West Liberty Hilltopper Basketball

[Scrub]

This post isn't necessarily apropos of yesterday's game. Yesterday's game was what it was. There really wasn't anything on the line except for pride in beating your rival (and that's nothing to sneeze at, for sure). But the Regional was gonna go through Erie regardless. The conference championship and top seed in the MEC tourney was already sewn up. Make better than 50% of your free throws and maybe the result is different, but it was what it was.

That aside, this post is sparked by something an IUP poster said on the IUP thread coupled with something Boat had been saying 3 months ago. If you recall, Boat asked at the beginning of the season what was going to be different about this Coker roster wearing black and gold instead of blue and gold? This was, for all intents and purposes, the very same team that went 19-10 in Conference Carolinas last year. Boat asked why we thought the results would be different in a Hilltopper jersey. But perhaps to Boat's surprise, it was different. It's a team that went 24-4 in the MEC with virtually the same roster that went 19-10 last year. So what happened?

I'm wondering about two possibilities (one that's complimentary and one that it's a little more worrisome):

1. Possibility #1 is that the ASRC is a legit, measurable home court advantage. Coker went only 7-5 at home last year playing in their empty gym. West Liberty went 14-0 this year playing in front of 1000 people every night at the ASRC. Maybe that actually makes a difference. There are very few atmospheres in the MEC that feel like a rocking ASRC. So perhaps Boat's question failed to account for the legitimacy of the ASRC home court advantage (which meant a +7 win difference in the home record). That's a fun possibility to think about: ASRC as "sixth man."

2. But the more worrisome possibility is the thought that was prompted by the IUP poster. IUPalum was lamenting what he called the lack of "killers" on the IUP team. Too many nice guys; not enough stone cold "killers" (figuratively speaking) that resulted in IUP getting bullied by Gannon and Cal this week. Like IUP, WLU has always prided itself on having a roster full of said "killers." Nobody was as stone cold as Dalton Bolon. That guy genuinely HATED to lose. That was the WLU way for a long time. Quality humans for sure (like the current Dr. Alex Falk, Dr. CJ Hester, etc.), but also "killers" 'between the black lines.

But if you look at this year's roster and had to rank the "killers" in order of intensity, the order probably looks something like:

Myles Montgomery
Dante Spadafora
Cam Williams
Then maybe you get down to an Aidan Davis or Landon Butler.

But are you noticing a pattern? Montgomery, Spadafora, Williams, & Davis were all Howlett's recruits (and Howlett definitely spent some time working on the Butler family too). Howlett was the Chief Killer for sure (that dude never smiled once when talking basketball), and as a result he consistently recruited "killers." The Coker fellas seem like really nice dudes, but they also don't seem to have a lot of "killer" in them. Hayden Abdullah seems like a really nice kid that would be pleasant to have lunch with, but he isn't scaring anyone. Could that be what accounts for a +7 win difference? Pair Coker's talent for scoring last year with Howlett's stone cold "killers" and that's how you get 7 more wins?

This explanation for how Coker's roster outperformed themselves once they changed jerseys is the more worrisome explanation of the two because this is obviously the last year WLU gets to reap the benefits of a Howlett recruiting class (in fact, WLU will now have to recruit against Howlett for the same types of guys). And let's not even get into the portal mess that will have us all wondering which guys we get to keep in a few weeks. (Please stay, Cam, we need you.)

It's true that Lamberti himself was a really intense dude when he played (he was the dude in the middle of the pre-game huddle firing everyone up when he was on the team--the role currently filled by Myles Montgomery), so we can only hope that he'll have just as much eye for recruiting "killers" as Howlett did.

[Columbuseer]

FYI
Some observations on Wheeling game.
I originally thought that foul shooting was the deciding factor. Then I realized that I was experiencing recency bias. Wheeling only made 5 more three throws than WLU.

Typically, much of the margin of victory for WLU is points off turnovers. In this game, points off turnovers were 19-12 in favor of wheeling. Turnovers were tied at 12, much less than typical opponent turnovers.

A Dummy’s Observations on WLU vs Wheeling 2/28/26 WLU 91 - WU 93

Wheeling Univ. (WU) Preview
Wheeling University has around 1,100 undergrad and grad students. They are 11-5 and 6-3 in the MEC. They are a dangerous 3-pt. shooting team; #23, #12, and #2 all shoot over 40% from three. Also, starters #1 and #10 shoot over 35% from three. Three players average double figures, led by #1 (18.1), #10 (15.9), #4 (14.4), #13 (9), and #23 (8). They average about 11.5 turnovers and create about 8.7 steals per game. They typically are not a dominating rebounding team. Only seven players play over 14 minutes a game. #1 and #5 play over 30 minutes a game.
If they shoot much better than WLU, they could give WLU trouble. The key is for WLU to wear them out with pressure and generate turnovers.

WU Game Plan
The WU strategy seemed to be:

• PASSED– Limit the turnover margin. WU had an excellent 12 turnovers, while forcing WLU to 12 turnovers with quick hands and by overplaying the passing lanes. Seven of the 12 forced turnovers were steals. It is very rare that a WLU opponent ties or wins the turnover margin. WU won the points off turnovers 19-12. IMHO, this was the key to the WU victory. WU had a great defensive plan.
• PASSED – Attack WLU inside with their athletic players and kick out to their 3-point shooters. The accepted vulnerability of the WLU trapping defense is an open look shot from the corner in transition. WU was shooting and making threes from the corner.
• PASSED– Win the rebounding battle, especially limiting offensive rebounds by WLU. WU won the offensive rebounding battle 11-8, and outrebounded WLU overall 34-29.
• PASSED– Shoot near their average. WU shot well above their average in all categories.

Wheeling Stat	Season Avg	WLU Game
FG%	45.6%	54.7%
3FG%	33.6%	41.7%
FT%	73.0%	81.3%
Made 3s per game	10	10

• PASSED – Limit WU fatigue. WU had excellent physical conditioning. They had few turnovers, even after playing two players 35 minutes, and three players playing 29, 27, and 25 minutes respectively. They started to ran out of gas midway through the second half, but they hit key shots and avoided turnovers, while still playing good defense.

Keys to the WLU Game
This was a very high-level basketball game, with both teams were performing at the 90^th percentile D1 level in many categories. The offensive rating for WU was 129, while WLU was 126 (D1 90^th percentile is 113). WLU shot exceptionally well from 2FG at 61.1% and 3FG at 50%. WU shot 62.5% 2FG and 41.7% 3FG. WLU shot 57.1% FT (season average is 75%), while WU shot 81.3% FT (season average is 73%). However, WU only made 5 more FT than WLU, so it was not the key to the WLU loss.
Key factors were:

• Like the first game, WU did not commit excessive turnovers, which were tied at 12. WU actually scored more points off turnovers at 19-12.
• Tee Harris #4 as 16-23 (70%, while season average as 50%) and 2-5 from three (season average 30%). He is a 14.4 point per game scorer who had a career night of 35 points. WLU could not defend him in transition.
• IMHO, the WLU offense got stagnant in the last 10 minutes of the game and was not getting assists inside on back-door cuts or easy shots.
• Couple the above factors in with some missed shots inside by WLU and you have the ingredients for an upset by a good team.

Areas for Improvement for WLU

• WLU is still tending to make lazy, casual passes out front or in the backcourt. Both WLU players need to recognize that the defender is waiting to sprint in front of their teammate to intercept the pass.
• Like most losses, there are learning opportunities that can pay dividends in the future. WLU will encounter other mobile, athletic big men like Harris in the future, so limiting their effectiveness will be crucial.

[Columbuseer]

FYI
For those interested in data analytics...
Red background are values 20% below D1 median; Green background are values > D1 90th percentile

WLU at Wheeling 2/28/26 game 28
Statistic	Wheeling	WLU	WLU Season Avg	WLU Season Totals	2024 D1 Median Value For Comparison
FGM	35	35	34.8	974	N/A - sensitive to number of possessions
FGA	64	62	70.4	1972	N/A - sensitive to number of possessions
FTM	13	8	19.0	531	N/A - sensitive to number of possessions
FTA	16	14	25.2	705	N/A - sensitive to number of possessions
Three Point FGM	10	13	10.8	302	N/A - sensitive to number of possessions
three Point FGA	24	26	30.2	845	N/A - sensitive to number of possessions
Off REB	11	8	11.4	318	N/A - sensitive to number of possessions
Def REB	23	21	25.6	718	N/A - sensitive to number of possessions
Total REB	34	29	37.0	1036	N/A - sensitive to number of possessions
Personal Fouls	13	14	19.2	538
Assists	17	14	18.8	525	d1 median 13.7 90th percentile 16.5
Turnovers	12	12	12.5	350	d1 median 11.6 90th percentile 10.2
Blocks	6	1	2.2	61	d1 median 3.4 90th percentile 4.7
Steals	7	9	12.1	338	d1 median 7.0 90th percentile 8.7
Turnovers Forced	12	12	19.8	555	d1 median 12.4 90th pctile 14.6
Points off Turnovers	19	12			N/A
Points in the Paint	46	40			N/A
Second Chance Points	15	3			N/A
Fast Break Points	10	9			N/A
Bench Points	20	36			N/A
Points	93	91	99.3	2781	D1 median 74.9 90th pctile 81
Games Played	27	28	28.0	28
Number of Possessions	72	72	82.7	2314	median 70.7 90th pctile 74.6
Pts per Possession	1.29	1.26	1.2	1.20	median 1.034 90th pctile 1.134
Effective Possession Ratio EPR =(Possessions + Off. Rebounds - Turnovers) / Possessions	0.99	0.945	1.0	0.986	median .953 90th pctile .994
Offensive Rating - pts/100 possessions	129	126	120.2	120	median 103.4 90th pctile 113.4
Shooting Efficiency (FGM +0.5*3ptFGM) /FGA	62.5%	66.9%	0.6	57%	median 50.5% 90th pctile 55.4%
True Shooting % (0.5*(PTS*(FGA+(0.44*FTA)))	65.5%	66.8%	0.6	61%	median 54.2% 90th pctile 58.9%
FT %	81.3%	57.1%	0.8	75%	median 71.9% 90th pctile 77.9%
FG%	54.7%	56.5%	0.5	49%	median 44.1% 90th pctile 47.9%
3PT%	41.7%	50.0%	0.4	36%	median 33.3% 90th pctile 37.4%
2PT%	62.5%	61.1%	0.6	60%	median is about 47.8% 90th pctile 50.8%
Turnovers Per Game	12	12	12.5	13	median 12.1 90th pctile 10.4
Turnover Margin (+ is good)	0	0	19.4	7.3	D1 median 0.6 90th percentile 3
Turnover %	16.7%	16.6%	0.2	15%	typicall D1 is 15% to 20%
Forced Live Ball Turnovers % of total Forced Turnovers	58.3%	75.0%	0.6	61%	estimate: median(steals)/median(turnovers)
Points per Opponent Turnover	1.58	1.00	N/A	N/A	N/A
Assists % of FG Made	48.6%	40.0%	0.5	54%	median 51.6% 90th pctile 59.8%
Assist to Turnover Ratio	1.42	1.17	1.5	1.50	median 1.087 90th pctile 1.487
Defensive Rebound %	74.2%	65.6%	0.7	71%	median 72.3% 90th pctile 75.9%
Offensive Rebound %	34.4%	25.8%	0.3	31%	median 28.1% 90th pctile 33.7%
Scoring Margin	2	-2	16.8	-471	Median 3 pts, 90th pctile 11 pts.

[boatcapt]

On the season, WLU shoots .753 on freethrows. V Wheeling we shot .571. Had we shot our season average, we would have made 10.54 (rounded to 11) freethrows and scored 3 more points in the game. Since we lost the game by 2 points, shooting our season average on the same number of freethrows would have resulted in WLU claiming a one point W.

Yes, clearly our freethrow shooting cost us this game.

[boatcapt]

This post isn't necessarily apropos of yesterday's game. Yesterday's game was what it was. There really wasn't anything on the line except for pride in beating your rival (and that's nothing to sneeze at, for sure). But the Regional was gonna go through Erie regardless. The conference championship and top seed in the MEC tourney was already sewn up. Make better than 50% of your free throws and maybe the result is different, but it was what it was.

That aside, this post is sparked by something an IUP poster said on the IUP thread coupled with something Boat had been saying 3 months ago. If you recall, Boat asked at the beginning of the season what was going to be different about this Coker roster wearing black and gold instead of blue and gold? This was, for all intents and purposes, the very same team that went 19-10 in Conference Carolinas last year. Boat asked why we thought the results would be different in a Hilltopper jersey. But perhaps to Boat's surprise, it was different. It's a team that went 24-4 in the MEC with virtually the same roster that went 19-10 last year. So what happened?

I'm wondering about two possibilities (one that's complimentary and one that it's a little more worrisome):

1. Possibility #1 is that the ASRC is a legit, measurable home court advantage. Coker went only 7-5 at home last year playing in their empty gym. West Liberty went 14-0 this year playing in front of 1000 people every night at the ASRC. Maybe that actually makes a difference. There are very few atmospheres in the MEC that feel like a rocking ASRC. So perhaps Boat's question failed to account for the legitimacy of the ASRC home court advantage (which meant a +7 win difference in the home record). That's a fun possibility to think about: ASRC as "sixth man."

2. But the more worrisome possibility is the thought that was prompted by the IUP poster. IUPalum was lamenting what he called the lack of "killers" on the IUP team. Too many nice guys; not enough stone cold "killers" (figuratively speaking) that resulted in IUP getting bullied by Gannon and Cal this week. Like IUP, WLU has always prided itself on having a roster full of said "killers." Nobody was as stone cold as Dalton Bolon. That guy genuinely HATED to lose. That was the WLU way for a long time. Quality humans for sure (like the current Dr. Alex Falk, Dr. CJ Hester, etc.), but also "killers" 'between the black lines.

But if you look at this year's roster and had to rank the "killers" in order of intensity, the order probably looks something like:

Myles Montgomery
Dante Spadafora
Cam Williams
Then maybe you get down to an Aidan Davis or Landon Butler.

But are you noticing a pattern? Montgomery, Spadafora, Williams, & Davis were all Howlett's recruits (and Howlett definitely spent some time working on the Butler family too). Howlett was the Chief Killer for sure (that dude never smiled once when talking basketball), and as a result he consistently recruited "killers." The Coker fellas seem like really nice dudes, but they also don't seem to have a lot of "killer" in them. Hayden Abdullah seems like a really nice kid that would be pleasant to have lunch with, but he isn't scaring anyone. Could that be what accounts for a +7 win difference? Pair Coker's talent for scoring last year with Howlett's stone cold "killers" and that's how you get 7 more wins?

This explanation for how Coker's roster outperformed themselves once they changed jerseys is the more worrisome explanation of the two because this is obviously the last year WLU gets to reap the benefits of a Howlett recruiting class (in fact, WLU will now have to recruit against Howlett for the same types of guys). And let's not even get into the portal mess that will have us all wondering which guys we get to keep in a few weeks. (Please stay, Cam, we need you.)

It's true that Lamberti himself was a really intense dude when he played (he was the dude in the middle of the pre-game huddle firing everyone up when he was on the team--the role currently filled by Myles Montgomery), so we can only hope that he'll have just as much eye for recruiting "killers" as Howlett did.

I think both 1 and 2 are correct. The ARSC does result in a meaningful bump in performance (as does wearing the "brand") and we do lack the killer instinct of a typical WLU team. My fear is that 2 can result in a decline in 1. The more time that goes by where we lack that killer mentality, the more we will fall off in one.

This years squad has turned out to be about as good as we could have hoped in the W/L category given the late start and the number of defections Howlett took with him (by the way Howlett and his collection of WLU defectors finished 7-24 on the season). But they where no where near as good as the preseason hype machine made them out to be (remember the we've got seven players that are .legit .400 3 point shooters?). But I would add that the story of WLU is not written by regular season performance...It is determined by post-season performance. While most teams would be over the moon about finishing 24-4 with a regular season title, we aren't. If we where to lose before the finals in the MEC Tourney then lose in the first round of the NCAA Tourney, the season will be thought of as a failure. Conversely, if we whin the MEC Tourney then cap the year with a NC game appearance, we will think of the season as a success.

I would say the influence of Howlett on this team is largely over. When you take the top 5 players with you when you leave and leave only 1 player with any playing time, it's hard to argue that this is a team the Howlett built.

[Columbuseer]

FYI
MEC Tourney info
Wheeling #3 seed
WLU plays at 6 PM on Friday against winner of D&E and Point Park

https://hilltoppersports.com/news/20...nco-arena.aspx

Congrats to Devin Hoehn in winning CIAA against his former team Bluefield.
Looks like there will be 3 teams in the Atlantic Regional running "the system" (only a few years ago, some PSAC fans had called it a gimmick That statement did not age well. LOL).

[bballfan03]

Not about WLU, but does anyone know anything about situation with Michael Montanto as Frostburg? He had been on bench with a splint on his hand and a few weeks ago the commentator said the coach stated the plan was for him to return for the conference tournament. I didnt even see him on the bench today. Hes still on roster though.

[gman16506]

Not about WLU, but does anyone know anything about situation with Michael Montanto as Frostburg? He had been on bench with a splint on his hand and a few weeks ago the commentator said the coach stated the plan was for him to return for the conference tournament. I didnt even see him on the bench today. Hes still on roster though.

Given the history of Mike Montano, it had me wondering..........

[TheMadLibs]

Not about WLU, but does anyone know anything about situation with Michael Montanto as Frostburg? He had been on bench with a splint on his hand and a few weeks ago the commentator said the coach stated the plan was for him to return for the conference tournament. I didnt even see him on the bench today. Hes still on roster though.

Broke wrist in late December

[Columbuseer]

Fyi

muldowney and Montgomery all mec team

https://hilltoppersports.com/news/20...e-mention.aspx

[bballfan03]

Broke wrist in late December

Yeah I know, but why is he not even on the bench?

[bballfan03]

Given the history of Mike Montano, it had me wondering..........

Yeah, he was on bench with a brace moat of season and then last few weeks - gone

[Scrub]

Woof. That was ugly. I guess the March mantra holds: survive and advance.

[boatcapt]

Woof. That was ugly. I guess the March mantra holds: survive and advance.

WOW, that was a pitiful showing. Good thing we where playing the #8 seed! 20% from 3...overall shooting .375 where both season lows and .636 on FT's is the second lowes of the season.

[bballfan03]

Given the history of Mike Montano, it had me wondering..........

According to Rivals, Montano will transfer from Frostburg State, with 2 years eligibility left (assuming he applied for a redshirt this year then).