I think there are some harsh truths that Greenstein can't reveal publicly. The biggest harsh truth that he can't be forthcoming about is that 5 out of 6 of the integrated schools (except Bloomsburg) are going to be smaller than they are (and keep in mind they don't have sufficient enrollment at present).
How will it work. Here's what I think. Recently, I saw something pertaining to the western triad that said 75% of current students are enrolled in a program that exists in all 3 schools. Look, with few exceptions, they evolved to be all the same.
So, if they designate a "home" campus for a program the program is going to gravitate to that campus. If you are not at the home campus does it make any sense to end up taking a majority of your major courses online? In the PASSHE world I don't think it does. In my mind, by natural selection these duplicate programs are going to die off and be eliminated. And because duplication is inefficient, I think that's inevitable. In both triads, enrollment will continue to decline. That's just a continuation of current trends. Why would it be otherwise?
In addition, nobody knows what the impact of the ambiguity of forming the schools into triads will be on applications/enrollment. I think the impact will be negative and contribute to further enrollment declines. Why would it increase? Why would it even stay the same?
I think it's clear that the schools will contract under the triad arrangement. Greenstein can't tell you that. And he's not going to.
Also paramount is the NCAA determination whether to maintain separate athletics programs. Without that, identity retention is a pipe dream.
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Originally posted by Fightingscot82 View Post
I believe they've been distracted by fighting faculty cuts at places like IUP. I do believe they're bankrolling one of the online accounts fighting integrations. They've also got the Kutztown professor's Raging Chicken site.
And then, like this thing hasn't been even presented and approved by the board and the 60 day comment period before the other vote...and they have consultants working on names and I'm sure there are other things happening for the Integration. What if it gets rejected? They're out all that money they paid for that work. Kind of like they know it will be approved no matter what opposition comes out.
The whole fighting cuts by saying - 'This is a person and they deserve to make money is interesting. Losing their job hurts their family.' Not how corporate America operates. Not how managers and staff (many of which are in Unions) have been treated. Some of these schools have been furloughing mangers and staff for almost a decade. Faculty were kind of untouchable at some of these schools. So I don't know. I think people have to come to grips with the fact that the schools are doing bad financially and people are going to lose jobs...but that's better than shutting down a school totally.
I'm still waiting to see actual details on the Integration before I make up my mind.
That said, I have heard some pretty crazy goals like increase enrollment by a quite sizeable number over 5 or so years, etc. for atleast one of the triads. I hope that happens. I'm just skeptical that schools that have been losing enrollment for 7-8-9 years consistently will pool together and drastically gain in size. Especially with a new entity created that has no brand reputation and the long term viability of it is shaky at best. Like the Triads could fail. It's possible. They could also wildly succeed. It's unknow. If you are a 17 year old kid, do you want to be the one that goes there and risks that?
And if say the triad does gain a considerable amount of students, I think atleast some percent will be pulled from other PASSHE schools. Especially if the Triad tries to lower the cost of education.
I'm eagerly awaiting the projections on this kind of stuff (Enrollment projections/Financial Savings projections/etc)...and it's largely from the consultants and I want to see the data that led them to those projections. Or I want to see if they just pulled wildly optimistic numbers from a hat with nothing really backing it up.
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Originally posted by Fightingscot82 View PostThanks for sharing that. I do believe the "PA Publics" advocacy group (I believe they are the Lock Haven community group) is right for criticizing the chancellor for cherry-picking 2010 for statistics. I was unaware that system enrollment is presently at a similar level as 2000. The kicker is that state appropriation is down over $200MM in real dollars since 2000.
That said, no matter what statistics on ROI PASSHE puts out...I doubt the funding increases enough to help. The Integrations are what is proposed and that's the path I think they'll be pushed down to try to save this. I'd be curious how the ROI was calculated too. Like was it so high because the state contribution as a percentage is so low? Ie where if the state paid more, ROI decreased?
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Thanks for sharing that. I do believe the "PA Publics" advocacy group (I believe they are the Lock Haven community group) is right for criticizing the chancellor for cherry-picking 2010 for statistics. I was unaware that system enrollment is presently at a similar level as 2000. The kicker is that state appropriation is down over $200MM in real dollars since 2000.
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Originally posted by Fightingscot82 View Post
I assumed the statistics being pushed by PASSHE this week were newer than 2015. If there is a new report, I'm working on finding it.
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Originally posted by Horror Child View Post
But just yesterday you wrote that the "state released a report..." and now you can't find it?
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Originally posted by Fightingscot82 View Post
I can't seem to find anything newer than this 2015 report, which mirrors the statistic in PASSHE's tweet. I'll keep looking for something newer.
https://www.passhe.edu/SystemData/Do...pactReport.pdf
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Originally posted by Horror Child View Post
I saw the tweet. Can you share a link to the report?
https://www.passhe.edu/SystemData/Do...pactReport.pdf
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Originally posted by Fightingscot82 View PostThe state released a report that there's a 10-for-1 return on investment for PASSHE. That's pretty significant.
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Originally posted by iupgroundhog View Post
Interesting results considering that Greenstein claims the only community against it is in Lock Haven. Of course, that's the community, implying both inside and outside the university.
If faculty is so overwhelmingly against it then why haven't we seen more resistance across the board?
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Originally posted by Fightingscot82 View Post70% of faculty surveyed are against integrations. Only 7% believe the process has been transparent. Not good.
https://www.post-gazette.com/news/ed...s/202104070102
If faculty is so overwhelmingly against it then why haven't we seen more resistance across the board?
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70% of faculty surveyed are against integrations. Only 7% believe the process has been transparent. Not good.
https://www.post-gazette.com/news/ed...s/202104070102
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Originally posted by IUPbigINDIANS View Post
I don't disagree. I'm referring more to the kids in 12th grade right now. Those are the kids deciding not to come to our schools in the volume they used to do so. As we keep saying, as the money gets closer, we'll continue to lose more and more of them to the more 'name' schools.
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Originally posted by BADinPA View Post[/I]
I agree with that -- to an extent.
I was referring more to the actual recruitment of students -- and the mindset of today's highly sought after kids. In the mind of an 18-year-old, most want the name. If the money is fairly close, often times they can convince Mom and Dad to pay the extra couple bucks. Twenty-some years ago I'd have much rather said I went to Pitt than IUP.
I don't disagree. I'm referring more to the kids in 12th grade right now. Those are the kids deciding not to come to our schools in the volume they used to do so. As we keep saying, as the money gets closer, we'll continue to lose more and more of them to the more 'name' schools.
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