Atlantic Regional

[IUPalum]

Re: Atlantic Regional

IUP isn't safe BUT them staying at 5 meansthey have "wiggle" room. A win tonight is a must still in my opinion.

[IUPbigINDIANS]

Re: Atlantic Regional

WCU blows out Ship

ESU over Kutztown

[ctrabs74]

Re: Atlantic Regional

My hunch is whichever team wins the IUP/Boro ladies game tonight will jump in to the No. 1 spot in the final regional ranking. It's a huge SOS boost by playing one another.

That SOS boost is only counted once for rankings purposes, as I recall. Still, there's no question that those divisional games help those rankings.

[ctrabs74]

Re: Atlantic Regional

My hunch is whichever team wins the IUP/Boro ladies game tonight will jump in to the No. 1 spot in the final regional ranking. It's a huge SOS boost by playing one another.

WBB Regional Rankings

1. Virginia Union
2. IUP
3. Edinboro
4. Glenville State
5. Virginia State
6. Cal
7. West Chester
8. Seton Hill
9. Chowan
10. Notre Dame (OH)

Key Scores from Tonight

IUP 67, Edinboro 53
Cal 68, Seton Hill 54
West Chester 79, Shippensburg 65
Virginia Union 51, Elizabeth City State 43
Bowie State 68, Virginia State 56
Lincoln 71, Chowan 68
Glenville State 105, Shepherd 87
NDC 88, West Liberty 80

[ctrabs74]

Re: Atlantic Regional

I agree with the rankings. It will be interesting to see ESU iup rankings in terms of sos or head to head.

From Section 2.4 of the NCAA D2 Women's Basketball Pre-Championship Manual:

The following required selection criteria shall be employed by a governing sports committee in selecting participants for NCAA championships competition:
Sport-Specific Selection Criteria


By the numbers (records do not include Wednesday night's games); all data via NCAA Atlantic Region spreadsheet (accessible via NCAA.com website; scroll to the bottom of the regional rankings page and click on Atlantic Region, since it's a pain in the neck to try and provide the direct link to this PDF page):

D2 In Region Record: VUU 21-2, EU 22-2
D2 Overall Record: VUU 23-2, EU 22-2
D2 Overall SOS: VUU .535, EU .517
D2 In-Region SOS: VUU .530, EU .516
Last 10 Games: VUU 9-1, EU 9-1
Performance Indicator: VUU 16.880, EU 16.208

With Edinboro's loss to IUP tonight, it almost renders this point moot, barring a Fighting Scots' win in the PSAC championship game. But, that gives you an idea as to the criteria that the regional committees use to determine the regional rankings.

[ctrabs74]

Re: Atlantic Regional

MBB Regional Rankings

1. West Liberty
2. Virginia State
3. Shippensburg
4. West Chester
5. IUP
6. Kutztown
7. East Stroudsburg
8. Wheeling Jesuit
9. Fairmont State
10. Gannon

Key Results from Wednesday night:

West Liberty 112, Notre Dame (OH) 68
Virginia State 75, Bowie State 65
West Chester 78, Shippensburg 59
IUP 77, Edinboro 69
East Stroudsburg 102, Kutztown 91
Wheeling Jesuit 90, Urbana 65
Fairmont State 71, WV Wesleyan 68
Gannon 73, Clarion 50

[IUPbigINDIANS]

Re: Atlantic Regional

This Wheeling Jesuit at West Liberty game has all the sudden taken on new meaning. That's two straight weeks WJ isn't getting much love in the rankings. If WL wins Saturday and WJ loses again in the MEC Tournament ... it's possible they could be on the deep fringe.


Side note to the above post: Gannon is now actually No. 10 (not SRU). Gannon hosts SRU this Saturday.

Also of note from last night: IUP now has a 21-6 'in-region' record (21-7 overall). Shippensburg's loss dropped it to 19-6 overall. Kutztown also dropped to 18-6.

West Chester has likely jumped to No. 3. IUP possibly bumps ahead of Shippensburg to the No.4 spot. Kutztown and East Stroudsburg likely swapped positions.

Of course it will all change 3 more times by the final ranking / selection show.

[jrshooter]

Re: Atlantic Regional

Ship deserves what it gets right now. It went 0-3 on the road against the other three PSAC East contenders.

[IUP24]

Re: Atlantic Regional

I'm not sure it really matters in a year like this where you get seeded. With it appearing as though the PSAC is going to get 4-5 teams in, they've essentially all played each other and have had a mixed bag of results. Everybody has lost to somebody. Nobody has swept that whole group of 4-5 teams. Even 6-7 if you want to include SRU and Gannon (but I don't see any scenario where either get in as an at-large). You're likely going to play a PSAC team in the first round. There's a chance you play another one in the second round. All roads lead to West Liberty. The only advantage to the seed is that you could potentially be on the 2-7/3-6 side of the bracket to avoid playing West Liberty.

Heck, I would rather see IUP be a 7 seed and get another shot at VSU than be a 4 seed and have to play Shippensburg and then WLU. I guess my overall point is that aside from the team that hosts this year, there really isn't a team you would "hope to avoid" based on your initial seed.

This is a strange year. There really isn't a truly dominant team that's just that much overall better than everyone else. West Liberty will likely win it, but if this regional was played 10 times, I wouldn't pick them to win it all 10.

[IUPbigINDIANS]

Re: Atlantic Regional

I'm not ready to go that far. They are 2-1 against FSU and WJU. Let's not pass out trophies yet. I hope IUP gets a crack at them. Everybody is 0-0 next Sunday.

[IUPbigINDIANS]

Re: Atlantic Regional

Obviously those of us in the know ... know that Wheeling Jesuit and Fairmont State are very high quality teams and programs.

That said, the rankings aren't giving them much love so far.

Looking a little closer at each of their resumes:


Wheeling Jesuit (22-5)

Best wins: Gannon, Fairmont State

Losses: Fairmont State, Virginia State, West Liberty, Shepherd, UVA-Wise (13-14) ----> one 'bad' loss as defined by a team under .500

Record against regionally ranked teams (once ranked always ranked): 2-3

SOS anchors: Urbana (4-23), Notre Dame (5-22), Glenville State (7-20), West Virginia Wesleyan (7-20)

Win that doesn't count toward postseason criteria: D3 Carlow

Current Regional Ranking: No. 8
Remaining games: (at) West Liberty

Best Path to the Regional: Defeat West Liberty this Saturday to wrap the regular season. From there it won't be long until they run in to either WL or Fairmont again next week. If WJ loses to WL and goes 1-1 in the MEC tournament ... things get interesting.

---------------------------------------------------------

Fairmont State (20-7)

Best wins: Wheeling Jesuit, Le Moyne (out of region), West Liberty

Losses: Findlay, West Virgina State (12-14), West Liberty, IUP, Wheeling Jesuit, UVA-Wise (13-14), Charleston ---> two 'bad' losses as defined by teams under .500

Record against regionally ranked teams: 2-4 -----> Le Moyne falls under 'out of region' and does not count in this metric

SOS Anchors: Millersville (10-17), California (10-17), WVW (7-20), Glenville State (7-20), Notre Dame (5-22), Urbana (4-23)

Current Regional Ranking: 9

Remaining Game: (at) Shepherd

Best Path to the Regional: Defeat Shepherd and make a deep run (finals) in MEC Tournament -- and get some help.

[Horror Child]

Re: Atlantic Regional

Obviously those of us in the know ... know that Wheeling Jesuit and Fairmont State are very high quality teams and programs.

That said, the rankings aren't giving them much love so far.

So they should be ahead of whom?

[IUPbigINDIANS]

Re: Atlantic Regional

So they should be ahead of whom?

Good question. Based on the criteria used, the breakdown above shows some of the deficiencies in their resumes.

Granted, those published 'Round 2' rankings from yesterday have already changed with Kutztown and Shippensburg both losing last night.


My personal opinion: They are both very good teams. But, there are a lot of very good teams ahead of them, too. Wheeling wins at West Liberty on Saturday, along with Kutz and Ship losing last night, they will make a jump.


Gannon and Slippery Rock are interesting. Neither has a shot at an at-large bid (as of today) but that possibly could change for whomever wins their big showdown this Saturday. Odds are pretty good they will then play each other again this coming Wednesday. If SRU were to go 2-0 against Gannon (or vice versa) they'd add two more 'regionally ranked wins' to their formula.

It's fun to watch it all play out. All you have to do is get in ...

[IUPbigINDIANS]

Re: Atlantic Regional

Official (2nd) Regional Rankings and what each has done since they were released:

1. West Liberty - Won at Notre Dame (OH)
2. Virginia State - Won at Bowie State
3. Shippensburg - Lost at WCU
4. West Chester Won (Ship)
5. IUP - Won (Edinboro)
6. Kutztown - Won (East Stroudsburg)
7. East Stroudsburg - Lost at Kutztown
8. Wheeling Jesuit - Won at Urbana
9. Fairmont State - Won at WVW
10. Gannon - Won (Clarion)


Narrowed-down Contenders List with Current Records (number of D3 games, which do not count in regional qualification metric, notated ... in some cases this changes D2 winning percentages a good bit ... i.e. Slippery Rock is currently 20-7 but has (2) D3 wins ... thus its regional resume record is actually 18-7 ... this is when you see those games come back to bite in some cases)

Edinboro was eliminated from the below list. The loser of SRU/Gannon tomorrow will also be eliminated from the 'at-large' conversation.


MEC

West Liberty (25-1)

Wheeling Jesuit (22-5) - D3 (1)

Fairmont State (20-7) -- Le Moyne considered out of region ... counts toward overall D2 record but not in-region record or in-region SOS


PSAC

West Chester (20-5) - D3 (1)

Shippensburg (20-6) - D3 (1)

Kutztown (19-6) - D3 (1)

East Stroudsburg (20-5)

IUP (21-7) - Ferris State considered out of region ... counts toward overall D2 record but not in-region record or in-region SOS

Gannon (19-8) - Northern Michigan considered out of region ... counts toward overall D2 record but not in-region record or in-region SOS

Slippery Rock (20-7) - D3 (2)

CIAA

Virginia State (22-3) - D3 (1)

Shaw (19-8)

[jrshooter]

Re: Atlantic Regional

I know I had a small sample size, but West Liberty and Fairmont both passed the eye test when I saw them. They were playing a much more frenetic game than the PSAC, and playing it pretty smoothly.