McKinney 62.2%
6. Ben Sarson 61.9%
7. Patrick Robinson III 59.2%

[Columbuseer]

Countdown # 4- top 7 WLU Players based on True Shooting Percentage in 21-22 season

4. Garrett Denbow 64.2%
5. Malik McKinney 62.2%
6. Ben Sarson 61.9%
7. Patrick Robinson III 59.2%

[Columbuseer]

Countdown # 3- top 7 WLU Players based on True Shooting Percentage in 21-22 season

3. Bryce Butler 64.7%
4. Garrett Denbow 64.2%
5. Malik McKinney 62.2%
6. Ben Sarson 61.9%
7. Patrick Robinson III 59.2%

[Columbuseer]

Countdown # 2 - top 7 WLU Players based on True Shooting Percentage in 21-22 season

2. Zach Rasile 66.7%
3. Bryce Butler 64.7%
4. Garrett Denbow 64.2%
5. Malik McKinney 62.2%
6. Ben Sarson 61.9%
7. Patrick Robinson III 59.2%

[Columbuseer]

As most know Will was injured for much of the season.
it is a testament to the coaches and team that they still had a great regular season at 29-3 .
The overall team average true shooting % for the entire roster was 60.9%.
Impressive!

Countdown # 1 - top 7 WLU Players based on True Shooting Percentage in 21-22 season

1. Will Yoakum 67.7%
2. Zach Rasile 66.7%
3. Bryce Butler 64.7%
4. Garrett Denbow 64.2%
5. Malik McKinney 62.2%
6. Ben Sarson 61.9%
7. Patrick Robinson III 59.2%

[Columbuseer]

New women's basketball coach at wvu is Dawn Plitzuweit.
She coaches her team to be aware of a stat that was new to me - TKOs.
As I understand it from the interview, a TKO is when you stop your opponent from scoring on three consecutive possessions.

It reminded me of the blackouts of WLU, where WLU forces turnovers, gets easy baskets and the opponent's shooting % drops significantly.

Using Excel and the play by play data I looked at Davis and Elkins at WLU game on Dec 4,2021.

There were 5 TKOs by WLU.

If a consecutive possession without a score is called a punch,
In this game, WLU had:

3 three-punch TKOs
1 four-punch TKO
1 Twelve punch TKO

WLU won 100-69.