Northwest Bearcats at Ferris State Bulldogs

[DawgUp]

Any notable injuries for NW coming into the game?

[ForeverGreen]

Starting QB had a bad foot (work).

[Mk63NuclearBomb]

Staying in 3rd and manageable will be a big key. We're only converting 35% of 3rd downs on the season. I was honestly a little shocked to see that stat.

Ferris leads the nation in opponent's 3rd down percentage at 24%, but NW isn't far behind at 32%. The bigger problem for NW in my opinion is that Ferris converts 46% of their 3rd down opportunities.

[Gorilla John 92]

To me it was the rotating of offensive lineman throughout the game. Always seem to have fresh people out there and it wore down the Mule defense.

[ForeverGreen]

I read somewhere yesterday that NW has the #1 red zone scoring offense in the nation. If true and Ferris gives up some yards between the 20s, the offense could have some success.

[catbacker07]

I read somewhere yesterday that NW has the #1 red zone scoring offense in the nation. If true and Ferris gives up some yards between the 20s, the offense could have some success.

[Mk63NuclearBomb]

On the other side of the coin, Ferris is 8th in red zone D, allowing 10 TD's and 5 FG's against 24 opportunities for their opponent. Both the 15 scores and 24 opportunities are either best or tied for best in the country, but the NCAA stat page goes off red zone %.

[catbacker07]

On the other side of the coin, Ferris is 8th in red zone D, allowing 10 TD's and 5 FG's against 24 opportunities for their opponent. Both the 15 scores and 24 opportunities are either best or tied for best in the country, but the NCAA stat page goes off red zone %.

[Mk63NuclearBomb]

Of course, we also got a LOT of those points against some pretty bad teams, so....

That's what makes NW so hard to judge IMO. By my math, NW beat teams .500 or over by roughly 12 ppg, and sub-.500 teams by about 44 ppg. That doesn't tell us anything other than "bad teams are bad". Ferris hasn't been as dominant against bad teams but they are at least consistent, beating teams .500 or better by 29 ppg and sub-.500 teams by 27 ppg.

[Brandon]

That's what makes NW so hard to judge IMO. By my math, NW beat teams .500 or over by roughly 12 ppg, and sub-.500 teams by about 44 ppg. That doesn't tell us anything other than "bad teams are bad". Ferris hasn't been as dominant against bad teams but they are at least consistent, beating teams .500 or better by 29 ppg and sub-.500 teams by 27 ppg.

Quit clogging up your analysis with .500 teams and non .500 teams and what not. That's schedule related.

Use these games:

Ferris State v. Ashland, Ferris State v. Wayne State, Ferris State v. Grand Valley, and Ferris State v. Central Missouri

And compare with...

Northwest Missouri v. Missouri Western, Northwest Missouri v. Fort Hays, Northwest Missouri v. Central Missouri, and Northwest Missouri v. Harding

I think you'll find an answer closer to reality if you compare the performances against the best teams on each schedule.

[Mk63NuclearBomb]

Quit clogging up your analysis with .500 teams and non .500 teams and what not. That's schedule related.

Use these games:

Ferris State v. Ashland, Ferris State v. Wayne State, Ferris State v. Grand Valley, and Ferris State v. Central Missouri

And compare with...

Northwest Missouri v. Missouri Western, Northwest Missouri v. Fort Hays, Northwest Missouri v. Central Missouri, and Northwest Missouri v. Harding

I think you'll find an answer closer to reality if you compare the performances against the best teams on each schedule.

I think the over/under .500 dichotomy was necessary since catbacker mentioned scoring a lot against bad teams, but doing the math for games you suggested:

Ferris vs. Ashland, WSU, GV, and CMo.: 36 points for, 13 points against, +23 margin

NW vs. Western, Ft. Hays, CMo., and Harding: 33 points for, 24 points against, +9 margin

Offense is approximately the same with an edge to Ferris, but defense is where there's real separation. Ferris has held good teams to 11 fewer ppg than NW has.

[NWFanatic]

Any notable injuries for NW coming into the game?

#1 DBack Chama Pierce out for the year

[Alfred33]

I think this shows why the big plays are so important to Northwest's success. The playcalling and BW disgruntlement (maybe a little chicken and egg) comes from the inability to sustain drives, 3 and outs, 3 down percentage, etc. Whether its all completely justified or not is debatable. Watching the games and not looking at seasonal statistics, especially against the better defenses we've faced, there's a noticeable difference in the offensive flow compared to what we grew accustomed to in the AD years. There's nothing smooth or clean about it.. having a good running game has saved this offense from being abysmal, and we can't get away from that like we have at times. At the same time, we've got to be able to complete some passes and hit a couple big ones to give those guys some room.

Having the backs we do, with a quarterback that can find the goal line with his legs too has to make playcalling easier in the redzone. As far as points scored, we can add in 10 defensive or kick return TDs to our total too... I have no idea where that would rank nationally, but that seems pretty good to me.

[Fro-th_and_goal]

Ferris leads the nation in opponent's 3rd down percentage at 24%, but NW isn't far behind at 32%. The bigger problem for NW in my opinion is that Ferris converts 46% of their 3rd down opportunities.

I think most NW fans would agree with me that we have more faith in our defense than offense to beat averages and "over perform."

[Mk63NuclearBomb]

I think most NW fans would agree with me that we have more faith in our defense than offense to beat averages and "over perform."

That's fair, NW has had a reputation for fielding terrifying defenses longer than I've been alive