PASSHE Institutions Merging

[complaint_hopeful]

Education peak and population peak. Don't forget the recession at the time which historically (until now) has led to college enrollment increases, especially adults seeking a second or graduate degree.

I have a lot of friends who were making TONS of money in geology due to oil & gas. Almost all are now either in other fields or looking for work. I also have a neighbor who is more of a grunt laborer and he said that he'll be surprised if he's still employed in 2022 due to capping & decreased demand.

Yep. Some of the schools are doing really bad in undergrad enrollment, but their grad school grows yearly which makes the numbers look less bad.

But, lose 1 undergrad and that's 4 years of tuition. Where grad school is what 1.5 to 2 years worth.

[complaint_hopeful]

That's laughably bad. These schools are killing themselves...and they all think they're being managed well.

[Fightingscot82]

Yuck this is bad. After all the bad press from integrations, nobody is going to want to attend a school still requiring masks.

https://www.post-gazette.com/news/ed...s/202106220111

[Fightingscot82]

I tend to think the enrollment now is the 'normal' level for PASSHE and that the 2010 level was due to the education bubble.

I am sure that some kids choose to work on gas lines or other areas too. I just don't think it's a main factor. It's demographic, cost, brand, etc.

Education peak and population peak. Don't forget the recession at the time which historically (until now) has led to college enrollment increases, especially adults seeking a second or graduate degree.

I have a lot of friends who were making TONS of money in geology due to oil & gas. Almost all are now either in other fields or looking for work. I also have a neighbor who is more of a grunt laborer and he said that he'll be surprised if he's still employed in 2022 due to capping & decreased demand.

[complaint_hopeful]

I think the cost absolutely scares away those who are reluctant to choose college or those would would have dabbled at a 4-year instead of a community/junior college. But one of the things that also drove college enrollment in the 80s through 00s is the terrible job market for 18 year olds. Boomers had the luxury of having a solid fallback option like manufacturing work, heavy industry, or farm work. Some members of that same generation spent the next 30 years accelerating the demise of those industries in the name of lean/Six Sigma/black belt.

Yes. And cost for what you get.

If say a Kia is 40k or you can get a Cadillac for $48k...which do you choose?

[complaint_hopeful]

We are talking about PASSHE mergers due to enrolement decline so perhaps not a non sequitur. According to the DOL, in 2008 there were 442,000 persons in apprenticeships which included 132,000 new apprentices entering programs...in 2020, again according to the DOL, there were 633,000 persons enrolled in apprenticeships with 252,000 first year apprentices enrolled...That is a 43% increase in enrolled apprentices and a 91% increase in new enrolled apprentices.

I tend to think the enrollment now is the 'normal' level for PASSHE and that the 2010 level was due to the education bubble.

I am sure that some kids choose to work on gas lines or other areas too. I just don't think it's a main factor. It's demographic, cost, brand, etc.

[Fightingscot82]

Well, the percent of students choosing college is decreasing slightly since about 2010, and if you separate out the demographic groups there are even more significant changes - but those statistics aren't always available, and many in academics don't want to look at those. In particular rural male students. The other part of the change is completion rate and completion rate at the starting university. . This number has been plateauing even with much more assistance and grade inflation. Students becoming financially unable, or deciding to stop trying because of the cost is increasing, sort along with the increase in transferring, Of course covid is having a big impact too. https://www.bls.gov/opub/ted/2020/66...tober-2019.htm

I think the cost absolutely scares away those who are reluctant to choose college or those would would have dabbled at a 4-year instead of a community/junior college. But one of the things that also drove college enrollment in the 80s through 00s is the terrible job market for 18 year olds. Boomers had the luxury of having a solid fallback option like manufacturing work, heavy industry, or farm work. Some members of that same generation spent the next 30 years accelerating the demise of those industries in the name of lean/Six Sigma/black belt.

[ironmaniup]

FOR THE LAST TIME - THE STATISTICS DON'T SUPPORT THE IDEA THAT PEOPLE ARE CHOOSING PATHS OTHER THAN COLLEGE.

Well, the percent of students choosing college is decreasing slightly since about 2010, and if you separate out the demographic groups there are even more significant changes - but those statistics aren't always available, and many in academics don't want to look at those. In particular rural male students. The other part of the change is completion rate and completion rate at the starting university. . This number has been plateauing even with much more assistance and grade inflation. Students becoming financially unable, or deciding to stop trying because of the cost is increasing, sort along with the increase in transferring, Of course covid is having a big impact too. https://www.bls.gov/opub/ted/2020/66...tober-2019.htm

[boatcapt]

We are talking about PASSHE mergers due to enrolement decline so perhaps not a non sequitur. According to the DOL, in 2008 there were 442,000 persons in apprenticeships which included 132,000 new apprentices entering programs...in 2020, again according to the DOL, there were 633,000 persons enrolled in apprenticeships with 252,000 first year apprentices enrolled...That is a 43% increase in enrolled apprentices and a 91% increase in new enrolled apprentices.

[complaint_hopeful]

Yep. This generation of youth is small. It's going to have future ramifications of taxes and all kinds of things.

But yeah...the game generally is there are a lot of colleges setup from when demand was high. Then you have mega online schools, etc. The state support shrinking in PA. PA has a particularly bad demographic. Then as the market shrinks, private schools decrease their pricing or call it scholarships, etc.

The PASSHE schools are in probably the most competitive market segment in higher education too.

And, they're getting all of this Integration bad press. Even from PASSHE...the whole talking about how the whole system could fail from cross subsidization and how if the Integrations don't happen, he'll recommend dissolving PASSHE.

What student with other options would want in on this?

[Fightingscot82]

How's enrolement at PASSHE schools over say...the last 10 years??

Non sequitur. In the last decade, tech school and trade apprenticeship programs have experienced similar declines. Even the military has fewer enlistments for high school students.

Private college discounting has spread where students attend. But overall population decline especially in rust belt states is to blame for enrollment losses.

[boatcapt]

FOR THE LAST TIME - THE STATISTICS DON'T SUPPORT THE IDEA THAT PEOPLE ARE CHOOSING PATHS OTHER THAN COLLEGE.

How's enrolement at PASSHE schools over say...the last 10 years??

[Fightingscot82]

For decades the American public was preached to that the way to life success required a Bachelors degree of some sort. Blue collar workers were looked down on by the educated elite as somehow lesser no matter how successful they where. Over the last number of years, people have come to realize that there are many, many avenues to success that do not saddle 20 somthings with 40+ thousand in debt.

FOR THE LAST TIME - THE STATISTICS DON'T SUPPORT THE IDEA THAT PEOPLE ARE CHOOSING PATHS OTHER THAN COLLEGE.

[boatcapt]

Part of the difficulty is figuring market share changes, since the number of possible students is decreasing so much - but I'm pretty sure PASSHE has lost market share. Everybody in education is struggling except for the Pitt and PSU universities. I don't agree with the anti-elitism, most working, first gen families respect education, and understand the value, its just that all of the things added to the campus experiences in the last 10 or so years just don't have anything to do with them, so why should they bother?

For decades the American public was preached to that the way to life success required a Bachelors degree of some sort. Blue collar workers were looked down on by the educated elite as somehow lesser no matter how successful they where. Over the last number of years, people have come to realize that there are many, many avenues to success that do not saddle 20 somthings with 40+ thousand in debt.

An example...The average Steam Fitter apprentice salary in the DMV is $67,000/yr and the average journeyman salary is $97,000. So if you are a prospective college student, you are faced with choosing between MAKING $67k for 4 years and then getting an even larger pay raise OR facing the prospect of going to college for 4 years, racking up $40k in debt and starting your career making $40k or so.

[complaint_hopeful]

Well that's not good, especially if certain groupings of schools have to reverse course. This number is the amount of new deposited accepted students financially committed to attending a PASSHE school in the fall.

https://www.insidehighered.com/admis...ason-isnt-over

Hmm...Instead of tanking just the Integrations, maybe the entire state system will tank from all this bad press???