PASSHE Institutions Merging

[complaint_hopeful]

I would avoid the mindset that there is a solution for the woes of the PASSHE. Something that will make it all better.

It's a system in decline due to uncontrollable factors, mainly demographics but also some other economic factors.

The best that can be done is to manage the decline. That's what they are trying to do now.

Have a nice day!

Well online was something that could mitigate the demographic decline in PA, but most schools just kinda did it. They didn't do it great. Doing it great requires making some fundamental changes.

And there was a market for it. SNHU wasn't a household name. A lot of the big providers weren't. That could have been us!

Now, it might just be too late.

[iupgroundhog]

I would avoid the mindset that there is a solution for the woes of the PASSHE. Something that will make it all better.

It's a system in decline due to uncontrollable factors, mainly demographics but also some other economic factors.

The best that can be done is to manage the decline. That's what they are trying to do now.

Have a nice day!

[boatcapt]

Correct. The population in PA has been on the decline for decades. Population of high school graduates peaked around 2008 and PASSHE enrollment peaked around 2010. Surprisingly, college admissions is always aware of demographic studies but has always been able to ignore them. I think nearly every college thought they could persist through the decline of high school population. The biggest names will always be able to but the bottom 2/3 will see a wide range of impact.

The big cliff is coming though. The decline of young people was already getting steeper but 15-20 years from now it will be catastrophic. We're not having enough babies to replace our dying population even after immigration. And that was before Covid. Now with Covid, the gap between births and deaths is growing. People aren't reproducing even with marriage rates slightly increasing. They're not even adopting at the same rate as a few years ago. Since March 2020 there's been a huge dropoff in the number of people who think they're pregnant or who are actually pregnant. An alarming drop off.

So for higher ed, like I said, catastrophic. For government, probably the same. Fewer people means less tax revenue. I bet some states will be headed for a budget crisis in 15 years.

Many states and the federal government are already in a budget crisis. And for most, they were in crisis long before Covid!

[Fightingscot82]

I don't want to turn on baby boomers, but...

A lot of boomers raised kids in environments that made aging college facilities in the early 2000s seem unattractive. Kids were raised without sharing bedrooms, being able to eat at their convenience, with high speed internet, etc. So the response was not to refresh facilities and come up with better ways of selling it as part of the experience, it was to build, build, build. Boomers went to college with a lot of new facilities. New modern facilities were sold to them as part of their experience so they did in turn. The problem was that when everyone's building you just move the bar. Soon nearly everyone had a new student center with a la carte dining, high speed internet (later wifi), apartment and suite style campus housing, and new academic buildings. So in summary, boomer leadership thought they could revamp their campus with new/renovated buildings but it didn't matter.

The second is that boomers are retiring later so they're sticking around longer. They're now the grandparents of today's college students and 2 or 3 generations removed from the reality of today. They remembered taking out loans and being able to work their way through college. There's not a single state where that's possible anymore on minimum wage. Forbes had a good article on this a couple years ago. So now kids are saddled with debt, lagging wages, and a pretty large percentage of their total compensation (from the employer perspective) going to benefits. So this means young people saddled with debt and stagnant pay are less likely than ever to donate back to their college, buy a house, or have kids all while making less than they would have generations ago. Its a crisis all around. No good.

Sorry to trash baby boomers. But hey, they didn't start the fire, amiright?

[complaint_hopeful]

So my numbers above show that we are basically at 2000 levels of enrollment now as a system. I think the record highs of 2010 was like a false mirage, but instead of realizing a decline was coming, the schools built more buildings and hired A LOT of employees. And then as they gradually declined, they hung on to those employees. Some schools still seem to not be cutting employees, then when they finally do it's very drastic and instead of doing like 10 a year, they do like 80.

[complaint_hopeful]

Correct. The population in PA has been on the decline for decades. Population of high school graduates peaked around 2008 and PASSHE enrollment peaked around 2010. Surprisingly, college admissions is always aware of demographic studies but has always been able to ignore them. I think nearly every college thought they could persist through the decline of high school population. The biggest names will always be able to but the bottom 2/3 will see a wide range of impact.

The big cliff is coming though. The decline of young people was already getting steeper but 15-20 years from now it will be catastrophic. We're not having enough babies to replace our dying population even after immigration. And that was before Covid. Now with Covid, the gap between births and deaths is growing. People aren't reproducing even with marriage rates slightly increasing. They're not even adopting at the same rate as a few years ago. Since March 2020 there's been a huge dropoff in the number of people who think they're pregnant or who are actually pregnant. An alarming drop off.

So for higher ed, like I said, catastrophic. For government, probably the same. Fewer people means less tax revenue. I bet some states will be headed for a budget crisis in 15 years.

Yes - I read a book called The Accidental Superpower and saw the author speak at a conference. Part of his talk was on how when the Baby Boomers retire, which has already been happening that that the US is going to lose A LOT of tax revenue and have to raise taxes to compensate. Also, he talked about how the economy has been much better than it historically has ever been. We Americans expect this to continue indefinately, but he sees a reversion to the mean coming. There were a lot of nuances to these also. Like late career employees make the most money and you replace them with a lot of entry level workers making low money, etc.

He also talked about how the US basically patrols the oceans with our Navy making it safe for trade the world over. IF we stopped doing that, then oil prices could go crazy and there would be wars over oil and pirates would be attacking ships, etc.

Interesting read.

[Fightingscot82]

Yes but you also said:


The "most" refers to the PASSHE leadership and its member institutions. These are supposed to be the well-educated, PhD's, best and brightest among us. It wasn't even a matter of predicting the declines, just observing them.

Correct. The population in PA has been on the decline for decades. Population of high school graduates peaked around 2008 and PASSHE enrollment peaked around 2010. Surprisingly, college admissions is always aware of demographic studies but has always been able to ignore them. I think nearly every college thought they could persist through the decline of high school population. The biggest names will always be able to but the bottom 2/3 will see a wide range of impact.

The big cliff is coming though. The decline of young people was already getting steeper but 15-20 years from now it will be catastrophic. We're not having enough babies to replace our dying population even after immigration. And that was before Covid. Now with Covid, the gap between births and deaths is growing. People aren't reproducing even with marriage rates slightly increasing. They're not even adopting at the same rate as a few years ago. Since March 2020 there's been a huge dropoff in the number of people who think they're pregnant or who are actually pregnant. An alarming drop off.

So for higher ed, like I said, catastrophic. For government, probably the same. Fewer people means less tax revenue. I bet some states will be headed for a budget crisis in 15 years.

[complaint_hopeful]

Yes but you also said:


The "most" refers to the PASSHE leadership and its member institutions. These are supposed to be the well-educated, PhD's, best and brightest among us. It wasn't even a matter of predicting the declines, just observing them.

I saw a post on twitter that showed the PASSHE enrollment (in 2019) is right around where it was in 2000. The state funding is basically at the same level too. But, factor in inflation and having the same level of state funding...just isn't enough. So basically 20 years of flat state funding increases. We're 47th in state funding.

Here's the post: APSCUF Higher Education Govt. Relations on Twitter: "Did you know... PA State System enrollment - 2000 = 96,000 2019 = 96,000 PA State System faculty FTE - 2000 =5,145 2019 = 5,143 State Funding for PASSHE - 2000 =$471,821,000 2019 = $477,470,000 These numbers are critical to any discussion around enrollment trends." / Twitter

IF you took the systems above us in those rankings and kept the state funding flat for 20 years...and took them back to their 2000 funding level - How many would be considered failing financially? <-- This is a central point to this all.

And funding does more than just pay the bills. It lets you make strategic investments to grow programs. To make new programs, etc. Some schools want to be STEM schools and you need new microscopes and high end equipment, etc.

[Horror Child]

Probably headed that way anyway. A few weeks ago I mentioned the baby birth cliff that's coming in roughly 15 years - that received some news coverage last week. Is it a bad thing? Probably not - probably should have done it with the creation of PASSHE. The name was probably the biggest barrier since Penn State & U Penn are already taken. If that's the plan or even the probability, I say do University of Western Pennsylvania with Indiana as the hub and University of Eastern Pennsylvania with West Chester as the hub.

Yes but you also said:

So while it was easy to predict the demographic declines, the growth had been steady enough that most thought it was sustainable.

The "most" refers to the PASSHE leadership and its member institutions. These are supposed to be the well-educated, PhD's, best and brightest among us. It wasn't even a matter of predicting the declines, just observing them.

[complaint_hopeful]

Probably headed that way anyway. A few weeks ago I mentioned the baby birth cliff that's coming in roughly 15 years - that received some news coverage last week. Is it a bad thing? Probably not - probably should have done it with the creation of PASSHE. The name was probably the biggest barrier since Penn State & U Penn are already taken. If that's the plan or even the probability, I say do University of Western Pennsylvania with Indiana as the hub and University of Eastern Pennsylvania with West Chester as the hub.

Keystone University - City Name. Or Keystone State University - City Name.

But, yeah from the start imagine if they used 1 management team to manage like the East and West. It would be in better shape now. It's so much harder to reign that back in now.

[Fightingscot82]

And is this entire exercise anything more than a baby step? The consensus on here is that the current efforts will not yield the cost savings needed. And anything that needs to get "worked out" like athletics for each triad, would also apply to the entire 14-school system. Just to the chase, call it "PASSHE - town campus" across the board already.

Probably headed that way anyway. A few weeks ago I mentioned the baby birth cliff that's coming in roughly 15 years - that received some news coverage last week. Is it a bad thing? Probably not - probably should have done it with the creation of PASSHE. The name was probably the biggest barrier since Penn State & U Penn are already taken. If that's the plan or even the probability, I say do University of Western Pennsylvania with Indiana as the hub and University of Eastern Pennsylvania with West Chester as the hub.

[Horror Child]

There's no doubt that atleast some people know how they want this to turn out. But, I don't know...it doesn't seem like the teams are being given much guidance.

As far as the identity...that's a tricky one. Like they've been pretty clear that it will be a new University. But, they've also been clear that campuses keep their identity. How do you mesh the 2? How do you stay separate and the same?

I think it's a case of expectations. Also, they want it both ways. They don't want to alienate alumni and current students. But, they want to show lawmakers that they are making something new.

Tough decisions need made. It seems, atleast publically that they aren't announcing these.

For the campuses, my understanding is that the identities will be like - New U Name - Lock Haven campus, etc.

And is this entire exercise anything more than a baby step? The consensus on here is that the current efforts will not yield the cost savings needed. And anything that needs to get "worked out" like athletics for each triad, would also apply to the entire 14-school system. Just to the chase, call it "PASSHE - town campus" across the board already.

[IUPNation]

Everyone should transfer to IUP. :-)

[Bart]

Reading over the plans, I saw these.


Financial https://www.passhe.edu/SystemRedesig...l%20Review.pdf

A single accredited entityThree vibrant campuses, each with its own identity

Opportunities for pathways (2+2 Programs, etc.) "Some programs, including general education courses, will be offered in-person at all three campuses, others at one or two campuses based on student demand, faculty complement, facilities and other factors." Maybe they will start offering associate degrees and finish the bachelors at another school.
https://www.goerie.com/news/

Progress report https://www.passhe.edu/SystemRedesig...202-4-2021.pdf

"Not having any impact on donor funds or how they are managed or allocated; and donors will continue to be able to give to the campus (and cause) of choice"

[iupgroundhog]

Same. I don't see the 25% reduction being possible and I'm not the only one. Some friends and acquaintances who study higher ed for a living don't see it - and some have specific expertise in state systems, public regionals, and budget alignment. The clearest example is in athletics. I bet consolidating athletics was secretly being considered until they realized that it would result in a net financial loss of several million dollars per campus. Which means that its yet another albatross PR nightmare down the pike when they have to cut the plan and go back to independent schools.

They will have to show enough forward progress. 25 is just a number. If it's going in the right direction then they can negotiate the next steps. I think that's the way it works.