Performance Indicators 2016-17

[ctrabs74]

Re: Performance Indicators 2016-17

For Wl vs IUP, check out the "ranked wins" and I think that makes the tiebreaker pretty obvious. 5-1 for WL but only 1-2 for IUP

Good point. It speaks volumes to how stacked the MEC is compared to the PSAC.

[IUPbigINDIANS]

Re: Performance Indicators 2016-17

Who are the five (FSU, WJ, LeMoyne and .... ?)

Is that counting, for instance, an 'at the time in Week 1' ranked West Chester who is now 11-11? Was now 9-loss ND ranked at some time?

Unlike WL, WJ and Ship, IUP doesn't have a bottom-feeder loss.

Regardless, the odds of it coming down to a tie-breaker between the two are pretty slim. The odds of both winning out through the conference tournaments aren't too high.

And, how is Kutztown not in the tie-breaker conversations? They are every bit as hot as Indiana right now.

Luckily in basketball this stuff almost always takes care of itself and doesn't get settled by subjective metrics. If you do believe in these and the polls, it's a shame only one team can come out of the Atlantic. But, by Selection Day, all this stuff will likely explain itself and have been settled on the courts.

Both leagues are very top-heavy. The PSAC has more legit contenders to at least have a shot at winning the regional than usual. There are a lot of awful to mediocre teams in the 300-member PSAC this season but the league does have 4 very good teams -- IUP, Ship, Kutztown, ESU.

I still think Fairmont is the best team.

[JDonAB92]

Re: Performance Indicators 2016-17

"Ranked" means record against teams that are ranked in the top ten in the regional polls just released, and it counts as soon as a team is ranked regionally and remains as a ranked win regardless of further rankings. It has nothing to do with wins over ranked teams in Top 25 polls.

West Liberty's ranked wins are: Fairmont State (1-1); Wheeling Jesuit (1-0); LeMoyne (1-0) and Shepherd (2-0).

People forget also about Fairmont's impressive win over Findlay way back in November. Findlay now has a winning percentage over 75% against D2 comp and they will likely continue to build on that. West Lib's win over LeMoyne falls in the same category.

[IUPbigINDIANS]

Re: Performance Indicators 2016-17

I see. Light bulb went off. Thanks. This is the first year I've followed along with his metric other than just casually. It's been neat to watch it evolve and I appreciate the effort he puts in to it.

I guess where I see it as subjective is a case could easily have been made for Gannon and Shepherd to flip flop. They had to score incredibly close. Had that happened, following the conversation, that gives WL two less and IUP two more. I get it's black and white per the ranking but I guess that's why I don't put a ton of stock in these metrics, either.

I did notice IUP was ahead of WL in the official regional rankings yesterday. Any idea what bumped them in that over the above metric? Is that where the 'bad loss' figures in to the mix?

Ship losing last night will shuffle things up a bit. Also, above, a tie-breaker was mentioned. What is the official tie-breaker the NCAA would use?

One scenario we've discussed in other threads that could happen would be WL, Fairmont and either IUP or Kutztown could all finish with two losses.

Beauty of basketball ... it doesn't get settled on message boards or spread sheets. End of the day, this will all play itself out.

These top teams are all having fantastic seasons. It's going to be great to watch it unfold.

Joys of a newborn ... thinking about this crap at 3 a.m.

[JDonAB92]

Re: Performance Indicators 2016-17

Fairmont's PI is pretty impressive compared to the teams ranked below them. I actually think it is going to take two Fairmont losses to bump them out of seeding. If West Lib wins out (and they still go to WJ) and they run the table in Charleston, they should host. But Fairmont right now has a ton of good wins. You can never count out West Lib's ability to win at this stage of the year. Crutchfield pushes the right buttons late in the season....that is just fact. People can hate that, but the guy is a proven winner at this time of the year. If the MEC champ is someone other than Fairmont or West Lib and IUP runs the table, then they will host. But just looking at Fairmont's PI and number of quality wins, it is going to be hard to get them out of there. They still get Shepherd at home which would be another regionally ranked team....once ranked, always ranked. I just think it is going to take some real upsets of either Fairmont or West Lib for this regional not to be in WV. IUP's problem is their last 3 regular season games are against teams with a record below .500. There is not much bump there.

[boatcapt]

Re: Performance Indicators 2016-17

I see. Light bulb went off. Thanks. This is the first year I've followed along with his metric other than just casually. It's been neat to watch it evolve and I appreciate the effort he puts in to it.

I guess where I see it as subjective is a case could easily have been made for Gannon and Shepherd to flip flop. They had to score incredibly close. Had that happened, following the conversation, that gives WL two less and IUP two more. I get it's black and white per the ranking but I guess that's why I don't put a ton of stock in these metrics, either.

I did notice IUP was ahead of WL in the official regional rankings yesterday. Any idea what bumped them in that over the above metric? Is that where the 'bad loss' figures in to the mix?

Ship losing last night will shuffle things up a bit. Also, above, a tie-breaker was mentioned. What is the official tie-breaker the NCAA would use?

One scenario we've discussed in other threads that could happen would be WL, Fairmont and either IUP or Kutztown could all finish with two losses.

Beauty of basketball ... it doesn't get settled on message boards or spread sheets. End of the day, this will all play itself out.

These top teams are all having fantastic seasons. It's going to be great to watch it unfold.

Joys of a newborn ... thinking about this crap at 3 a.m.

If you are going to throw Gannon into the mix over Shepherd, then you've got to throw Notre Dame into the mix over both Gannon and ESU.

[boatcapt]

Re: Performance Indicators 2016-17

Interesting to note that WLU has defeated two teams ranked #1 in their region...Lemoyne from the East and Fairmont from the Atlantic.

[Guest]

Re: Performance Indicators 2016-17

Please throw Gannon of the list. Not even worthy of discussion.

[IUPbigINDIANS]

Re: Performance Indicators 2016-17

Yep ... that discussion ended in the Hammermill last night.

[Guest]

Re: Performance Indicators 2016-17

I left that game at half thinking what a dumb you made. Still stunned

[bballfan03]

Re: Performance Indicators 2016-17

I wonder where Gannon would be if Byrd, eisendorf and kaigler didn't transfer to lemoyne. Combined 30 points per game for 12-3 team. Add in kuteiy 15 a game from a 9-3 team.

the only issue with that is that you put those 4 back on the team and you have to take 4 off the team.. even though bench doesn't play much, the subs have still made their contributions so that could take away a few of the wins they currently have as well as most of the current players are at-worst league average defenders.. the ones that went to LeMoyne + Kutyei (minus Byrd) were below that defensively.

[bballfan03]

Re: Performance Indicators 2016-17

that's why Gannon charges $5 a ticket... takes at least 40 mins to find out the result :)

[Guest]

Re: Performance Indicators 2016-17

the only issue with that is that you put those 4 back on the team and you have to take 4 off the team.. even though bench doesn't play much, the subs have still made their contributions so that could take away a few of the wins they currently have as well as most of the current players are at-worst league average defenders.. the ones that went to LeMoyne + Kutyei (minus Byrd) were below that defensively.

Giving up over 50 second half points to seton hill and edinboro makes it clear this is the worst defensive team under Reilly. Charge $2.50 if their only going to play half the game. lemoyne would not be were they are without the defense of three ex Gannon players.

[bballfan03]

Re: Performance Indicators 2016-17

Giving up over 50 second half points to seton hill and edinboro makes it clear this is the worst defensive team under Reilly. Charge $2.50 if their only going to play half the game. lemoyne would not be were they are without the defense of three ex Gannon players.

15-16	16-17
Points: 62.8 for/70.1 against (-7.3 margin)	76.7 for/72.3 against (+4.4 margin)
Steals: 148 (5.7/game)	Steals: 136 (5.7/ game)
TOs: 352 forced	TOs: 335 forced
Def Reb: 608	Def Reb: 611
Blocks: 34	Blocks: 54

Last years team allowed an average of 2 points less per game than this year's team, however, also scored an average of 14 points less per game this year's team. Last year's team finished with 148 steals (5.7/game average), this year's team has 136 with 2 games remaining for an average of 5.7 per game. Last years team forced 352 turnovers, this year's team has 335 with 2 games remaining. Last year's team pulled down a total of 608 rebounds, this year's team has already surpassed that by 3. Last year's team had 34 blocks and this year's team has already surpassed that by 20.

Clearly this year's team is the worst defensive team ever though....

[Guest]

Re: Performance Indicators 2016-17

Last years team had no post players that he played so blocks and rebounds are a very misleading stat. Which makes the fact that this years team is giving up more ppg amazing. Plus, the psac west was stronger last year as well as the Gary Miller classic. The real issue is their perimeter defense. When you have to try and use your power forward to defend the other teams best guard tells you exactly what Reilly thinks of his perimeter defenders. I would nickname Gannon defense as a hot knife through butter.