West Liberty Hilltopper Basketball

[timbertopper]

Very hard to get a read on West Liberty and the region in general so far. The Hilltoppers have a bad loss to sub-500 W.Va. Wesleyan but may - or may not - have righted the ship with the last three wins.Ohio Valley was coming off a win against a Davis & Elkins team that beat Fairmont in Fairmont while Ohio Dominican came in with one-possession losses to Top 25 Ashland and Indianapolis. W.Va. State hasn't beaten anybody with a pulse but is 8-3 with competitive losses to Fairmont and Glenville. Glenville punks Fairmont and loses by double figures at home to Salem. Ship takes back-to-back losses to Fairmont and UPJ and then knocks off IUP. UPJ is 10-2 with quality wins against Ship and East Stroudsburg but both losses are to sub-500 teams (Concord, Bloomsburg). West Chester is still unbeaten - and largely untested. Charleston has home wins against West Liberty and Glenville but road losses at Fairmont and sub-500 Concord. Somebody needs to start stringing some wins together and take control of the region but outside of West Chester (take a look at that schedule), I don't see that happening.

[IUPbigINDIANS]

Very hard to get a read on West Liberty and the region in general so far. The Hilltoppers have a bad loss to sub-500 W.Va. Wesleyan but may - or may not - have righted the ship with the last three wins.Ohio Valley was coming off a win against a Davis & Elkins team that beat Fairmont in Fairmont while Ohio Dominican came in with one-possession losses to Top 25 Ashland and Indianapolis. W.Va. State hasn't beaten anybody with a pulse but is 8-3 with competitive losses to Fairmont and Glenville. Glenville punks Fairmont and loses by double figures at home to Salem. Ship takes back-to-back losses to Fairmont and UPJ and then knocks off IUP. UPJ is 10-2 with quality wins against Ship and East Stroudsburg but both losses are to sub-500 teams (Concord, Bloomsburg). West Chester is still unbeaten - and largely untested. Charleston has home wins against West Liberty and Glenville but road losses at Fairmont and sub-500 Concord. Somebody needs to start stringing some wins together and take control of the region but outside of West Chester (take a look at that schedule), I don't see that happening.

Like I said last week on one of these threads ... I don't see a dominant team in the Atlantic this year. There are lots of good teams, but if this first half was any indication, there's no short list of 2-3 teams which are far ahead of everybody else. Mercyhurst and IUP both have their best player lost for the season. Kutztown's star has missed the whole year. ESU's star was lost before the season started. UPJ's star is now out with a wrist injury. Fayetteville State had that big start but lost twice last week. Ship and WL have three losses already. Virginia State had a terrible start by their standards. The sudden (somewhat) parity is going to make for a real exciting regular season. The races in the PSAC West and, in particular, the East, are going to be wars.

[boatcapt]

So basically Cheyney 3 times! Good work!

At least they are DII teams!

[IUPalum]

Three losses before Christmas and got throttled by the only good team you played! Merry Christmas Boat!!!

[Scrub]

Somebody needs to start stringing some wins together and take control of the region but outside of West Chester (take a look at that schedule), I don't see that happening.

That looks like Boat's dream schedule. They've only left the greater Philly area once (for the first crossover weekend). They have nice (albeit very close) wins against Mercy & Cal. But those, of course, came at home. We'll see if they can continue to play well when they finally leave their building for the second half for games @ Ship & @ ESU. Looks like WCU took a page out of the St. Crutch scheduling playbook. Let's see if the Regional voters reward them . . . or give them a 4 seed. ; )

[IUPbigINDIANS]

That looks like Boat's dream schedule. They've only left the greater Philly area once (for the first crossover weekend). They have nice (albeit very close) wins against Mercy & Cal. But those, of course, came at home. We'll see if they can continue to play well when they finally leave their building for the second half for games @ Ship & @ ESU. Looks like WCU took a page out of the St. Crutch scheduling playbook. Let's see if the Regional voters reward them . . . or give them a 4 seed. ; )

Prior to this past weekend's games, West Chester's schedule was ranked as the 307th toughest out of 310 D2 teams by NCAA.com

That would be Boat's dream schedule.

[boatcapt]

That looks like Boat's dream schedule. They've only left the greater Philly area once (for the first crossover weekend). They have nice (albeit very close) wins against Mercy & Cal. But those, of course, came at home. We'll see if they can continue to play well when they finally leave their building for the second half for games @ Ship & @ ESU. Looks like WCU took a page out of the St. Crutch scheduling playbook. Let's see if the Regional voters reward them . . . or give them a 4 seed. ; )

And look where they sit in the Region...at least right now!

As for Nova and Crutch, they played a series of tomato cans to open the season and then one tough team over Christmas break...how are they doing in their Region and at the national level??

[Scrub]

And look where they sit in the Region...at least right now!

As for Nova and Crutch, they played a series of tomato cans to open the season and then one tough team over Christmas break...how are they doing in their Region and at the national level??

Right. But they had better run the table. I would guess they would only sit atop the Region in March if they're undefeated and everybody else has multiple losses. With a schedule like that, if they happen to lose one of their East games going forward (Ship, ESU, Shep, Kutz), I would think they drop precipitously. That was often the reason why Crutch failed to host in the years he failed to host. 1. Easy schedule; 2. One or two unexpected losses in the conference; 3. Someone else reasonably strong (IUP, ESU, WJU) emerged to snatch the top spot. My money is on us having to travel to Indiana (not Philly) for Regionals this year.

[IUPbigINDIANS]

Right. But they had better run the table. I would guess they would only sit atop the Region in March if they're undefeated and everybody else has multiple losses. With a schedule like that, if they happen to lose one of their East games going forward (Ship, ESU, Shep, Kutz), I would think they drop precipitously. That was often the reason why Crutch failed to host in the years he failed to host. 1. Easy schedule; 2. One or two unexpected losses in the conference; 3. Someone else reasonably strong (IUP, ESU, WJU) emerged to snatch the top spot. My money is on us having to travel to Indiana (not Philly) for Regionals this year.

Easy there. We'll see. I'd guess IUP loses 3-4 games the rest of the way. I'm projecting them now at 4-5 losses. That won't be good enough to host.

WCU won't run the table. The East will be brutal. But, max they lose the rest of the way is 2-3 games.

If they stay healthy, my money is on WCU hosting.

[Columbuseer]

[Scrub]

No doubt, Columbus. WLU is going to have to keep playing, gelling, and winning to get to March. But their couple of early-season slips could mean they enter March with a lower seed than usual, and I doubt anyone wants to see them show up as, say, a 5 or 6 seed in their first round game!

[boatcapt]

Easy there. We'll see. I'd guess IUP loses 3-4 games the rest of the way. I'm projecting them now at 4-5 losses. That won't be good enough to host.

WCU won't run the table. The East will be brutal. But, max they lose the rest of the way is 2-3 games.

If they stay healthy, my money is on WCU hosting.

According the wisdom on this board, the only way WCU could possibly host with 2-3 losses and their weak schedule would be for everyone else to have at least five losses!!!

[boatcapt]

Right. But they had better run the table. I would guess they would only sit atop the Region in March if they're undefeated and everybody else has multiple losses. With a schedule like that, if they happen to lose one of their East games going forward (Ship, ESU, Shep, Kutz), I would think they drop precipitously. That was often the reason why Crutch failed to host in the years he failed to host. 1. Easy schedule; 2. One or two unexpected losses in the conference; 3. Someone else reasonably strong (IUP, ESU, WJU) emerged to snatch the top spot. My money is on us having to travel to Indiana (not Philly) for Regionals this year.

Really only one time since 2011 can anyone claim that the NCAA tried to "discipline" WLU for playing a weak schedule...That was 2018 when they lost 3 but were seeded behind a 4 loss and two 5 loss teams. Every other year, WLU was seeded right were their W/L record says they should have been seeded. Last year four loss WLU was seeded #2 behind 2 loss IUP, 2017 3 loss WLU was seeded behind a 3 and 2 loss team, 2016 3 loss WLU was seeded #2 behind another 3 loss team, 2015 3 loss WLU was seeded #1, 2014 3 loss WLU was seeded #2 behind a 1 loss team, and 2011-2013, WLU was seeded #1.

I would say there is far more evidence that the main predictor of were a team is going to be seeded in the NCAA tourney is W/L relative to other teams and NOT SOS. I would surmise that the selection committee more often than not uses SOS as a tie breaker among teams with the same number of losses. Soooooooooooo...As I've said all along, rule #1 in scheduling is don't schedule a team you believe you might lose to!!!! That possible loss will hurt you more at NCAA tourney seeding time than any advantage you think you gain in being "tougher" in the playoffs.

[boatcapt]

No doubt, Columbus. WLU is going to have to keep playing, gelling, and winning to get to March. But their couple of early-season slips could mean they enter March with a lower seed than usual, and I doubt anyone wants to see them show up as, say, a 5 or 6 seed in their first round game!

If they can't be a #1, I'd almost rather see them as a 7 or an 8. An immediate chance to steal the #1 or #2 side of the bracket in the first round!

[Columbuseer]

If they can't be a #1, I'd almost rather see them as a 7 or an 8. An immediate chance to steal the #1 or #2 side of the bracket in the first round!

Good one boat! The wl style is so different I would imagine most top seeded teams would prefer to play them later rather than in first round, despite fact one has less time to prepare.