OT: D1

[EyeoftheHawk]

Nice win for Pitt today in the Backyard Brawl. Two weeks in a row they were dead in the water and found a way to win late. They should have a lot of confidence going into conference play.

[IUPbigINDIANS]

In case you missed it, Oklahoma State's Obi Ezeigbo (formerly of Gannon) had a huge breakout game this past Saturday.

HC Mike Gundy then spoke about Ezeigbo earlier this week -- a conversation that is getting some serious headlines.

A snippet:


So when Gundy asked the Oklahoma State media on Monday whether they wanted the truth or coach-speak about how his staff ended up recruiting linebacker Obi Ezeigbo as a transfer from Division II Gannon University, there was only one answer. With Gundy, his version of the truth is always going to be worth the price of admission.

“He was very inexpensive,” Gundy said after Ezeigbo was named Big 12 newcomer of the week. “The number of players we go after that were ready to play at this level, we can't afford. So he was a good buy and a really quality young man that had had success, and has physical characteristics we can work with and develop. So that's why he ended up here, in my opinion. We saw some things we felt like we could develop into a good player at this level, and it wasn’t going to cost us the money we didn’t have.”

[TheBigCat2192]

Part of the NFL logic is the XPs aren't a gimme anymore (or much less of a gimme than they used to be).

Last season the league average XP% was 95.9%. You’re right that it’s not the 99.5% that it used to be but a make is still much more likely than a miss. Unfortunately I can’t easily find the NCAA average for 2023 as a comparison because Sports-Reference doesn’t have uniform stat tables between Pro-Football-Reference and Sports-Reference/CFB (mind-boggingly dumb design choice in my eyes.)

[IUPbigINDIANS]

Going for two down eight (or after scoring a TD when down 14 if you’d prefer to think of it that way) has been a big argument on sports X/the sports internet for probably a solid five years or so but it’s become more notable since NFL teams have increasingly started doing it. It’s been a shouting point for analytics/probability minded people even longer. This ESPN article (a 2023 repost of an article originally run in 2019) goes into detail about some of the probabilities involved. I haven’t taken a statistics class in quite a while so I can’t vouch for the math but it’s a decent explainer. I’m not sure what the math says in the same situation for CFB teams but by and large I don’t think the practice has trickled down to college football yet.

Part of the NFL logic is the XPs aren't a gimme anymore (or much less of a gimme than they used to be).

[TheBigCat2192]

On TV they were saying it's the new trend in analytics. I don't get it.

Going for two down eight (or after scoring a TD when down 14 if you’d prefer to think of it that way) has been a big argument on sports X/the sports internet for probably a solid five years or so but it’s become more notable since NFL teams have increasingly started doing it. It’s been a shouting point for analytics/probability minded people even longer. This ESPN article (a 2023 repost of an article originally run in 2019) goes into detail about some of the probabilities involved. I haven’t taken a statistics class in quite a while so I can’t vouch for the math but it’s a decent explainer. I’m not sure what the math says in the same situation for CFB teams but by and large I don’t think the practice has trickled down to college football yet.

[Fightingscot82]

Howard sucks!

Its hard to tell because they play in the MEAC, one of the HBCU conferences that play in the Celebration Bowl instead of participating in the FCS playoffs. This is why it was so hard to adequately judge Deion Sanders' coaching ability because he didn't truly play a national schedule against the full slate of great FCS teams.

But last year...

lost to Eastern Michigan 23-33

beat Robert Morris 35-10

lost to Northwestern 20-23

won the MEAC and lost to Florida A&M in the Celebration Bowl 26-30

[Ship69]

Howard sucks!

They weren't bad last season. I have no idea how they are this year.

[Chuck Norris]

Howard sucks!

This year they very well might, I have no idea. The last couple years they’ve been pretty decent. In any case, I think they’d be at least comparable to what the NEC has to offer.

[IUPalum]

Not sure anyone here cares to know, but Mercyhurst played their first game against a D1 opponent Saturday at Howard and should have won but gave it away in excruciating fashion. They rallied from 21-3 down and took a 31-27 lead on a TD with about 40 seconds left. But the extra point was blocked and returned for two points. Hurst’s kickoff then went out of bounds giving Howard great field position to drive for the game winning field goal on the game’s final play.

Howard sucks!

[Chuck Norris]

That's terrible if they are competitive in a D1 league. They are terrible.

That’s the NEC for you. Like I said, I’m not sure how they’ll hold up over the course of a whole season, but man for man Mercyhurst probably isn’t nearly as overmatched as we might think.

[Fightingscot82]

That's terrible if they are competitive in a D1 league. They are terrible.

I'd argue that there's a 30-50% overlap between divisions. So a bad FCS team would struggle with a mediocre D2 team.

[Ram040506]

On paper, if they can compete that well against Howard they should be very competitive against the NEC. Obviously it’s hard to project how injuries etc. will impact their season. Montana State is going to lay an awful beating on them in a couple weeks.

That's terrible if they are competitive in a D1 league. They are terrible.

[IUPNation]

Not sure anyone here cares to know, but Mercyhurst played their first game against a D1 opponent Saturday at Howard and should have won but gave it away in excruciating fashion. They rallied from 21-3 down and took a 31-27 lead on a TD with about 40 seconds left. But the extra point was blocked and returned for two points. Hurst’s kickoff then went out of bounds giving Howard great field position to drive for the game winning field goal on the game’s final play.

Good. They deserved it.

[Chuck Norris]

Mercy gets Moon Twp next

On paper, if they can compete that well against Howard they should be very competitive against the NEC. Obviously it’s hard to project how injuries etc. will impact their season. Montana State is going to lay an awful beating on them in a couple weeks.

[IUP24]

The Lyke situation seems to be becoming clearer.

1. She had no real plans for ushering Pitt's athletic department into the next wave of college athletics.
2. She had massive differences with Joan Gabel and the board regarding how they chose to utilize athletic donations.
3. Her adamancy to push ahead with the Victory Heights project proved to be an issue.

Pitt will be okay.