West Liberty Hilltopper Basketball

[Columbuseer]

Bingo! You have to have multiple styles and answers in the NCAA tournament...The idea that if our shots aren't falling that we just need to turn the defense up doesn't fly when the opposing team has a guy who can create his own shots. Good offense beats good defense in basketball. I've actually participated in quite a few WL open gyms (I was going to transfer to WL in 1999), and realize the importance of being able to change your style. Case in point, a few years ago WL continued to try and press North West Missouri State at the elite eight and was continuously getting scorched by NWMS guard Trevor Hudgins. They refused to take the full court press off until midway through the 2nd half when they thought "hey let's do a half court press and trap", which freaking gave NWMS fits, but by then it was too late. Morale of the story....You need to have different styles and ways to defend or score points.

What style would you have recommended to defeat nw mo state, who had 2 g league players (one was national player of the year) and one of the best coaches at any level? Over the years, many other styles with great players tried and failed to stop nw mo state. Ask Northern State.

In fact, nw mo state beat opponents in semi finals and finals worse than they beat wlu. They also had a week to prepare for wlu. Imho if we were in a different bracket, we would have faced nw mo state in the finals.

The wlu style averages higher points per possession than other teams not playing the wlu style. The advantage of this style is the paucity of rigid set patterns or plays, which makes it hard for opponents to game plan for wlu.

I think some talented opponents leveraged a size advantage over wlu and exposed some of our 2nd shift defensively. Hopefully, the transfers we have gotten recently will ameliorate that issue this upcoming season. But it will take time for them to adjust.

[boatcapt]

Bingo! You have to have multiple styles and answers in the NCAA tournament...The idea that if our shots aren't falling that we just need to turn the defense up doesn't fly when the opposing team has a guy who can create his own shots. Good offense beats good defense in basketball. I've actually participated in quite a few WL open gyms (I was going to transfer to WL in 1999), and realize the importance of being able to change your style. Case in point, a few years ago WL continued to try and press North West Missouri State at the elite eight and was continuously getting scorched by NWMS guard Trevor Hudgins. They refused to take the full court press off until midway through the 2nd half when they thought "hey let's do a half court press and trap", which freaking gave NWMS fits, but by then it was too late. Morale of the story....You need to have different styles and ways to defend or score points.

The answer to most problems on the basketball floor is rarely "more cowbell" (doing more of the thing you are struggling with). The answer is having a secondary "style" that you can trot out that addresses a likely need (an area were you have struggled in the past). My idea at the time was to bring in an additional athletic big to counter a problem we have had a number of times particularly in the playoffs of teams with multiple athletic bigs.

Since returning from COVID, WLU is struggling (at least for WLU) with it's 3 pt shooting. While the percentage change hasn't been precipitous, it has been there and the dip is meaningful. But even more concerning, we seem to be struggling with 3 pt shooting consistency. Seems like we are either scorching the nets or having trouble even hitting the rim from 3. Streaky 3 pt shooting is hard to build a base on. For the record, last season we had 12 games where we shot above .400 from 3 vice 7 games where we shot below .300. The last season before COVID (2019-20) WLU had 20 games above .400 vs 2 games below .300.

[TopperNation]

The answer to most problems on the basketball floor is rarely "more cowbell" (doing more of the thing you are struggling with). The answer is having a secondary "style" that you can trot out that addresses a likely need (an area were you have struggled in the past). My idea at the time was to bring in an additional athletic big to counter a problem we have had a number of times particularly in the playoffs of teams with multiple athletic bigs.

Since returning from COVID, WLU is struggling (at least for WLU) with it's 3 pt shooting. While the percentage change hasn't been precipitous, it has been there and the dip is meaningful. But even more concerning, we seem to be struggling with 3 pt shooting consistency. Seems like we are either scorching the nets or having trouble even hitting the rim from 3. Streaky 3 pt shooting is hard to build a base on. For the record, last season we had 12 games where we shot above .400 from 3 vice 7 games where we shot below .300. The last season before COVID (2019-20) WLU had 20 games above .400 vs 2 games below .300.

Yeah, I believe the inconsistent 3 point shooting is an issue as well, because during that Cal State Dom run WL did have quite a few open shots that didn't go down. I would say that those shots would normally fall, but it's been a few years now since we've had a knock down 3 point shooter. I'm just hoping that in this new core group of players that we have at least 2 players who can shoot in the high 30 percent range. Again, I don't want to complain about 28 -30 win seasons, it's just that these trips to the Elite Eight in Evansville are killing me, lol.

[Columbuseer]

Yeah, I believe the inconsistent 3 point shooting is an issue as well, because during that Cal State Dom run WL did have quite a few open shots that didn't go down. I would say that those shots would normally fall, but it's been a few years now since we've had a knock down 3 point shooter. I'm just hoping that in this new core group of players that we have at least 2 players who can shoot in the high 30 percent range. Again, I don't want to complain about 28 -30 win seasons, it's just that these trips to the Elite Eight in Evansville are killing me, lol.

We have elite 3 point shooters, such as dragas at 46% and Tinsley at 45%. If they had more attempts, they would have ranked 3rd and 12th, respectively in d2.

Numerous studies have shown shooting to be normally distributed.
if a shooter averages 40% over the season, 68% of the individual game shooting % samples will fall between 25% and 55%, or 1 standard deviation in each direction. That is the nature of the normal distribution (bell curve).
One study determined that only 78% of 3 pt shooting is skill, while 22% is due to other factors.

[Scrub]

Look, the math works out. And, yes, I trust Dragas & Tinsley to take & make the three ball just as much as any players in recent past (such as Rasile).

But we're fooling ourselves if we don't think that the shooters at WLU are different than they were before NIL and before Crutch-in-Florida. Up above, Boat was referring to COVID as a kind of dividing line, but I firmly believe the dividing line is Crutch moving to Florida. He wants to recruit the same guys Howlett does, and he has obvious advantages.

I mean, I'm pretty sure Seger Bonifant would be a Shark not a Hilltopper if he were being recruited today. It's that simple.

So, yes, Dragas & Tinsley can shoot it. So could Rasile and Malik McKinney and other Toppers of recent vintage.

But it just feels like (and, yes, I'm going on memory here because I'm too lazy to look up the stats--I trust Columbus will do it for me) the Crutch-era shooters were more potent and prolific than any we've had post-Crutch. Dragas & Tinsley are nice shooters, but give me Bonifant, Barry Shetzer, Jordan Fortney, Cedric Harris, Tim Hausfeld, Brady Arnold, Devin Hoehn, even Chris Morrow or Eric Meininger. Maybe it's an anti-recency bias or something, but it feels more like when the shot goes up we hope as opposed to assuming it goes in. In the Crutch era it always felt safe to assume it was going in (no need for hope).

[boatcapt]

Look, the math works out. And, yes, I trust Dragas & Tinsley to take & make the three ball just as much as any players in recent past (such as Rasile).

But we're fooling ourselves if we don't think that the shooters at WLU are different than they were before NIL and before Crutch-in-Florida. Up above, Boat was referring to COVID as a kind of dividing line, but I firmly believe the dividing line is Crutch moving to Florida. He wants to recruit the same guys Howlett does, and he has obvious advantages.

I mean, I'm pretty sure Seger Bonifant would be a Shark not a Hilltopper if he were being recruited today. It's that simple.

So, yes, Dragas & Tinsley can shoot it. So could Rasile and Malik McKinney and other Toppers of recent vintage.

But it just feels like (and, yes, I'm going on memory here because I'm too lazy to look up the stats--I trust Columbus will do it for me) the Crutch-era shooters were more potent and prolific than any we've had post-Crutch. Dragas & Tinsley are nice shooters, but give me Bonifant, Barry Shetzer, Jordan Fortney, Cedric Harris, Tim Hausfeld, Brady Arnold, Devin Hoehn, even Chris Morrow or Eric Meininger. Maybe it's an anti-recency bias or something, but it feels more like when the shot goes up we hope as opposed to assuming it goes in. In the Crutch era it always felt safe to assume it was going in (no need for hope).

I believe WLUs recruiting has changed over time. Back in the day we recruited the gym rat/coaches son/110% all the time type player who wasn't really recruited elsewhere because he was lacking something (typically that was the ability to fly down the lane and finish above the rim...i.e. athletics) ..as Crutch famously said, we never won pregame warm ups. We made up for that by often recruiting true PGs that could drive and were more interested in distributing the ball to the open player for an open 3. Not that the other players couldn't bring the ball up and trigger the offense, but that wasn't their job...that was Cedric or Brady or one of the other PGs job. Now we have become enamored with position less players to do it all. When ever ai hear that, I think of the saying jack of all trades ..master of none. Will they nock down a 3? Sure. Can they get you a rebound? Sure, in the right situation. How about fly down the lane and finish with authority? Yup, provided the other team doesn't have tall trees! But by doing everything, you sacrifice a bit on the edges and over the course of a team and year, it adds up

Give me two 5'10" spot up 3 ptr shooters who press and play D at 110% every second any day and then give Ben a couple of years to address the holes in their game over a do it all player almost any day..

[Scrub]

I believe WLUs recruiting has changed over time. Back in the day we recruited the gym rat/coaches son/110% all the time type player who wasn't really recruited elsewhere because he was lacking something (typically that was the ability to fly down the lane and finish above the rim...i.e. athletics) ..as Crutch famously said, we never won pregame warm ups. We made up for that by often recruiting true PGs that could drive and were more interested in distributing the ball to the open player for an open 3. Not that the other players couldn't bring the ball up and trigger the offense, but that wasn't their job...that was Cedric or Brady or one of the other PGs job. Now we have become enamored with position less players to do it all. When ever ai hear that, I think of the saying jack of all trades ..master of none. Will they nock down a 3? Sure. Can they get you a rebound? Sure, in the right situation. How about fly down the lane and finish with authority? Yup, provided the other team doesn't have tall trees! But by doing everything, you sacrifice a bit on the edges and over the course of a team and year, it adds up

Give me two 5'10" spot up 3 ptr shooters who press and play D at 110% every second any day and then give Ben a couple of years to address the holes in their game over a do it all player almost any day..

You and I are saying the same thing, Boat. But to play devil's advocate, in the portal era, there is no time to develop a guy and address holes in his game. The days of a Keene Cockburn or Eric Meininger hanging around for 3 years waiting to get on the floor are long gone. They can immediately go to Salem and put up 20 a game (and lose 20 games in the process, but who cares, says them). A Dalton Bolon or Luke Dyer who comes in as a "preferred walk-on" type and leaves a star is a dying breed in the new landscape of college basketball. And it's a shame, because WLU used to thrive of finding and developing that guy.

So, yes, the context is different which makes it harder to get back to the good ol' days. But, man, I'd love to see another 45% career three point ace back in the Black & Gold.

[Scrub]

I did finally stop being lazy and look it up. Here are the top 5 Hilltoppers ever in career 3% (spoiler: 4 of the 5 are Crutch guys--one of whom even won a National Title with Crutch in Ft. Lauderdale):

1. Seger Bonifant (52.5%)
2. Will Yoakum (45.8%)
3. Jordan Fortney (43.6%)
4. Zach Rasile (43.2%)
5. Chris Morrow (43.0%)

(Morrow even higher on this list than I would have imagined. I remember him being a very good shooter, but he obviously took far fewer than the other guys as the "so-called big" in Crutch's system).

And while we're at it, here's the top 5 in made 3's:

1. Seger Bonifant (374)
2. Dalton Bolon (351)
3. Devin Hoehn (325)
4. Barry Shetzer (284)
5. Eric Bovaird (260)

[Columbuseer]

Look, the math works out. And, yes, I trust Dragas & Tinsley to take & make the three ball just as much as any players in recent past (such as Rasile).

But we're fooling ourselves if we don't think that the shooters at WLU are different than they were before NIL and before Crutch-in-Florida. Up above, Boat was referring to COVID as a kind of dividing line, but I firmly believe the dividing line is Crutch moving to Florida. He wants to recruit the same guys Howlett does, and he has obvious advantages.

I mean, I'm pretty sure Seger Bonifant would be a Shark not a Hilltopper if he were being recruited today. It's that simple.

So, yes, Dragas & Tinsley can shoot it. So could Rasile and Malik McKinney and other Toppers of recent vintage.

But it just feels like (and, yes, I'm going on memory here because I'm too lazy to look up the stats--I trust Columbus will do it for me) the Crutch-era shooters were more potent and prolific than any we've had post-Crutch. Dragas & Tinsley are nice shooters, but give me Bonifant, Barry Shetzer, Jordan Fortney, Cedric Harris, Tim Hausfeld, Brady Arnold, Devin Hoehn, even Chris Morrow or Eric Meininger. Maybe it's an anti-recency bias or something, but it feels more like when the shot goes up we hope as opposed to assuming it goes in. In the Crutch era it always felt safe to assume it was going in (no need for hope).

Interesting discussion. Some observations:
1. Shooters- last I checked bonifant had highest career 3 point % in history of anyone at d1, d2 and d3 at 52.5%. But he had to develop a back to basket game in his Jr. Year to keep defenders honest. Hudgens of nw mo state came close but tailed off his Sr. Year.
2. There are a number of conflating factors around this discussion:
- COVID and NIL overlapped
- MEC opponents upgraded their level of recruiting to try to offset wlu style. Imho wlu had to reduce disparity in athletic ability. Imho the MEC is much stronger since 2016 than before.
- 3 point line moved
- proliferation of wlu style (nova se) increased competition for wlu type players. Examples are nick smith, eberhart, sunahara xfer from fairmont, bennett kayser from milford... we now have at least 7 teams going after same type of player - wlu, Nova, coker, gannon, sc Beaufort, Fayetteville state, and bluefield state.
- xfer portal. There will be no more Keene Cockburns, who after getting limited minutes for 3 years, became a shot blocking and rebounding force his senior year. Witness Kisner.

Fyi some stats.
Yr. Team 3pt % number of players >= 40% with over 50 attempts
2011 41.5% 5
2012 41.2% 5
2013 39.7% 1. But it was bonifant at 56.9%!
2014 41.3% 4. Bonifant at 52.2%
2015. 40.5% 4. Lamberti increased 20 basis points to 52%
2016. 40.5% 1 monteroso at 42.3%
2017 37.8% 3
2018 42.5% 7
2019. 41.4% 5
2020 39.2% 4
2021 37.7% 4
2022 38.4% 5
2023 35.7% 2
2024 36.6% 2

The change in individual 3 pt shooting % from year to year show the nature of the normal distribution. Just one of several examples:
falk 2011 44.3% 2012 34.6%

There are many more examples if one looks at great shooting individuals year to year.

Imho, wlu has greatly upgraded their defense from 10-15 years ago. Back then we lived or died by the three because we had trouble staying in front of our man. Now we can shoot under 30% from three and still win. Cold shooting occurs to every team due to the normal distribution. We are still recruiting great shooters that can also dribble, pass, rebound and defend. We have more great shooters coming in this year. Davis and Montgomery are deadly.

[Scrub]

Interesting discussion. Some observations:
1. Shooters- last I checked bonifant had highest career 3 point % in history of anyone at d1, d2 and d3 at 52.5%. But he had to develop a back to basket game in his Jr. Year to keep defenders honest. Hudgens of nw mo state came close but tailed off his Sr. Year.
2. There are a number of conflating factors around this discussion:
- COVID and NIL overlapped
- MEC opponents upgraded their level of recruiting to try to offset wlu style. Imho wlu had to reduce disparity in athletic ability. Imho the MEC is much stronger since 2016 than before.
- 3 point line moved
- proliferation of wlu style (nova se) increased competition for wlu type players. Examples are nick smith, eberhart, sunahara xfer from fairmont, bennett kayser from milford... we now have at least 7 teams going after same type of player - wlu, Nova, coker, gannon, sc Beaufort, Fayetteville state, and bluefield state.
- xfer portal. There will be no more Keene Cockburns, who after getting limited minutes for 3 years, became a shot blocking and rebounding force his senior year. Witness Kisner.

Fyi some stats.
Yr. Team 3pt % number of players >= 40% with over 50 attempts
2011 41.5% 5
2012 41.2% 5
2013 39.7% 1. But it was bonifant at 56.9%!
2014 41.3% 4. Bonifant at 52.2%
2015. 40.5% 4. Lamberti increased 20 basis points to 52%
2016. 40.5% 1 monteroso at 42.3%
2017 37.8% 3
2018 42.5% 7
2019. 41.4% 5
2020 39.2% 4
2021 37.7% 4
2022 38.4% 5
2023 35.7% 2
2024 36.6% 2

The change in individual 3 pt shooting % from year to year show the nature of the normal distribution. Just one of several examples:
falk 2011 44.3% 2012 34.6%

There are many more examples if one looks at great shooting individuals year to year.

Imho, wlu has greatly upgraded their defense from 10-15 years ago. Back then we lived or died by the three because we had trouble staying in front of our man. Now we can shoot under 30% from three and still win. Cold shooting occurs to every team due to the normal distribution. We are still recruiting great shooters that can also dribble, pass, rebound and defend. We have more great shooters coming in this year. Davis and Montgomery are deadly.

I totally agree that the context changes are the likely culprit in the seeming decline of WLU shooting (i.e., the NIL/Portal context, the context of the league getting stronger, the context of the line moving back, etc.).

But that still won't stop us oldsters from lamenting that it can't be like it used to be!

The difference in the numbers you cite seems to be the sheer volume of >40% guys.

[boatcapt]

So the consensus seems to be:

1. Statistical deviations are just WLU reverting to the norm and have no effect on outcome,
2. WLU can't compete for truly high quality recruits,
3. The portal makes it impossible for WLU to retain players,
4. We should just accept that things have changed and there is nothing we can or should do about it.

[Columbuseer]

I totally agree that the context changes are the likely culprit in the seeming decline of WLU shooting (i.e., the NIL/Portal context, the context of the league getting stronger, the context of the line moving back, etc.).

But that still won't stop us oldsters from lamenting that it can't be like it used to be!

The difference in the numbers you cite seems to be the sheer volume of >40% guys.

I also hope we will find more great athletes that are complete players and who can also either drive or drill the three, such as monteroso, bonifant, yoakum or harper. But they don't grow on trees and fans will need to increase donations to wlu foundation men's hoops club to find and sign them.

I am cautiously optimistic about the potential of 25-26 team.
Dragas and Tinsley were not playing like freshmen in Feb.

[Columbuseer]

Fyi
will yoakum has moved up to top league in Mexico, averaging 12.7 pts.

highlights
https://youtu.be/RcGPVG7b7ww?si=DXVUk21hVPlXwsSj

[Scrub]

So the consensus seems to be:

1. Statistical deviations are just WLU reverting to the norm and have no effect on outcome,
2. WLU can't compete for truly high quality recruits,
3. The portal makes it impossible for WLU to retain players,
4. We should just accept that things have changed and there is nothing we can or should do about it.

I'm beginning to come around to the fact that #4 is probably correct. It doesn't mean WLU can't win. But it does mean WLU can't win with the same formula it did in, say, 2013. And that's admittedly hard for long-time fans like you and me to come to grips with.

[IUPbigINDIANS]

I also hope we will find more great athletes that are complete players and who can also either drive or drill the three, such as monteroso, bonifant, yoakum or harper. But they don't grow on trees and fans will need to increase donations to wlu foundation men's hoops club to find and sign them.

I am cautiously optimistic about the potential of 25-26 team.
Dragas and Tinsley were not playing like freshmen in Feb.

Keep in mind if you do find them, you'll have them for (1) season.

D2 is now simply a farm system.