PSAC WEST

[Scrub]

Re: PSAC WEST

All 4 of the home teams have beaten their opponent at home already. Three of them will be looking for a 3 game sweep. Only WC and Ship split.

I believe statistically when teams meet for a third time and one team has already won twice, the undefeated team overwhelmingly wins the third meeting as well

Do you think so? Isn't there a well-worn talking point among analysts on national media that it's incredibly difficult to beat a team three times in one season? I'm not necessarily questioning your assertion or your memory, as it may be the case that talent disparity in DII causes for different trends. But you often hear from national media outlets about the DI game that they think it's very hard to beat someone three times, so it would seem the underdogs have a slight edge in those 3rd time match-ups. I'm honestly not sure.

But to be totally honest, I don't suspect IUP, Mercy, or ESU to struggle at all tonight. So again, maybe the "conventional wisdom" applied to DI teams isn't applicable to DII. [Just thinking aloud here--sorry for the ramble]

[IUPbigINDIANS]

Re: PSAC WEST

Do you think so? Isn't there a well-worn talking point among analysts on national media that it's incredibly difficult to beat a team three times in one season? I'm not necessarily questioning your assertion or your memory, as it may be the case that talent disparity in DII causes for different trends. But you often hear from national media outlets about the DI game that they think it's very hard to beat someone three times, so it would seem the underdogs have a slight edge in those 3rd time match-ups. I'm honestly not sure.

But to be totally honest, I don't suspect IUP, Mercy, or ESU to struggle at all tonight. So again, maybe the "conventional wisdom" applied to DI teams isn't applicable to DII. [Just thinking aloud here--sorry for the ramble]

It's almost unfathomable to me that Slippery Rock has defeated Mercyhurst twice. Can they do it again tomorrow night? Who knows. If Micah Till returns, what kind of shape will he be in? Of course, recall SRU beat Merchyhurst once without him. The Rock is very tough in Morrow. Strange things happen in there.

For the West to have the best showing this weekend Mercyhurst needs to win. ESU will clobber SRU if they play again.

[IUPbigINDIANS]

Re: PSAC WEST

Of the four games tomorrow, I'd rank them in this order as the road team having the best odds of winning:

1. Shippensburg - Red Raiders are every bit as talented as WCU and tend to rise up under the bright lights.
2. Mercyhurst - Lakers are due in this series -- and are just better
3. Kutztown - Golden Bears went in to a surprisingly packed Millersville last night and dropped the hammer the final 10 minutes. Anthony Lee can explode.
4. UPJ - Mountain Cats are 2-9 on the road and the KCAC crowd will again tee off on Josh Wise. Last visit he was mentally gone by halftime. UPJ just doesn't have the depth to pull this upset.

[Golden89]

Re: PSAC WEST

One of my favorite examples of it actually happening was in 2003. The IUP men had lost to Cal both regular season games ... then went down to a jam-packed Hamer Hall and beat the Vulcans. Gary Edwards had a knack for such moments.

One of my least favorite examples is the fourth meeting between recently-crowned PSAC champion Gannon and Slippery Rock in the NCAA's at West Liberty.

[Golden89]

Re: PSAC WEST

Of the four games tomorrow, I'd rank them in this order as the road team having the best odds of winning:

1. Shippensburg - Red Raiders are every bit as talented as WCU and tend to rise up under the bright lights.
2. Mercyhurst - Lakers are due in this series -- and are just better
3. Kutztown - Golden Bears went in to a surprisingly packed Millersville last night and dropped the hammer the final 10 minutes. Anthony Lee can explode.
4. UPJ - Mountain Cats are 2-9 on the road and the KCAC crowd will again tee off on Josh Wise. Last visit he was mentally gone by halftime. UPJ just doesn't have the depth to pull this upset.

I probably agree with these -- the gap between Mercyhurst and Ship is razor-thin. How the heck did Slippery Rock go 16-5 in the PSAC? Or 16-3 against teams not named Gannon? Based on what I've seen, Mercyhurst is the far better team. And UPJ is a distant fourth -- IUP also has last year's upset quarterfinal loss against Edinboro to prevent complacency.

[IUPTrackMan]

Re: PSAC WEST

Do you think so? Isn't there a well-worn talking point among analysts on national media that it's incredibly difficult to beat a team three times in one season? I'm not necessarily questioning your assertion or your memory, as it may be the case that talent disparity in DII causes for different trends. But you often hear from national media outlets about the DI game that they think it's very hard to beat someone three times, so it would seem the underdogs have a slight edge in those 3rd time match-ups. I'm honestly not sure.

But to be totally honest, I don't suspect IUP, Mercy, or ESU to struggle at all tonight. So again, maybe the "conventional wisdom" applied to DI teams isn't applicable to DII. [Just thinking aloud here--sorry for the ramble]

Here is one source


http://coachbobwalsh.com/2015/03/02/...-team-3-times/

[IUPbigINDIANS]

Re: PSAC WEST

Here is one source


http://coachbobwalsh.com/2015/03/02/...-team-3-times/

Interesting topic. Who do you feel has the psychological advantage ... the team that went 0-2 or the team that went 2-0?

One hand says the 0-2 is likely more relaxed, hungrier and has nothing to lose. The 2-0 could be arrogant and perhaps caught off guard.

I think the nature of the first two losses plays a big key, too. In the IUP vs UPJ example, UPJ gave IUP all it could handle up there a couple weeks ago. Granted, the game here was a wipeout.

[Scrub]

Re: PSAC WEST

Here is one source


http://coachbobwalsh.com/2015/03/02/...-team-3-times/

That's a good find. I wonder if stats like that bear out in other examples as well? I think the guy's quote about "it's not that hard if you're better than them" is what we likely see most often here in these DII tourney games. IUP is just plain better, so it shouldn't be that hard for them to take care of business.

[IUPbigINDIANS]

Re: PSAC WEST

Things get pretty serious tonight. A few teams will likely be turning in their uniforms.


Mercyhurst at Slippery Rock -- Somehow, the Rock is 2-0 against the Lakers this season. SRU beat them with Micah Till -- and without. Times change and little streaks end, however. Slippery Rock is reeling the past two weeks and enters tonight on a two-game skid -- most recently the victim of an 18-point trouncing by Gannon (in Morrow Field House). Go back two games more, and SRU barely survived lowly Clarion (61-60) and Edinboro (81-79). The initial element of surprise sans Till is now gone, and all logic says the Rock is in serious trouble tonight against a Lakers team fresh off two blowout victories. With reports surfacing Till will again sit out tonight, it's hard to find any reason SRU can win this game. That said, some teams just have another teams' number. Morrow is famous for odd occurrences. However, the third time's the charm for Mercyhurst. Lakers win. Big. Mercyhurst -14

Shippensburg at West Chester -- One could say the stakes get no bigger than in this one. The loser could very well (likely) be done for the season. These two had an even split this year with the home team winning each game. No surprise there, as either rarely loses in their building. WCU coach Damien Blair holds an 8-5 career record versus Shippensburg head man Chris Fite. Take away Fite's first years of completely building the program, and the series is pretty even. The one constant has been the home team typically wins. West Chester rarely loses at home -- to anybody. When Hollinger Field House is humming, it's a very tough environment. Tonight will be one of those nights. The Red Raiders have the talent and shooting to keep this close for probably 38 minutes. The Rams, however, have a little too much size and depth. Add to it the momentum from the large, loud crowd and it should spell a victory for West Chester. It won't be easy, but the Rams can pack their bags to head West. WCU -5

Kutztown at East Stroudsburg -- Two long-time rivals square off tonight -- both on very different paths. Kutztown, which was swept this season by the Warriors, is a very streaky -- and, perhaps, sneaky -- team. They've looked great certain nights. And, awful others. Minus a slow start to the season, ESU has been extremely consistent. The Golden Bears aren't likely a candidate to make a late run, but they certainly can win a one-off game. It all starts with senior star guard Anthony Lee, who went for 23 and 36 in the two ESU losses. He's going to get his, but the only way Kutztown can win this game is if his supporting staff rises up. In particular, the East Stroudsburg post dominated the first two games. Moe Williams and Josh Townsend have to have career nights for KU to win this game. Townsend is capable as he showed in the final 10 minutes at Millersville 48 hours ago. It's a tall task, as ESU's incredible freshman Ryan Smith (6'10", 240 lbs) and ultra-athletic Josh Williams (6'7") pose all sorts of problems under the basket. But, that's Kutztown's only chance. The first meeting was close (10 points). The second was not (20 points). The third? Kutztown had a spark at Millersville -- and, they've got nothing to lose. Morale is a dangerous thing. Expect a close one, but when it's all said and done, ESU just has too much -- talent, depth, size. The Golden Bears fight, but ESU wins in the final 5 minutes. East Stroudsburg -8

UPJ at IUP -- This game seems to be a near-yearly occurrence in the second round. Not only do these two neighbors square off a lot, but UPJ plays in both of IUP's early-season tournaments. No team aside from IUP has played more games inside the KCAC. The players know each other well. The coaches know each other well. On paper, it's hard to justify UPJ having a legit shot at winning. IUP is an upperclassmen-laden team full of big-name, highly-decorated players. UPJ is, too. Just not yet. The Mountain Cats will be a major force next season as almost their entire roster returns (and rising star guard Drew Magestro returns after missing this whole season with an injury). As UPJ showed in Johnstown recently, it can play with IUP. IUP showed something, too, however. It showed how to shut down star freshman John Paul Krompka (see: Chucky Humphries). Once the switch was made, the tide shifted greatly in that game -- with IUP eventually pulling away. UPJ's road struggles are well-documented. During this whole season, the KCAC crowd tormented no player more than UPJ star guard Josh Wise -- and he took the bait. The crowd will be fishing for Wise again tonight. If he bites, UPJ has no chance. Expect the Mountain Cats to hang around for awhile. Perhaps, even 30 minutes. IUP just has too much in this match-up. Too much size, depth, talent and experience. Crimson Hawks get a test -- but also a win. IUP -12

[IUPbigINDIANS]

Re: PSAC WEST

A look back in time:

2018-19 PSAC Coaches' Preseason Poll

1. IUP (8)
2. Slippery Rock
3. Gannon
4. Mercyhurst (1)
5. California
6. UPJ
7. Edinboro
8. Seton Hill
9. Clarion

[boatcapt]

Re: PSAC WEST

Do you think so? Isn't there a well-worn talking point among analysts on national media that it's incredibly difficult to beat a team three times in one season? I'm not necessarily questioning your assertion or your memory, as it may be the case that talent disparity in DII causes for different trends. But you often hear from national media outlets about the DI game that they think it's very hard to beat someone three times, so it would seem the underdogs have a slight edge in those 3rd time match-ups. I'm honestly not sure.

But to be totally honest, I don't suspect IUP, Mercy, or ESU to struggle at all tonight. So again, maybe the "conventional wisdom" applied to DI teams isn't applicable to DII. [Just thinking aloud here--sorry for the ramble]

I'd say it's more law of averages than anything physical or psychological. Kind of like flipping three straight heads. Individual flips are 1 in 2 (.500) but the chances of doing it three straight times are 1 in 8 (.125). Obviously a basketball game is not as random as a coin flip and there are a lot of variables, but two relatively even teams are running up against some pretty long odds of winning three straight games against the other.

[EyeoftheHawk]

[IUPbigINDIANS]

Re: PSAC WEST


There is a little side note to this tournament. If IUP were to win tonight, the Crimson Hawks will then host the lowest remaining East seed on Saturday.

In other words the bracket would be re-shuffled tonight if IUP and Kutztown were to win. In the likely event ESU wins (along with IUP), IUP would then play the Ship/WCU winner and the initial bracket remains the same.

[Chuck Norris]

Re: PSAC WEST

There is a little side note to this tournament. If IUP were to win tonight, the Crimson Hawks will then host the lowest remaining East seed on Saturday.

In other words the bracket would be re-shuffled tonight if IUP and Kutztown were to win. In the likely event ESU wins (along with IUP), IUP would then play the Ship/WCU winner and the initial bracket remains the same.

[IUPbigINDIANS]

Re: PSAC WEST

Correct. I still try and block that game out. Recall IUP was up at the end of OT and it appeared over ... and then WCU hit that buzzer-beater. Awful memory. LOL.

Two years ago at the KCAC recall they played the de-facto title game on Saturday when IUP played Shippensburg (another IUP OT loss). What a thriller that game was ... Sleva at his finest along with a massive IUP comeback in the second half (20-some points if I remember correctly).